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BACKGROUND: Accurate risk stratification is critical to guide management decisions in localized prostate cancer (PCa). Previously, we had developed and validated a multimodal artificial intelligence (MMAI) model generated from digital histopathology and clinical features. Here, we externally validate this model on men with high-risk or locally advanced PCa treated and followed as part of a phase 3 randomized control trial. OBJECTIVE: To externally validate the MMAI model on men with high-risk or locally advanced PCa treated and followed as part of a phase 3 randomized control trial. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Our validation cohort included 318 localized high-risk PCa patients from NRG/RTOG 9902 with available histopathology (337 [85%] of the 397 patients enrolled into the trial had available slides, of which 19 [5.6%] failed due to poor image quality). OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: Two previously locked prognostic MMAI models were validated for their intended endpoint: distant metastasis (DM) and PCa-specific mortality (PCSM). Individual clinical factors and the number of National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) high-risk features served as comparators. Subdistribution hazard ratio (sHR) was reported per standard deviation increase of the score with corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI) using Fine-Gray or Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: The DM and PCSM MMAI algorithms were significantly and independently associated with the risk of DM (sHR [95% CI] = 2.33 [1.60-3.38], p < 0.001) and PCSM, respectively (sHR [95% CI] = 3.54 [2.38-5.28], p < 0.001) when compared against other prognostic clinical factors and NCCN high-risk features. The lower 75% of patients by DM MMAI had estimated 5- and 10-yr DM rates of 4% and 7%, and the highest quartile had average 5- and 10-yr DM rates of 19% and 32%, respectively (p < 0.001). Similar results were observed for the PCSM MMAI algorithm. CONCLUSIONS: We externally validated the prognostic ability of MMAI models previously developed among men with localized high-risk disease. MMAI prognostic models further risk stratify beyond the clinical and pathological variables for DM and PCSM in a population of men already at a high risk for disease progression. This study provides evidence for consistent validation of our deep learning MMAI models to improve prognostication and enable more informed decision-making for patient care. PATIENT SUMMARY: This paper presents a novel approach using images from pathology slides along with clinical variables to validate artificial intelligence (computer-generated) prognostic models. When implemented, clinicians can offer a more personalized and tailored prognostic discussion for men with localized prostate cancer.
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BACKGROUND: Desmoid tumors (also referred to as aggressive fibromatosis) are connective tissue neoplasms that can arise in any anatomical location and infiltrate the mesentery, neurovascular structures, and visceral organs. There is no standard of care. METHODS: In this double-blind, phase 3 trial, we randomly assigned 87 patients with progressive, symptomatic, or recurrent desmoid tumors to receive either sorafenib (400-mg tablet once daily) or matching placebo. Crossover to the sorafenib group was permitted for patients in the placebo group who had disease progression. The primary end point was investigator-assessed progression-free survival; rates of objective response and adverse events were also evaluated. RESULTS: With a median follow-up of 27.2 months, the 2-year progression-free survival rate was 81% (95% confidence interval [CI], 69 to 96) in the sorafenib group and 36% (95% CI, 22 to 57) in the placebo group (hazard ratio for progression or death, 0.13; 95% CI, 0.05 to 0.31; P<0.001). Before crossover, the objective response rate was 33% (95% CI, 20 to 48) in the sorafenib group and 20% (95% CI, 8 to 38) in the placebo group. The median time to an objective response among patients who had a response was 9.6 months (interquartile range, 6.6 to 16.7) in the sorafenib group and 13.3 months (interquartile range, 11.2 to 31.1) in the placebo group. The objective responses are ongoing. Among patients who received sorafenib, the most frequently reported adverse events were grade 1 or 2 events of rash (73%), fatigue (67%), hypertension (55%), and diarrhea (51%). CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with progressive, refractory, or symptomatic desmoid tumors, sorafenib significantly prolonged progression-free survival and induced durable responses. (Funded by the National Cancer Institute and others; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02066181 .).