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1.
Radiography (Lond) ; 30(3): 889-895, 2024 May.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38603992

RESUMO

INTRODUCTION: Acoustic noise from magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) can cause hearing loss and needs to be mitigated to ensure the safety of patients and personnel. Capturing MR personnel's insights is crucial for guiding the development and future applications of noise-reduction technology. This study aimed to explore how MR radiographers manage acoustic noise in clinical MR settings. METHODS: Using a qualitative design, we conducted semi-structured individual interviews with fifteen MR radiographers from fifteen hospitals around Sweden. We focused on the clinical implications of participants' noise management, using an interpretive description approach. We also identified sociotechnical interactions between People, Environment, Tools, and Tasks (PETT) by adopting a Human Factors/Ergonomics framework. Interview data were analyzed inductively with thematic analysis (Braun and Clarke). RESULTS: The analysis generated three main themes regarding MR radiographers' noise management: (I) Navigating Occupational Noise: Risk Management and Adaptation; (II) Protecting the Patient and Serving the Exam, and (III) Establishing a Safe Healthcare Environment with Organizational Support. CONCLUSION: This study offers insights into radiographers' experiences of managing acoustic noise within MRI, and the associated challenges. Radiographers have adopted multiple strategies to protect patients and themselves from adverse noise-related effects. However, they require tools and support to manage this effectively, suggesting a need for organizations to adopt more proactive, holistic approaches to safety initiatives. IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE: The radiographers stressed the importance of a soundproofed work environment to minimize occupational adverse health effects and preserve work performance. They acknowledge noise as a common contributor to patient distress and discomfort. Providing options like earplugs, headphones, mold putty, software-optimized "quiet" sequences, and patient information were important tools. Fostering a safety culture requires proactive safety efforts and support from colleagues and management.


Assuntos
Entrevistas como Assunto , Imageamento por Ressonância Magnética , Ruído Ocupacional , Pesquisa Qualitativa , Humanos , Suécia , Feminino , Masculino , Adulto , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Perda Auditiva Provocada por Ruído/prevenção & controle , Exposição Ocupacional/prevenção & controle , Gestão de Riscos
2.
Sci Total Environ ; 915: 169953, 2024 Mar 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38215849

RESUMO

Biosolids, a product of wastewater treatment, provide a valuable resource, but to optimize the use of this resource it is necessary to manage risks posed to public health and the environment. Key requirements include identifying contaminant sources and providing barriers to ensure containment and treatment while maintaining the viability and value of biosolids products. Responsibility for managing biosolids is the remit of many stakeholders but primarily it rests with private and public wastewater facilities. The global variabilities in the way biosolids resources are acknowledged, applied, and managed are substantial. For example, some countries are increasing incineration because of their ability to remove contaminants while others have experienced a proportional decrease in incineration dependent on industrial resources or regarding resource recovery costs and needs. Some jurisdictions focus on energy recovery and others on land application. A risk management framework is a tool that may provide a suitable holistic approach to biosolids management. With this focus, current instruments in practice globally to manage biosolids were assessed for the degree to which they have adopted a risk management framework. To form a basis for this assessment a set of criteria was established by concept mapping several internationally recognized standards. Guidelines for a range of developed and developing countries were then assessed against these criteria. That process enabled the identification of which current practices were holistic in terms of applying biosolids risk management principles from production to end-use. Through this process, risk management gaps and vulnerabilities were identified. The results reveal that the incorporation of risk standards into risk management frameworks around the world is variable for the presence of risk criteria and the scale of detail provided. Contaminant concentrations need perspective within the changing risk landscape for stakeholders and the environment while jointly the opportunities and contaminant challenges require solutions that balance risks.


