Your browser doesn't support javascript.
loading
Mostrar: 20 | 50 | 100
Resultados 1 - 20 de 46
Filtrar
1.
Evol Appl ; 17(6): e13711, 2024 Jun.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38894979

RESUMEN

Climate change poses a particular threat to long-lived trees, which may not adapt or migrate fast enough to keep up with rising temperatures. Assisted gene flow could facilitate adaptation of populations to future climates by using managed translocation of seeds from a warmer location (provenance) within the current range of a species. Finding the provenance that will perform best in terms of survival or growth is complicated by a trade-off. Because trees face a rapidly changing climate during their long lives, the alleles that confer optimal performance may vary across their lifespan. For instance, trees from warmer provenances could be well adapted as adults but suffer from colder temperatures while juvenile. Here we use a stage-structured model, using both analytical predictions and numerical simulations, to determine which provenance would maximize the survival of a cohort of long-lived trees in a changing climate. We parameterize our simulations using empirically estimated demographic transition matrices for 20 long-lived tree species. Unable to find reliable quantitative estimates of how climatic tolerance changes across stages in these same species, we varied this parameter to study its effect. Both our mathematical model and simulations predict that the best provenance depends strongly on how fast the climate changes and also how climatic tolerance varies across the lifespan of a tree. We thus call for increased empirical efforts to measure how climate tolerance changes over life in long-lived species, as our model suggests that it should strongly influence the best provenance for assisted gene flow.

2.
New Phytol ; 243(2): 705-719, 2024 Jul.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38803110

RESUMEN

Understanding the genetic basis of how plants defend against pathogens is important to monitor and maintain resilient tree populations. Swiss needle cast (SNC) and Rhabdocline needle cast (RNC) epidemics are responsible for major damage of forest ecosystems in North America. Here we investigate the genetic architecture of tolerance and resistance to needle cast diseases in Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) caused by two fungal pathogens: SNC caused by Nothophaeocryptopus gaeumannii, and RNC caused by Rhabdocline pseudotsugae. We performed case-control genome-wide association analyses and found disease resistance and tolerance in Douglas-fir to be polygenic and under strong selection. We show that stomatal regulation as well as ethylene and jasmonic acid pathways are important for resisting SNC infection, and secondary metabolite pathways play a role in tolerating SNC once the plant is infected. We identify a major transcriptional regulator of plant defense, ERF1, as the top candidate for RNC resistance. Our findings shed light on the highly polygenic architectures underlying fungal disease resistance and tolerance and have important implications for forestry and conservation as the climate changes.


Asunto(s)
Ascomicetos , Resistencia a la Enfermedad , Estudio de Asociación del Genoma Completo , Enfermedades de las Plantas , Pseudotsuga , Resistencia a la Enfermedad/genética , Enfermedades de las Plantas/microbiología , Enfermedades de las Plantas/genética , Enfermedades de las Plantas/inmunología , Pseudotsuga/genética , Pseudotsuga/microbiología , Pseudotsuga/fisiología , Ascomicetos/fisiología , Ascomicetos/patogenicidad , Árboles/genética , Adaptación Fisiológica/genética , Herencia Multifactorial , Regulación de la Expresión Génica de las Plantas , Genes de Plantas
3.
Annu Rev Plant Biol ; 2024 Apr 09.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38594931

RESUMEN

Biodiversity conservation requires conserving evolutionary potential-the capacity for wild populations to adapt. Understanding genetic diversity and evolutionary dynamics is critical for informing conservation decisions that enhance adaptability and persistence under environmental change. We review how emerging landscape genomic methods provide plant conservation programs with insights into evolutionary dynamics, including local adaptation and its environmental drivers. Landscape genomic approaches that explore relationships between genomic variation and environments complement rather than replace established population genomic and common garden approaches for assessing adaptive phenotypic variation, population structure, gene flow, and demography. Collectively, these approaches inform conservation actions, including genetic rescue, maladaptation prediction, and assisted gene flow. The greatest on-the-ground impacts from such studies will be realized when conservation practitioners are actively engaged in research and monitoring. Understanding the evolutionary dynamics shaping the genetic diversity of wild plant populations will inform plant conservation decisions that enhance the adaptability and persistence of species in an uncertain future.

