Cost-effectiveness of financial incentives for improving diet and health through Medicare and Medicaid: A microsimulation study.

BACKGROUND: Economic incentives through health insurance may promote healthier behaviors. Little is known about health and economic impacts of incentivizing diet, a leading risk factor for diabetes and cardiovascular disease (CVD), through Medicare and Medicaid. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A validated microsimulation model (CVD-PREDICT) estimated CVD and diabetes cases prevented, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), health-related costs (formal healthcare, informal healthcare, and lost-productivity costs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) of two policy scenarios for adults within Medicare and Medicaid, compared to a base case of no new intervention: (1) 30% subsidy on fruits and vegetables ("F&V incentive") and (2) 30% subsidy on broader healthful foods including F&V, whole grains, nuts/seeds, seafood, and plant oils ("healthy food incentive"). Inputs included national demographic and dietary data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2009-2014, policy effects and diet-disease effects from meta-analyses, and policy and health-related costs from established sources. Overall, 82 million adults (35-80 years old) were on Medicare and/or Medicaid. The mean (SD) age was 68.1 (11.4) years, 56.2% were female, and 25.5% were non-whites. Health and cost impacts were simulated over the lifetime of current Medicare and Medicaid participants (average simulated years = 18.3 years). The F&V incentive was estimated to prevent 1.93 million CVD events, gain 4.64 million QALYs, and save $39.7 billion in formal healthcare costs. For the healthy food incentive, corresponding gains were 3.28 million CVD and 0.12 million diabetes cases prevented, 8.40 million QALYs gained, and $100.2 billion in formal healthcare costs saved, respectively. From a healthcare perspective, both scenarios were cost-effective at 5 years and beyond, with lifetime ICERs of $18,184/QALY (F&V incentive) and $13,194/QALY (healthy food incentive). From a societal perspective including informal healthcare costs and lost productivity, respective ICERs were $14,576/QALY and $9,497/QALY. Results were robust in probabilistic sensitivity analyses and a range of one-way sensitivity and subgroup analyses, including by different durations of the intervention (5, 10, and 20 years and lifetime), food subsidy levels (20%, 50%), insurance groups (Medicare, Medicaid, and dual-eligible), and beneficiary characteristics within each insurance group (age, race/ethnicity, education, income, and Supplemental Nutrition Assistant Program [SNAP] status). Simulation studies such as this one provide quantitative estimates of benefits and uncertainty but cannot directly prove health and economic impacts. CONCLUSIONS: Economic incentives for healthier foods through Medicare and Medicaid could generate substantial health gains and be highly cost-effective.

Meeting adequate intake for dietary calcium without dairy foods in adolescents aged 9 to 18 years (National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2001-2002).

BACKGROUND: In the United States, >50% of dietary calcium is provided by milk and milk products. Calcium intakes in the United States are inadequate for many children, and a large proportion do not drink milk or consume dairy products. However, no studies have addressed whether dairy-free diets can provide adequate calcium while meeting other nutrient recommendations. OBJECTIVE: To determine the highest calcium intake for adolescents obtained from dairy-free diets, and to examine the relationship between intakes of calcium-fortified foods, using citrus juice as an example, and maximal calcium intakes. DESIGN: In the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2001 to 2002, 65 females and 62 males, aged 9 to 18 years, reported no intake of dairy. We used linear programming to generate diets with maximal calcium intake, while meeting Dietary Reference Intakes for a set of nutrients, limiting energy and fat intakes, and not selecting food quantities exceeding amounts usually eaten in the population. RESULTS: With food use and energy and fat constraints, diets formulated by linear programming provided 1,150 and 1,411 mg/day of calcium for girls and boys, respectively. With the Dietary Reference Intakes constraints, these decreased to 869 and 1,160 mg/day. When we introduced 1.5 servings of fortified juice to the diets, the highest calcium intake increased to 1,302 mg/day for girls and to 1,640 mg/day for boys. CONCLUSIONS: Adequate intake for calcium cannot be met with dairy-free diets while meeting other nutrient recommendations. To meet the adequate intake for calcium without large changes in dietary patterns, calcium-fortified foods are needed. In addition, greater physical activity and responsible sunlight exposure should be encouraged to promote vitamin D adequacy.