Assuntos
Gestão de Riscos , Purificação da Água , Biossólidos , Águas Residuárias , Saúde Pública
3.
Sci Total Environ ; 912: 169331, 2024 Feb 20.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38103619

RESUMO

In today's era, nanoparticles (NPs) have become an integral part of human life, finding extensive applications in various fields of science, pharmacy, medicine, industry, electronics, and communication. The increasing popularity of NP usage worldwide is a testament to their tremendous potential. However, the widespread deployment of NPs unavoidably leads to their release into the environmental matrices, resulting in persistence in ecosystems and bioaccumulation in organisms. Understanding the environmental behavior of NPs poses a significant challenge due to their nanoscale size. Given the current environmental releases of NPs, known negative consequences, and the limited knowledge available for risk management, comprehending the toxicity of NPs in ecosystems is both awaiting and crucial. The present review aims to unravel the potential environmental influences of nano-scaled materials, and provides in-depth inferences of the current knowledge and understanding in this field. The review comprehensively summarizes the sources, fate, transport, toxicity, health risks, and remediation solutions associated with NP pollution in aquatic and soil ecosystems. Furthermore, it addresses the knowledge gaps and outlines further investigation priorities for the sustainable control of NP pollution in these environments. By gaining a holistic understanding of these aspects, we can work toward ensuring the responsible and sustainable use of NPs in today's fast-growing world.


Assuntos
Ecossistema , Nanopartículas , Humanos , Nanopartículas/toxicidade , Solo , Poluição Ambiental , Gestão de Riscos
4.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38131694

RESUMO

This work deals with a systematic review of the literature data concerning the theme of integrated approaches to occupational health and safety management, with particular reference to the programming of assistance plans, which guide companies' organizational choices by also addressing the principles of Total Worker Health. In the current regulatory framework on this issue, the UNI ISO 45001: 2018 standard "Occupational health and safety management systems-Requirements and guidance for use" (published on 12 March 2018)" assumes relevance, defining dynamic approaches to occupational health and safety management systems-paying particular attention to external contextual factors that may influence corporate organizational decisions. The adoption of these systems is not mandatory but allows companies to fulfill their duties in terms of health and safety at work through an organizational approach aimed at the awareness, involvement, and participation of all subjects of the company prevention system, progressing past the phase of mere technological and prescriptive approaches towards a holistic vision of prevention that places the person at the center of preventive actions. In this context, the role of institutional networks and socio-economic partnerships assumes particular importance via the activation of territorial assistance interventions to support companies aimed at improving risk management levels. To this end, the importance of verifying the effectiveness of assistance interventions emerges from the scientific debate using indicators such as quantitative indicators aimed at measuring the performance of all phases of an intervention, with particular attention to their effects in terms of the improved solutions developed.


Assuntos
Saúde Ocupacional , Humanos , Gestão de Riscos , Gestão da Segurança
6.
Reumatol Clin (Engl Ed) ; 19(10): 533-548, 2023 Dec.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38008602

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: To present recommendations based on the available evidence and the consensus of experts, for risk management of biological treatment and JAK inhibitors in patients with rheumatoid arthritis. METHODS: Clinical research questions relevant to the purpose of the document were identified. These questions were reformulated in PICO format (patient, intervention, comparison, outcome or outcome) by a panel of experts, selected based on their experience in the area. A systematic review of the evidence was carried out, grading according to the GRADE criteria (Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation). Specific recommendations were then formulated. RESULTS: 6 PICO questions were proposed by the panel of experts based on their clinical relevance and the existence of recent information regarding the risk of occurrence of serious infections, the risk of reactivation of the hepatitis B virus, the risk of reactivation of the virus varicella-zoster, the risk of appearance of skin (melanoma and non-melanoma) or haematological cancer, the risk of appearance of thromboembolic disease and the risk of progression of the human papilloma virus. A total of 28 recommendations were formulated, structured by question, based on the evidence found and the consensus of the experts. CONCLUSIONS: The SER recommendations on risk management of treatment with biologic therapies and JAK inhibitors in rheumatoid arthritis are presented.


Assuntos
Artrite Reumatoide , Inibidores de Janus Quinases , Reumatologia , Humanos , Artrite Reumatoide/tratamento farmacológico , Artrite Reumatoide/epidemiologia , Terapia Biológica , Inibidores de Janus Quinases/uso terapêutico , Gestão de Riscos , Revisões Sistemáticas como Assunto , Guias de Prática Clínica como Assunto
7.
Anaesth Intensive Care ; 51(6): 408-421, 2023 Nov.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37786341

