WTI, Brent or implied volatility index: Perspective of volatility spillover from oil market to Chinese stock market.

This study investigates the impact of oil market uncertainty on the volatility of Chinese sector indexes. We utilize commonly used realized volatility of WTI and Brent oil price along with the CBOE crude oil volatility index (OVX) to embody the oil market uncertainty. Based on the sample span from Mar 16, 2011 to Dec 31, 2019, this study utilizes vector autoregression (VAR) model to derive the impacts of the three different uncertainty indicators on Chinese stock volatilities. The empirical results show, for all sectors, the impact of OVX on sectors volatilities are more economically and statistically significant than that of realized volatility of both WTI and Brent oil prices, especially after the Chinese refined oil pricing reform of March 27, 2013. That implies OVX is more informative than traditional WTI and Brent oil prices with respect to volatility spillover from oil market to Chinese stock market. This study could provide some important implications for the participants in Chinese stock market.

Bananas, coffee and palm oil: The trade of agricultural commodities in the framework of the EU-Colombia free trade agreement.

Generally, research and studies about commodities focus on price trends, analysis in terms of international competitiveness, market position structure, rate of net exports, market share, and concentration index. This paper has developed an analysis of the most influential agricultural commodities traded from Colombia to European Union, which are bananas, coffee, and palm oil. Analyzing the economic and commercial effects in two traditional agricultural commodities from Colombia (bananas and coffee) with the rise of palm oil as a commodity in the trade relation with its partner; the European Union. The structure draws from the overview of general aspects and the behavior of Colombian foreign trade, as diversification of export products and trade partners, to focus on the characteristics of the trade relationship between the European Union and Colombia. The aim is analyze the proportional relation between bananas, coffee, and palm oil exported to the EU, according to three indicators, the volume of production, exports share, and trade value, from 2008 until 2019, identifying the trends before and after the implementation of the free trade agreement. Finally, with the coefficient correlation, determine the agricultural commodity that has the strongest and positive relationship with the total agricultural exports value from Colombia to the European Union.

Favorable Commercial and Health Behavior Impacts of a Healthy Vending Policy at an Australian University.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization recognizes universities as an important health-promotion setting, including in healthy food provision. Previous research shows that healthy food retail interventions also need to consider commercial sustainability, including financial outcomes, and should take a holistic approach to consumer experience. OBJECTIVE: Our aim was to determine the health behavior and commercial outcomes of a multicomponent traffic light-based healthy vending policy implemented as one part of a holistic university food policy. The hypothesis was that purchases of less healthy "red" beverages would decrease compared with predicted sales, that purchases of healthier "green" and "amber" alternatives would increase, and that there would be no change in revenue. DESIGN: A quasi-experimental design evaluated a real-world food policy using monthly aggregated sales data to compare pre-intervention (January 2016 to March 2018) and post-intervention period sales (December 2018 to December 2019). PARTICIPANTS/SETTING: Electronic sales data were collected from 51 beverage vending machines across 4 university campuses in Victoria, Australia. INTERVENTION: A multicomponent policy was implemented between April and November 2018. Beverages were classified using a voluntary state government traffic light framework. Policy included display ≤20% red beverages and ≥50% green beverages; machine traffic light labeling; health-promoting machine branding; review of machine placement; and recycled bottle packaging. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Changes in red, amber, and green volume sales, and revenue compared with predicated sales. STATISTICAL ANALYSES PERFORMED: Interrupted time series analysis of sales data compared post-policy sales with predicted sales. RESULTS: In the 13th month post-policy implementation, there was a 93.2% (95% CI +35.9% to +150.5%) increase in total beverage volume sold and an 88.6% (95% CI +39.2% to +138.1%) increase in revenue. There was no change in red beverage volume sold, but increases in green (+120.8%; 95% CI +59.0% to +182.6%) and amber (+223.2%; 95% CI +122.4% to +323.9%) volume sold. CONCLUSIONS: Sustained behavior change and commercial outcomes suggest that holistic vending interventions can effectively promote healthier beverage sales.

