A look into the future of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe: an expert consultation.

How will the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic develop in the coming months and years? Based on an expert survey, we examine key aspects that are likely to influence the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe. The challenges and developments will strongly depend on the progress of national and global vaccination programs, the emergence and spread of variants of concern (VOCs), and public responses to non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). In the short term, many people remain unvaccinated, VOCs continue to emerge and spread, and mobility and population mixing are expected to increase. Therefore, lifting restrictions too much and too early risk another damaging wave. This challenge remains despite the reduced opportunities for transmission given vaccination progress and reduced indoor mixing in summer 2021. In autumn 2021, increased indoor activity might accelerate the spread again, whilst a necessary reintroduction of NPIs might be too slow. The incidence may strongly rise again, possibly filling intensive care units, if vaccination levels are not high enough. A moderate, adaptive level of NPIs will thus remain necessary. These epidemiological aspects combined with economic, social, and health-related consequences provide a more holistic perspective on the future of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Prevalence of mutations associated with resistance to macrolides and fluoroquinolones in Mycoplasma genitalium: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Mycoplasma genitalium is now recognised as an important bacterial sexually transmitted infection. We summarised data from studies of mutations associated with macrolide and fluoroquinolone resistance in M genitalium to establish the prevalence of resistance. We also investigated temporal trends in resistance and aimed to establish the association between resistance and geographical location. METHODS: In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched PubMed, Embase, and MEDLINE for studies that included data for the prevalence of mutations associated with macrolide and fluoroquinolone resistance in M genitalium published in any language up to Jan 7, 2019. We defined prevalence as the proportion of M genitalium samples positive for key mutations associated with azithromycin resistance (23S rRNA gene, position 2058 or 2059) or moxifloxacin resistance (S83R, S83I, D87N, or D87Y in parC), or both, among all M genitalium samples that were successfully characterised. We used random-effects meta-analyses to calculate summary estimates of prevalence. Subgroup and meta-regression analyses by WHO region and time period were done. This study was registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42016050370. RESULTS: Overall, 59 studies from 21 countries met the inclusion criteria for our study: 57 studies of macrolide resistance (8966 samples), 25 of fluoroquinolone resistance (4003 samples), and 22 of dual resistance to macrolides and fluoroquinolones (3280 samples). The summary prevalence of mutations associated with macrolide resistance among M genitalium samples was 35·5% (95% CI 28·8-42·5); prevalence increased from 10·0% (95% CI 2·6-20·1%) before 2010, to 51·4% (40·3-62·4%) in 2016-17 (p<0·0001). Prevalence of mutations associated with macrolide resistance was significantly greater in samples in the WHO Western Pacific and Americas regions than in those from the WHO European region. The overall prevalence of mutations associated with fluoroquinolone resistance in M genitalium samples was 7·7% (95% CI 4·5-11·4%). Prevalence did not change significantly over time, but was significantly higher in the Western Pacific region than in the European region. Overall, the prevalence of both mutations associated with macrolide resistance and those associated with fluoroquinolone resistance among M genitalium samples was 2·8% (1·3-4·7%). The prevalence of dual resistance did not change significantly over time, and did not vary significantly by geographical region. INTERPRETATION: Global surveillance and measures to optimise the efficacy of treatments-including resistance-guided strategies, new antimicrobials, and antimicrobial combination approaches-are urgently needed to ensure cure in a high proportion of M genitalium infections and to prevent further spread of resistant strains. FUNDING: Australian National Health and Medical Research Council.

Detection of antibiotic resistance is essential for gonorrhoea point-of-care testing: a mathematical modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Antibiotic resistance is threatening to make gonorrhoea untreatable. Point-of-care (POC) tests that detect resistance promise individually tailored treatment, but might lead to more treatment and higher levels of resistance. We investigate the impact of POC tests on antibiotic-resistant gonorrhoea. METHODS: We used data about the prevalence and incidence of gonorrhoea in men who have sex with men (MSM) and heterosexual men and women (HMW) to calibrate a mathematical gonorrhoea transmission model. With this model, we simulated four clinical pathways for the diagnosis and treatment of gonorrhoea: POC test with (POC+R) and without (POC-R) resistance detection, culture and nucleic acid amplification tests (NAATs). We calculated the proportion of resistant infections and cases averted after 5 years, and compared how fast resistant infections spread in the populations. RESULTS: The proportion of resistant infections after 30 years is lowest for POC+R (median MSM: 0.18%, HMW: 0.12%), and increases for culture (MSM: 1.19%, HMW: 0.13%), NAAT (MSM: 100%, HMW: 99.27%), and POC-R (MSM: 100%, HMW: 99.73%). Per 100 000 persons, NAAT leads to 36 366 (median MSM) and 1228 (median HMW) observed cases after 5 years. Compared with NAAT, POC+R averts more cases after 5 years (median MSM: 3353, HMW: 118). POC tests that detect resistance with intermediate sensitivity slow down resistance spread more than NAAT. POC tests with very high sensitivity for the detection of resistance are needed to slow down resistance spread more than by using culture. CONCLUSIONS: POC with high sensitivity to detect antibiotic resistance can keep gonorrhoea treatable longer than culture or NAAT. POC tests without reliable resistance detection should not be introduced because they can accelerate the spread of antibiotic-resistant gonorrhoea.