RESUMO

Regional anaesthesia is an essential tool in the armamentarium for paediatric anaesthesia. While largely safe and effective, a range of serious yet preventable adverse events can occur. Incidence and risk factors have been described, but few detailed case series exist relating to paediatric regional anaesthesia. Across Australia and New Zealand, a web-based anaesthesia incident reporting system enables voluntary reporting of detailed anaesthesia-related events in adults and children. From this database, all reports involving paediatric regional anaesthesia (age less than 17 years) were retrieved. Perioperative events and their outcomes were reviewed and analysed. When offered, the reported contributing or alleviating factors relating to the case and its management were noted. This paper provides a summary of these reports alongside an evidence review to support safe practice. Of 8000 reported incidents, 26 related to paediatric regional anaesthesia were identified. There were no deaths or reports of permanent harm. Nine reports of local anaesthetic systemic toxicity were included, seven equipment and technical issues, six errors in which regional anaesthesia made an indirect contribution and four logistical and communication issues. Most incidents involved single-shot techniques or a neuraxial approach. Common themes included variable local anaesthetic dosing, cognitive overload, inadequate preparation and communication breakdown. Neonates, infants and medically complex children were disproportionately represented, highlighting their inherent risk profile. A range of preventable incidents are reported relating to patient, systems and human factors, demonstrating several areas for improvement. Risk stratification, application of existing dosing and administration guidelines, and effective teamwork and communication are encouraged to ensure safe regional anaesthesia in the paediatric population.


Assuntos
Anestesia por Condução , Anestesiologia , Lactente , Recém-Nascido , Adulto , Criança , Humanos , Adolescente , Anestésicos Locais , Anestesia por Condução/efeitos adversos , Gestão de Riscos , Anestesia Local
8.
Genet Med ; 25(11): 100945, 2023 11.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37515473

RESUMO

PURPOSE: Following disclosure of pathogenic or likely pathogenic variants in hereditary cancer genes, patients face cancer risk management decisions. Through this mixed-methods study, we investigated cancer risk management decisions among females with pathogenic or likely pathogenic variants in PALB2, CHEK2, and ATM to understand why some patients follow National Comprehensive Cancer Network guidelines, whereas others do not. METHODS: Survey and interview data were cross-analyzed using a 3-stage approach. Identified factors were used to conduct coincidence analysis and differentiate between combinations of factors that result in following or not following guidelines. RESULTS: Of the 13 participants who underwent guideline inconsistent prophylactic surgery, 12 fit 1 of 3 unique patterns: (1) cancer-related anxiety in the absence of trust in care, (2) provider recommending surgery inconsistent with National Comprehensive Cancer Network guidelines, or (3) surgery occurring before genetic testing. Two unique patterns were found among 18 of 20 participants who followed guidelines: (1) anxiety along with trust in care or (2) lack of anxiety and no prophylactic surgery before testing. CONCLUSION: Health care provider recommendations and trust in care may influence whether individuals receive care that is congruent with risk levels conferred by specific genes. Interventions are needed to improve provider knowledge, patient trust in non-surgical care, and patient anxiety.


Assuntos
Predisposição Genética para Doença , Neoplasias , Humanos , Feminino , Testes Genéticos/métodos , Risco , Neoplasias/genética , Gestão de Riscos , Quinase do Ponto de Checagem 2/genética , Proteína do Grupo de Complementação N da Anemia de Fanconi/genética , Proteínas Mutadas de Ataxia Telangiectasia/genética
9.
Chiropr Man Therap ; 31(1): 9, 2023 02 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36793096

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Safety incident (SI) reporting and learning via incident reporting systems (IRSs) is used to identify areas for patient safety improvement. The chiropractic patient incident reporting and learning system (CPiRLS) is an online IRS that was launched in the UK in 2009 and, from time to time, has been licensed for use by the national members of the European Chiropractors' Union (ECU), members of Chiropractic Australia and a Canada-based research group. The primary aim of this project was to analyse the SIs submitted to CPiRLS over a 10-year period to identify key areas for patient safety improvement. METHOD: All SIs reported to CPiRLS between April 2009 and March 2019 were extracted and analysed. Descriptive statistics were used to describe: (1) the frequency of SI reporting and learning by the chiropractic profession, and (2) the character of reported SIs. Key areas for patient safety improvement were developed following a mixed methods approach. RESULTS: A total of 268 SIs were recorded on the database over the 10-year period, 85% of which originated from the UK. Evidence of learning was documented in 143 (53.4%) SIs. The largest subcategory of SIs related to post-treatment distress or pain (n = 71, 26.5%). Seven key areas for patient improvement were developed including: (1) patient trip/fall, (2) post treatment distress/pain, (3) negative effects during treatment, (4) significant post-treatment effects, (5) syncope, (6) failure to recognize serious pathology, and (7) continuity of care. CONCLUSION: The low number of SIs reported over a 10-year period suggests significant under-reporting, however, an upward trend was identified over the 10-year period. Several key areas for patient safety improvement have been identified for dissemination to the chiropractic profession. Improved reporting practice needs to be facilitated to improve the value and validity of reporting data. CPiRLS is important in identifying key areas for patient safety improvement.


