Current Risk Adjustment and Comorbidity Index Underperformance in Predicting Post-Acute Utilization and Hospital Readmissions After Joint Replacements: Implications for Comprehensive Care for Joint Replacement Model.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the performances of 3 comorbidity indices, the Charlson Comorbidity Index, the Elixhauser Comorbidity Index, and the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) risk adjustment model, Hierarchical Condition Category (HCC), in predicting post-acute discharge settings and hospital readmission for patients after joint replacement. METHODS: A retrospective study of Medicare beneficiaries with total knee replacement (TKR) or total hip replacement (THR) discharged from hospitals in 2009-2011 (n = 607,349) was performed. Study outcomes were post-acute discharge setting and unplanned 30-, 60-, and 90-day hospital readmissions. Logistic regression models were built to compare the performance of the 3 comorbidity indices using C statistics. The base model included patient demographics and hospital use. Subsequent models included 1 of the 3 comorbidity indices. Additional multivariable logistic regression models were built to identify individual comorbid conditions associated with high risk of hospital readmissions. RESULTS: The 30-, 60-, and 90-day unplanned hospital readmission rates were 5.3%, 7.2%, and 8.5%, respectively. Patients were most frequently discharged to home health (46.3%), followed by skilled nursing facility (40.9%) and inpatient rehabilitation facility (12.7%). The C statistics for the base model in predicting post-acute discharge setting and 30-, 60-, and 90-day readmission in TKR and THR were between 0.63 and 0.67. Adding the Charlson Comorbidity Index, the Elixhauser Comorbidity Index, or HCC increased the C statistic minimally from the base model for predicting both discharge settings and hospital readmission. The health conditions most frequently associated with hospital readmission were diabetes mellitus, pulmonary disease, arrhythmias, and heart disease. CONCLUSION: The comorbidity indices and CMS-HCC demonstrated weak discriminatory ability to predict post-acute discharge settings and hospital readmission following joint replacement.

Chamomile Consumption and Mortality: A Prospective Study of Mexican Origin Older Adults.

PURPOSE: Approximately 20% of adults use some kind of herbal; however, little data exists from population-based study or clinical trials to support effectiveness of most herbal products. Chamomile is a commonly used herb among older adults of Mexican origin. We examined the effects of herbal chamomile consumption on mortality among older adults of Mexican origin. METHODS AND DESIGN: A sample from the Hispanic Established Populations for Epidemiologic Study of the Elderly, a population-based study of noninstitutionalized Mexican Americans aged 65 and older from five Southwestern states (Texas, California, New Mexico, Colorado, and Arizona). We included all men and women from 2000 to 2007 (n = 1,677). RESULTS: Chamomile was used by 14% of the sample. Cox proportional hazards regression analyses showed that chamomile was associated with a decreased risk of mortality in the total sample (hazard ratio [HR] 0.71, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.55-0.92) and for women (HR 0.67, 95% CI 0.49-0.92) but not for men. In models adjusted for sociodemographic variables, health behaviors, and chronic conditions, chamomile remained significantly associated with reduced mortality in women (HR 0.72, 95% CI 0.53-0.98). IMPLICATIONS: The use of chamomile shows protective effects against mortality in this sample of older adults of Mexican origin for women. Further research is warranted in other populations to determine if these effects are consistent.