Return and volatility transmission between oil price shocks and agricultural commodities.

This paper studies the connectedness between oil price shocks and agricultural commodities. Our sample period ranges from January 2002 to July 2020, covering the three global crises; Global Financial Crisis, the European sovereign debt crisis and Covid-19 pandemic crisis. We employ Granger causality tests, and the static and dynamic connectedness spillover index methodology. We find that the shocks in oil prices are Granger-caused mainly by price changes of grains, live cattle, and wheat, while supply shock granger causes variations mostly in grain prices. We find that, from the point of view of static connectedness, for both, price and volatility spillovers, the livestock is the largest transmitter, while the lean hogs are the major receiver. Our dynamic analysis evidences that connectedness increases during the financial crisis period. Our results are potentially useful for investors, portfolios managers and policy makers.

Identification of Colombian coffee price dynamics.

The daily Colombian coffee price is a chaotic signal that has emerged from a complex economic system. This work proposes to identify its dynamics by means of two models: a single multiscroll Chua system and the coupling of two of these systems. Models are fine-tuned through an artificial bee colony optimization algorithm. Results show that this approach can reconstruct the price signal in terms of several statistics and points out a way for its long-term forecasting.

Spatial access to opioid treatment program and alcohol and cannabis outlets: analysis of missed doses of methadone during the first, second, and third 90 days of treatment.

Background: The burden of access to opioid treatment programs (OTPs) may change as clients become eligible for take-home privileges. Our previous study showed clients who lived more than 10-miles away from an OTP were more likely to miss methadone doses during the first 30 days of treatment. Proximity to alcohol and cannabis outlets may also negatively influence treatment adherence.Objective: To examine the association between access to this OTP, alcohol and cannabis outlets, and the number of missed methadone doses during the first, second, and third 90 days of treatment.Methods: The number of missed methadone doses was calculated for 752, 689, and 584 clients who remained in treatment, respectively, for at least 3, 6, and 9 months (50% female). Distance between client's home and the OTP, alcohol, and cannabis outlets was measured. Generalized linear models were employed.Results: Shorter distance from a client's residence to the OTP was associated with a decreased number of missed methadone doses during the first 90 days of treatment. Shorter distance to the closest cannabis retail outlet was associated with an increased number of missed methadone doses during the first and second 90 days of treatment. Shorter distance to the closest off-premise alcohol outlet was associated with an increased number of missed methadone doses during the third 90 days of treatment.Conclusions: Improving spatial accessibility of OTPs are essential to ensure treatment opportunities are available for individuals so affected. Exploring to what extent residing in areas that facilitate alcohol and cannabis availability can influence treatment adherence is warranted.

Ethnomycological knowledge among Kaqchikel, indigenous Maya people of Guatemalan Highlands.

BACKGROUND: The Guatemalan Highlands is a region of great but so far poorly known mycological diversity. People living in this area have long used wild fungi as a source of food and income. However, our knowledge of the ethnomycological practices of the Mayan peoples of Guatemala is still rudimental, especially if compared with information reported for the neighboring region of Mexico. Among the main indigenous groups of the Maya people inhabiting the highlands of Central Guatemala, stand the Kaqchikel, accounting for nearly 8% of the entire Guatemalan population. The main aim of this study was to record the traditional knowledge and use of edible wild mushrooms by inhabitants of the municipality of San Juan Sacatepéquez that lies at the heart of the Kaqchikel area in the central highlands of Guatemala, also describing the relevant selling practices and dynamics. A secondary aim was to compare the diversity and composition of the mushroom assemblage offered at the market with the macrofungal diversity of woods in the area. METHODOLOGY: This study is the result of 4 years of ethnomycological research, conducted through continuous visits to the municipal market and focused interviews with collectors and vendors. Field sampling in pine-oak forested areas surrounding San Juan Sacatepéquez, from where the mushrooms sold at the market are foraged, were also conducted, in the presence of local collectors. RESULTS: The results show a significant richness of species sold in the market, a network of commerce of purchase, sale, and resale of several species, with relatively stable prices, and knowledge about edible and inedible species that is transmitted mainly within the family nucleus. The business of selling mushrooms in the market is an exclusive activity of women, who are supplied by collectors or by other vendors. Fungi are sold and bought only as food, while no consumption of hallucinogenic mushrooms or medicinal mushrooms was recorded. Several species of Amanita, Cantharellus, Boletus, Lactarius, and Russula were those most commercialized in the 4 years of the study, but we also spotted fungi never reported before as consumed in the country, including Gastropila aff. fumosa (= Calvatia fumosa) and several species of Cortinarius. Field sampling in nearby pine-oak forests confirmed an elevated local macrofungal diversity. CONCLUSION: Our study unveiled the contemporary wealth of Kaqchikel culture for what concerns mushrooms, demonstrating that mushrooms continue to be culturally and economically important for these communities despite the erosion of traditional knowledge. Our results also confirmed the need to investigate in greater detail the Guatemalan mycodiversity that is vast and poorly known.

