Cost-effectiveness of varicella and herpes zoster vaccination in Sweden: An economic evaluation using a dynamic transmission model.

OBJECTIVES: Comprehensive cost-effectiveness analyses of introducing varicella and/or herpes zoster vaccination in the Swedish national vaccination programme. DESIGN: Cost-effectiveness analyses based on epidemiological results from a specifically developed transmission model. SETTING: National vaccination programme in Sweden, over an 85- or 20-year time horizon depending on the vaccination strategy. PARTICIPANTS: Hypothetical cohorts of people aged 12 months and 65-years at baseline. INTERVENTIONS: Four alternative vaccination strategies; 1, not to vaccinate; 2, varicella vaccination with one dose of the live attenuated vaccine at age 12 months and a second dose at age 18 months; 3, herpes zoster vaccination with one dose of the live attenuated vaccine at 65 years of age; and 4, both vaccine against varicella and herpes zoster with the before-mentioned strategies. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Accumulated cost and quality-adjusted life years (QALY) for each strategy, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER). RESULTS: It would be cost-effective to vaccinate against varicella (dominant), but not to vaccinate against herpes zoster (ICER of EUR 200,000), assuming a cost-effectiveness threshold of EUR 50,000 per QALY. The incremental analysis between varicella vaccination only and the combined programme results in a cost per gained QALY of almost EUR 1.6 million. CONCLUSIONS: The results from this study are central components for policy-relevant decision-making, and suggest that it was cost-effective to introduce varicella vaccination in Sweden, whereas herpes zoster vaccination with the live attenuated vaccine for the elderly was not cost-effective-the health effects of the latter vaccination cannot be considered reasonable in relation to its costs. Future observational and surveillance studies are needed to make reasonable predictions on how boosting affects the herpes zoster incidence in the population, and thus the cost-effectiveness of a vaccination programme against varicella. Also, the link between herpes zoster and sequelae need to be studied in more detail to include it suitably in health economic evaluations.

Socioeconomic Impact of the Rotavirus Vaccine in Korea: Comparing the Epidemiologic and Economic Characteristics of Rotavirus Gastroenteritis Before and After the Introduction of Vaccines.

BACKGROUND: Since the introduction of 2 rotavirus (RV) vaccines in Korea, the vaccination rate has reached over 80% with out-of-pocket spending in the private market. We investigated the socioeconomic impact of RV vaccines in Korea to assess their value and public health contribution. METHODS: By using National Health Insurance Service claims data, we compared the epidemiologic and economic characteristics of rotavirus gastroenteritis (RVGE) before and after the introduction of RV vaccines. For each year of the study period, the annual prevalence and national costs of RVGE were estimated based on children under 5 years with at least 1 National Health Insurance Service claims record with a diagnosis of RVGE. RESULTS: Compared with the prevaccination period, the prevalence of RVGE decreased in the postvaccination period by 48.9% from 2097 per 100,000 children in 2006 to 1072 per 100,000 children in 2015, implying an increase in the vaccination rate and the prevention effect of the vaccines. The highest reduction was observed among those 12 to <24 months of age (-73.4%), presumably due to the benefit of full vaccination, while children under 2 months, ineligible for the RV vaccine, showed an increase (41.7%). The number of hospitalized RVGE cases per year decreased by 69.0%. The national economic burden of RVGE decreased by 28.6%. CONCLUSIONS: The substantial reduction in the socioeconomic burden of RVGE after the introduction of RV vaccines confirms their benefit to society. This study would help health policy makers make empirical decisions on incorporating the vaccination into national immunization programs.

Trends in vaccine investment in middle income countries.

Although a proven and effective preventive health measure, childhood immunization programs remain vulnerable to budgetary pressures. Sustainable financing of immunization programs is an important issue that presents a challenge for middle-income countries (MIC) in particular, in part due to technological advances meaning more vaccines are available. This study aimed to analyse trends in immunization program investment across 15 MIC selected based on availability of data, income level classification, and regional representativeness. We assessed investment trends in relation to vaccine coverage, vaccine access, and broader health indicators. Immunization and expenditure data were obtained from the World Health Organisation (WHO) database and the WHO UNICEF Joint Reporting Form and WHO Vaccine Product, Price and Procurement from 2006-2016. We calculated a weighted average index of vaccine commitment (WAIVC) based on vaccine coverage, vaccine scope, and weighted by vaccine innovation measured by approximating vaccine expenditure. Correlation analyses were conducted between immunization expenditure per-capita and each WAIVC, infant mortality and life expectancy. Correlation analyses at a global and individual country level indicate an improvement in immunization access, vaccination commitment measured by WAIVC, and scope of available vaccines in countries with sustained increases in vaccination funding. Increases in national immunization expenditure were correlated with reduced infant mortality and increased life expectancy. Vaccine expenditure comprises a small proportion (less than 2%) of total healthcare spending and has not uniformly increased in accordance with the scope of available vaccines. The present analysis supports the premise that countries with consistent increases in vaccine expenditure have increased vaccine coverage and commitment measured by WAIVC and improved broader health outcomes, indicating the value of sustained investment in vaccination for improved population health. The benefits of vaccine expenditure in this holistic fashion are critical to inform policy decisions on national budget allocation for vaccine funding.

