The present and future disease burden of hepatitis C virus infections with today's treatment paradigm: Volume 4.

Factors influencing the morbidity and mortality associated with viremic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection change over time and place, making it difficult to compare reported estimates. Models were developed for 17 countries (Bahrain, Bulgaria, Cameroon, Colombia, Croatia, Dominican Republic, Ethiopia, Ghana, Hong Kong, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Morocco, Nigeria, Qatar and Taiwan) to quantify and characterize the viremic population as well as forecast the changes in the infected population and the corresponding disease burden from 2015 to 2030. Model inputs were agreed upon through expert consensus, and a standardized methodology was followed to allow for comparison across countries. The viremic prevalence is expected to remain constant or decline in all but four countries (Ethiopia, Ghana, Jordan and Oman); however, HCV-related morbidity and mortality will increase in all countries except Qatar and Taiwan. In Qatar, the high-treatment rate will contribute to a reduction in total cases and HCV-related morbidity by 2030. In the remaining countries, however, the current treatment paradigm will be insufficient to achieve large reductions in HCV-related morbidity and mortality.

All-Cause Mortality and Progression Risks to Hepatic Decompensation and Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients Infected With Hepatitis C Virus.

BACKGROUND: A key question in care of patients with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is beginning treatment immediately vs delaying treatment. Risks of mortality and disease progression in "real world" settings are important to assess the implications of delaying HCV treatment. METHODS: This was a cohort study of HCV patients identified from 4 integrated health systems in the United States who had liver biopsies during 2001-2012. The probabilities of death and progression to hepatocellular carcinoma, hepatic decompensation (hepatic encephalopathy, esophageal varices, ascites, or portal hypertension) or liver transplant were estimated over 1, 2, or 5 years by fibrosis stage (Metavir F0-F4) determined by biopsy at beginning of observation. RESULTS: Among 2799 HCV-monoinfected patients who had a qualifying liver biopsy, the mean age at the time of biopsy was 50.7 years. The majority were male (58.9%) and non-Hispanic white (66.9%). Over a mean observation of 5.0 years, 261 (9.3%) patients died and 34 (1.2%) received liver transplants. At 5 years after biopsy, the estimated risk of progression to hepatic decompensation or hepatocellular carcinoma was 37.2% in stage F4, 19.6% in F3, 4.7% in F2, and 2.3% in F0-F1 patients. Baseline biopsy stage F3 or F4 and platelet count below normal were the strongest predictors of progression to hepatic decompensation or hepatocellular carcinoma. CONCLUSIONS: The risks of death and progression to liver failure varied greatly by fibrosis stage. Clinicians and policy makers could use these progression risk data in prioritization and in determining the timing of treatment for patients in early stages of liver disease.

The present and future disease burden of hepatitis C virus infections with today's treatment paradigm - volume 3.

The total number, morbidity and mortality attributed to viraemic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections change over time making it difficult to compare reported estimates from different years. Models were developed for 15 countries to quantify and characterize the viraemic population and forecast the changes in the infected population and the corresponding disease burden from 2014 to 2030. With the exception of Iceland, Iran, Latvia and Pakistan, the total number of viraemic HCV infections is expected to decline from 2014 to 2030, but the associated morbidity and mortality are expected to increase in all countries except for Japan and South Korea. In the latter two countries, mortality due to an ageing population will drive down prevalence, morbidity and mortality. On the other hand, both countries have already experienced a rapid increase in HCV-related mortality and morbidity. HCV-related morbidity and mortality are projected to increase between 2014 and 2030 in all other countries as result of an ageing HCV-infected population. Thus, although the total number of HCV countries is expected to decline in most countries studied, the associated disease burden is expected to increase. The current treatment paradigm is inadequate if large reductions in HCV-related morbidity and mortality are to be achieved.