4.
Glob Chang Biol ; 30(4): e17227, 2024 Apr.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38558300

RESUMEN

Methods using genomic information to forecast potential population maladaptation to climate change or new environments are becoming increasingly common, yet the lack of model validation poses serious hurdles toward their incorporation into management and policy. Here, we compare the validation of maladaptation estimates derived from two methods-Gradient Forests (GFoffset) and the risk of non-adaptedness (RONA)-using exome capture pool-seq data from 35 to 39 populations across three conifer taxa: two Douglas-fir varieties and jack pine. We evaluate sensitivity of these algorithms to the source of input loci (markers selected from genotype-environment associations [GEA] or those selected at random). We validate these methods against 2- and 52-year growth and mortality measured in independent transplant experiments. Overall, we find that both methods often better predict transplant performance than climatic or geographic distances. We also find that GFoffset and RONA models are surprisingly not improved using GEA candidates. Even with promising validation results, variation in model projections to future climates makes it difficult to identify the most maladapted populations using either method. Our work advances understanding of the sensitivity and applicability of these approaches, and we discuss recommendations for their future use.


Asunto(s)
Bosques , Pseudotsuga , Adaptación Fisiológica/genética , Genómica , Cambio Climático
5.
New Phytol ; 241(6): 2395-2409, 2024 Mar.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38247230

RESUMEN

Tree seedlings from populations native to drier regions are often assumed to be more drought tolerant than those from wetter provenances. However, intraspecific variation in drought tolerance has not been well-characterized despite being critical for developing climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies, and for predicting the effects of drought on forests. We used a large-scale common garden drought-to-death experiment to assess range-wide variation in drought tolerance, measured by decline of photosynthetic efficiency, growth, and plastic responses to extreme summer drought in seedlings of 73 natural populations of the two main varieties of Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii var. menziesii and var. glauca). Local adaptation to drought was weak in var. glauca and nearly absent in menziesii. Var. glauca showed higher tolerance to drought but slower growth than var. menziesii. Clinal variation in drought tolerance and growth species-wide was mainly associated with temperature rather than precipitation. A higher degree of plasticity for growth was observed in var. menziesii in response to extreme drought. Genetic variation for drought tolerance in seedlings within varieties is maintained primarily within populations. Selective breeding within populations may facilitate adaptation to drought more than assisted gene flow.


Asunto(s)
Sequías , Pseudotsuga , Plantones , Bosques , Árboles , Fotosíntesis
6.
New Phytol ; 235(4): 1653-1664, 2022 08.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35569109

RESUMEN

Seed and breeding zones traditionally are delineated based on local adaptation of phenotypic traits associated with climate variables, an approach requiring long-term field experiments. In this study, we applied a landscape genomics approach to delineate seed and breeding zones for lodgepole pine. We used a gradient forest (GF) model to select environment-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) using three SNP datasets (full, neutral and candidate) and 20 climate variables for 1906 lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) individuals in British Columbia and Alberta, Canada. The two GF models built with the full (28 954) and candidate (982) SNPs were compared. The GF models identified winter-related climate as major climatic factors driving genomic patterns of lodgepole pine's local adaptation. Based on the genomic gradients predicted by the full and candidate GF models, lodgepole pine distribution range in British Columbia and Alberta was delineated into six seed and breeding zones. Our approach is a novel and effective alternative to traditional common garden approaches for delineating seed and breeding zone, and could be applied to tree species lacking data from provenance trials or common garden experiments.