Association of strategic management with vaccination in the terms of globalization.

Globalization is having an ever growing impact on the field of vaccine production and distribution in the world and domestically. In this article we examine the impact of taking a strategic approach to vaccination programmes by all the relevant actors: WHO, UNICEF, national immunization programmes, and vaccine manufacturers and distributors. The review of the relevant literature indicates that there are commonalities to the worldwide vaccination programmes. A comparative analysis of various vaccination strategies recommended by WHO and the immunization calendars of certain European countriesis made as well as an analysis of the Serbian vaccination programme. New and more expensive vaccines will continue to appear on the market in increasingly short periods of time.

Coverage, efficacy or dosing interval: which factor predominantly influences the impact of routine childhood vaccination for the prevention of varicella? A model-based study for Italy.

BACKGROUND: Varicella is a highly infectious disease with a significant public health and economic burden, which can be prevented with childhood routine varicella vaccination. Vaccination strategies differ by country. Some factors are known to play an important role (number of doses, coverage, dosing interval, efficacy and catch-up programmes), however, their relative impact on the reduction of varicella in the population remains unclear. This paper aims to help policy makers prioritise the critical factors to achieve the most successful vaccination programme with the available budget. METHODS: Scenarios assessed the impact of different vaccination strategies on reduction of varicella disease in the population. A dynamic transmission model was used and adapted to fit Italian demographics and population mixing patterns. Inputs included coverage, number of doses, dosing intervals, first-dose efficacy and availability of catch-up programmes, based on strategies currently used or likely to be used in different countries. The time horizon was 30 years. RESULTS: Both one- and two-dose routine varicella vaccination strategies prevented a comparable number of varicella cases with complications, but two-doses provided broader protection due to prevention of a higher number of milder varicella cases. A catch-up programme in susceptible adolescents aged 10-14 years old reduced varicella cases by 27-43 % in older children, which are often more severe than in younger children. Coverage, for all strategies, sustained at high levels achieved the largest reduction in varicella. In general, a 20 % increase in coverage resulted in a further 27-31 % reduction in varicella cases. When high coverage is reached, the impact of dosing interval and first-dose vaccine efficacy had a relatively lower impact on disease prevention in the population. Compared to the long (11 years) dosing interval, the short (5 months) and medium (5 years) interval schedules reduced varicella cases by a further 5-13 % and 2-5 %, respectively. Similarly, a 10 % increase in first-dose efficacy (from 65 to 75 % efficacy) prevented 2-5 % more varicella cases, suggesting it is the least influential factor when considering routine varicella vaccination. CONCLUSIONS: Vaccination strategies can be implemented differently in each country depending on their needs, infrastructure and healthcare budget. However, ensuring high coverage remains the critical success factor for significant prevention of varicella when introducing varicella vaccination in the national immunisation programme.

Introduction of pentavalent vaccine in Indonesia: a policy analysis.

The introduction of pentavalent vaccine containing Haemophilus influenzae type b antigen in Indonesia's National Immunization Program occurred nearly three decades after the vaccine was first available in the United States and 16 years after Indonesia added hepatitis B vaccine into the program. In this study, we analyzed the process that led to the decision to introduce pentavalent vaccine in Indonesia. Using process tracing and case comparison, we used qualitative data gathered through interviews with key informants and data extracted from written sources to identify four distinct but interrelated processes that were involved in the decision making: (a) pentavalent vaccine use policy process, (b) financing process, (c) domestic vaccine development process and (d) political process. We hypothesized that each process is associated with four necessary conditions that are jointly sufficient for the successful introduction of pentavalent vaccine in Indonesia, namely (a) an evidence-based vaccine use recommendation, (b) sufficient domestic financing capacity, (c) sufficient domestic vaccine manufacturing capacity and (d) political support for introduction. This analysis of four processes that led to the decision to introduce a new vaccine in Indonesia may help policy makers and other stakeholders understand and manage activities that can accelerate vaccine introduction in the future.