Assuntos
Quiroprática , Segurança do Paciente , Humanos , Gestão de Riscos , Pessoal de Saúde , Dor
10.
Ambio ; 52(4): 711-732, 2023 Apr.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36324022

RESUMO

In mountain territories, snow avalanches are a prevalent threat. Long-term risk management involves defining meaningful compromises between protection and overall sustainability of communities and their environment. Methods able to (i) consider all sources of losses, (ii) account for the high uncertainty levels that affect all components of the risk and (iii) cope for marked non-stationarities should be employed. Yet, on the basis of a literature review and an analysis of relations to Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), it is established that snow avalanche risk assessment and mitigation remain dominated by approaches that can be summed up as deterministic, hazard oriented, stationary and not holistic enough. A more comprehensive paradigm relying on formal statistical modelling is then proposed and first ideas to put it to work are formulated. Application to different mountain environments and broader risk problems is discussed.


Assuntos
Avalanche , Neve , Medição de Risco , Gestão de Riscos , Desenvolvimento Sustentável
11.
JCO Oncol Pract ; 19(3): e315-e325, 2023 03.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36383923

RESUMO

PURPOSE: The objective of the study was to highlight sources of harm that could negatively affect the lung cancer multidisciplinary team (MDT) activities to reduce the level of risk of each factor. METHODS: A modified Delphi approach was used by a board of multi-health care professionals of the lung cancer MDT to identify the main processes, subprocesses, and risk factors of the multidisciplinary pathway of patients with lung cancer. A semiquantitative matrix was built with a five-point scale for probability of harm (likelihood) and severity of harm (consequences) according to the international risk management standards (ISO 31000-2018). The risk level was calculated by multiplying likelihood × consequences. Mitigation strategies have been identified and applied by the MDT to reduce risks to acceptable levels. RESULTS: Three main processes (outpatient specialist visit, MDT discussion, and MDT program implementation), eight related subprocesses, and 16 risk factors were identified. Four risk factors (25%) were related to outpatient specialist visit, seven (43.75%) to case discussion, and five (31.25%) to program implementation. Overall, two risk factors were assigned a low-risk level (12.5%), 11 a moderate-risk level (68.75%), one (6.25%) a high-risk level, and two (12.5%) a very high-risk level. After the implementation of mitigation measures, the new semiquantitative risk analysis showed a reduction in almost all hazardous situations: two risk factors (12.5%) were given a very low level, six (37.5%) a low level, seven (43.75%) a moderate level, and one (6.25%) a very high level. CONCLUSION: An interdisciplinary risk assessment analysis is applicable to MDT activities by using an ad hoc risk matrix: if the hazard is identified and monitored, the risk could be reduced and managed in a short time.


Assuntos
Comunicação Interdisciplinar , Neoplasias Pulmonares , Humanos , Estudos Prospectivos , Gestão de Riscos , Equipe de Assistência ao Paciente
12.
J Surg Educ ; 80(1): 102-109, 2023 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36207255

