Incidence, early case fatality and determinants of stroke in Iran: Golestan Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVES: While few studies investigated the incidence of stroke in Iran, no Iranian cohort has estimated the standardized-incidence rate and early fatality of first-ever-stroke subtypes along with associated factors. METHODS: Golestan Cohort Study is a prospective study launched in northeastern Iran in 2004, including 50,045 individuals aged 40-75 at baseline. Age-standardized incidence rate of first-ever-stroke was calculated per 100,000 person-years, according to World Standard Population. The 28-day case fatality was calculated by dividing the number of fatal first-ever-stroke during the first 28 days by total events. Cox proportional hazard models were conducted to assess incidence and fatality risk factors. We used Population Attributable Fractions to estimate the incidence and early fatality proportions reduced by ideal risk factor control. RESULTS: 1,135 first-ever-strokes were observed during 8.6 (median) years follow-up. First-ever-stroke standardized incidence rate was estimated 185.2 (95% CI: 173.2-197.2) per 100,000 person-years. The 28-day case fatality was 44.1% (95% CI: 40.4-48.2). Hypertension and pre-stroke physical activity were the strongest risk factors associated with first-ever-stroke incidence (Hazard ratio: 2.83; 2.47-3.23) and 28-day case fatality (Hazard ratio: 0.59; 0.44-0.78), respectively. Remarkably, opium consumption was strongly associated with hemorrhagic stroke incidence (Hazard ratio: 1.52; 1.04-2.23) and ischemic stroke fatality (Hazard ratio: 1.44; 1.01-2.09). Overall, modifiable risk factors contributed to 83% and 61% of first-ever-stroke incidence and early fatality, respectively. CONCLUSION: Efficient risk factor control can considerably reduce stroke occurrence and fatality in our study. Establishing awareness campaigns and 24-hour stroke units seem necessary for improving the stroke management in this area.

Outcome after acute ischemic stroke is linked to sex-specific lesion patterns.

Acute ischemic stroke affects men and women differently. In particular, women are often reported to experience higher acute stroke severity than men. We derived a low-dimensional representation of anatomical stroke lesions and designed a Bayesian hierarchical modeling framework tailored to estimate possible sex differences in lesion patterns linked to acute stroke severity (National Institute of Health Stroke Scale). This framework was developed in 555 patients (38% female). Findings were validated in an independent cohort (n = 503, 41% female). Here, we show brain lesions in regions subserving motor and language functions help explain stroke severity in both men and women, however more widespread lesion patterns are relevant in female patients. Higher stroke severity in women, but not men, is associated with left hemisphere lesions in the vicinity of the posterior circulation. Our results suggest there are sex-specific functional cerebral asymmetries that may be important for future investigations of sex-stratified approaches to management of acute ischemic stroke.

Early Detection of Septic Shock Onset Using Interpretable Machine Learners.

BACKGROUND: Developing a decision support system based on advances in machine learning is one area for strategic innovation in healthcare. Predicting a patient's progression to septic shock is an active field of translational research. The goal of this study was to develop a working model of a clinical decision support system for predicting septic shock in an acute care setting for up to 6 h from the time of admission in an integrated healthcare setting. METHOD: Clinical data from Electronic Health Record (EHR), at encounter level, were used to build a predictive model for progression from sepsis to septic shock up to 6 h from the time of admission; that is, T = 1, 3, and 6 h from admission. Eight different machine learning algorithms (Random Forest, XGBoost, C5.0, Decision Trees, Boosted Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machine, Logistic Regression, Regularized Logistic, and Bayes Generalized Linear Model) were used for model development. Two adaptive sampling strategies were used to address the class imbalance. Data from two sources (clinical and billing codes) were used to define the case definition (septic shock) using the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) Sepsis criteria. The model assessment was performed using Area under Receiving Operator Characteristics (AUROC), sensitivity, and specificity. Model predictions for each feature window (1, 3 and 6 h from admission) were consolidated. RESULTS: Retrospective data from April 2005 to September 2018 were extracted from the EHR, Insurance Claims, Billing, and Laboratory Systems to create a dataset for septic shock detection. The clinical criteria and billing information were used to label patients into two classes-septic shock patients and sepsis patients at three different time points from admission, creating two different case-control cohorts. Data from 45,425 unique in-patient visits were used to build 96 prediction models comparing clinical-based definition versus billing-based information as the gold standard. Of the 24 consolidated models (based on eight machine learning algorithms and three feature windows), four models reached an AUROC greater than 0.9. Overall, all the consolidated models reached an AUROC of at least 0.8820 or higher. Based on the AUROC of 0.9483, the best model was based on Random Forest, with a sensitivity of 83.9% and specificity of 88.1%. The sepsis detection window at 6 h outperformed the 1 and 3-h windows. The sepsis definition based on clinical variables had improved performance when compared to the sepsis definition based on only billing information. CONCLUSION: This study corroborated that machine learning models can be developed to predict septic shock using clinical and administrative data. However, the use of clinical information to define septic shock outperformed models developed based on only administrative data. Intelligent decision support tools can be developed and integrated into the EHR and improve clinical outcomes and facilitate the optimization of resources in real-time.

Artificial Intelligence Transforms the Future of Health Care.

Life sciences researchers using artificial intelligence (AI) are under pressure to innovate faster than ever. Large, multilevel, and integrated data sets offer the promise of unlocking novel insights and accelerating breakthroughs. Although more data are available than ever, only a fraction is being curated, integrated, understood, and analyzed. AI focuses on how computers learn from data and mimic human thought processes. AI increases learning capacity and provides decision support system at scales that are transforming the future of health care. This article is a review of applications for machine learning in health care with a focus on clinical, translational, and public health applications with an overview of the important role of privacy, data sharing, and genetic information.

An automated framework for hypotheses generation using literature.

BACKGROUND: In bio-medicine, exploratory studies and hypothesis generation often begin with researching existing literature to identify a set of factors and their association with diseases, phenotypes, or biological processes. Many scientists are overwhelmed by the sheer volume of literature on a disease when they plan to generate a new hypothesis or study a biological phenomenon. The situation is even worse for junior investigators who often find it difficult to formulate new hypotheses or, more importantly, corroborate if their hypothesis is consistent with existing literature. It is a daunting task to be abreast with so much being published and also remember all combinations of direct and indirect associations. Fortunately there is a growing trend of using literature mining and knowledge discovery tools in biomedical research. However, there is still a large gap between the huge amount of effort and resources invested in disease research and the little effort in harvesting the published knowledge. The proposed hypothesis generation framework (HGF) finds "crisp semantic associations" among entities of interest - that is a step towards bridging such gaps. METHODOLOGY: The proposed HGF shares similar end goals like the SWAN but are more holistic in nature and was designed and implemented using scalable and efficient computational models of disease-disease interaction. The integration of mapping ontologies with latent semantic analysis is critical in capturing domain specific direct and indirect "crisp" associations, and making assertions about entities (such as disease X is associated with a set of factors Z). RESULTS: Pilot studies were performed using two diseases. A comparative analysis of the computed "associations" and "assertions" with curated expert knowledge was performed to validate the results. It was observed that the HGF is able to capture "crisp" direct and indirect associations, and provide knowledge discovery on demand. CONCLUSIONS: The proposed framework is fast, efficient, and robust in generating new hypotheses to identify factors associated with a disease. A full integrated Web service application is being developed for wide dissemination of the HGF. A large-scale study by the domain experts and associated researchers is underway to validate the associations and assertions computed by the HGF.