Evaluation of human papilloma virus (HPV) vaccination strategies and vaccination coverage in adolescent girls worldwide.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: An analysis of HPV vaccination strategies and vaccination coverage in adolescent girls worldwide for the last eight years with regard to potential improvement of vaccination coverage rates in Poland. METHODS: Literature search, covering the period 2006-2014, was performed using Medline. Comparative analysis of HPV vaccination strategies and coverage between Poland and other countries worldwide was conducted. RESULTS: In the last eight years, a number of countries introduced HPV vaccination for adolescent girls to their national immunization programmes. Vaccination strategies differ, consequently affecting vaccination coverage, ranging from several percent to more than 90%. Usually, there are also disparities at national level. The highest HPV vaccination coverage rates are observed in countries where vaccines are administered in school settings and funded from the national budget. Poland is one of the eight EU countries where HPV vaccination has not been introduced to mandatory immunization programme and where paid vaccination is only provided in primary health care settings. HPV vaccination coverage in adolescent girls is estimated at 7.5-10%. CONCLUSIONS: Disparities in HPV vaccination coverage rates in adolescent girls worldwide may be due to different strategies of vaccination implementation between countries. Having compared to other countries, the low HPV vaccination coverage in Polish adolescent girls may result from the lack of funding at national level and the fact that vaccines are administered in a primary health care setting. A multidimensional approach, involving the engagement of primary health care and school personnel as well as financial assistance of government at national and local level and the implementation of media campaigns, particularly in regions with high incidence of cervical cancer, could result in an increase of HPV vaccination coverage rates in Poland.

Services provided by community pharmacies in Wayne County, Michigan: a comparison by ZIP code characteristics.

OBJECTIVE: To document the availability of selected pharmacy services and out-of-pocket cost of medication throughout a diverse county in Michigan and to assess possible associations between availability of services and price of medication and characteristics of residents of the ZIP codes in which the pharmacies were located. DESIGN: Cross-sectional telephone survey of pharmacies coupled with ZIP code-level census data. SETTING: 503 pharmacies throughout the 63 ZIP codes of Wayne County, MI. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The out-of-pocket cost for a 30 days' supply of levothyroxine 50 mcg and brand-name atorvastatin (Lipitor-Pfizer) 20 mg, availability of discount generic drug programs, home delivery of medications, hours of pharmacy operation, and availability of pharmacy-based immunization services. Census data aggregated at the ZIP code level included race, annual household income, age, and number of residents per pharmacy. RESULTS: The overall results per ZIP code showed that the average cost for levothyroxine was $10.01 ± $2.29 and $140.45 + $14.70 for Lipitor. Per ZIP code, the mean (± SD) percentages of pharmacies offering discount generic drug programs was 66.9% ± 15.0%; home delivery of medications was 44.5% ± 22.7%; and immunization for influenza was 46.7% ± 24.3% of pharmacies. The mean (± SD) hours of operation per pharmacy per ZIP code was 67.0 ± 25.2. ZIP codes with higher household income as well as higher percentage of residents being white had lower levothyroxine price, greater percentage of pharmacies offering discount generic drug programs, more hours of operation per week, and more pharmacy-based immunization services. The cost of Lipitor was not associated with any ZIP code characteristic. CONCLUSION: Disparities in the cost of generic levothyroxine, the availability of services such as discount generic drug programs, hours of operation, and pharmacy-based immunization services are evident based on race and household income within this diverse metropolitan county.

The GAVI Alliance and the 'Gates approach' to health system strengthening.

Lauded for getting specific health issues onto national and international agendas and for their potential to improve value for money and outcomes, public-private global health initiatives (GHIs) have come to dominate global health governance. Yet, they have also been criticised for their negative impact on country health systems. In response, disease-specific GHIs have, somewhat paradoxically, appropriated the aim of health system strengthening (HSS). This article critically analyses this development through an ethnographic case study of the GAVI Alliance, which funds vaccines in poor countries. Despite GAVI's self-proclaimed 'single-minded' focus on vaccines, HSS support is fronted as a key principle of GAVI's mission. Yet, its meaning remains unclear and contested understandings of the health systems agenda abound, reflecting competing public health ideologies and professional pressures within the global health field. Contrary to broader conceptualisations of HSS that emphasise social and political dimensions, GAVI's HSS support has become emblematic of the so-called 'Gates approach' to global health, focused on targeted technical solutions with clear, measurable outcomes. In spite of adopting rhetoric supportive of 'holistic' health systems, GHIs like GAVI have come to capture the global debate about HSS in favour of their disease-specific approach and ethos.

