Developing Clinical Risk Prediction Models for Worsening Heart Failure Events and Death by Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction.

Background There is a need to develop electronic health record-based predictive models for worsening heart failure (WHF) events across clinical settings and across the spectrum of left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF). Methods and Results We studied adults with heart failure (HF) from 2011 to 2019 within an integrated health care delivery system. WHF encounters were ascertained using natural language processing and structured data. We conducted boosted decision tree ensemble models to predict 1-year hospitalizations, emergency department visits/observation stays, and outpatient encounters for WHF and all-cause death within each LVEF category: HF with reduced ejection fraction (EF) (LVEF <40%), HF with mildly reduced EF (LVEF 40%-49%), and HF with preserved EF (LVEF ≥50%). Model discrimination was evaluated using area under the curve and calibration using mean squared error. We identified 338 426 adults with HF: 61 045 (18.0%) had HF with reduced EF, 49 618 (14.7%) had HF with mildly reduced EF, and 227 763 (67.3%) had HF with preserved EF. The 1-year risks of any WHF event and death were, respectively, 22.3% and 13.0% for HF with reduced EF, 17.0% and 10.1% for HF with mildly reduced EF, and 16.3% and 10.3% for HF with preserved EF. The WHF model displayed an area under the curve of 0.76 and mean squared error of 0.13, whereas the model for death displayed an area under the curve of 0.83 and mean squared error of 0.076. Performance and predictors were similar across WHF encounter types and LVEF categories. Conclusions We developed risk prediction models for 1-year WHF events and death across the LVEF spectrum using structured and unstructured electronic health record data and observed no substantial differences in model performance or predictors except for death, despite differences in underlying HF cause.

Association Between Participation in a Heart Failure Telemonitoring Program and Health Care Utilization and Death Within an Integrated Health Care Delivery System.

BACKGROUND: The clinical usefulness of remote telemonitoring to reduce postdischarge health care use and death in adults with heart failure (HF) remains controversial. METHODS AND RESULTS: Within a large integrated health care delivery system, we matched patients enrolled in a postdischarge telemonitoring intervention from 2015 to 2019 to patients not receiving telemonitoring at up to a 1:4 ratio on age, sex, and calipers of a propensity score. Primary outcomes were readmissions for worsening HF and all-cause death within 30, 90, and 365 days of the index discharge; secondary outcomes were all-cause readmissions and any outpatient diuretic dose adjustments. We matched 726 patients receiving telemonitoring to 1985 controls not receiving telemonitoring, with a mean age of 75 ± 11 years and 45% female. Patients receiving telemonitoring did not have a significant reduction in worsening HF hospitalizations (adjusted rate ratio [aRR] 0.95, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.68-1.33), all-cause death (adjusted hazard ratio 0.60, 95% CI 0.33-1.08), or all-cause hospitalization (aRR 0.82, 95% CI 0.65-1.05) at 30 days, but did have an increase in outpatient diuretic dose adjustments (aRR 1.84, 95% CI 1.44-2.36). All associations were similar at 90 and 365 days postdischarge. CONCLUSIONS: A postdischarge HF telemonitoring intervention was associated with more diuretic dose adjustments but was not significantly associated with HF-related morbidity and mortality.

Effect of Medically Tailored Meals on Clinical Outcomes in Recently Hospitalized High-Risk Adults.

