Evaluation of an intervention targeted with predictive analytics to prevent readmissions in an integrated health system: observational study.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the associations between a care coordination intervention (the Transitions Program) targeted to patients after hospital discharge and 30 day readmission and mortality in a large, integrated healthcare system. DESIGN: Observational study. SETTING: 21 hospitals operated by Kaiser Permanente Northern California. PARTICIPANTS: 1 539 285 eligible index hospital admissions corresponding to 739 040 unique patients from June 2010 to December 2018. 411 507 patients were discharged post-implementation of the Transitions Program; 80 424 (19.5%) of these patients were at medium or high predicted risk and were assigned to receive the intervention after discharge. INTERVENTION: Patients admitted to hospital were automatically assigned to be followed by the Transitions Program in the 30 days post-discharge if their predicted risk of 30 day readmission or mortality was greater than 25% on the basis of electronic health record data. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Non-elective hospital readmissions and all cause mortality in the 30 days after hospital discharge. RESULTS: Difference-in-differences estimates indicated that the intervention was associated with significantly reduced odds of 30 day non-elective readmission (adjusted odds ratio 0.91, 95% confidence interval 0.89 to 0.93; absolute risk reduction 95% confidence interval -2.5%, -3.1% to -2.0%) but not with the odds of 30 day post-discharge mortality (1.00, 0.95 to 1.04). Based on the regression discontinuity estimate, the association with readmission was of similar magnitude (absolute risk reduction -2.7%, -3.2% to -2.2%) among patients at medium risk near the risk threshold used for enrollment. However, the regression discontinuity estimate of the association with post-discharge mortality (-0.7% -1.4% to -0.0%) was significant and suggested benefit in this subgroup of patients. CONCLUSIONS: In an integrated health system, the implementation of a comprehensive readmissions prevention intervention was associated with a reduction in 30 day readmission rates. Moreover, there was no association with 30 day post-discharge mortality, except among medium risk patients, where some evidence for benefit was found. Altogether, the study provides evidence to suggest the effectiveness of readmission prevention interventions in community settings, but further research might be required to confirm the findings beyond this setting.

N-gram support vector machines for scalable procedure and diagnosis classification, with applications to clinical free text data from the intensive care unit.

BACKGROUND: Existing risk adjustment models for intensive care unit (ICU) outcomes rely on manual abstraction of patient-level predictors from medical charts. Developing an automated method for abstracting these data from free text might reduce cost and data collection times. OBJECTIVE: To develop a support vector machine (SVM) classifier capable of identifying a range of procedures and diagnoses in ICU clinical notes for use in risk adjustment. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We selected notes from 2001-2008 for 4191 neonatal ICU (NICU) and 2198 adult ICU patients from the MIMIC-II database from the Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center. Using these notes, we developed an implementation of the SVM classifier to identify procedures (mechanical ventilation and phototherapy in NICU notes) and diagnoses (jaundice in NICU and intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) in adult ICU). On the jaundice classification task, we also compared classifier performance using n-gram features to unigrams with application of a negation algorithm (NegEx). RESULTS: Our classifier accurately identified mechanical ventilation (accuracy=0.982, F1=0.954) and phototherapy use (accuracy=0.940, F1=0.912), as well as jaundice (accuracy=0.898, F1=0.884) and ICH diagnoses (accuracy=0.938, F1=0.943). Including bigram features improved performance on the jaundice (accuracy=0.898 vs 0.865) and ICH (0.938 vs 0.927) tasks, and outperformed NegEx-derived unigram features (accuracy=0.898 vs 0.863) on the jaundice task. DISCUSSION: Overall, a classifier using n-gram support vectors displayed excellent performance characteristics. The classifier generalizes to diverse patient populations, diagnoses, and procedures. CONCLUSIONS: SVM-based classifiers can accurately identify procedure status and diagnoses among ICU patients, and including n-gram features improves performance, compared to existing methods.