RESUMO
Antimicrobial resistance is a global threat. As "proof-of-concept," we employed a system-based approach to identify patient, bacterial, and drug variables contributing to mortality in patients with carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae (CRKp) bloodstream infections exposed to colistin (COL) and ceftazidime-avibactam (CAZ/AVI) as mono- or combination therapies. Patients (n = 49) and CRKp isolates (n = 22) were part of the Consortium on Resistance Against Carbapenems in Klebsiella and other Enterobacteriaceae (CRACKLE-1), a multicenter, observational, prospective study of patients with carbapenem-resistant Enterobacterales (CRE) conducted between 2011 and 2016. Pharmacodynamic activity of mono- and combination drug concentrations was evaluated over 24 h using in vitro static time-kill assays. Bacterial growth and killing dynamics were estimated with a mechanism-based model. Random Forest was used to rank variables important for predicting 30-day mortality. Isolates exposed to COL+CAZ/AVI had enhanced early bacterial killing compared to CAZ/AVI alone and fewer incidences of regrowth compared to COL and CAZ/AVI. The mean coefficient of determination (R2) for the observed versus predicted bacterial counts was 0.86 (range: 0.75 - 0.95). Bacterial subpopulation susceptibilities and drug mechanistic synergy were essential to describe bacterial killing and growth dynamics. The combination of clinical (hypotension), bacterial (IncR plasmid, aadA2, and sul3) and drug (KC50) variables were most predictive of 30-day mortality. This proof-of-concept study combined clinical, bacterial, and drug variables in a unified model to evaluate clinical outcomes.