Asunto(s)
Pinus , Fitomejoramiento , Colombia Británica , Genómica , Pinus/genética , Semillas/genética
7.
Mol Ecol Resour ; 22(1): 225-238, 2022 Jan.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34270863

RESUMEN

Despite their suitability for studying evolution, many conifer species have large and repetitive giga-genomes (16-31 Gbp) that create hurdles to producing high coverage SNP data sets that capture diversity from across the entirety of the genome. Due in part to multiple ancient whole genome duplication events, gene family expansion and subsequent evolution within Pinaceae, false diversity from the misalignment of paralog copies creates further challenges in accurately and reproducibly inferring evolutionary history from sequence data. Here, we leverage the cost-saving benefits of pool-seq and exome-capture to discover SNPs in two conifer species, Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii var. menziesii (Mirb.) Franco, Pinaceae) and jack pine (Pinus banksiana Lamb., Pinaceae). We show, using minimal baseline filtering, that allele frequencies estimated from pooled individuals show a strong, positive correlation with those estimated by sequencing the same population as individuals (r > .948), on par with such comparisons made in model organisms. Further, we highlight the utility of haploid megagametophyte tissue for identifying sites that are probably due to misaligned paralogs. Together with additional minor filtering, we show that it is possible to remove many of the loci with large frequency estimate discrepancies between individual and pooled sequencing approaches, improving the correlation further (r > .973). Our work addresses bioinformatic challenges in non-model organisms with large and complex genomes, highlights the use of megagametophyte tissue for the identification of paralogous artefacts, and suggests the combination of pool-seq and exome capture to be robust for further evolutionary hypothesis testing in these systems.


Asunto(s)
Diploidia , Árboles , Animales , Biología , Exoma , Haploidia , Humanos , Ovinos
8.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 118(10)2021 03 09.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33649218

RESUMEN

Locally adapted temperate tree populations exhibit genetic trade-offs among climate-related traits that can be exacerbated by selective breeding and are challenging to manage under climate change. To inform climatically adaptive forest management, we investigated the genetic architecture and impacts of selective breeding on four climate-related traits in 105 natural and 20 selectively bred lodgepole pine populations from western Canada. Growth, cold injury, growth initiation, and growth cessation phenotypes were tested for associations with 18,600 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in natural populations to identify "positive effect alleles" (PEAs). The effects of artificial selection for faster growth on the frequency of PEAs associated with each trait were quantified in breeding populations from different climates. Substantial shifts in PEA proportions and frequencies were observed across many loci after two generations of selective breeding for height, and responses of phenology-associated PEAs differed strongly among climatic regions. Extensive genetic overlap was evident among traits. Alleles most strongly associated with greater height were often associated with greater cold injury and delayed phenology, although it is unclear whether potential trade-offs arose directly from pleiotropy or indirectly via genetic linkage. Modest variation in multilocus PEA frequencies among populations was associated with large phenotypic differences and strong climatic gradients, providing support for assisted gene flow polices. Relationships among genotypes, phenotypes, and climate in natural populations were maintained or strengthened by selective breeding. However, future adaptive phenotypes and assisted gene flow may be compromised if selective breeding further increases the PEA frequencies of SNPs involved in adaptive trade-offs among climate-related traits.


Asunto(s)
Adaptación Fisiológica , Cambio Climático , Genoma de Planta , Fitomejoramiento , Sitios de Carácter Cuantitativo , Tracheophyta/genética , Pinus/genética , Pinus/crecimiento & desarrollo , Selección Artificial , Tracheophyta/crecimiento & desarrollo
9.
Mol Plant Microbe Interact ; 34(4): 397-409, 2021 Apr.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33258711

RESUMEN

Many conifers have distributions that span wide ranges in both biotic and abiotic conditions, but the basis of response to biotic stress has received much less attention than response to abiotic stress. In this study, we investigated the gene expression response of lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) to attack by the fungal pathogen Dothistroma septosporum, which causes Dothistroma needle blight, a disease that has caused severe climate-related outbreaks in northwestern British Columbia. We inoculated tolerant and susceptible pines with two D. septosporum isolates and analyzed the differentially expressed genes (DEGs), differential exon usage, and coexpressed gene modules using RNA-sequencing data. We found a rapid and strong transcriptomic response in tolerant lodgepole pine samples inoculated with one D. septosporum isolate, and a late and weak response in susceptible samples inoculated with another isolate. We mapped 43 of the DEG- or gene module-identified genes to the reference plant-pathogen interaction pathway deposited in the Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes database. These genes are present in PAMP-triggered and effector-triggered immunity pathways. Genes comprising pathways and gene modules had signatures of strong selective constraint, while the highly expressed genes in tolerant samples appear to have been favored by selection to counterattack the pathogen. We identified candidate resistance genes that may respond to D. septosporum effectors. Taken together, our results show that gene expression response to D. septosporum infection in lodgepole pine varies both among tree genotypes and pathogen strains and involves both known candidate genes and a number of genes with previously unknown functions.[Formula: see text] Copyright © 2021 The Author(s). This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 International license.


