Reconstruction of a large-scale outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Iceland informs vaccination strategies.

OBJECTIVES: The spread of SARS-CoV-2 is dependent on several factors, both biological and behavioural. The effectiveness of nonpharmaceutical interventions can be attributed largely to changes in human behaviour, but quantifying this effect remains challenging. Reconstructing the transmission tree of the third wave of SARS-CoV-2 infections in Iceland using contact tracing and viral sequence data from 2522 cases enables us to directly compare the infectiousness of distinct groups of persons. METHODS: The transmission tree enables us to model the effect that a given population prevalence of vaccination would have had on the third wave had one of three different vaccination strategies been implemented before that time. This allows us to compare the effectiveness of the strategies in terms of minimizing the number of cases, deaths, critical cases, and severe cases. RESULTS: We found that people diagnosed outside of quarantine (Rˆ=1.31) were 89% more infectious than those diagnosed while in quarantine (Rˆ=0.70) and that infectiousness decreased as a function of time spent in quarantine before diagnosis, with people diagnosed outside of quarantine being 144% more infectious than those diagnosed after ≥3 days in quarantine (Rˆ=0.54). People of working age, 16 to 66 years (Rˆ=1.08), were 46% more infectious than those outside of that age range (Rˆ=0.74). DISCUSSION: We found that vaccinating the population in order of ascending age or uniformly at random would have prevented more infections per vaccination than vaccinating in order of descending age, without significantly affecting the expected number of deaths, critical cases, or severe cases.

Molecular benchmarks of a SARS-CoV-2 epidemic.

A pressing concern in the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic and other viral outbreaks, is the extent to which the containment measures are halting the viral spread. A straightforward way to assess this is to tally the active cases and the recovered ones throughout the epidemic. Here, we show how epidemic control can be assessed with molecular information during a well characterized epidemic in Iceland. We demonstrate how the viral concentration decreased in those newly diagnosed as the epidemic transitioned from exponential growth phase to containment phase. The viral concentration in the cases identified in population screening decreased faster than in those symptomatic and considered at high risk and that were targeted by the healthcare system. The viral concentration persists in recovering individuals as we found that half of the cases are still positive after two weeks. We demonstrate that accumulation of mutations in SARS-CoV-2 genome can be exploited to track the rate of new viral generations throughout the different phases of the epidemic, where the accumulation of mutations decreases as the transmission rate decreases in the containment phase. Overall, the molecular signatures of SARS-CoV-2 infections contain valuable epidemiological information that can be used to assess the effectiveness of containment measures.

Humoral Immune Response to SARS-CoV-2 in Iceland.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the nature and durability of the humoral immune response to infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). METHODS: We measured antibodies in serum samples from 30,576 persons in Iceland, using six assays (including two pan-immunoglobulin [pan-Ig] assays), and we determined that the appropriate measure of seropositivity was a positive result with both pan-Ig assays. We tested 2102 samples collected from 1237 persons up to 4 months after diagnosis by a quantitative polymerase-chain-reaction (qPCR) assay. We measured antibodies in 4222 quarantined persons who had been exposed to SARS-CoV-2 and in 23,452 persons not known to have been exposed. RESULTS: Of the 1797 persons who had recovered from SARS-CoV-2 infection, 1107 of the 1215 who were tested (91.1%) were seropositive; antiviral antibody titers assayed by two pan-Ig assays increased during 2 months after diagnosis by qPCR and remained on a plateau for the remainder of the study. Of quarantined persons, 2.3% were seropositive; of those with unknown exposure, 0.3% were positive. We estimate that 0.9% of Icelanders were infected with SARS-CoV-2 and that the infection was fatal in 0.3%. We also estimate that 56% of all SARS-CoV-2 infections in Iceland had been diagnosed with qPCR, 14% had occurred in quarantined persons who had not been tested with qPCR (or who had not received a positive result, if tested), and 30% had occurred in persons outside quarantine and not tested with qPCR. CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate that antiviral antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 did not decline within 4 months after diagnosis. We estimate that the risk of death from infection was 0.3% and that 44% of persons infected with SARS-CoV-2 in Iceland were not diagnosed by qPCR.

Spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the Icelandic Population.

