Improving Stroke Risk Prediction in the General Population: A Comparative Assessment of Common Clinical Rules, a New Multimorbid Index, and Machine-Learning-Based Algorithms.

BACKGROUND: There are few large studies examining and predicting the diversified cardiovascular/noncardiovascular comorbidity relationships with stroke. We investigated stroke risks in a very large prospective cohort of patients with multimorbidity, using two common clinical rules, a clinical multimorbid index and a machine-learning (ML) approach, accounting for the complex relationships among variables, including the dynamic nature of changing risk factors. METHODS: We studied a prospective U.S. cohort of 3,435,224 patients from medical databases in a 2-year investigation. Stroke outcomes were examined in relationship to diverse multimorbid conditions, demographic variables, and other inputs, with ML accounting for the dynamic nature of changing multimorbidity risk factors, two clinical risk scores, and a clinical multimorbid index. RESULTS: Common clinical risk scores had moderate and comparable c indices with stroke outcomes in the training and external validation samples (validation-CHADS2: c index 0.812, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.808-0.815; CHA2DS2-VASc: c index 0.809, 95% CI 0.805-0.812). A clinical multimorbid index had higher discriminant validity values for both the training/external validation samples (validation: c index 0.850, 95% CI 0.847-0.853). The ML-based algorithms yielded the highest discriminant validity values for the gradient boosting/neural network logistic regression formulations with no significant differences among the ML approaches (validation for logistic regression: c index 0.866, 95% CI 0.856-0.876). Calibration of the ML-based formulation was satisfactory across a wide range of predicted probabilities. Decision curve analysis demonstrated that clinical utility for the ML-based formulation was better than that for the two current clinical rules and the newly developed multimorbid tool. Also, ML models and clinical stroke risk scores were more clinically useful than the "treat all" strategy. CONCLUSION: Complex relationships of various comorbidities uncovered using a ML approach for diverse (and dynamic) multimorbidity changes have major consequences for stroke risk prediction. This approach may facilitate automated approaches for dynamic risk stratification in the significant presence of multimorbidity, helping in the decision-making process for risk assessment and integrated/holistic management.

Postimplementation Evaluation of a Machine Learning-Based Deterioration Risk Alert to Enhance Sepsis Outcome Improvements.

Machine learning-based early warning systems (EWSs) can detect clinical deterioration more accurately than point-score tools. In patients with sepsis, however, the timing and scope of sepsis interventions relative to an advanced EWS alert are not well understood. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the timing and frequency of fluid bolus therapy, new antibiotics, and Do Not Resuscitate (DNR) status relative to the time of an advanced EWS alert. We conducted 2 rounds of chart reviews of patients with an EWS alert admitted to community hospitals of a large integrated health system in Northern California (round 1: n = 21; round 2: n = 47). We abstracted patient characteristics and process measures of sepsis intervention and performed summary statistics. Sepsis decedents were older and sicker at admission and alert time. Most EWS alerts occurred near admission, and most sepsis interventions occurred before the first alert. Of 14 decedents, 12 (86%) had a DNR order before death. Fluid bolus therapy and new intravenous antibiotics frequently occurred before the alert, suggesting a potential overlap between sepsis care in the emergency department and the first alert following admission. Two tactics to minimize alerts that may not motivate new sepsis interventions are (1) locking out the alert during the immediate time after hospital admission; and (2) triaging and reviewing patients with alerts outside of the unit before activating a bedside response. Some decedents may have been on a palliative/end-of-life trajectory, because DNR orders were very common among decedents. Nurse leaders sponsoring or leading machine learning projects should consider tactics to reduce false-positive and clinically meaningless alerts dispatched to clinical staff.

A Research Roadmap: Connected Health as an Enabler of Cancer Patient Support.

The evidence that quality of life is a positive variable for the survival of cancer patients has prompted the interest of the health and pharmaceutical industry in considering that variable as a final clinical outcome. Sustained improvements in cancer care in recent years have resulted in increased numbers of people living with and beyond cancer, with increased attention being placed on improving quality of life for those individuals. Connected Health provides the foundations for the transformation of cancer care into a patient-centric model, focused on providing fully connected, personalized support and therapy for the unique needs of each patient. Connected Health creates an opportunity to overcome barriers to health care support among patients diagnosed with chronic conditions. This paper provides an overview of important areas for the foundations of the creation of a new Connected Health paradigm in cancer care. Here we discuss the capabilities of mobile and wearable technologies; we also discuss pervasive and persuasive strategies and device systems to provide multidisciplinary and inclusive approaches for cancer patients for mental well-being, physical activity promotion, and rehabilitation. Several examples already show that there is enthusiasm in strengthening the possibilities offered by Connected Health in persuasive and pervasive technology in cancer care. Developments harnessing the Internet of Things, personalization, patient-centered design, and artificial intelligence help to monitor and assess the health status of cancer patients. Furthermore, this paper analyses the data infrastructure ecosystem for Connected Health and its semantic interoperability with the Connected Health economy ecosystem and its associated barriers. Interoperability is essential when developing Connected Health solutions that integrate with health systems and electronic health records. Given the exponential business growth of the Connected Health economy, there is an urgent need to develop mHealth (mobile health) exponentially, making it both an attractive and challenging market. In conclusion, there is a need for user-centered and multidisciplinary standards of practice to the design, development, evaluation, and implementation of Connected Health interventions in cancer care to ensure their acceptability, practicality, feasibility, effectiveness, affordability, safety, and equity.