Asunto(s)
Ascomicetos , Pinus , Ascomicetos/genética , Enfermedades de las Plantas , Transcriptoma/genética
10.
Evol Appl ; 13(1): 3-10, 2020 Jan.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31892941

RESUMEN

Forest ecosystems provide important ecological services and resources, from habitat for biodiversity to the production of environmentally friendly products, and play a key role in the global carbon cycle. Humanity is counting on forests to sequester and store a substantial portion of the anthropogenic carbon dioxide produced globally. However, the unprecedented rate of climate change, deforestation, and accidental importation of invasive insects and diseases are threatening the health and productivity of forests, and their capacity to provide these services. Knowledge of genetic diversity, local adaptation, and genetic control of key traits is required to predict the adaptive capacity of tree populations, inform forest management and conservation decisions, and improve breeding for productive trees that will withstand the challenges of the 21st century. Genomic approaches have well accelerated the generation of knowledge of the genetic and evolutionary underpinnings of nonmodel tree species, and advanced their applications to address these challenges. This special issue of Evolutionary Applications features 14 papers that demonstrate the value of a wide range of genomic approaches that can be used to better understand the biology of forest trees, including species that are widespread and managed for timber production, and others that are threatened or endangered, or serve important ecological roles. We highlight some of the major advances, ranging from understanding the evolution of genomes since the period when gymnosperms separated from angiosperms 300 million years ago to using genomic selection to accelerate breeding for tree health and productivity. We also discuss some of the challenges and future directions for applying genomic tools to address long-standing questions about forest trees.

11.
Evol Appl ; 13(1): 116-131, 2020 Jan.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31892947

RESUMEN

We evaluate genomic data, relative to phenotypic and climatic data, as a basis for assisted gene flow and genetic conservation. Using a seedling common garden trial of 281 lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) populations from across western Canada, we compare genomic data to phenotypic and climatic data to assess their effectiveness in characterizing the climatic drivers and spatial scale of local adaptation in this species. We find that phenotype-associated loci are equivalent or slightly superior to climate data for describing local adaptation in seedling traits, but that climate data are superior to genomic data that have not been selected for phenotypic associations. We also find agreement between the climate variables associated with genomic variation and with 20-year heights from a long-term provenance trial, suggesting that genomic data may be a viable option for identifying climatic drivers of local adaptation where phenotypic data are unavailable. Genetic clines associated with the experimental traits occur at broad spatial scales, suggesting that standing variation of adaptive alleles for this and similar species does not require management at scales finer than those indicated by phenotypic data. This study demonstrates that genomic data are most useful when paired with phenotypic data, but can also fill some of the traditional roles of phenotypic data in management of species for which phenotypic trials are not feasible.

12.
Evol Lett ; 3(4): 348-358, 2019 Aug.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31388445

RESUMEN

The rates and biological significance of somatic mutations have long been a subject of debate. Somatic mutations in plants are expected to accumulate with vegetative growth and time, yet rates of somatic mutations are unknown for conifers, which can reach exceptional sizes and ages. We investigated somatic mutation rates in the conifer Sitka spruce (Picea sitchensis (Bong.) Carr.) by analyzing a total of 276 Gb of nuclear DNA from the tops and bottoms of 20 old-growth trees averaging 76 m in height. We estimate a somatic base substitution rate of 2.7 × 10-8 per base pair within a generation. To date, this is one of the highest estimated per-generation rates of mutation among eukaryotes, indicating that somatic mutations contribute substantially to the total per-generation mutation rate in conifers. Nevertheless, as the sampled trees are centuries old, the per-year rate is low in comparison with nontree taxa. We argue that although somatic mutations raise genetic load in conifers, they generate important genetic variation and enable selection both among cell lineages within individual trees and among offspring.