BACKGROUND: Inability to adhere to nutritional recommendations is common and linked to worse outcomes in patients with nutrition-sensitive conditions. OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study is to evaluate whether medically tailored meals (MTMs) improve outcomes in recently discharged adults with nutrition-sensitive conditions compared with usual care. RESEARCH DESIGN: Remote pragmatic randomized trial. SUBJECTS: Adults with heart failure, diabetes, or chronic kidney disease being discharged home between April 27, 2020, and June 9, 2021, from 5 hospitals within an integrated health care delivery system. MEASURES: Participants were prerandomized to 10 weeks of MTMs (with or without virtual nutritional counseling) compared with usual care. The primary outcome was all-cause hospitalization within 90 days after discharge. Exploratory outcomes included all-cause and cause-specific health care utilization and all-cause death within 90 days after discharge. RESULTS: A total of 1977 participants (MTMs: n=993, with 497 assigned to also receive virtual nutritional counseling; usual care: n=984) were enrolled. Compared with usual care, MTMs did not reduce all-cause hospitalization at 90 days after discharge [adjusted hazard ratio, aHR: 1.02, 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.86-1.21]. In exploratory analyses, MTMs were associated with lower mortality (aHR: 0.65, 95% CI, 0.43-0.98) and fewer hospitalizations for heart failure (aHR: 0.53, 95% CI, 0.33-0.88), but not for any emergency department visits (aHR: 0.95, 95% CI, 0.78-1.15) or diabetes-related hospitalizations (aHR: 0.75, 95% CI, 0.31-1.82). No additional benefit was observed with virtual nutritional counseling. CONCLUSIONS: Provision of MTMs after discharge did not reduce risk of all-cause hospitalization in adults with nutrition-sensitive conditions. Additional large-scale randomized controlled trials are needed to definitively determine the impact of MTMs on survival and cause-specific health care utilization in at-risk individuals.

Analysis of Worsening Heart Failure Events in an Integrated Health Care System.

BACKGROUND: There is growing interest to disentangle worsening heart failure (WHF) from location of care and move away from hospitalization as a surrogate for acuity. OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to describe the incidence of WHF events across the care continuum from ambulatory encounters to hospitalizations. METHODS: We studied calendar year cohorts of adults with diagnosed heart failure (HF) from 2010-2019 within a large, integrated health care delivery system. Electronic health record (EHR) data were accessed for outpatient encounters, emergency department (ED) visits/observation stays, and hospitalizations. WHF was defined as ≥1 symptom, ≥2 objective findings including ≥1 sign, and ≥1 change in HF-related therapy. Symptoms and signs were ascertained using natural language processing. RESULTS: We identified 103,138 eligible individuals with mean age 73.6 ± 13.7 years, 47.5% women, and mean left ventricular ejection fraction of 51.4% ± 13.7%. There were 1,136,750 unique encounters including 743,039 (65.4%) outpatient encounters, 224,670 (19.8%) ED visits/observation stays, and 169,041 (14.9%) hospitalizations. A total of 126,008 WHF episodes were identified, including 34,758 (27.6%) outpatient encounters, 28,301 (22.5%) ED visits/observation stays, and 62,949 (50.0%) hospitalizations. The annual incidence (events per 100 person-years) of WHF increased from 25 to 33 during the study period primarily caused by outpatient encounters (7 to 10) and ED visits/observation stays (4 to 7). The 30-day rate of hospitalizations for WHF ranged from 8.2% for outpatient encounters to 12.4% for hospitalizations. CONCLUSIONS: ED visits/observation stays and outpatient encounters account for approximately one-half of WHF events, are driving the underlying growth in HF morbidity, and portend a poor short-term prognosis.

A Natural Language Processing-Based Approach for Identifying Hospitalizations for Worsening Heart Failure Within an Integrated Health Care Delivery System.

