A paleoecological investigation of recent cyanobacterial blooms and their drivers in two contrasting lakes.

Cyanobacterial blooms are one of the most significant threats to global water security and freshwater biodiversity. Interactions among multiple stressors, including habitat degradation, species invasions, increased nutrient runoff, and climate change, are key drivers. However, assessing the role of anthropogenic activity on the onset of cyanobacterial blooms and exploring response variation amongst lakes of varying size and depth is usually limited by lack of historical records. In the present study we applied molecular, paleolimnological (trace metal, Itrax-µ-XRF and hyperspectral scanning, chronology), paleobotanical (pollen) and historical data to reconstruct cyanobacterial abundance and community composition and anthropogenic impacts in two dune lakes over a period of up to 1200 years. Metabarcoding and droplet digital PCR results showed very low levels of picocyanobacteria present in the lakes prior to about CE 1854 (1839-1870 CE) in the smaller shallow Lake Alice and CE 1970 (1963-1875 CE) in the larger deeper Lake Wiritoa. Hereafter bloom-forming cyanobacteria were detected and increased notably in abundance post CE 1984 (1982-1985 CE) in Lake Alice and CE 1997 (1990-2007 CE) in Lake Wiritoa. Currently, the magnitude of blooms is more pronounced in Lake Wiritoa, potentially attributable to hypoxia-induced release of phosphorus from sediment, introducing an additional source of nutrients. Generalized linear modelling was used to investigate the contribution of nutrients (proxy = bacterial functions), temperature, redox conditions (Mn:Fe), and erosion (Ti:Inc) in driving the abundance of cyanobacteria (ddPCR). In Lake Alice nutrients and erosion had a statistically significant effect, while in Lake Wiritoa nutrients and redox conditions were significant.

Resolving 500 Years of Anthropogenic Impacts in a Mesotrophic Lake: Nutrients Outweigh Other Drivers of Lake Change.

Interactions among multiple stressors, legacies of past perturbations, and the lack of historical information make it difficult to determine the influence of individual anthropogenic impacts on lakes and separate them from natural ecosystem variability. In the present study, we coupled paleolimnological approaches, historical data, and ecological experiments to disentangle the impacts of multiple long-term stressors on lake ecosystem structure and function. We found that the lake structure and function remained resistant to the impacts of catchment deforestation and erosion, and the introduction of several exotic fish species. Changes in ecosystem structure and function were consistent, with nutrient enrichment being the primary driver of change. Significant and sustained changes in the lake diatom community structure (and their nutrient requirements), bacterial community function, and paleolimnological proxies of ecosystem function coincided with nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizers in the catchment. The results highlight that the effects of increased nutrient inputs are much stronger than the influence of other, potentially significant, drivers of ecosystem change, and that the degree of nutrient impact can be underestimated by environmental monitoring due to its diffuse and accumulative nature. Delineating the effects of multiple anthropogenic drivers requires long-term records of both impacts and lake ecosystem change across multiple trophic levels.