13.
New Phytol ; 222(2): 1088-1100, 2019 04.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30485444

RESUMEN

Tree species in the northern hemisphere are currently subject to rapid anthropogenic climate change and are shifting their ranges in response. This prompts questions about the mechanisms allowing tree populations to respond quickly to selection pressures when establishing into new areas. Focusing on the northern expanding range edge of Picea sitchensis, a widespread conifer of western North America, we ask how genetic structure and diversity develop during colonization, and assess the role of demographic history in shaping the evolutionary trajectory of an establishing population. We combined 500 yr of tree-ring and genotyping-by-sequencing data in 639 trees at the expansion front on the Kodiak Archipelago. We show that alleles accumulated rapidly during an increase in recruitment rate in the early 1700s. A shift from foreign to local pollen flow subsequently homogenized genetic structure at the expansion front. Taking advantage of the exceptional longevity of conifers, we highlight the major role of long-distance pollen dispersal in the rapid but incomplete recovery of genetic diversity during the initial stages of colonization. We also warn that slow initial population growth as well as long-lasting dominance of local gene flow by early founders could increase evolutionary load under a rapidly changing climate.


Asunto(s)
Variación Genética , Picea/genética , Picea/fisiología , Polen/fisiología , Alaska , Geografía , Heterocigoto , Picea/crecimiento & desarrollo , Polimorfismo de Nucleótido Simple/genética , Factores de Tiempo
14.
Evol Appl ; 11(7): 1035-1052, 2018 Aug.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30026796

RESUMEN

Identifying and monitoring locally adaptive genetic variation can have direct utility for conserving species at risk, especially when management may include actions such as translocations for restoration, genetic rescue, or assisted gene flow. However, genomic studies of local adaptation require careful planning to be successful, and in some cases may not be a worthwhile use of resources. Here, we offer an adaptive management framework to help conservation biologists and managers decide when genomics is likely to be effective in detecting local adaptation, and how to plan assessment and monitoring of adaptive variation to address conservation objectives. Studies of adaptive variation using genomic tools will inform conservation actions in many cases, including applications such as assisted gene flow and identifying conservation units. In others, assessing genetic diversity, inbreeding, and demographics using selectively neutral genetic markers may be most useful. And in some cases, local adaptation may be assessed more efficiently using alternative approaches such as common garden experiments. Here, we identify key considerations of genomics studies of locally adaptive variation, provide a road map for successful collaborations with genomics experts including key issues for study design and data analysis, and offer guidelines for interpreting and using results from genomic assessments to inform monitoring programs and conservation actions.

15.
Evol Appl ; 11(2): 166-181, 2018 02.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29387153

RESUMEN

Hybrid zones contain extensive standing genetic variation that facilitates rapid responses to selection. The Picea glauca × Picea engelmannii hybrid zone in western Canada is the focus of tree breeding programs that annually produce ~90 million reforestation seedlings. Understanding the direct and indirect effects of selective breeding on adaptive variation is necessary to implement assisted gene flow (AGF) polices in Alberta and British Columbia that match these seedlings with future climates. We decomposed relationships among hybrid ancestry, adaptive traits, and climate to understand the implications of selective breeding for climate adaptations and AGF strategies. The effects of selection on associations among hybrid index estimated from ~6,500 SNPs, adaptive traits, and provenance climates were assessed for ~2,400 common garden seedlings. Hybrid index differences between natural and selected seedlings within breeding zones were small in Alberta (average +2%), but larger and more variable in BC (average -7%, range -24% to +1%), slightly favoring P. glauca ancestry. The average height growth gain of selected seedlings over natural seedlings within breeding zones was 36% (range 12%-86%). Clines in growth with temperature-related variables were strong, but differed little between selected and natural populations. Seedling hybrid index and growth trait associations with evapotranspiration-related climate variables were stronger in selected than in natural seedlings, indicating possible preadaptation to drier future climates. Associations among cold hardiness, hybrid ancestry, and cold-related climate variables dominated signals of local adaptation and were preserved in breeding populations. Strong hybrid ancestry-phenotype-climate associations suggest that AGF will be necessary to match interior spruce breeding populations with shifting future climates. The absence of antagonistic selection responses among traits and maintenance of cold adaptation in selected seedlings suggests breeding populations can be safely redeployed using AGF prescriptions similar to those of natural populations.

