RESUMO
OBJECTIVES: To examine the impact of prostate-specific antigen-based screening on prostate cancer incidence, mortality, and survival in the Umbria region of Italy for the period 1978 to 1999. METHODS: Incidence rates were derived from an ad hoc survey and from cancer registry records for the period 1978 to 1982 and 1994 to 1999, respectively. The mortality trend was assessed by joinpoint analysis using data from the official publications. The observed, relative, and age-adjusted relative survival rates were also calculated. RESULTS: The number of newly diagnosed cases in 1997 to 1999 was almost four times greater than in 1978 to 1982, the crude incidence rate was more than three times, and the age-adjusted incidence rate increased by about 125%. No trend was apparent for mortality. The survival rates also showed a large increase. The 5-year relative survival rate was 37% and 74% for 1978 to 1982 and 1994 to 1998 incident cases, respectively. People older than 75 years showed the same striking increase in incidence and survival rates as the younger age groups. CONCLUSIONS: As in many other developed countries, prostate cancer screening activities are the likely cause of the increase in incidence and survival rates observed in the study area, but a decreasing mortality trend is not yet evident. Opportunistic screening is likely to be performed among all age groups, including the elderly, although the latter are unlikely to benefit from intervention. The evaluation of opportunistic screening is difficult and a lack of evaluation implies a high risk of ineffective interventions and inequality of care.