Extreme climate after massive eruption of Alaska's Okmok volcano in 43 BCE and effects on the late Roman Republic and Ptolemaic Kingdom.

The assassination of Julius Caesar in 44 BCE triggered a power struggle that ultimately ended the Roman Republic and, eventually, the Ptolemaic Kingdom, leading to the rise of the Roman Empire. Climate proxies and written documents indicate that this struggle occurred during a period of unusually inclement weather, famine, and disease in the Mediterranean region; historians have previously speculated that a large volcanic eruption of unknown origin was the most likely cause. Here we show using well-dated volcanic fallout records in six Arctic ice cores that one of the largest volcanic eruptions of the past 2,500 y occurred in early 43 BCE, with distinct geochemistry of tephra deposited during the event identifying the Okmok volcano in Alaska as the source. Climate proxy records show that 43 and 42 BCE were among the coldest years of recent millennia in the Northern Hemisphere at the start of one of the coldest decades. Earth system modeling suggests that radiative forcing from this massive, high-latitude eruption led to pronounced changes in hydroclimate, including seasonal temperatures in specific Mediterranean regions as much as 7 °C below normal during the 2 y period following the eruption and unusually wet conditions. While it is difficult to establish direct causal linkages to thinly documented historical events, the wet and very cold conditions from this massive eruption on the opposite side of Earth probably resulted in crop failures, famine, and disease, exacerbating social unrest and contributing to political realignments throughout the Mediterranean region at this critical juncture of Western civilization.

Lead pollution recorded in Greenland ice indicates European emissions tracked plagues, wars, and imperial expansion during antiquity.

Lead pollution in Arctic ice reflects midlatitude emissions from ancient lead-silver mining and smelting. The few reported measurements have been extrapolated to infer the performance of ancient economies, including comparisons of economic productivity and growth during the Roman Republican and Imperial periods. These studies were based on sparse sampling and inaccurate dating, limiting understanding of trends and specific linkages. Here we show, using a precisely dated record of estimated lead emissions between 1100 BCE and 800 CE derived from subannually resolved measurements in Greenland ice and detailed atmospheric transport modeling, that annual European lead emissions closely varied with historical events, including imperial expansion, wars, and major plagues. Emissions rose coeval with Phoenician expansion, accelerated during expanded Carthaginian and Roman mining primarily in the Iberian Peninsula, and reached a maximum under the Roman Empire. Emissions fluctuated synchronously with wars and political instability particularly during the Roman Republic, and plunged coincident with two major plagues in the second and third centuries, remaining low for >500 years. Bullion in silver coinage declined in parallel, reflecting the importance of lead-silver mining in ancient economies. Our results indicate sustained economic growth during the first two centuries of the Roman Empire, terminated by the second-century Antonine plague.

Chronology of Pu isotopes and 236U in an Arctic ice core.

In the present work, state of the art isotopic fingerprinting techniques are applied to an Arctic ice core in order to quantify deposition of U and Pu, and to identify possible tropospheric transport of debris from former Soviet Union test sites Semipalatinsk (Central Asia) and Novaya Zemlya (Arctic Ocean). An ice core chronology of (236)U, (239)Pu, and (240)Pu concentrations, and atom ratios, measured by accelerator mass spectrometry in a 28.6m deep ice core from the Austfonna glacier at Nordaustlandet, Svalbard is presented. The ice core chronology corresponds to the period 1949 to 1999. The main sources of Pu and (236)U contamination in the Arctic were the atmospheric nuclear detonations in the period 1945 to 1980, as global fallout, and tropospheric fallout from the former Soviet Union test sites Novaya Zemlya and Semipalatinsk. Activity concentrations of (239+240)Pu ranged from 0.008 to 0.254 mBq cm(-2) and (236)U from 0.0039 to 0.053 µBq cm(-2). Concentrations varied in concordance with (137)Cs concentrations in the same ice core. In contrast to previous published results, the concentrations of Pu and (236)U were found to be higher at depths corresponding to the pre-moratorium period (1949 to 1959) than to the post-moratorium period (1961 and 1962). The (240)Pu/(239)Pu ratio ranged from 0.15 to 0.19, and (236)U/(239)Pu ranged from 0.18 to 1.4. The Pu atom ratios ranged within the limits of global fallout in the most intensive period of nuclear atmospheric testing (1952 to 1962). To the best knowledge of the authors the present work is the first publication on biogeochemical cycles with respect to (236)U concentrations and (236)U/(239)Pu atom ratios in the Arctic and in ice cores.