Barbarigenesis and the collapse of complex societies: Rome and after.

"Barbarism" is perhaps best understood as a recurring syndrome among peripheral societies in response to the threats and opportunities presented by more developed neighbors. This article develops a mathematical model of barbarigenesis-the formation of "barbarian" societies adjacent to more complex societies-and its consequences, and applies the model to the case of Europe in the first millennium CE. A starting point is a game (developed by Hirshleifer) in which two players allocate their resources either to producing wealth or to fighting over wealth. The paradoxical result is that a richer and potentially more powerful player may lose out to a poorer player, because the opportunity cost of fighting is greater for the former. In a more elaborate spatial model with many players, the outcome is a wealth-power mismatch: central regions have comparatively more wealth than power, peripheral regions have comparatively more power than wealth. In a model of historical dynamics, a wealth-power mismatch generates a long-lasting decline in social complexity, sweeping from more to less developed regions, until wealth and power come to be more closely aligned. This article reviews how well this model fits the historical record of late Antiquity and the early Middle Ages in Europe both quantitatively and qualitatively. The article also considers some of the history left out of the model, and why the model doesn't apply to the modern world.

Unconditional cash transfers for assistance in humanitarian disasters: effect on use of health services and health outcomes in low- and middle-income countries.

BACKGROUND: Unconditional cash transfers (UCTs) are a common social protection intervention that increases income, a key social determinant of health, in disaster contexts in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). OBJECTIVES: To assess the effects of UCTs in improving health services use, health outcomes, social determinants of health, health care expenditure, and local markets and infrastructure in LMICs. We also compared the relative effectiveness of UCTs delivered in-hand with in-kind transfers, conditional cash transfers, and UCTs paid through other mechanisms. SEARCH METHODS: We searched 17 academic databases, including the Cochrane Public Health Group Specialised Register, the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews (The Cochrane Library 2014, Issue 7), MEDLINE, and EMBASE between May and July 2014 for any records published up until 4 May 2014. We also searched grey literature databases, organisational websites, reference lists of included records, and academic journals, as well as seeking expert advice. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included randomised and quasi-randomised controlled trials (RCTs), as well as cohort, interrupted time series, and controlled before-and-after studies (CBAs) on UCTs in LMICs. Primary outcomes were the use of health services and health outcomes. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two authors independently screened all potentially relevant records for inclusion criteria, extracted the data, and assessed the included studies' risk of bias. We requested missing information from the study authors. MAIN RESULTS: Three studies (one cluster-RCT and two CBAs) comprising a total of 13,885 participants (9640 children and 4245 adults) as well as 1200 households in two LMICs (Nicaragua and Niger) met the inclusion criteria. They examined five UCTs between USD 145 and USD 250 (or more, depending on household characteristics) that were provided by governmental, non-governmental or research organisations during experiments or pilot programmes in response to droughts. Two studies examined the effectiveness of UCTs, and one study examined the relative effectiveness of in-hand UCTs compared with in-kind transfers and UCTs paid via mobile phone. Due to the methodologic limitations of the retrieved records, which carried a high risk of bias and very serious indirectness, we considered the body of evidence to be of very low overall quality and thus very uncertain across all outcomes.Depending on the specific health services use and health outcomes examined, the included studies either reported no evidence that UCTs had impacted the outcome, or they reported that UCTs improved the outcome. No single outcome was reported by more than one study. There was a very small increase in the proportion of children who received vitamin or iron supplements (mean difference (MD) 0.10 standard deviations (SDs), 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.06 to 0.14) and on the child's home environment, as well as clinically meaningful, very large reductions in the chance of child death (hazard ratio (HR) 0.26, 95% CI 0.10 to 0.66) and the incidence of severe acute malnutrition (HR 0.44, 95% CI 0.24 to 0.80). There was also a moderate reduction in the number of days children spent sick in bed (MD - 0.36 SDs, 95% CI - 0.62 to - 0.10). There was no evidence for any effect on the proportion of children receiving deworming drugs, height for age among children, adults' level of depression, or the quality of parenting behaviour. No adverse effects were identified. The included comparisons did not examine several important outcomes, including food security and equity impacts.With regard to the relative effectiveness of UCTs compared with a food transfer providing a relatively high total caloric value, there was no evidence that a UCT had any effect on the chance of child death (HR 2.27, 95% CI 0.69 to 7.44) or severe acute malnutrition (HR 1.15, 95% CI 0.67 to 1.99). A UCT paid in-hand led to a clinically meaningful, moderate increase in the household dietary diversity score, compared with the same UCT paid via mobile phone (difference-in-differences estimator 0.43 scores, 95% CI 0.06 to 0.80), but there was no evidence for an effect on social determinants of health, health service expenditure, or local markets and infrastructure. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Additional high-quality evidence (especially RCTs of humanitarian disaster contexts other than droughts) is required to reach clear conclusions regarding the effectiveness and relative effectiveness of UCTs for improving health services use and health outcomes in humanitarian disasters in LMICs.

Climate change. A global threat to cardiopulmonary health.

Recent changes in the global climate system have resulted in excess mortality and morbidity, particularly among susceptible individuals with preexisting cardiopulmonary disease. These weather patterns are projected to continue and intensify as a result of rising CO2 levels, according to the most recent projections by climate scientists. In this Pulmonary Perspective, motivated by the American Thoracic Society Committees on Environmental Health Policy and International Health, we review the global human health consequences of projected changes in climate for which there is a high level of confidence and scientific evidence of health effects, with a focus on cardiopulmonary health. We discuss how many of the climate-related health effects will disproportionally affect people from economically disadvantaged parts of the world, who contribute relatively little to CO2 emissions. Last, we discuss the financial implications of climate change solutions from a public health perspective and argue for a harmonized approach to clean air and climate change policies.