The palm oil industry and noncommunicable diseases.

Large-scale industries do not operate in isolation, but have tangible impacts on human and planetary health. An often overlooked actor in the fight against noncommunicable diseases is the palm oil industry. The dominance of palm oil in the food processing industry makes it the world's most widely produced vegetable oil. We applied the commercial determinants of health framework to analyse the palm oil industry. We highlight the industry's mutually profitable relationship with the processed food industry and its impact on human and planetary health, including detrimental cultivation practices that are linked to respiratory illnesses, deforestation, loss of biodiversity and pollution. This analysis illustrates many parallels to the contested nature of practices adopted by the alcohol and tobacco industries. The article concludes with suggested actions for researchers, policy-makers and the global health community to address and mitigate the negative impacts of the palm oil industry on human and planetary health.

Les grandes industries ne fonctionnent pas en vase clos; elles ont des effets tangibles sur la santé des individus et de la planète. Un acteur souvent négligé dans la lutte contre les maladies non transmissibles est l'industrie de l'huile de palme. Étant donné sa prédominance dans l'industrie alimentaire, l'huile de palme est l'huile végétale la plus largement produite au monde. Nous avons appliqué les déterminants commerciaux de la santé pour analyser l'industrie de l'huile de palme. Nous mettons en évidence la relation mutuellement profitable entre cette industrie et l'industrie des aliments transformés ainsi que ses effets sur la santé des individus et de la planète, et notamment des pratiques culturales néfastes liées à des maladies respiratoires, la déforestation, la diminution de la diversité biologique et la pollution. Cette analyse établit de nombreux parallèles avec la nature contestée de pratiques adoptées par les industries de l'alcool et du tabac. L'article se conclut par des propositions d'action pour que les chercheurs, les responsables politiques et la communauté mondiale de la santé examinent et atténuent les effets négatifs de l'industrie de l'huile de palme sur la santé des individus et de la planète.

Las industrias a gran escala no operan de forma aislada, sino que tienen un impacto tangible en la salud humana y del planeta. Un agente que a menudo se ignora en la lucha contra las enfermedades no contagiosas es la industria del aceite de palma. El predominio del aceite de palma en la industria del procesamiento de alimentos lo convierte en el aceite vegetal más producido del mundo. Se han aplicado los determinantes comerciales del marco de la salud para analizar la industria del aceite de palma. Cabe destacar la relación mutuamente beneficiosa de la industria con la industria de los alimentos procesados y su impacto en la salud humana y del planeta, incluidas las prácticas de cultivo perjudiciales que están relacionadas con las enfermedades respiratorias, la deforestación, la pérdida de biodiversidad y la contaminación. Este análisis ilustra muchos paralelismos con la naturaleza controvertida de las prácticas adoptadas por las industrias del alcohol y el tabaco. El artículo concluye con varias sugerencias de posibles medidas para que los investigadores, los responsables de la formulación de políticas y la comunidad mundial de la salud aborden y mitiguen los impactos negativos de la industria del aceite de palma en la salud humana y del planeta.

The moderating role of oil price changes in the effects of service trade and tourism on growth: the case of Turkey.