Integrated package approach in delivering interventions during immunisation campaigns in a complex environment in Papua New Guinea: a case study.

Papua New Guinea's difficult and varied topography, poor transport infrastructure, changing dynamics of population and economy in recent times and understaffed and poorly financed health service present major challenges for successful delivery of vaccination and other preventative health interventions to both the rural majority and urban populations, thereby posing risks for vaccine preventable disease outbreaks in the country. The country has struggled to meet the vaccination coverage targets required for the eradication of poliomyelitis and elimination of measles. Escalation of inter and intra country migration resulting from major industrial developments, particularly in extraction industries, has substantially increased the risk of infectious disease importation. This case study documents the evolution of immunisation programmes since the introduction of supplementary immunisation activities (SIAs). Single antigen SIAs have advantages and disadvantages. In situations in which the delivery of preventative health interventions is difficult, it is likely that the cost benefit is greater for multiple than for single intervention. The lessons learned from the conduct of single antigen SIAs can be effectively used for programmes delivering multiple SIA antigens, routine immunisations, and other health interventions. This paper describes a successful and cost effective multiple intervention programme in Papua New Guinea. The review of the last SIA in Papua New Guinea showed relatively high coverage of all the interventions and demonstrated the operational feasibility of delivering multiple interventions in resource constrained settings. Studies in other developing countries such as Lesotho and Ethiopia have also successfully integrated health interventions with SIA. In settings such as Papua New Guinea there is a strong case for integrating supplementary immunisation activity with routine immunisation and other health interventions through a comprehensive outreach programme.

Accelerating the introduction of rotavirus immunization in Indonesia.

The introduction of the rotavirus vaccine in Indonesia is currently in its infancy. Delay in its development might be caused by factors related to the perceived value of the vaccine, health system characteristics and policy considerations. Other factors, which may also interfere with optimizing the introduction, are financial barriers because Indonesia is a lower-middle-income country. Creating fiscal space to finance new immunization programs, such as for the rotavirus immunization, is very important to ensure the sustainability of new programs so that such programs would be financed over the long term and not endanger the sustainability of the Indonesian government's financial position. This article provides an illustration of the various steps needed to accelerate the introduction of the rotavirus immunization.

Impact of supplemental immunisation activity (SIA) campaigns on health systems: findings from South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Supplemental immunisation activity (SIA) campaigns provide children with an additional dose of measles vaccine and deliver other child health interventions including vitamin A supplements, deworming medications and oral polio vaccines. They also require the mobilisation of a large health workforce. We assess the impact of the implementation of SIA campaigns on selected routine child and maternal health services in South Africa (SA). METHODS: We use district-level monthly headcount data for 52 South African districts for the period 2001-2010, sourced from the District Health Information System, SA. The data include 12 child and maternal health headcount indicators including routine immunisation, and maternal and reproductive health indicators. We analyse the association between the implementation of the 2010 SIA campaign and the change (decrease/increase) in headcounts, using a linear regression model. RESULTS: We find a significant decrease for eight indicators. The total number of fully immunised children before age 1 decreased by 29% (95% CI 23% to 35%, p<0.001) during the month of SIA implementation; contraceptive use and antenatal visits decreased by 7-17% (p ≤ 0.02) and about 10% (p<0.001), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: SIA campaigns may negatively impact health systems during the period of implementation by disrupting regular functioning and diverting resources from other activities, including routine child and maternal health services. SIA campaigns present multidimensional costs that need to be explicitly considered in benefit-cost assessments.

Supplementary immunization activities (SIAs) in South Africa: comprehensive economic evaluation of an integrated child health delivery platform.