Importance: The current understanding of epidemiological mechanisms and temporal trends in hospitalizations for worsening heart failure (WHF) is based on claims and national reporting databases. However, these data sources are inherently limited by the accuracy and completeness of diagnostic coding and/or voluntary reporting. Objective: To assess the overall burden of and temporal trends in the rate of hospitalizations for WHF. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study, performed from January 1, 2010, to December 31, 2019, used electronic health record (EHR) data from a large integrated health care delivery system. Exposures: Calendar year trends. Main Outcomes and Measures: Hospitalizations for WHF (ie, excluding observation stays) were defined as 1 symptom or more, 2 objective findings or more including 1 sign or more, and 2 doses or more of intravenous loop diuretics and/or new hemodialysis or continuous kidney replacement therapy. Symptoms and signs were identified using natural language processing (NLP) algorithms applied to EHR data. Results: The study population was composed of 118 002 eligible patients experiencing 287 992 unique hospitalizations (mean [SD] age, 75.6 [13.1] years; 147 203 [51.1%] male; 1655 [0.6%] American Indian or Alaska Native, 28 451 [9.9%] Asian or Pacific Islander, 34 903 [12.1%] Black, 23 452 [8.1%] multiracial, 175 840 [61.1%] White, and 23 691 [8.2%] unknown), including 65 357 with a principal discharge diagnosis and 222 635 with a secondary discharge diagnosis of HF. The study population included 59 868 patients (20.8%) with HF with a reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) (<40%), 33 361 (11.6%) with HF with a midrange EF (HFmrEF) (40%-49%), 142 347 (49.4%) with HF with a preserved EF (HFpEF) (≥50%), and 52 416 (18.2%) with unknown EF. A total of 58 042 admissions (88.8%) with a primary discharge diagnosis of HF and 62 764 admissions (28.2%) with a secondary discharge diagnosis of HF met the prespecified diagnostic criteria for WHF. Overall, hospitalizations for WHF identified on NLP-based algorithms increased from 5.2 to 7.6 per 100 hospitalizations per year during the study period. Subgroup analyses found an increase in hospitalizations for WHF based on NLP from 1.5 to 1.9 per 100 hospitalizations for HFrEF, from 0.6 to 1.0 per 100 hospitalizations for HFmrEF, and from 2.6 to 3.9 per 100 hospitalizations for HFpEF. Conclusions and Relevance: The findings of this cohort study suggest that the burden of hospitalizations for WHF may be more than double that previously estimated using only principal discharge diagnosis. There has been a gradual increase in the rate of hospitalizations for WHF with a more noticeable increase observed for HFpEF.

Population-based identification and temporal trend of children with primary nephrotic syndrome: The Kaiser Permanente nephrotic syndrome study.

INTRODUCTION: Limited population-based data exist about children with primary nephrotic syndrome (NS). METHODS: We identified a cohort of children with primary NS receiving care in Kaiser Permanente Northern California, an integrated healthcare delivery system caring for >750,000 children. We identified all children <18 years between 1996 and 2012 who had nephrotic range proteinuria (urine ACR>3500 mg/g, urine PCR>3.5 mg/mg, 24-hour urine protein>3500 mg or urine dipstick>300 mg/dL) in laboratory databases or a diagnosis of NS in electronic health records. Nephrologists reviewed health records for clinical presentation and laboratory and biopsy results to confirm primary NS. RESULTS: Among 365 cases of confirmed NS, 179 had confirmed primary NS attributed to presumed minimal change disease (MCD) (72%), focal segmental glomerulosclerosis (FSGS) (23%) or membranous nephropathy (MN) (5%). The overall incidence of primary NS was 1.47 (95% Confidence Interval:1.27-1.70) per 100,000 person-years. Biopsy data were available in 40% of cases. Median age for patients with primary NS was 6.9 (interquartile range:3.7 to 12.9) years, 43% were female and 26% were white, 13% black, 17% Asian/Pacific Islander, and 32% Hispanic. CONCLUSION: This population-based identification of children with primary NS leveraging electronic health records can provide a unique approach and platform for describing the natural history of NS and identifying determinants of outcomes in children with primary NS.