The aim of this study is to examine the role of oil price changes in the effects of services trade and tourism on real income growth in Turkey. Time series analysis using the 1960-2017 annual period has been adapted with this respect. Results confirm the long-term impacts of tourism and services trade sectors on real income growth in Turkey. Tourism and trade (both services and manufacturing) exert positively significant effects on the long-term performance of macroeconomic activity as measured by gross domestic product. Oil prices negatively impact on real income growth of Turkey. It is also found that oil prices negatively moderate the effects of foreign trade, services trade, and tourism on real income growth in Turkey. This finding reveals that significant effects of foreign trade, services trade, and tourism on real income are negatively influenced from oil price changes.

Household demand persistence for child micronutrient supplementation.

Addressing early-life micronutrient deficiencies can improve short- and long-term outcomes. In most contexts, private supply chains will be key to effective and efficient preventative supplementation. With established vendors, we conducted a 60-week market trial for a food-based micronutrient supplement in rural Burkina Faso with randomized price and non-price treatments. Repeat purchases - critical for effective supplementation - are extremely price sensitive. Loyalty cards boost demand more than price discounts, particularly in non-poor households where the father is the cardholder. A small minority of households achieved sufficient supplementation for their children through purely retail distribution, suggesting the need for more creative public-private delivery platforms informed by insights into household demand persistence and heterogeneity.

The development and implementation of a new import duty on palm oil to reduce non-communicable disease in Fiji.

BACKGROUND: Non communicable diseases (NCD) place a significant health burden on Pacific Island countries including Fiji. Policy interventions to curb NCDs have been implemented in Fiji including a 32% increase in the import duty on palm oil. This study aims to analyse the development and implementation of the increase in palm oil import duty in Fiji. Also, to document the policy process, identify barriers and facilitators during implementation and to examine the impact of the new import duty on import volumes. METHODS: Data were collected through key informant interviews with private stakeholders, government officials and supermarket managers. Transcripts were analysed thematically. Import volumes were analysed for the 2010-2015 period. RESULTS: Facilitators of policy development and implementation included stakeholder awareness of the health implications of palm oil, preparation of a comprehensive policy briefing paper, and inter-sectoral support and leadership. This decrease in the availability of palm oil was encouraging however, it may have been counteracted to some extent by industry relabelling the product as vegetable oil. CONCLUSIONS: Barriers to policy changes need to be anticipated during the policy development process. Whilst the decline in imports probably reduced population consumption, further research is needed to determine if this translated to a population wide reduction in saturated fat.

Addressing oil price changes through business profitability in oil and gas industry in the United Kingdom.

In this paper, we investigate how crude oil price and volume traded affected the profitability of oil and gas companies in the United Kingdom (UK) since the financial crisis started in 2008. The study benefit from insights of the financial statements, to develop a model that focuses on how changes in oil price impact corporate performance. In order to observe the financial indicators that influence the performance, as well as the effects that changes in oil prices and demand of crude oil have on the profitability of oil and gas companies, we apply comparative regression analysis, including the generalised method of moments estimation technique for panel data set. The sample is consisting of 31 oil and gas companies in the UK, and the period analysed is 2006-2014. Results show that profitable oil and gas companies managed to face the drop in oil price and recover, characterized by significant cash flows and stock turnover, efficient use of assets, and high solvency rates. Although the oil price and volume traded do not significantly affect profitability and other financial ratios, if the oil price continues to decrease, it would permanently alter both the UK economy and oil and gas companies. In order to survive, companies make drastic cuts and defer essential investments, often at the long-term expense of asset performance. This study is important in a world where the energy consumption steadily grew over time. However, the renewable energy is cheaper and more environmentally friendly, and thus, countries where oil and gas industry is one of the most popular sectors face an economic decline. These results could be useful for investors, managers or decision makers, reclaiming strategic decisions in the current uncertain and volatile environment.

Drug Policy in Estonia.

