RESUMEN
The molecular detection of DNA fragments that are shed into the environment (eDNA) has become an increasingly applied tool used to inventory biological communities and to perform targeted species surveys. This method is particularly useful in habitats where it is difficult or not practical to visually detect or trap the target organisms. Central Texas Eurycea salamanders inhabit both surface and subterranean aquatic environments. Subterranean surveys are challenging or infeasible, and the detection of salamander eDNA in water samples is an appealing survey technique for these situations. Here, we develop and validate an eDNA assay using quantitative PCR for E. chisholmensis, E. naufragia, and E. tonkawae. These three species are federally threatened and constitute the Septentriomolge clade that occurs in the northern segment of the Edwards Aquifer. First, we validated the specificity of the assay in silico and with DNA extracted from tissue samples of both target Septentriomolge and non-target amphibians that overlap in distribution. Then, we evaluated the sensitivity of the assay in two controls, one with salamander-positive water and one at field sites known to be occupied by Septentriomolge. For the salamander-positive control, the estimated probability of eDNA occurrence (ψ) was 0.981 (SE = 0.019), and the estimated probability of detecting eDNA in a qPCR replicate (p) was 0.981 (SE = 0.011). For the field control, the estimated probability of eDNA occurring at a site (ψ) was 0.938 (95% CRI: 0.714-0.998). The estimated probability of collecting eDNA in a water sample (θ) was positively correlated with salamander relative density and ranged from 0.371 (95% CRI: 0.201-0.561) to 0.999 (95% CRI: 0.850- > 0.999) among sampled sites. Therefore, sites with low salamander density require more water samples for eDNA evaluation, and we determined that our site with the lowest estimated θ would require seven water samples for the cumulative collection probability to exceed 0.95. The estimated probability of detecting eDNA in a qPCR replicate (p) was 0.882 (95% CRI: 0.807-0.936), and our assay required two qPCR replicates for the cumulative detection probability to exceed 0.95. In complementary visual encounter surveys, the estimated probability of salamanders occurring at a known-occupied site was 0.905 (SE = 0.096), and the estimated probability of detecting salamanders in a visual encounter survey was 0.925 (SE = 0.052). We additionally discuss future research needed to refine this method and understand its limitations before practical application and incorporation into formal survey protocols for these taxa.