Value of Triage Treatment Strategies to Distribute Hepatitis C Direct-Acting Antiviral Agents in an Integrated Healthcare System: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of fibrosis-based direct-acting antiviral treatment policies for patients with chronic hepatitis C virus at the Kaiser Permanente Mid-Atlantic States health system. METHODS: We used a Markov model to compare the lifetime costs and effects of treating patients with chronic hepatitis C virus at different stages of disease severity, or all stages simultaneously, based on a fibrosis score from the US healthcare sector perspective and societal perspective. The initial distribution of patients across fibrosis scores, the effectiveness of direct-acting antiviral therapy, and follow-up and monitoring protocols were specific to the Kaiser Permanente Mid-Atlantic States health system. Direct and indirect costs, transition probabilities, and utilities were derived from the literature. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the robustness of our results. RESULTS: The "Treat All" option was dominant from both the societal and healthcare sector perspectives. The conclusion was robust in deterministic sensitivity analysis. The range of incremental costs between the less restrictive policies was small-the difference between the "Treat F1+" and the "Treat All" option was only $111 per person. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses showed, at both the $100 000/quality-adjusted life-year and $150 000/quality-adjusted life-year thresholds, there was a 70% chance that the "Treat All" option was more cost-effective than the "Treat F1+" option. CONCLUSIONS: We found that expanded treatment access is cost-effective and, in many cases, cost saving. Although our results are primarily applicable to a regional integrated healthcare system, it offers some direction to any healthcare setting faced with resource constraints in the face of highly priced drugs.

Dynamic Risk Prediction of Response to Ursodeoxycholic Acid Among Patients with Primary Biliary Cholangitis in the USA.

BACKGROUND: Ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) remains the first-line therapy for primary biliary cholangitis (PBC); however, inadequate treatment response (ITR) is common. The UK-PBC Consortium developed the modified UDCA Response Score (m-URS) to predict ITR (using alkaline phosphatase [ALP] > 1.67 times the upper limit of normal [*ULN]) at 12 months post-UDCA initiation). Using data from the US-based Fibrotic Liver Disease Consortium, we assessed the m-URS in our multi-racial cohort. We then used a dynamic modeling approach to improve prediction accuracy. METHODS: Using data collected at the time of UDCA initiation, we assessed the m-URS using the original formula; then, by calibrating coefficients to our data, we also assessed whether it remained accurate when using Paris II criteria for ITR. Next, we developed and validated a dynamic risk prediction model that included post-UDCA initiation laboratory data. RESULTS: Among 1578 patients (13% men; 8% African American, 9% Asian American/American Indian/Pacific Islander; 25% Hispanic), the rate of ITR was 27% using ALP > 1.67*ULN and 45% using Paris II criteria. M-URS accuracy was "very good" (AUROC = 0.87, sensitivity = 0.62, and specificity = 0.82) for ALP > 1.67*ULN and "moderate" (AUROC = 0.74, sensitivity = 0.57, and specificity = 0.70) for Paris II. Our dynamic model significantly improved accuracy for both definitions of ITR (ALP > 1.67*ULN: AUROC = 0.91; Paris II: AUROC = 0.81); specificity approached 100%. Roughly 9% of patients in our cohort were at the highest risk of ITR. CONCLUSIONS: Early identification of patients who will not respond to UDCA treatment using a dynamic prediction model based on longitudinal, repeated risk factor measurements may facilitate earlier introduction of adjuvant treatment.

Determinants of oxidant stress in extremely low birth weight premature infants.

Early in life, premature neonates are at risk of oxidant stress. They often require total parenteral nutrition (TPN), which is, however, contaminated with oxidation products. Coadministration of parenteral multivitamins (MVP) with a lipid emulsion (LIP) prevents lipid peroxidation. We hypothesized that LIP+MVP induces a lower oxidant load compared to preparations in which MVP is administered with an amino acid solution (AA+MVP). The aim of this study was to compare markers of oxidant stress in premature neonates receiving LIP+MVP, either exposed to or protected from light, or AA+MVP. Antioxidant vitamins, the redox potential of glutathione, isoprostane, and dityrosine were measured in urine or blood sampled on days 7 and 10 from babies requiring low (<0.25) vs high (≥0.25) fractional inspired O(2). Oxygen supplementation induced a more oxidized redox potential and increased dityrosine with AA+MVP only. Adding MVP in the lipid rather than the amino acid moiety of TPN protects against the oxidant stress associated with O(2) supplementation. Photoprotection added no benefit. Blood transfusions were found to produce a pronounced oxidant load masking the beneficial effect of LIP+MVP. The impact of these findings relates to a strong association between a more oxidized redox potential and later bronchopulmonary dysplasia, a clinical marker of oxidant stress.