RESUMO

OBJECTIVE: Gender bias, which contributes to burnout and attrition of female medical trainees, may manifest as disparate workplace evaluations. Here, we explore gender-based differences in perceived competence and professionalism as described in an institutional electronic risk management reporting system. DESIGN: In this retrospective qualitative study, recurring themes were identified from anonymous entries reported to an electronic institutional risk management database from July 2014 to July 2015, and from July 2019 to July 2020 using inductive methods. This electronic system is often used by hospital staff to document complaints against physicians under the pretext of poor patient care, regardless of whether an adverse event occurred. Two individuals independently coded entries. Themes were determined from event indicator codes (EIC) using Delphi methodology and compared between gender and specialty using bivariate statistics. SETTING: A multi-center integrated healthcare delivery system. PARTICIPANTS: Risk management entries pertaining to physician trainees by hospital staff as written submissions to the institution's electronic risk management reporting system. Main outcomes included themes defined as: (1) lack of professionalism (i.e., delay in response, attitude, lack of communication), (2) perceived medical error, (3) breach of institutional protocol. RESULTS: Of the 207 entries included for analysis, 52 entries identified men (25%) and 31 entries identified women (15%). The gender was not available in 124 entries and, therefore, categorized as ambiguous. The most common complaint about men involved a physician-related EIC (n = 12, 23%, EIC TX39) and the most common complaint about women involved a communication-related EIC (n = 7, 23%, EIC TX55). Eighty-eight (43%) entries involved medical trainees; 82 (40%) involved surgical trainees. Women were more often identified by their name only (n = 8, 26% vs. n = 3, 6%; p < 0.001). This finding was consistent in both medical (n = 0, 0% vs. n = 5, 31%; p < 0.001) and surgical (n = 2, 7% vs. n = 3, 25%; p = 0.006) specialties. In entries involving women, a lack of professionalism was most frequently cited (n = 29, 94%). Entries identifying medical errors more frequently involved men (n = 25, 48% vs. n = 7, 23%; p = 0.02). CONCLUSIONS: Gender-based differences exist in how hospital staff interpret trainees' actions and attitudes. These differences have consequences for training paradigms, perceptions of clinical competence, physician burnout, and ultimately, patient outcomes.


Assuntos
Medicina , Médicos , Humanos , Feminino , Masculino , Sexismo , Estudos Retrospectivos , Gestão de Riscos
13.
Front Public Health ; 11: 1330430, 2023.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38288426

RESUMO

Purpose: The research purpose is to improve the management of occupational risks associated with hazards as well as the organization's capabilities to identify hazardous factors (HFs) using the "BOW-TIE" method in accordance with the provisions of the ISO 45001:2019 standard. Methods: To improve occupational risk management, the "BOW-TIE" method has been introduced into occupational health and safety management systems. This approach facilitates a comprehensive description and analysis of potential risk development from identifying hazardous factors to studying the consequences. It visually integrates fault and event trees to provide a holistic view of risk dynamics. Results: The improvement of the occupational hazard risk management process considers both internal and external factors affecting the organization, thereby increasing the probability and severity of potential hazardous events. The revised approach categorizes risk levels as acceptable, unacceptable, or verifiable. In addition, occupational risk management requires an in-depth analysis of the organization's external and internal environment to identify hazards that affect the probability and severity of potential hazardous events. Conclusion: This research proposes an innovative approach to occupational risk management by determining the magnitude of occupational risk as the cumulative result of assessing risks associated with all external and internal factors influencing the probability of hazardous event occurring. The introduction of the "BOW-TIE" method, combined with a comprehensive analysis of the organizational environments, facilitates a more effective and nuanced approach to occupational risk management.


Assuntos
Saúde Ocupacional , Gestão de Riscos , Medição de Risco/métodos , Gestão de Riscos/métodos , Gestão da Segurança/métodos
14.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36497503

RESUMO

It is crucial to investigate the risk factors inherent in the medication process for cancer patients since improper antineoplastic drug use frequently has serious consequences. As a result, the Severity, Occurrence, and Detection rate of each potential failure mode in the drug administration process for patients with lung cancer were scored using the Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) model in this study. Then, the risk level of each failure mode and the direction of improvement were investigated using the Slacks-based measure data envelopment analysis (SBM-DEA) model. According to the findings, the medicine administration process for lung cancer patients could be classified into five links, with a total of 60 failure modes. The risk of failure modes for patient medication and post-medication monitoring ranked highly, with unauthorized use of traditional Chinese medicine and folk prescription and unauthorized drug addition (incorrect self-medication) ranking first (1/60); doctor prescription was also prone to errors. The study advises actively looking at ways to decrease the occurrence and difficulty of failure mode detection to continually enhance patient safety when using medications.