BACKGROUND: During the current worldwide pandemic, coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) was first diagnosed in Iceland at the end of February. However, data are limited on how SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19, enters and spreads in a population. METHODS: We targeted testing to persons living in Iceland who were at high risk for infection (mainly those who were symptomatic, had recently traveled to high-risk countries, or had contact with infected persons). We also carried out population screening using two strategies: issuing an open invitation to 10,797 persons and sending random invitations to 2283 persons. We sequenced SARS-CoV-2 from 643 samples. RESULTS: As of April 4, a total of 1221 of 9199 persons (13.3%) who were recruited for targeted testing had positive results for infection with SARS-CoV-2. Of those tested in the general population, 87 (0.8%) in the open-invitation screening and 13 (0.6%) in the random-population screening tested positive for the virus. In total, 6% of the population was screened. Most persons in the targeted-testing group who received positive tests early in the study had recently traveled internationally, in contrast to those who tested positive later in the study. Children under 10 years of age were less likely to receive a positive result than were persons 10 years of age or older, with percentages of 6.7% and 13.7%, respectively, for targeted testing; in the population screening, no child under 10 years of age had a positive result, as compared with 0.8% of those 10 years of age or older. Fewer females than males received positive results both in targeted testing (11.0% vs. 16.7%) and in population screening (0.6% vs. 0.9%). The haplotypes of the sequenced SARS-CoV-2 viruses were diverse and changed over time. The percentage of infected participants that was determined through population screening remained stable for the 20-day duration of screening. CONCLUSIONS: In a population-based study in Iceland, children under 10 years of age and females had a lower incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection than adolescents or adults and males. The proportion of infected persons identified through population screening did not change substantially during the screening period, which was consistent with a beneficial effect of containment efforts. (Funded by deCODE Genetics-Amgen.).

Eighty-eight variants highlight the role of T cell regulation and airway remodeling in asthma pathogenesis.

Asthma is one of the most common chronic diseases affecting both children and adults. We report a genome-wide association meta-analysis of 69,189 cases and 702,199 controls from Iceland and UK biobank. We find 88 asthma risk variants at 56 loci, 19 previously unreported, and evaluate their effect on other asthma and allergic phenotypes. Of special interest are two low frequency variants associated with protection against asthma; a missense variant in TNFRSF8 and 3' UTR variant in TGFBR1. Functional studies show that the TNFRSF8 variant reduces TNFRSF8 expression both on cell surface and in soluble form, acting as loss of function. eQTL analysis suggests that the TGFBR1 variant acts through gain of function and together with an intronic variant in a downstream gene, SMAD3, points to defective TGFßR1 signaling as one of the biological perturbations increasing asthma risk. Our results increase the number of asthma variants and implicate genes with known role in T cell regulation, inflammation and airway remodeling in asthma pathogenesis.

Publisher Correction: GWAS of bone size yields twelve loci that also affect height, BMD, osteoarthritis or fractures.

The original HTML version of this Article was updated shortly after publication to add links to the Peer Review file.In addition, affiliations 16 and 17 incorrectly read 'School of Medicine Sydney, University of Notre Dame Australia, Sydney, WA, 6160, Australia' and 'St Vincent's Clinical School, University of New South Wales Medicine, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, 2052, Australia.' This has now been corrected in both the PDF and HTML versions of the Article.

GWAS of bone size yields twelve loci that also affect height, BMD, osteoarthritis or fractures.

Bone area is one measure of bone size that is easily derived from dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) scans. In a GWA study of DXA bone area of the hip and lumbar spine (N ≥ 28,954), we find thirteen independent association signals at twelve loci that replicate in samples of European and East Asian descent (N = 13,608 - 21,277). Eight DXA area loci associate with osteoarthritis, including rs143384 in GDF5 and a missense variant in COL11A1 (rs3753841). The strongest DXA area association is with rs11614913[T] in the microRNA MIR196A2 gene that associates with lumbar spine area (P = 2.3 × 10-42, ß = -0.090) and confers risk of hip fracture (P = 1.0 × 10-8, OR = 1.11). We demonstrate that the risk allele is less efficient in repressing miR-196a-5p target genes. We also show that the DXA area measure contributes to the risk of hip fracture independent of bone density.

A homozygous loss-of-function mutation leading to CYBC1 deficiency causes chronic granulomatous disease.

Mutations in genes encoding subunits of the phagocyte NADPH oxidase complex are recognized to cause chronic granulomatous disease (CGD), a severe primary immunodeficiency. Here we describe how deficiency of CYBC1, a previously uncharacterized protein in humans (C17orf62), leads to reduced expression of NADPH oxidase's main subunit (gp91phox) and results in CGD. Analyzing two brothers diagnosed with CGD we identify a homozygous loss-of-function mutation, p.Tyr2Ter, in CYBC1. Imputation of p.Tyr2Ter into 155K chip-genotyped Icelanders reveals six additional homozygotes, all with signs of CGD, manifesting as colitis, rare infections, or a severely impaired PMA-induced neutrophil oxidative burst. Homozygosity for p.Tyr2Ter consequently associates with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) in Iceland (P = 8.3 × 10-8; OR = 67.6), as well as reduced height (P = 3.3 × 10-4; -8.5 cm). Overall, we find that CYBC1 deficiency results in CGD characterized by colitis and a distinct profile of infections indicative of macrophage dysfunction.