BACKGROUND: Supplementary immunization activity (SIA) campaigns provide children with an additional dose of measles vaccine and deliver other interventions, including vitamin A supplements, deworming medications, and oral polio vaccines. OBJECTIVE: To assess the cost-effectiveness of the full SIA delivery platform in South Africa (SA). DESIGN: We used an epidemiologic cost model to estimate the cost-effectiveness of the 2010 SIA campaign. We used province-level campaign data sourced from the District Health Information System, SA, and from planning records of provincial coordinators of the Expanded Programme on Immunization. The data included the number of children immunized with measles and polio vaccines, the number of children given vitamin A supplements and Albendazole tablets, and costs. RESULTS: The campaign cost $37 million and averted a total of 1,150 deaths (95% uncertainty range: 990-1,360). This ranged from 380 deaths averted in KwaZulu-Natal to 20 deaths averted in the Northern Cape. Vitamin A supplementation alone averted 820 deaths (95% UR: 670-1,040); measles vaccination alone averted 330 deaths (95% UR: 280-370). Incremental cost-effectiveness was $27,100 (95% UR: $18,500-34,400) per death averted nationally, ranging from $11,300 per death averted in the Free State to $91,300 per death averted in the Eastern Cape. CONCLUSIONS: Cost-effectiveness of the SIA child health delivery platform varies substantially across SA provinces, and it is substantially more cost-effective when vitamin A supplementation is included in the interventions administered. Cost-effectiveness assessments should consider health system delivery platforms that integrate multiple interventions, and they should be conducted at the sub-national level.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of a universal infant immunization program with meningococcal C conjugate vaccine in Brazil.

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the cost-effectiveness of a meningococcal C vaccination program in Brazil. METHODS: A hypothetical cohort of 3,194,038 children born in Brazil in 2006 was followed for 10 years. A decision tree model was developed using the TreeAge Pro 2007 software program to compare universal infant vaccination with the current program. Epidemiological and cost estimates were based on data retrieved from National Health Information Systems and the literature. The analysis was conducted from the public health care system and societal perspectives. Costs are expressed in 2006 Brazilian reals (R$). RESULTS: At 94% coverage, the program would avoid 1,218 cases, 210 deaths, and 14,473 life-years lost, a reduction of, respectively, 45%, 44%, and 44%, for the 10-year period. Vaccination costs of R$320.9 million would not be offset by R$4 to R$7.9 million decreases in disease treatment costs. A national vaccination program would cost R$21,620 per life-year saved from the perspective of the health-care system and R$21,896 per life-year saved from society's perspective. Results were most sensitive to case fatality rate, disease incidence, and vaccine cost. CONCLUSIONS: A universal childhood vaccination program against meningococcal C proved to be a cost-effective strategy, supporting the recent decision of the Brazilian government. These results could contribute to defining the most favorable price of the vaccine and to monitoring its impact on the population.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of a universal rotavirus immunization program in Japan.

In anticipation of the imminent licensure of rotavirus vaccine, we evaluated the cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccine in Japan by taking into account the considerable variations in the incidence of rotavirus-associated hospitalizations previously reported in the literature. We assumed that the variation was due to local differences in healthcare utilization practices rather than a true difference in the incidence of severe rotavirus gastroenteritis. Thus, a Markov model was constructed such that the sum of rotavirus-associated hospitalizations and outpatient visits was set a constant value of 129 cases per 1,000 child-years. We calculated the direct medical cost, the indirect cost, and the quality-adjusted life year (QALY) loss in children aged less than 5 years. For the base case scenario, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) per QALY gained was 9.8 million Japanese yen from the healthcare perspective, but it was 900,000 Japanese yen from the societal perspective, making the program of universal immunization against rotavirus highly cost-effective. Furthermore, the universal immunization program was found to be cost-effective from the societal perspective for any of the previously reported incidence rates of rotavirus-associated hospitalization. Thus, the introduction of the rotavirus vaccine into the childhood immunization schedule and its co-administration with other childhood vaccines will be a cost-effective public health intervention in Japan.

Comparing measles with previous eradication programs: enabling and constraining factors.

BACKGROUND: Five major disease eradication initiatives were initiated during the second half of the 20th century. The enabling and constraining factors-political, social, economic, and other-for these previous and current eradication programs can inform decision making regarding a proposed measles eradication initiative. METHODS: We reviewed the literature on the yaws, malaria, smallpox, guinea worm, and polio eradication programs and compared enabling and constraining factors for each of these programs with the same factors as they relate to a possible measles eradication initiative. RESULTS: A potential measles eradication program would enjoy distinct advantages in comparison with earlier eradication programs, including strong political and societal support, economic analyses demonstrating a high level of cost-effectiveness, and a rigorous upfront process, compared with previous eradication initiatives, that has validated the feasibility of achieving measles eradication. However, increasing population density, urbanization, and wars/civil conflicts will pose serious challenges. CONCLUSIONS: Measles eradication will be very challenging but probably not as difficult to achieve as polio eradication. Measles eradication should be undertaken only if the commitments and resources will be adequate to meet the political, social, economic, and technical challenges.