The aim of this article was to present a general overview of the health care system as well as pricing and reimbursement environment in Estonia. In Estonia the main stakeholders in the pharmaceutical sector are the Ministry of Social Affairs, the State Agency of Medicine, and the Estonian Health Insurance Fund. The national health insurance scheme is public, and approximately 95% of the population is covered by it. It is a social insurance, and universal and equal access to health care based on national health insurance is granted. The Estonian Health Insurance Fund is financed from social taxes and state budget and is responsible for the reimbursement of pharmaceuticals in the hospital setting. It acts as an advisory body to the Ministry of Social Affairs on the process of reimbursement regarding cost effectiveness. Pharmaceutical products' reimbursement dossiers submission and decisions are dealt with on the state level. Health technology assessment analyses are required by the authorities and the Baltic Guidelines for Economic Evaluations of Pharmaceuticals have to be followed. The reimbursement lists are positive lists only, and the criteria upon which reimbursement decisions are based are officially defined. Revisions of reimbursement are performed depending on the need and they are based on the prices of reference countries.

Retail Outlets Using Telehealth Pose Significant Policy Questions For Health Care.

Telehealth will enable new models of care to emerge as health care continues to undergo significant changes. Health insurers, providers, and pharmacy benefit managers are merging, which will consolidate market share among fewer large companies. Recently, retail giants such as Walmart and Amazon have announced plans to compete in the health care industry. As these organizations seek to provide convenient and affordable access to care, telehealth will play a significant role in the competition for market share and will create new opportunities for innovation. Additionally, the increasing adoption of telehealth by retail outlets and vertically integrated health care organizations raises new policy questions in such areas as information access, privacy and security, the combination of health and consumer data, and ways to foster provider independence amid increasing consolidation.

Tax policy and tax protest in 20 rich democracies, 1980-2010.

Why are some policies protested more than others? New data on protest against eight categories of taxation in twenty rich democracies from 1980 to 2010 reveal that economically and socially concentrated taxes are protested most, whereas taxes that confer entitlement to benefits are protested least. Other features of policy design often thought to affect the salience or visibility of costs are unimportant for explaining the frequency of protest. These findings overturn a folk theory that political sociology has inherited from classical political economy; clarify the conditions under which policy threats provoke protest; and shed light on how welfare states persist.

Prediction of Change in Prescription Ingredient Costs and Co-payment Rates under a Reference Pricing System in South Korea.

BACKGROUND: The reference pricing system (RPS) establishes reference prices within interchangeable reference groupings. For drugs priced higher than the reference point, patients pay the difference between the reference price and the total price. OBJECTIVES: To predict potential changes in prescription ingredient costs and co-payment rates after implementation of an RPS in South Korea. METHODS: Korean National Health Insurance claims data were used as a baseline to develop possible RPS models. Five components of a potential RPS policy were varied: reference groupings, reference pricing methods, co-pay reduction programs, manufacturer price reductions, and increased drug substitutions. The potential changes for prescription ingredient costs and co-payment rates were predicted for the various scenarios. RESULTS: It was predicted that transferring the difference (total price minus reference price) from the insurer to patients would reduce ingredient costs from 1.4% to 22.8% for the third-party payer (government), but patient co-payment rates would increase from a baseline of 20.4% to 22.0% using chemical groupings and to 25.0% using therapeutic groupings. Savings rates in prescription ingredient costs (government and patient combined) were predicted to range from 1.6% to 13.7% depending on various scenarios. Although the co-payment rate would increase, a 15% price reduction by manufacturers coupled with a substitution rate of 30% would result in a decrease in the co-payment amount (change in absolute dollars vs. change in rates). CONCLUSIONS: Our models predicted that the implementation of RPS in South Korea would lead to savings in ingredient costs for the third-party payer and co-payments for patients with potential scenarios.

Power, policy and the Prunus africana bark trade, 1972-2015.