MAP1B mutations cause intellectual disability and extensive white matter deficit.

Discovery of coding variants in genes that confer risk of neurodevelopmental disorders is an important step towards understanding the pathophysiology of these disorders. Whole-genome sequencing of 31,463 Icelanders uncovers a frameshift variant (E712KfsTer10) in microtubule-associated protein 1B (MAP1B) that associates with ID/low IQ in a large pedigree (genome-wide corrected P = 0.022). Additional stop-gain variants in MAP1B (E1032Ter and R1664Ter) validate the association with ID and IQ. Carriers have 24% less white matter (WM) volume (ß = -2.1SD, P = 5.1 × 10-8), 47% less corpus callosum (CC) volume (ß = -2.4SD, P = 5.5 × 10-10) and lower brain-wide fractional anisotropy (P = 6.7 × 10-4). In summary, we show that loss of MAP1B function affects general cognitive ability through a profound, brain-wide WM deficit with likely disordered or compromised axons.

Whole-genome sequencing identifies rare genotypes in COMP and CHADL associated with high risk of hip osteoarthritis.

We performed a genome-wide association study of total hip replacements, based on variants identified through whole-genome sequencing, which included 4,657 Icelandic patients and 207,514 population controls. We discovered two rare signals that strongly associate with osteoarthritis total hip replacement: a missense variant, c.1141G>C (p.Asp369His), in the COMP gene (allelic frequency = 0.026%, P = 4.0 × 10-12, odds ratio (OR) = 16.7) and a frameshift mutation, rs532464664 (p.Val330Glyfs*106), in the CHADL gene that associates through a recessive mode of inheritance (homozygote frequency = 0.15%, P = 4.5 × 10-18, OR = 7.71). On average, c.1141G>C heterozygotes and individuals homozygous for rs532464664 had their hip replacement operation 13.5 years and 4.9 years earlier than others (P = 0.0020 and P = 0.0026), respectively. We show that the full-length CHADL transcript is expressed in cartilage. Furthermore, the premature stop codon introduced by the CHADL frameshift mutation results in nonsense-mediated decay of the mutant transcripts.

Variant ASGR1 Associated with a Reduced Risk of Coronary Artery Disease.

BACKGROUND: Several sequence variants are known to have effects on serum levels of non-high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol that alter the risk of coronary artery disease. METHODS: We sequenced the genomes of 2636 Icelanders and found variants that we then imputed into the genomes of approximately 398,000 Icelanders. We tested for association between these imputed variants and non-HDL cholesterol levels in 119,146 samples. We then performed replication testing in two populations of European descent. We assessed the effects of an implicated loss-of-function variant on the risk of coronary artery disease in 42,524 case patients and 249,414 controls from five European ancestry populations. An augmented set of genomes was screened for additional loss-of-function variants in a target gene. We evaluated the effect of an implicated variant on protein stability. RESULTS: We found a rare noncoding 12-base-pair (bp) deletion (del12) in intron 4 of ASGR1, which encodes a subunit of the asialoglycoprotein receptor, a lectin that plays a role in the homeostasis of circulating glycoproteins. The del12 mutation activates a cryptic splice site, leading to a frameshift mutation and a premature stop codon that renders a truncated protein prone to degradation. Heterozygous carriers of the mutation (1 in 120 persons in our study population) had a lower level of non-HDL cholesterol than noncarriers, a difference of 15.3 mg per deciliter (0.40 mmol per liter) (P=1.0×10(-16)), and a lower risk of coronary artery disease (by 34%; 95% confidence interval, 21 to 45; P=4.0×10(-6)). In a larger set of sequenced samples from Icelanders, we found another loss-of-function ASGR1 variant (p.W158X, carried by 1 in 1850 persons) that was also associated with lower levels of non-HDL cholesterol (P=1.8×10(-3)). CONCLUSIONS: ASGR1 haploinsufficiency was associated with reduced levels of non-HDL cholesterol and a reduced risk of coronary artery disease. (Funded by the National Institutes of Health and others.).