Predicting the effect of successful human papillomavirus vaccination on existing cervical cancer prevention programs in the United States.

The development of a prophylactic human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine that potentially may eliminate a majority of cervical cancers is a landmark in cancer prevention. Cervical screening, however, will continue to play an important role for the foreseeable future. Maintaining screening at the same intensity and simply adding on the expense of vaccination would result in redundancy of prevention efforts at enormously increased costs without necessarily further reducing cervical cancer mortality. Effectively integrating vaccination and screening efforts will be a critical and evolving challenge over the next decade; this will require understanding not only the impact of vaccination on reducing cervical abnormalities but also the influence of vaccination on screening test performance.

Economic evaluation of varicella vaccination in Italian children and adolescents according to different intervention strategies: the burden of uncomplicated hospitalised cases.

An economic evaluation of universal varicella vaccination in Italy was performed to assess the potential clinical and economic effects of three different strategies versus no vaccination. By means of the EVITA model, vaccination with two doses in toddlers only (1-1.5 years), adolescents only (13 years) and toddlers with adolescents catch-up programmes were simulated. All universal varicella vaccination strategies including toddlers (with or without an adolescent catch-up programme) turned out to be highly effective in reducing the burden of disease due to varicella. In addition, they lead to significant net savings from the societal perspective but to higher costs compared to return of investment from National Health Service perspective. The huge economic burden of hospitalised uncomplicated varicella cases registered in Italy can partially explain these highly beneficial findings for the societal perspective. Overall, our analysis confirmed the favourable clinical and economic impact of routine varicella vaccination with two doses of vaccine in Italy.

Cost-effectiveness of introducing a rotavirus vaccine in developing countries: the case of Mexico.

BACKGROUND: In developing countries rotavirus is the leading cause of severe diarrhoea and diarrhoeal deaths in children under 5. Vaccination could greatly alleviate that burden, but in Mexico as in most low- and middle-income countries the decision to add rotavirus vaccine to the national immunisation program will depend heavily on its cost-effectiveness and affordability. The objective of this study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of including the pentavalent rotavirus vaccine in Mexico's national immunisation program. METHODS: A cost-effectiveness model was developed from the perspective of the health system, modelling the vaccination of a hypothetical birth cohort of 2 million children monitored from birth through 60 months of age. It compares the cost and disease burden of rotavirus in an unvaccinated cohort of children with one vaccinated as recommended at 2, 4, and 6 months. RESULTS: Including the pentavalent vaccine in the national immunisation program could prevent 71,464 medical visits (59%), 5,040 hospital admissions (66%), and 612 deaths from rotavirus gastroenteritis (70%). At US$10 per dose and a cost of administration of US$13.70 per 3-dose regimen, vaccination would cost US$122,058 per death prevented, US$4,383 per discounted life-year saved, at a total net cost of US$74.7 million dollars to the health care system. Key variables influencing the results were, in order of importance, case fatality, vaccine price, vaccine efficacy, serotype prevalence, and annual loss of efficacy. The results are also very sensitive to the discount rate assumed when calculated per life-year saved. CONCLUSION: At prices below US $15 per dose, the cost per life-year saved is estimated to be lower than one GNP per capita and hence highly cost effective by the WHO Commission on Macroeconomics and Health criteria. The cost-effectiveness estimates are highly dependent upon the mortality in the absence of the vaccine, which suggests that the vaccine is likely to be significantly more cost-effective among poorer populations and among those with less access to prompt medical care - such that poverty reduction programs would be expected to reduce the future cost-effectiveness of the vaccine.

Reducing child mortality in Nigeria: a case study of immunization and systemic factors.

The purpose of the study is to assess the outcome of the Expanded Program on Immunization (EPI) in Nigeria, as well as to examine systemic factors influencing its high under-five mortality rate (UFMR). The principal objective of the EPI program when it was implemented in 1978 was to reduce mortality, morbidity and disability associated with six vaccine preventable diseases namely tuberculosis, tetanus, diphtheria, measles, pertussis and poliomyelitis. The methodological approach to this study is quantitative, using secondary time series data from 1970 to 2003. The study tested three hypotheses using time series multiple regression analysis with autocorrelation adjustment as a statistical model. The results showed that the EPI program had little effect on UFMR in Nigeria. Only the literacy rate and domestic spending on healthcare had statistically significant effects on the UFMR. The military government was not a significant factor in reducing or increasing the UFMR. It appears that Nigeria needs a unified approach to healthcare delivery, rather than fragmented programs, to overcome cultural and political divisions in society.