Timing of AKI after urgent percutaneous coronary intervention and clinical outcomes: a high-dimensional propensity score analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Acute kidney injury is a common complication of percutaneous coronary intervention and has been associated with an increased risk of death and progressive chronic kidney disease. However, whether the timing of acute kidney injury after urgent percutaneous coronary intervention could be used to improve patient risk stratification is not known. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study in adults surviving an urgent percutaneous coronary intervention between 2008 and 2013 within Kaiser Permanente Northern California, a large integrated healthcare delivery system, to evaluate the impact of acute kidney injury during hospitalization at 12 (±6), 24 (±6) and 48 (±6) hours after urgent percutaneous coronary intervention and subsequent risks of adverse outcomes within the first year after discharge. We used multivariable Cox proportional hazards models with adjustment for a high-dimensional propensity score for developing acute kidney injury after percutaneous coronary intervention to examine the associations between acute kidney injury timing and all-cause death and worsening chronic kidney disease. RESULTS: Among 7250 eligible adults undergoing urgent percutaneous coronary intervention, 306 (4.2%) had acute kidney injury at one or more of the examined time periods after percutaneous coronary intervention. After adjustment, acute kidney injury at 12 (±6) hours was independently associated with higher risks of death (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 3.55, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.19-5.75) and worsening kidney function (aHR 2.40, 95% CI:1.24-4.63). Similar results were observed for acute kidney injury at 24 (±6) hours and death (aHR 3.90, 95% CI:2.29-6.66) and worsening chronic kidney disease (aHR 4.77, 95% CI:2.46-9.23). Acute kidney injury at 48 (±6) hours was associated with excess mortality (aHR 1.97, 95% CI:1.19-3.26) but was not significantly associated with worsening kidney function (aHR 0.91, 95% CI:0.42-1.98). CONCLUSIONS: Timing of acute kidney injury after urgent percutaneous coronary intervention may be differentially associated with subsequent risk of worsening kidney function but not death.

Primary Nephrotic Syndrome and Risks of ESKD, Cardiovascular Events, and Death: The Kaiser Permanente Nephrotic Syndrome Study.

BACKGROUND: Little population-based data exist about adults with primary nephrotic syndrome. METHODS: To evaluate kidney, cardiovascular, and mortality outcomes in adults with primary nephrotic syndrome, we identified adults within an integrated health care delivery system (Kaiser Permanente Northern California) with nephrotic-range proteinuria or diagnosed nephrotic syndrome between 1996 and 2012. Nephrologists reviewed medical records for clinical presentation, laboratory findings, and biopsy results to confirm primary nephrotic syndrome and assigned etiology. We identified a 1:100 time-matched cohort of adults without diabetes, diagnosed nephrotic syndrome, or proteinuria as controls to compare rates of ESKD, cardiovascular outcomes, and death through 2014, using multivariable Cox regression. RESULTS: We confirmed 907 patients with primary nephrotic syndrome (655 definite and 252 presumed patients with FSGS [40%], membranous nephropathy [40%], and minimal change disease [20%]). Mean age was 49 years; 43% were women. Adults with primary nephrotic syndrome had higher adjusted rates of ESKD (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 19.63; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 12.76 to 30.20), acute coronary syndrome (aHR, 2.58; 95% CI, 1.89 to 3.52), heart failure (aHR, 3.01; 95% CI, 2.16 to 4.19), ischemic stroke (aHR, 1.80; 95% CI, 1.06 to 3.05), venous thromboembolism (aHR, 2.56; 95% CI, 1.35 to 4.85), and death (aHR, 1.34; 95% CI, 1.09 to 1.64) versus controls. Excess ESKD risk was significantly higher for FSGS and membranous nephropathy than for presumed minimal change disease. The three etiologies of primary nephrotic syndrome did not differ significantly in terms of cardiovascular outcomes and death. CONCLUSIONS: Adults with primary nephrotic syndrome experience higher adjusted rates of ESKD, cardiovascular outcomes, and death, with significant variation by underlying etiology in the risk for developing ESKD.

Implication of Trends in Timing of Dialysis Initiation for Incidence of End-stage Kidney Disease.