Preventable disasters in the offshore oil industry: from Piper Alpha to Deepwater Horizon.

This article compares two industrial disasters in the offshore oil industry, the explosion and fire on Piper Alpha off the coast of Scotland in 1988, the world's worst offshore disaster, and the blowout and explosions on Deepwater Horizon in the Gulf of Mexico in 2010. It attempts to answer a simple question: Given the enormity of the first tragedy and the careful analysis of its circumstances and causes, why were the lessons of previous failure not learned by this globally organized industry, in the very heartland in the United States? The answer tells us much about the ability of corporate capital to configure regulatory regimes in its own interests and to do so in a manner that continues to threaten the safety and well-being of its employees and the wider environment.

Remodelling reparation: changes in the compensation of victims of natural catastrophes in Belgium and the Netherlands.

The paper presents a comparative analysis of the development and present state of compensation for victims of catastrophes in Belgium and the Netherlands. These two neighbouring countries have both seen legislative changes in this field in recent years, albeit with different outcomes. The paper thus analyses to what extent the two compensation scheme structures allow for conclusions as to the comparative benefits of a comprehensive insurance scheme for natural disasters. From the perspective of law and economics, the evolution of private insurance and public intervention through compensation funds, the preference for private or public solutions and the actual financing of these are examined. Drawing on practical experience, such as the case of flood risks, the solutions are tested in view of incentive-based financing. The paper concludes that the private insurance market is more developed in Belgium than it is in the Netherlands, where the reform process has not yet ended.

"The herald of prosperity": tracing the boll weevil myth in Alabama.

As scholars and singers have pointed out in monographs and folk songs, the cotton boll weevil was a devastating force on southern farming and rural life. No symbol is more indicative of this destruction than Enterprise, Alabama's boll weevil monument. This essay examines not how the cotton pest destroyed the region's staple crop, but how women and men across race and class lines understood the beetle's threat and used it to their advantage. The statue, like the countless blues and folk songs about the pest, was a cultural statement that shaped the understanding of the bug itself and its supposed transformation of southern agriculture. By examining the local conditions that gave rise to dramatic, albeit short-lived, crop diversification, and in turn the monument's erection, this essay uncovers the ways in which the boll weevil myth was as important a force on southern life as the long-snouted beetle itself.

The early psychological impacts of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill on Florida and Alabama communities.

BACKGROUND: Although public concern has focused on the environmental impact of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, the public health impact on a broad range of coastal communities is minimally known. OBJECTIVE: We sought to determine the acute level of distress (depression, anxiety), mechanisms of adjustment (coping, resilience), and perceived risk in a community indirectly impacted by the oil spill and to identify the extent to which economic loss may explain these factors. METHODS: Using a community-based participatory model, we performed standardized assessments of psychological distress (mood, anxiety), coping, resilience, neurocognition, and perceived risk on residents of fishing communities who were indirectly impacted (n = 71, Franklin County, Florida) or directly exposed (n = 23, Baldwin County, Alabama) to coastal oil. We also compared findings for participants who reported income stability (n = 47) versus spill-related income loss (n = 47). RESULTS: We found no significant differences between community groups in terms of psychological distress, adjustment, neurocognition, or environmental worry. Residents of both communities displayed clinically significant depression and anxiety. Relative to those with stable incomes, participants with spill-related income loss had significantly worse scores on tension/anxiety, depression, fatigue, confusion, and total mood disturbance scales; had higher rates of depression; were less resilient; and were more likely to use behavioral disengagement as a coping strategy. CONCLUSIONS: Current estimates of human health impacts associated with the oil spill may underestimate the psychological impact in Gulf Coast communities that did not experience direct exposure to oil. Income loss after the spill may have a greater psychological health impact than the presence of oil on the immediately adjacent shoreline.

An empirical analysis of IOPCF oil spill cost data.

This paper reports on recent analysis of oil spill cost data assembled by the International Oil Pollution Compensation Fund (IOPCF). Regression analyses of clean-up costs and total costs have been carried out, after taking care to convert to current prices and remove outliers. In the first place, the results of this analysis have been useful in the context of the ongoing discussion within the International Maritime Organization (IMO) on environmental risk evaluation criteria. Furthermore, these results can be useful in estimating the benefit of regulations that deal with the protection of marine environment and oil pollution prevention.

The Prestige oil spill and its economic impact on the Galician fishing sector.

The sinking of the Prestige oil tanker on 18 November 2002 off the coast of Galicia, Spain, had important economic, environmental and social ramifications. The aim of this paper is to carry out an initial analysis of the costs related to a halt in fishing activities in Galicia between November 2002 and December 2003. This involves three different steps: an assessment of the cost of the preventative and palliative measures introduced by Spanish public administrations (compensation for affected fishermen and shellfish fisherman); an indirect evaluation of the implications of the disaster (via a study of data on production); and a direct appraisal of the economic impact of the event (reduction in income), using questionnaires completed by a representative sample of fishermen and shellfish fisherman. The results obtained from these three methods of estimating losses are compatible. By December 2003, losses to the Galician fishing sector stood at an estimated EUR 76 million.