16.
Mol Ecol Resour ; 18(3): 525-540, 2018 May.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29356336

RESUMEN

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is widely used to infer demographic history of populations and species using DNA markers. Genomic markers can now be developed for nonmodel species using reduced representation library (RRL) sequencing methods that select a fraction of the genome using targeted sequence capture or restriction enzymes (genotyping-by-sequencing, GBS). We explored the influence of marker number and length, knowledge of gametic phase, and tradeoffs between sample size and sequencing depth on the quality of demographic inferences performed with ABC. We focused on two-population models of recent spatial expansion with varying numbers of unknown parameters. Performing ABC on simulated data sets with known parameter values, we found that the timing of a recent spatial expansion event could be precisely estimated in a three-parameter model. Taking into account uncertainty in parameters such as initial population size and migration rate collectively decreased the precision of inferences dramatically. Phasing haplotypes did not improve results, regardless of sequence length. Numerous short sequences were as valuable as fewer, longer sequences, and performed best when a large sample size was sequenced at low individual depth, even when sequencing errors were added. ABC results were similar to results obtained with an alternative method based on the site frequency spectrum (SFS) when performed with unphased GBS-type markers. We conclude that unphased GBS-type data sets can be sufficient to precisely infer simple demographic models, and discuss possible improvements for the use of ABC with genomic data.


Asunto(s)
Simulación por Computador , Genética de Población/métodos , Algoritmos , Migración Animal , Teorema de Bayes , Bases de Datos Genéticas , Marcadores Genéticos , Genómica/métodos , Haplotipos , Densidad de Población , Incertidumbre
17.
BMC Genomics ; 18(1): 970, 2017 Dec 15.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29246191

RESUMEN

BACKGROUND: Mutation load is expected to be reduced in hybrids via complementation of deleterious alleles. While local adaptation of hybrids confounds phenotypic tests for reduced mutation load, it may be possible to assess variation in load by analyzing the distribution of putatively deleterious alleles. Here, we use this approach in the interior spruce (Picea glauca x P. engelmannii) hybrid complex, a group likely to suffer from high mutation load and in which hybrids exhibit local adaptation to intermediate conditions. We used PROVEAN to bioinformatically predict whether non-synonymous alleles are deleterious, based on conservation of the position and abnormality of the amino acid change. RESULTS: As expected, we found that predicted deleterious alleles were at lower average allele frequencies than alleles not predicted to be deleterious. We were unable to detect a phenotypic effect on juvenile growth rate of the many rare alleles predicted to be deleterious. Both the proportion of alleles predicted to be deleterious and the proportion of loci homozygous for predicted deleterious alleles were higher in P. engelmannii (Engelmann spruce) than in P. glauca (white spruce), due to higher diversity and frequencies of rare alleles in Engelmann. Relative to parental species, the proportion of alleles predicted to be deleterious was intermediate in hybrids, and the proportion of loci homozygous for predicted deleterious alleles was lowest. CONCLUSION: Given that most deleterious alleles are recessive, this suggests that mutation load is reduced in hybrids due to complementation of deleterious alleles. This effect may enhance the fitness of hybrids.


Asunto(s)
Mutación , Picea/genética , Alelos , Quimera , Aptitud Genética , Genómica
18.
Glob Chang Biol ; 23(9): 3934-3955, 2017 09.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28145063

