Correlation between airborne pollen data and the risk of tick-borne encephalitis in northern Italy.

Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) is caused by a flavivirus that infects animals including humans. In Europe, the TBE virus circulates enzootically in natural foci among ticks and rodent hosts. The abundance of ticks depends on the abundance of rodent hosts, which in turn depends on the availability of food resources, such as tree seeds. Trees can exhibit large inter-annual fluctuations in seed production (masting), which influences the abundance of rodents the following year, and the abundance of nymphal ticks two years later. Thus, the biology of this system predicts a 2-year time lag between masting and the incidence of tick-borne diseases such as TBE. As airborne pollen abundance is related to masting, we investigated whether inter-annual variation in pollen load could be directly correlated with inter-annual variation in the incidence of TBE in human populations with a 2-year time lag. We focused our study on the province of Trento (northern Italy), where 206 TBE cases were notified between 1992 and 2020. We tested the relationship between TBE incidence and pollen load collected from 1989 to 2020 for 7 different tree species common in our study area. Through univariate analysis we found that the pollen quantities recorded two years prior for two tree species, hop-hornbeam (Ostrya carpinifolia) and downy oak (Quercus pubescens), were positively correlated with TBE emergence (R2 = 0.2) while a multivariate model with both tree species better explained the variation in annual TBE incidence (R2 = 0.34). To the best of our knowledge, this is the first attempt at quantifying the correlation between pollen quantities and the incidence of TBE in human populations. As pollen loads are collected by widespread aerobiological networks using standardized procedures, our study could be easily replicated to test their potential as early warning system for TBE and other tick-borne diseases.

The role of lambs in louping-ill virus amplification.

In some areas of Scotland, the prevalence of louping-ill virus has not decreased despite the vaccination of replacement ewes for over 30 years. The role of unvaccinated lambs in viral persistence was examined through a combination of an empirical study of infection rates of lambs and mathematical modelling. Serological sampling revealed that most lambs were protected by colostral immunity at turnout in May/June but were fully susceptible by the end of September. Between 8 and 83% of lambs were infected over the first season, with seroconversion rates greater in late rather than early summer. The proportion of lambs that could have amplified the louping-ill virus was low, however, because high initial titres of colostral antibody on farms with a high force of infection gave protection for several months. A simple mathematical model suggested that the relationship between the force of infection and the percentage of lambs that became viraemic was not linear and that the maximum percentage of viraemic lambs occurred at moderately high infection rates. Examination of the conditions required for louping-ill persistence suggested that the virus could theoretically persist in a sheep flock with over 370 lambs, if the grazing season was longer than 130 days. In practice, however, lamb viraemia is not a general explanation for louping-ill virus persistence as these conditions are not met in most management systems and because the widespread use of acaracides in most tick-affected hill farming systems reduces the number of ticks feeding successfully.