Molecular tests for the detection of antimicrobial resistant Neisseria gonorrhoeae: when, where, and how to use?

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Molecular methods for the diagnosis of Neisseria gonorrhoeae are replacing bacterial culture in many settings. This review focuses on recent progress in the development of molecular tests to detect resistant N. gonorrhoeae both to enhance surveillance and to guide decisions about individual patient management. RECENT FINDINGS: Assays to enhance surveillance have been developed to detect determinants of resistance for all antibiotics used as first-line gonorrhoea treatment, or to detect specific 'superbug' strains, but few have been applied in clinical practice. The most advanced strategy relevant to individual case management is to identify ciprofloxacin-sensitive strains so that unnecessary use of ceftriaxone can be avoided. Cross-reactivity with pharyngeal commensal Neisseria species reduces specificity and is a challenge for many assays. SUMMARY: Progress with laboratory-based molecular tests to detect gonococcal resistance is being made but substantial challenges remain. No laboratory-based assay has been subjected to a field evaluation and no assay so far can be used as a point-of-care test. Given the threat of antimicrobial resistance, now is the time to exploit the molecular technologies used for diagnosis and to invest in the development of molecular gonococcal resistance tests that can be implemented for public health good.

Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of traditional and new partner notification technologies for curable sexually transmitted infections: observational study, systematic reviews and mathematical modelling.

BACKGROUND: Partner notification is essential to the comprehensive case management of sexually transmitted infections. Systematic reviews and mathematical modelling can be used to synthesise information about the effects of new interventions to enhance the outcomes of partner notification. OBJECTIVE: To study the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of traditional and new partner notification technologies for curable sexually transmitted infections (STIs). DESIGN: Secondary data analysis of clinical audit data; systematic reviews of randomised controlled trials (MEDLINE, EMBASE and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials) published from 1 January 1966 to 31 August 2012 and of studies of health-related quality of life (HRQL) [MEDLINE, EMBASE, ISI Web of Knowledge, NHS Economic Evaluation Database (NHS EED), Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects (DARE) and Health Technology Assessment (HTA)] published from 1 January 1980 to 31 December 2011; static models of clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness; and dynamic modelling studies to improve parameter estimation and examine effectiveness. SETTING: General population and genitourinary medicine clinic attenders. PARTICIPANTS: Heterosexual women and men. INTERVENTIONS: Traditional partner notification by patient or provider referral, and new partner notification by expedited partner therapy (EPT) or its UK equivalent, accelerated partner therapy (APT). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Population prevalence; index case reinfection; and partners treated per index case. RESULTS: Enhanced partner therapy reduced reinfection in index cases with curable STIs more than simple patient referral [risk ratio (RR) 0.71; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.56 to 0.89]. There are no randomised trials of APT. The median number of partners treated for chlamydia per index case in UK clinics was 0.60. The number of partners needed to treat to interrupt transmission of chlamydia was lower for casual than for regular partners. In dynamic model simulations, >10% of partners are chlamydia positive with look-back periods of up to 18 months. In the presence of a chlamydia screening programme that reduces population prevalence, treatment of current partners achieves most of the additional reduction in prevalence attributable to partner notification. Dynamic model simulations show that cotesting and treatment for chlamydia and gonorrhoea reduce the prevalence of both STIs. APT has a limited additional effect on prevalence but reduces the rate of index case reinfection. Published quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) weights were of insufficient quality to be used in a cost-effectiveness study of partner notification in this project. Using an intermediate outcome of cost per infection diagnosed, doubling the efficacy of partner notification from 0.4 to 0.8 partners treated per index case was more cost-effective than increasing chlamydia screening coverage. CONCLUSIONS: There is evidence to support the improved clinical effectiveness of EPT in reducing index case reinfection. In a general heterosexual population, partner notification identifies new infected cases but the impact on chlamydia prevalence is limited. Partner notification to notify casual partners might have a greater impact than for regular partners in genitourinary clinic populations. Recommendations for future research are (1) to conduct randomised controlled trials using biological outcomes of the effectiveness of APT and of methods to increase testing for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and STIs after APT; (2) collection of HRQL data should be a priority to determine QALYs associated with the sequelae of curable STIs; and (3) standardised parameter sets for curable STIs should be developed for mathematical models of STI transmission that are used for policy-making. FUNDING: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Disclosure, discrimination and desire: experiences of Black and South Asian gay men in Britain.

Using findings from a qualitative investigation based on in-depth email interviews with 47 Black and South Asian gay men in Britain, this paper explores the cross-cutting identities and discourses in relation to being both gay and from an ethnic minority background. Taking an intersectional approach, detailed accounts of identity negotiation, cultural pressures, experiences of discrimination and exclusion and the relationship between minority ethnic gay men and mainstream White gay culture are presented and explored. The major findings common to both groups were: cultural barriers limiting disclosure of sexuality to family and wider social networks; experiences of discrimination by White gay men that included exclusion as well as objectification; a lack of positive gay role models and imagery relating to men from minority ethnic backgrounds. Among South Asian gay men, a major theme was regret at being unable to fulfil family expectations regarding marriage and children, while among Black gay men, there was a strong belief that same-sex behaviour subverted cultural notions related to how masculinity is configured. The paper concludes by highlighting the importance of social location, particularly education and income, when examining the intersection of ethnicity and sexuality in future research.