Assuntos
Análise do Modo e do Efeito de Falhas na Assistência à Saúde , Neoplasias Pulmonares , Humanos , Gestão de Riscos , Medição de Risco , Segurança do Paciente , Neoplasias Pulmonares/tratamento farmacológico , Neoplasias Pulmonares/epidemiologia
16.
J Am Assoc Nurse Pract ; 34(8): 1033-1038, 2022 Aug 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36330554

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The leading cause of injuries among older adults in the United States is unintentional falls. The American Geriatrics Society/British Geriatrics Society promote fall risk management in primary care; however, this is challenging in low-resource settings. LOCAL PROBLEM: Archer Family Health Care (AFHC), an Advanced Practice Registered Nurse (APRN)-managed and federally designated rural health clinic, identified a care gap with falls adherence to guidelines for patients at higher risk for falls. METHODS: The aim of this quality improvement effort was to integrate an evidence-based fall risk management tool in a rural nurse-managed primary care practice. A standardized fall risk management process with a new brief paper-based clinical decision support (CDS) tool was developed and tested in two phases. INTERVENTION: Phase 1 focused on developing a fall risk management CDS tool, identifying the primary care visit workflow, communicating the workflow patterns to the AFHC staff, and collaborating with the staff to identify when and who should implement the tool. Phase 2 focused on implementation of the fall risk management CDS tool into standard practice among older adults aged 65 years and older. RESULTS: We found that integrating the tool did not disrupt the workflow of primary care visits at AFHC. The most common recommended intervention for patients at risk of falling was daily vitamin D supplementation. CONCLUSION: This project revealed that it is feasible to introduce a brief fall risk management decision support tool in an APRN-managed rural primary care practice.


Assuntos
Sistemas de Apoio a Decisões Clínicas , Enfermagem Rural , Humanos , Idoso , Acidentes por Quedas/prevenção & controle , Gestão de Riscos , Atenção Primária à Saúde
17.
Front Public Health ; 10: 1034196, 2022.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36388364

RESUMO

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has profoundly impacted societies, influencing countries' Health Emergency and Disaster Risk Management (H-EDRM) systems. By taking Italy as a case study, this research aimed to investigate the response to the COVID-19 pandemic, focusing on the changes made to the existing H-EDRM system, with an emphasis on human resources, health service delivery, and logistics and the forward-looking strategies for the next health emergencies and disasters. Methods: We performed a retrospective observational case study using qualitative methodology. Data was collected via semi-structured interviews and analyzed considering the World Health Organization (WHO) H-EDRM framework. Multiple interviewees were selected to obtain a holistic perspective on the Italian response to COVID-19. Stakeholders from five different sectors (policy-making, hospital, primary care, third sector, lay community) from three of the most impacted Italian regions (Piemonte, Lombardia, and Veneto) were interviewed, for a total of 15 respondents. Results: Results on human resources revolved around the following main themes: personnel, training, occupational health, and multidisciplinary work; results on health service delivery encompassed the following main themes: public health, hospital, and primary care systems; results on logistics dealt with the following themes: infrastructures, supplies, transports, and communication channels. Lessons learned stressed on the importance of considering pragmatic disaster preparedness strategies and the need for cultural and structural reforms. Stakeholders mentioned several implications for the post-pandemic H-EDRM system in Italy. Conclusions: Findings highlight that the interconnection of sectors is key in overcoming pandemic-related challenges and for future disaster preparedness. The implications for the Italian H-EDRM system can inform advancements in disaster management in Italy and beyond.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Desastres , Humanos , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Pandemias , Estudos Retrospectivos , Gestão de Riscos , Itália/epidemiologia
18.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36078308

RESUMO

This paper aims to apply the time-varying Granger causality test (TVGC) and the DY Spillover Index (Diebold and Yilmaz, 2012) to measure the Granger causality and dynamic risk spillover effects of the international crude oil futures market on China's agricultural commodity futures market from the perspectives of return and volatility spillovers. Empirical evidence relating to the TVGC test suggests the existence of unidirectional Granger causality between crude oil futures and agricultural product futures. This relationship shows a strong time-varying property, in particular for sudden or extreme events such as financial crises and natural disasters. On the other hand, the volatility spillover in crude oil and agricultural product futures markets responds asymmetrically and bidirectionally according to the result of the DY Spillover index, and the periodicity of total volatility spillover correlates closely with the occurrence of global economic events, which indicates that the spillover effect between crude oil and agricultural commodity futures markets will be exacerbated in turbulent financial and economic times. Such findings are expected to help in formulating policy recommendations, portfolio design, and risk-management decisions.