RESUMEN

Novel climates - emerging conditions with no analog in the observational record - are an open problem in ecological modeling. Detecting extrapolation into novel conditions is a critical step in evaluating bioclimatic projections of how species and ecosystems will respond to climate change. However, biologically informed novelty detection methods remain elusive for many modeling algorithms. To assist with bioclimatic model design and evaluation, we present a first-approximation assessment of general novelty based on a simple and consistent characterization of climate. We build on the seminal global analysis of Williams et al. (2007 PNAS, 104, 5738) by assessing of end-of-21st-century novelty for North America at high spatial resolution and by refining their standardized Euclidean distance into an intuitive Mahalanobian metric called sigma dissimilarity. Like this previous study, we found extensive novelty in end-of-21st-century projections for the warm southern margin of the continent as well as the western Arctic. In addition, we detected localized novelty in lower topographic positions at all latitudes: By the end of the 21st century, novel climates are projected to emerge at low elevations in 80% and 99% of ecoregions in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emissions scenarios, respectively. Novel climates are limited to 7% of the continent's area in RCP4.5, but are much more extensive in RCP8.5 (40% of area). These three risk factors for novel climates - regional susceptibility, topographic position, and the magnitude of projected climate change - represent a priori evaluation criteria for the credibility of bioclimatic projections. Our findings indicate that novel climates can emerge in any landscape. Interpreting climatic novelty in the context of nonlinear biological responses to climate is an important challenge for future research.


Asunto(s)
Cambio Climático , Ecosistema , Cadena Alimentaria , Predicción , América del Norte
19.
Mol Ecol ; 26(3): 706-717, 2017 Feb.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27997049

RESUMEN

Forest trees are an unparalleled group of organisms in their combined ecological, economic and societal importance. With widespread distributions, predominantly random mating systems and large population sizes, most tree species harbour extensive genetic variation both within and among populations. At the same time, demographic processes associated with Pleistocene climate oscillations and land-use change have affected contemporary range-wide diversity and may impinge on the potential for future adaptation. Understanding how these adaptive and neutral processes have shaped the genomes of trees species is therefore central to their management and conservation. As for many other taxa, the advent of high-throughput sequencing methods is expected to yield an understanding of the interplay between the genome and environment at a level of detail and depth not possible only a few years ago. An international conference entitled 'Genomics and Forest Tree Genetics' was held in May 2016, in Arcachon (France), and brought together forest geneticists with a wide range of research interests to disseminate recent efforts that leverage contemporary genomic tools to probe the population, quantitative and evolutionary genomics of trees. An important goal of the conference was to discuss how such data can be applied to both genome-enabled breeding and the conservation of forest genetic resources under land use and climate change. Here, we report discoveries presented at the meeting and discuss how the ecological genomic toolkit can be used to address both basic and applied questions in tree biology.


Asunto(s)
Conservación de los Recursos Naturales , Genómica/métodos , Fitomejoramiento , Árboles/genética , Cambio Climático , Congresos como Asunto , Bosques , Francia
20.
Ecol Evol ; 6(24): 8649-8664, 2016 12.
Artículo en Inglés | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-28035257

RESUMEN

Accurately detecting signatures of local adaptation using genetic-environment associations (GEAs) requires controlling for neutral patterns of population structure to reduce the risk of false positives. However, a high degree of collinearity between climatic gradients and neutral population structure can greatly reduce power, and the performance of GEA methods in such case is rarely evaluated in empirical studies. In this study, we attempted to disentangle the effects of local adaptation and isolation by environment (IBE) from those of isolation by distance (IBD) and isolation by colonization from glacial refugia (IBC) using range-wide samples in two white pine species. For this, SNPs from 168 genes, including 52 candidate genes for growth and phenology, were genotyped in 133 and 61 populations of Pinus strobus and P. monticola, respectively. For P. strobus and using all 153 SNPs, climate (IBE) did not significantly explained among-population variation when controlling for IBD and IBC in redundancy analyses (RDAs). However, 26 SNPs were significantly associated with climate in single-locus GEA analyses (Bayenv2 and LFMM), suggesting that local adaptation took place in the presence of high gene flow. For P. monticola, we found no evidence of IBE using RDAs and weaker signatures of local adaptation using GEA and FST outlier tests, consistent with adaptation via phenotypic plasticity. In both species, the majority of the explained among-population variation (69 to 96%) could not be partitioned between the effects of IBE, IBD, and IBC. GEA methods can account differently for this confounded variation, and this could explain the small overlap of SNPs detected between Bayenv2 and LFMM. Our study illustrates the inherent difficulty of taking into account neutral structure in natural populations and the importance of sampling designs that maximize climatic variation, while minimizing collinearity between climatic gradients and neutral structure.

SELECCIÓN DE REFERENCIAS
DETALLE DE LA BÚSQUEDA