ETHNOPHARMACOLOGICAL RELEVANCE: After almost 50 years of international trade in wild harvested medicinal bark from Africa and Madagascar, the example of Prunus africana holds several lessons for both policy and practice in the fields of forestry, conservation and rural development. Due to recent CITES restrictions on P. africana exports from Burundi, Kenya and Madagascar, coupled with the lifting of the 2007 European Union (EU) ban in 2011, Cameroon's share of the global P. africana bark trade has risen from an average of 38% between 1995 and 2004, to 72.6% (658.6 metric tons) in 2012. Cameroon is therefore at the center of this international policy arena. METHODS AND MATERIALS: This paper draws upon several approaches, combining knowledge in working with P. africana over a 30-year period with a thorough literature review and updated trade data with "ground-truthing" in the field in 2013 and 2014. This enabled the construction of a good perspective on trade volumes (1991-2012), bark prices (and value-chain data) and the gaps between research reports and practice. Two approaches provided excellent lenses for a deeper understanding of policy failure and the "knowing-doing gap" in the P. africana case. A similar approach to Médard's (1992) analyses of power, politics and African development was taken and secondly, studies of commodity chains that assess the power relations that coalesce around different commodities (Ribot, 1998; Ribot and Peluso, 2003). RESULTS: Despite the need to conserve genetically and chemically diverse P. africana, wild populations are vulnerable, even in several "protected areas" in Burundi, Cameroon, the Democratic Republic of Congo and in the forest reserves of Madagascar. Secondly, hopes of decentralized governance of this forest product are misplaced due to elite capture, market monopolies and subsidized management regimes. At the current European price, for P. africana bark (US$6 per kg) for example, the 2012 bark quota (658.675t) from Cameroon alone was worth over US$3.9 million, with the majority of this accruing to a single company. In contrast to lucrative bark exports, the livelihood benefits and financial returns to local harvesters from wild harvest are extremely low. For example, in 2012, the 48 active harvesters working within Mount Cameroon National Park (MCNP) received less than 1US$ per day from bark harvests, due to a net bark price of 0.33 US$ per kg (or 43% of the farm gate price for wild harvested bark). In addition, the costs of inventory, monitoring and managing sustainable wild harvests are far greater than the benefits to harvesters. CONCLUSION: Without the current substantial international donor subsidies, sustainable harvest cannot be sustained. What is required to supply the current and future market is to develop separate, traceable P. africana bark supply chains based on cultivated stocks. On-farm production would benefit thousands of small-scale farmers cultivating P. africana, including local women, for whom wild harvesting is too onerous. This change requires CITES and EU support and would catalyze P. africana cultivation in across several montane African countries and Madagascar, increasing farm-gate prices to harvesters compared to economic returns from wild harvest.

Medicinal plants sold in the markets of Antananarivo, Madagascar.

BACKGROUND: This study focuses on the large outdoor markets of the capital of Madagascar, Antananarivo. As the largest metropolitan area in Madagascar with a population of nearly two million, the region has great capacity for consumption of medicinal plant remedies despite numerous pharmacies. Medicinal plant use spans all socioeconomic levels, and the diverse metropolitan population allows us to study a wide variety of people who consume these plants for medical purposes. The purpose of this study is to identify and generate a list of medicinal plants sold in the traditional markets with a focus on those collected in the forests around Antananarivo, get an idea of the quantities of medicinal plants sold in the markets around Antananarivo, and assess the economy of the medicinal plant markets. METHODS: In order to determine which medicinal plants are most consumed in Antananarivo, ethnobotanical enquiries were conducted in the five main markets of the capital city. Ethnobotanical surveys were conducted with medicinal plant traders, suppliers, harvesters and cultivators, with voucher specimens created from the plants discussed. Trade circuit information was established and the income generated by the trade of some of the species was assessed. RESULTS: The inventory of the Antananarivo markets resulted in a list of 89 commercialized plant species. Ten of the 89 were mentioned by 60-100 % of vendors. Profitability for vendors is high and competitive with other salaried positions within Antananarivo. Transportation costs are also high and therefore lower profitability for other members in the supply chain. CONCLUSIONS: The markets of Antananarivo have always played a vital cultural role in the lives of urban Malagasy, but our study shows they also play an economic role not only for urban residents but rural harvesters as well. Continued research and monitoring of the non-timber forest products trade in Antananarivo is needed to better understand the impact of trade on the wild plant populations.