In silico cardiac risk assessment in patients with long QT syndrome: type 1: clinical predictability of cardiac models.

OBJECTIVES: The study was designed to assess the ability of computer-simulated electrocardiography parameters to predict clinical outcomes and to risk-stratify patients with long QT syndrome type 1 (LQT1). BACKGROUND: Although attempts have been made to correlate mutation-specific ion channel dysfunction with patient phenotype in long QT syndrome, these have been largely unsuccessful. Systems-level computational models can be used to predict consequences of complex changes in channel function to the overall heart rhythm. METHODS: A total of 633 LQT1-genotyped subjects with 34 mutations from multinational long QT syndrome registries were studied. Cellular electrophysiology function was determined for the mutations and introduced in a 1-dimensional transmural electrocardiography computer model. The mutation effect on transmural repolarization was determined for each mutation and related to the risk for cardiac events (syncope, aborted cardiac arrest, and sudden cardiac death) among patients. RESULTS: Multivariate analysis showed that mutation-specific transmural repolarization prolongation (TRP) was associated with an increased risk for cardiac events (35% per 10-ms increment [p < 0.0001]; ≥upper quartile hazard ratio: 2.80 [p < 0.0001]) and life-threatening events (aborted cardiac arrest/sudden cardiac death: 27% per 10-ms increment [p = 0.03]; ≥upper quartile hazard ratio: 2.24 [p = 0.002]) independently of patients' individual QT interval corrected for heart rate (QTc). Subgroup analysis showed that among patients with mild to moderate QTc duration (<500 ms), the risk associated with TRP was maintained (36% per 10 ms [p < 0.0001]), whereas the patient's individual QTc was not associated with a significant risk increase after adjustment for TRP. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that simulated repolarization can be used to predict clinical outcomes and to improve risk stratification in patients with LQT1, with a more pronounced effect among patients with a lower-range QTc, in whom a patient's individual QTc may provide less incremental prognostic information.

The prevalence of mutations in KCNQ1, KCNH2, and SCN5A in an unselected national cohort of young sudden unexplained death cases.

INTRODUCTION: Sudden unexplained death account for one-third of all sudden natural deaths in the young (1-35 years). Hitherto, the prevalence of genopositive cases has primarily been based on deceased persons referred for postmortem genetic testing. These deaths potentially may represent the worst of cases, thus possibly overestimating the prevalence of potentially disease causing mutations in the 3 major long-QT syndrome (LQTS) genes in the general population. We therefore wanted to investigate the prevalence of mutations in an unselected population of sudden unexplained deaths in a nationwide setting. METHODS: DNA for genetic testing was available for 44 cases of sudden unexplained death in Denmark in the period 2000-2006 (equaling 33% of all cases of sudden unexplained death in the age group). KCNQ1, KCNH2, and SCN5A were sequenced and in vitro electrophysiological studies were performed on novel mutations. RESULTS: In total, 5 of 44 cases (11%) carried a mutation in 1 of the 3 genes corresponding to 11% of all investigated cases (R190W KCNQ1, F29L KCNH2 (2 cases), P297S KCNH2 and P1177L SCN5A). P1177L SCN5A has not been reported before. In vitro electrophysiological studies of P1177L SCN5A revealed an increased sustained current suggesting a LQTS phenotype. CONCLUSION: In a nationwide setting, the genetic investigation of an unselected population of sudden unexplained death cases aged 1-35 years finds a lower than expected number of mutations compared to referred populations previously reported. We therefore conclude that the prevalence of mutations in the 3 major LQTS associated genes may not be as abundant as previously estimated.