Assuntos
Petróleo , Causalidade , China , Previsões , Gestão de Riscos
19.
Sci Rep ; 12(1): 15954, 2022 09 24.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36153344

RESUMO

Wildfire events have resulted in unprecedented social and economic losses worldwide in the last few years. Most studies on reducing wildfire risk to communities focused on modeling wildfire behavior in the wildland to aid in developing fuel reduction and fire suppression strategies. However, minimizing losses in communities and managing risk requires a holistic approach to understanding wildfire behavior that fully integrates the wildland's characteristics and the built environment's features. This complete integration is particularly critical for intermixed communities where the wildland and the built environment coalesce. Community-level wildfire behavior that captures the interaction between the wildland and the built environment, which is necessary for predicting structural damage, has not received sufficient attention. Predicting damage to the built environment is essential in understanding and developing fire mitigation strategies to make communities more resilient to wildfire events. In this study, we use integrated concepts from graph theory to establish a relative vulnerability metric capable of quantifying the survival likelihood of individual buildings within a wildfire-affected region. We test the framework by emulating the damage observed in the historic 2018 Camp Fire and the 2020 Glass Fire. We propose two formulations based on graph centralities to evaluate the vulnerability of buildings relative to each other. We then utilize the relative vulnerability values to determine the damage state of individual buildings. Based on a one-to-one comparison of the calculated and observed damages, the maximum predicted building survival accuracy for the two formulations ranged from [Formula: see text] for the historical wildfires tested. From the results, we observe that the modified random walk formulation can better identify nodes that lie at the extremes on the vulnerability scale. In contrast, the modified degree formulation provides better predictions for nodes with mid-range vulnerability values.


Assuntos
Incêndios , Incêndios Florestais , Conservação dos Recursos Naturais/métodos , Probabilidade , Gestão de Riscos
20.
Aquat Toxicol ; 250: 106247, 2022 Sep.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35917677

RESUMO

Aquatic toxicity posed by the complex mixture of biodegradation metabolites and related oxygen-containing organic compounds (OCOCs) in groundwater at typical petroleum release sites is of concern to regulatory agencies; several are using results from laboratory studies in older literature that are not appropriate analogs for risk management. Recent field studies from typical sites and natural groundwater should be utilized. In this study, OCOCs downgradient of the biodegrading crude oil release at the USGS Bemidji site were tested for freshwater aquatic toxicity using unaltered whole groundwater samples. This type of testing is optimal because the entire mixture of OCOCs present is tested directly and assessment is not affected by analytical limitations. Ceriodaphnia dubia and Pimephales promelas were tested for toxicity using USEPA Methods 1002 and 1000, which estimate chronic toxicity. OCOCs in representative samples up to the maximum concentration tested of 1710 ug/L Total Petroleum Hydrocarbons (TPH) (nC10 to nC40; without silica gel cleanup) did not result in effects relative to the lab control for C. dubia survival, or for P. promelas survival or growth; and did not result in effects above background for C. dubia reproduction. This is consistent with findings using the same testing methods and species on samples from 14 biodegrading fuel release sites: OCOCs did not cause increased toxicity relative to background at a maximum tested concentration of 1800 ug/L TPH (nC10 to nC28). Based on their toxicity testing using the same species and USEPA methods on groundwater from a biodegrading diesel release site, Washington Department of Ecology recently set a freshwater screening level for OCOCs at 3000 ug/L TPH ("Weathered DRO"). These studies indicate that, in the absence of dissolved hydrocarbons, OCOCs in groundwater from typical biodegrading fuel or crude oil releases are not toxic to C. dubia or P. promelas at typical concentrations.


Assuntos
Água Subterrânea , Petróleo , Poluentes Químicos da Água , Animais , Biodegradação Ambiental , Água Doce , Água Subterrânea/química , Hidrocarbonetos , Compostos Orgânicos , Petróleo/toxicidade , Gestão de Riscos , Poluentes Químicos da Água/toxicidade
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