Baseline characteristics and mortality among people in care for chronic viral hepatitis: the chronic hepatitis cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The Chronic Hepatitis Cohort Study (CHeCS), a dynamic prospective, longitudinal, observational cohort study, was created to assess the clinical impact of chronic viral hepatitis in the United States. This report describes the cohort selection process, baseline demographics, and insurance, biopsy, hospitalization, and mortality rates. METHODS: Electronic health records of >1.6 million adult patients seen from January 2006 through December 2010 at 4 integrated healthcare systems in Detroit, Michigan; Danville, Pennsylvania; Portland, Oregon; and Honolulu, Hawaii were collected and analyzed. RESULTS: Of 2202 patients with chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection, 50% were aged 44-63 years, 57% male, 58% Asian/Pacific Islander, and 13% black; and 5.1% had Medicaid, 16.5% Medicare, and 76.3% private insurance. During 2001-2010, 22.3% had a liver biopsy and 37.9% were hospitalized. For the 8810 patients with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, 75% were aged 44-63 years, 60% male, 23% black; and 12% had Medicaid, 23% Medicare, and 62% private insurance. During 2001-2010, 38.4% had a liver biopsy and 44.3% were hospitalized. Among persons in care, 9% of persons with HBV and 14% of persons with HCV infection, mainly those born during 1945-1964, died during the 2006-2010 five-year period. CONCLUSIONS: Baseline demographic, hospitalization, and mortality data from CHeCS highlight the substantial US health burden from chronic viral hepatitis, particularly among persons born during 1945-1964.

Treatment for hepatitis C virus in human immunodeficiency virus-infected patients: clinical benefits and cost-effectiveness.

BACKGROUND: Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is an important cause of liver disease in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected patients. OBJECTIVE: To assess the cost-effectiveness of alternative management strategies for chronic HCV in co-infected patients with moderate hepatitis. METHODS: A state-transition model was used to simulate a cohort of HIV-infected patients with a mean CD4 cell count of 350 cells/ micro L and moderate chronic hepatitis C stratified by genotype. Strategies included interferon alfa (48 weeks), pegylated interferon alfa (48 weeks), interferon alfa and ribavirin (24 and 48 weeks), pegylated interferon alfa and ribavirin (48 weeks), and no treatment. Outcomes included life expectancy, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. RESULTS: Treatment for moderate chronic HCV with combination therapy using an interferon-based regimen reduced the incidence of cirrhosis and provided gains in quality-adjusted life expectancy ranging from 6.2 to 13.9 months, depending on genotype. Regardless of genotype, the cost-effectiveness of interferon alfa and ribavirin for patients with moderate hepatitis was lower than $50 000 per QALY vs the next best strategy. With genotype 1, pegylated interferon alfa (vs interferon alfa) and ribavirin therapy provided an additional 1.6 quality-adjusted life-months for $40 000 per QALY. Because treatment is more effective with non-1 genotypes, pegylated interferon (vs interferon alfa) and ribavirin provided only 3 additional quality-adjusted life-months for $105 300 per QALY. For patients who were intolerant of ribavirin, monotherapy with pegylated interferon was always the most cost-effective option. CONCLUSIONS: Combination therapy for moderate hepatitis in coinfected patients will increase quality-adjusted life expectancy and have a cost-effectiveness ratio comparable to that of other well-accepted clinical interventions.

Management of chronic liver disease.

Childhood liver disorders have, in general, mode of presentations which are distinct from that in adult population. It is due to varying etiology and natural history of the liver diseases in childhood. Chronic hepatitis B and C can be managed with alpha interferon. Remission rates in children have been reported to be between 20-58%. Recently available lamuvidine has also been used in combination with interferon therapy. Oral chelation therapy and liver transplantation have radically affected the outcome of patients with Wilson's disease. Corticosteroids and immunosuppressive therapy are effective in reducing both morbidity and mortality due to auto-immune hepatitis. Offending carbohydrates are eliminated from the diet of patients with galactosemia and hereditary fructose intolerance. The most important and often neglected component of management of chronic liver diseases in childhood are nutritional management and prompt interventions for ascites, spontaneous bacterial peritonitis, portal hypertension and hepatic encephalopathy. With definitive etiological and histological assessment and institution of specific as well as supportive therapy, children with chronic liver disease can have a prolonged survival with improved quality of life. Several of them can potentially receive the liver transplant as and when it becomes available.