Forecasting disability-adjusted life years for chronic diseases: reference and alternative scenarios of salt intake for 2017-2040 in Japan.

BACKGROUND: In Japan, a high-sodium diet is the most important dietary risk factor and is known to cause a range of health problems. This study aimed to forecast Japan's disability-adjusted life year (DALYs) for chronic diseases that would be associated with high-sodium diet in different future scenarios of salt intake. We modelled DALY forecast and alternative future scenarios of salt intake for cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), chronic kidney diseases (CKDs), and stomach cancer (SC) from 2017 to 2040. METHODS: We developed a three-component model of disease-specific DALYs: a component on the changes in major behavioural and metabolic risk predictors including salt intake; a component on the income per person, educational attainment, and total fertility rate under 25 years; and an autoregressive integrated moving average model to capture the unexplained component correlated over time. Data on risk predictors were obtained from Japan's National Health and Nutrition Surveys and from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. To generate a reference forecast of disease-specific DALY rates for 2017-2040, we modelled the three diseases using the data for 1990-2016. Additionally, we generated better, moderate, and worse scenarios to evaluate the impact of change in salt intake on the DALY rate for the diseases. RESULTS: In our reference forecast, the DALY rates across all ages were predicted to be stable for CVDs, continuously increasing for CKDs, and continuously decreasing for SC. Meanwhile, the age group-specific DALY rates for these three diseases were forecasted to decrease, with some exceptions. Except for the ≥70 age group, there were remarkable differences in DALY rates between scenarios, with the best scenario having the lowest DALY rates in 2040 for SC. This represents a wide scope of future trajectories by 2040 with a potential for tremendous decrease in SC burden. CONCLUSIONS: The gap between scenarios provides some quantification of the range of policy impacts on future trajectories of salt intake. Even though we do not yet know the policy mix used to achieve these scenarios, the result that there can be differences between scenarios means that policies today can have a significant impact on the future DALYs.

Blood transfusion in primary total shoulder arthroplasty: incidence, trends, and risk factors in the United States from 2000 to 2009.

BACKGROUND: Total shoulder arthroplasty (TSA) may be associated with substantial blood loss, and some patients require perioperative blood transfusion. Possible blood transfusion methods include predonated autologous blood transfusion, perioperative autologous blood transfusion, and allogeneic blood transfusion (ALBT). The purposes of the present study were to assess the incidence and recent trends over time of blood transfusion in TSA and analyze patient and hospital characteristics that affect the risk of ALBT. METHODS: This study used national hospital discharge data from the National Inpatient Sample between 2000 and 2009. The data were used to generate the overall blood transfusion rate, and linear regression was used to assess trends in transfusion patterns over time. Logistic regression analysis was performed to analyze which patient and hospital characteristics independently influence the likelihood that a given patient undergoes ALBT. RESULTS: The overall blood transfusion rate (ie, the proportion of patients who received at least 1 transfusion of any kind) was 6.7%. This rate increased over time, from 4.9% in 2000 to 7.1% in 2009 (P < .001). Risk factors associated with ALBT included age, gender, race, insurance status, hospital region, and hospital annual caseload. CONCLUSIONS: The increase in overall blood transfusion rate in TSA found in the present study may be related to factors specific to TSA, such as the introduction of reverse total shoulder arthroplasty during the study period. A variety of patient and hospital characteristics contribute to the risk of undergoing ALBT.

National trends in the utilization of blood transfusions in total hip and knee arthroplasty.

Total hip arthroplasty (THA) and total knee arthroplasty (TKA) are among the most common surgical procedures that necessitate blood transfusion. The purpose of this study was to examine the trends in the utilization of blood transfusions in THA and TKA in the US from 2000 to 2009 by analyzing the Nationwide Inpatient Sample (NIS). During the last decade, the allogeneic blood transfusion (ALBT) rate increased (THA: 11.2% to 19.1%, TKA: 7.7% to 12.4%), whereas the predonated autologous blood transfusion (PR-ABT) rate decreased (THA: 7.7% to 3.9%, TKA: 6.1% to 2.4%) in primary unilateral THA and TKA patients in US hospitals. Overall blood transfusion rates remained stable over time in primary unilateral THA and TKA patients.