Decision-Analytic Modeling Studies in Prevention and Treatment of Iodine Deficiency and Thyroid Disorders: A Systematic Overview.

Background: Prevention and treatment of iodine deficiency-related diseases remain an important public health challenge. Iodine deficiency can have severe health consequences, such as cretinism, goiter, or other thyroid disorders, and it has economic implications. Our aim was to give an overview of studies applying decision-analytic modeling to evaluate the effectiveness and/or cost-effectiveness of iodine deficiency-related prevention strategies or treatments related to thyroid disorders. Methods: We performed a systematic literature search in PubMed/MEDLINE (Medical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System Online), EMBASE (Excerpta Medica Database), Tuft's Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Registry, and National Health System Economic Evaluation Database (NHS EED) to identify studies published between 1985 and 2018 comparing different prevention or treatment strategies for iodine deficiency and thyroid disorders by applying a mathematical decision-analytic model. Studies were required to evaluate patient-relevant health outcomes (e.g., remaining life years, quality-adjusted life years [QALYs]). Results: Overall, we found 3950 studies. After removal of duplicates, abstract/title, and full-text screening, 17 studies were included. Eleven studies evaluated screening programs (mainly newborns and pregnant women), five studies focused on treatment approaches (Graves' disease, toxic thyroid adenoma), and one study was about primary prevention (consequences of iodine supplementation on offspring). Most of the studies were conducted within the U.S. health care context (n = 7). Seven studies were based on a Markov state-transition model, nine studies on a decision tree model, and in one study, an initial decision tree and a long-term Markov state-transition model were combined. The analytic time horizon ranged from 1 year to lifetime. QALYs were evaluated as health outcome measure in 15 of the included studies. In all studies, a cost-effectiveness analysis was performed. None of the models reported a formal model validation. In most cases, the authors of the modeling studies concluded that screening is potentially cost-effective or even cost-saving. The recommendations for treatment approaches were rather heterogeneous and depending on the specific research question, population, and setting. Conclusions: Overall, we predominantly identified decision-analytic modeling studies evaluating specific screening programs or treatment approaches; however, there was no model evaluating primary prevention programs on a population basis. Conclusions deriving from these studies, for example, that prevention is cost-saving, need to be carefully interpreted as they rely on many assumptions.

Vitamin D, Cardiovascular Disease and Risk Factors.

Observational studies have suggested a possible protective role of vitamin D on the cardiovascular system. The available evidence does not support either cardiovascular benefits or harms of vitamin D supplementation. This chapter provides an overview and discussion of the current knowledge of vitamin D effects from a cardiovascular health perspective. It focuses on vitamin D in relation to cardiovascular disease, i.e. ischemic heart disease, and stroke; the traditional cardiovascular risk factors hypertension, abnormal blood lipids, obesity; and the emerging risk factors hyperparathyroidism, microalbuminuria, chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases, and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. Meta-analyses of observational studies have largely found vitamin D levels to be inversely associated with cardiovascular risk and disease. However, Mendelian randomization studies and randomized, controlled trials (RCTs) have not been able to consistently replicate the observational findings. Several RCTs are ongoing, and the results from these are needed to clarify whether vitamin D deficiency is a causal and reversible factor to prevent cardiovascular disease.

Urinary metabolomics reveals glycemic and coffee associated signatures of thyroid function in two population-based cohorts.

BACKGROUND: Triiodothyronine (T3) and thyroxine (T4) as the main secretion products of the thyroid affect nearly every human tissue and are involved in a broad range of processes ranging from energy expenditure and lipid metabolism to glucose homeostasis. Metabolomics studies outside the focus of clinical manifest thyroid diseases are rare. The aim of the present investigation was to analyze the cross-sectional and longitudinal associations of urinary metabolites with serum free T4 (FT4) and thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH). METHODS: Urine Metabolites of participants of the population-based studies Inter99 (n = 5620) and Health2006/Health2008 (n = 3788) were analyzed by 1H-NMR spectroscopy. Linear or mixed linear models were used to detect associations between urine metabolites and thyroid function. RESULTS: Cross-sectional analyses revealed positive relations of alanine, trigonelline and lactic acid with FT4 and negative relations of dimethylamine, glucose, glycine and lactic acid with log(TSH). In longitudinal analyses, lower levels of alanine, dimethylamine, glycine, lactic acid and N,N-dimethylglycine were linked to a higher decline in FT4 levels over time, whereas higher trigonelline levels were related to a higher FT4 decline. Moreover, the risk of hypothyroidism was higher in subjects with high baseline trigonelline or low lactic acid, alanine or glycine values. CONCLUSION: The detected associations mainly emphasize the important role of thyroid hormones in glucose homeostasis. In addition, the predictive character of these metabolites might argue for a potential feedback of the metabolic state on thyroid function. Besides known metabolic consequences of TH, the link to the urine excretion of trigonelline, a marker of coffee consumption, represents a novel finding of this study and given the ubiquitous consumption of coffee requires further research.

Lifestyle and genetic determinants of folate and vitamin B12 levels in a general adult population.

Danish legislation regarding food fortification has been very restrictive resulting in few fortified food items on the Danish market. Folate and vitamin B12 deficiency is thought to be common due to inadequate intakes but little is known about the actual prevalence of low serum folate and vitamin B12 in the general population. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the folate and vitamin B12 status of Danish adults and to investigate associations between vitamin status and distinct lifestyle and genetic factors. The study included a random sample of 6784 individuals aged 30-60 years. Information on lifestyle factors was obtained by questionnaires and blood samples were analysed for serum folate and vitamin B12 concentrations and several genetic polymorphisms. The overall prevalence of low serum folate ( < 6.8 nmol/l) was 31.4 %. Low serum folate was more common among men than women and the prevalence was lower with increasing age. Low serum folate was associated with smoking, low alcohol intake, high coffee intake, unhealthy diet, and the TT genotype of the methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFR)-C677T polymorphism. The overall prevalence of low serum vitamin B12 ( < 148 pmol/l) was 4.7 %. Low serum vitamin B12 was significantly associated with female sex, high coffee intake, low folate status, and the TT genotype of the MTHFR-C677T polymorphism. In conclusion, low serum folate was present in almost a third of the adult population in the present study and was associated with several lifestyle factors whereas low serum concentrations of vitamin B12 were less common and only found to be associated with a few lifestyle factors.