Importance: In the last 2 decades, there have been notable changes in the level of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) at which patients initiate long-term dialysis in the US and around the world. How changes over time in the likelihood of dialysis initiation at any given eGFR level in at-risk patients are associated with the population burden of end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) has not been not well defined. Objective: To examine temporal trends in long-term dialysis initiation by level of eGFR and to quantify how these patterns are associated with the number of patients with ESKD. Design, Setting, and Participants: Retrospective cohort study analyzing data obtained from a large, integrated health care delivery system in Northern California from 2001 to 2018 in successive 3-year intervals. Included individuals, ranging in number from as few as 983 122 (2001-2003) to as many as 1 844 317 (2016-2018), were adult members with 1 or more outpatient serum creatinine levels determined in the prior year. Main Outcomes and Measures: One-year risk of initiating long-term dialysis stratified by eGFR levels. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to assess temporal trends in each 3-year cohort with adjustment for age, sex, race, and diabetes status. The potential change in dialysis initiation in the final cohort (2016-2018) was estimated using the relative difference between the standardized risks in the initial cohort (2001-2003) and the final cohort. Results: In the initial 3-year cohort, the mean (SD) age was 55.4 (16.3) years, 55.0% were women, and the prevalence of diabetes was 14.9%. These characteristics, as well as the distribution of index eGFR, were stable across the study period. The likelihood of receiving dialysis at eGFR levels of 10 to 24 mL/min/1.73 m2 generally increased over time. For example, the 1-year odds of initiating dialysis increased for every 3-year interval by 5.2% (adjusted odds ratio, 1.052; 95% CI, 1.004-1.102) among adults with an index eGFR of 20 to 24 mL/min/1.73 m2, by 6.6% (adjusted odds ratio, 1.066; 95% CI, 1.007-1.130) among adults with an eGFR of 16 to 17 mL/min/1.73 m2, and by 5.3% (adjusted odds ratio, 1.053; 95% CI, 1.008-1.100) among adults with an eGFR of 10 to 13 mL/min/1.73 m2, adjusting for age, sex, race, and diabetes. The incidence of new cases of ESKD was estimated to have potentially been 16% (95% CI, 13%-18%) lower if there were no changes in system-level practice patterns or other factors besides timing of initiating long-term dialysis from the initial 3-year interval (2001-2003) to the final interval (2016-2018) assessed in this study. Conclusions and Relevance: The present results underscore the importance the timing of initiating long-term dialysis has on the size of the population of individuals with ESKD.

Community-Based Epidemiology of Hospitalized Acute Kidney Injury.

BACKGROUND: Acute kidney injury (AKI) may lead to short- and long-term consequences in children, but its epidemiology has not been well described at a population level and outside of ICU settings. METHODS: In a large, diverse pediatric population receiving care within an integrated health care delivery system between 2008 and 2016, we calculated age- and sex-adjusted incidences of hospitalized AKI using consensus serum creatinine (SCr)-based diagnostic criteria. We also investigated the proportion of AKI detected in non-ICU settings and the rates of follow-up outpatient SCr testing after AKI hospitalization. RESULTS: Among 1 500 546 children, the mean age was 9.8 years, 49.0% were female, and 33.1% were minorities. Age- and sex-adjusted incidence of hospitalized AKI among the entire pediatric population did not change significantly across the study period, averaging 0.70 (95% confidence interval: 0.68-0.73) cases per 1000 person-years. Among the subset of hospitalized children, the adjusted incidence of AKI increased from 6.0% of hospitalizations in 2008 to 8.8% in 2016. Approximately 66.7% of AKI episodes were not associated with an ICU stay, and 54.3% of confirmed, unresolved Stage 2 or 3 AKI episodes did not have outpatient follow-up SCr testing within 30 days postdischarge. CONCLUSIONS: Community-based pediatric AKI incidence was ∼1 per 1000 per year, with two-thirds of cases not associated with an ICU stay and more than one-half not receiving early outpatient follow-up kidney function testing. Further efforts are needed to increase the systematic recognition of AKI in all inpatient settings with appropriate, targeted postdischarge kidney function monitoring and associated management.