Microbial neoformation of volatiles: implications for the estimation of post-mortem interval in decomposed human remains in an indoor setting.

The objective of this study was to determine if a relationship between microbial neoformation of volatiles and the post-mortem interval (PMI) exists, and if the volatiles could be used as a tool to improve the precision of PMI estimation in decomposed human remains found in an indoor setting. Chromatograms from alcohol analysis (femoral vein blood) of 412 cases were retrospectively assessed for the presence of ethanol, N-propanol, 1-butanol, and acetaldehyde. The most common finding was acetaldehyde (83% of the cases), followed by ethanol (37%), N-propanol (21%), and 1-butanol (4%). A direct link between the volatiles and the PMI or the degree of decomposition was not observed. However, the decomposition had progressed faster in cases with microbial neoformation than in cases without signs of neoformation. Microbial neoformation may therefore act as an indicator of the decomposition rate within the early decomposition to bloating stages. This may be used in PMI estimation based on the total body score (TBS) and accumulated degree days (ADD) model, to potentially improve the model's precision.

Histological quantification of decomposed human livers: a potential aid for estimation of the post-mortem interval?

The objective of this study was to determine if a novel scoring-based model for histological quantification of decomposed human livers could improve the precision of post-mortem interval (PMI) estimation for bodies from an indoor setting. The hepatic decomposition score (HDS) system created consists of five liver scores (HDS markers): cell nuclei and cell structure of hepatocytes, bile ducts, portal triad, and architecture. A total of 236 forensic autopsy cases were divided into a training dataset (n = 158) and a validation dataset (n = 78). All cases were also scored using the total body score (TBS) method. We specified a stochastic relationship between the log-transformed accumulated degree-days (log10ADD) and the taphonomic findings, using a multivariate regression model to compute the likelihood function. Three models were applied, based on (i) five HDS markers, (ii) three partial body scores (head, trunk, limbs), or (iii) a combination of the two. The predicted log10ADD was compared with the true log10ADD for each case. The fitted models performed equally well in the training dataset and the validation dataset. The model comprising both scoring methods had somewhat better precision than either method separately. Our results indicated that the HDS system was statistically robust. Combining the HDS markers with the partial body scores resulted in a better representation of the decomposition process and might improve PMI estimation of decomposed human remains.

Application of the Bayesian framework for forensic interpretation to casework involving postmortem interval estimates of decomposed human remains.

We demonstrate how the Bayesian framework for forensic interpretation can be adapted for casework involving postmortem intervals (PMI) utilizing taphonomic data as well as how to overcome some of the limitations of current approaches for estimating and communicating uncertainty. A model is implemented for indoor cases based on partial body scores from three different anatomical regions as correlated functions of accumulated temperature (AT). The multivariate model enables estimation of PMI for human remains also when one or two local body scores are missing or undetermined, e.g. as a result of burns, scars or covered body parts. The model was trained using the expectation maximization algorithm, enabling us to account for uncertainty of PMI and/or ambient temperature in the training data. Alternative approaches reporting the results are presented, including the likelihood curve, likelihood ratios for competing hypotheses and posterior probability distributions and credibility intervals for PMI. The applicability or the approaches in different forensic scenarios is discussed.

Quantifying human decomposition in an indoor setting and implications for postmortem interval estimation.

This study's objective is to obtain accuracy and precision in estimating the postmortem interval (PMI) for decomposing human remains discovered in indoor settings. Data were collected prospectively from 140 forensic cases with a known date of death, scored according to the Total Body Score (TBS) scale at the post-mortem examination. In our model setting, it is estimated that, in cases with or without the presence of blowfly larvae, approximately 45% or 66% respectively, of the variance in TBS can be derived from Accumulated Degree-Days (ADD). The precision in estimating ADD/PMI from TBS is, in our setting, moderate to low. However, dividing the cases into defined subgroups suggests the possibility to increase the precision of the model. Our findings also suggest a significant seasonal difference with concomitant influence on TBS in the complete data set, possibly initiated by the presence of insect activity mainly during summer. PMI may be underestimated in cases with presence of desiccation. Likewise, there is a need for evaluating the effect of insect activity, to avoid overestimating the PMI. Our data sample indicates that the scoring method might need to be slightly modified to better reflect indoor decomposition, especially in cases with insect infestations or/and extensive desiccation. When applying TBS in an indoor setting, the model requires distinct inclusion criteria and a defined population.

Evaluation of a Multivariate Syndromic Surveillance System for West Nile Virus.

BACKGROUND: Various methods are currently used for the early detection of West Nile virus (WNV) but their outputs are not quantitative and/or do not take into account all available information. Our study aimed to test a multivariate syndromic surveillance system to evaluate if the sensitivity and the specificity of detection of WNV could be improved. METHODS: Weekly time series data on nervous syndromes in horses and mortality in both horses and wild birds were used. Baselines were fitted to the three time series and used to simulate 100 years of surveillance data. WNV outbreaks were simulated and inserted into the baselines based on historical data and expert opinion. Univariate and multivariate syndromic surveillance systems were tested to gauge how well they detected the outbreaks; detection was based on an empirical Bayesian approach. The systems' performances were compared using measures of sensitivity, specificity, and area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). RESULTS: When data sources were considered separately (i.e., univariate systems), the best detection performance was obtained using the data set of nervous symptoms in horses compared to those of bird and horse mortality (AUCs equal to 0.80, 0.75, and 0.50, respectively). A multivariate outbreak detection system that used nervous symptoms in horses and bird mortality generated the best performance (AUC = 0.87). CONCLUSIONS: The proposed approach is suitable for performing multivariate syndromic surveillance of WNV outbreaks. This is particularly relevant, given that a multivariate surveillance system performed better than a univariate approach. Such a surveillance system could be especially useful in serving as an alert for the possibility of human viral infections. This approach can be also used for other diseases for which multiple sources of evidence are available.

Separated by a common language: awareness of term usage differences between languages and disciplines in biopreparedness.

Preparedness for bioterrorism is based on communication between people in organizations who are educated and trained in several disciplines, including law enforcement, health, and science. Various backgrounds, cultures, and vocabularies generate difficulties in understanding and interpretating terms and concepts, which may impair communication. This is especially true in emergency situations, in which the need for clarity and consistency is vital. The EU project AniBioThreat initiated methods and made a rough estimate of the terms and concepts that are crucial for an incident, and a pilot database with key terms and definitions has been constructed. Analysis of collected terms and sources has shown that many of the participating organizations use various international standards in their area of expertise. The same term often represents different concepts in the standards from different sectors, or, alternatively, different terms were used to represent the same or similar concepts. The use of conflicting terminology can be problematic for decision makers and communicators in planning and prevention or when handling an incident. Since the CBRN area has roots in multiple disciplines, each with its own evolving terminology, it may not be realistic to achieve unequivocal communication through a standardized vocabulary and joint definitions for words from common language. We suggest that a communication strategy should include awareness of alternative definitions and ontologies and the ability to talk and write without relying on the implicit knowledge underlying specialized jargon. Consequently, cross-disciplinary communication skills should be part of training of personnel in the CBRN field. In addition, a searchable repository of terms and definitions from relevant organizations and authorities would be a valuable addition to existing glossaries for improving awareness concerning bioterrorism prevention planning.

Bayesian networks for evaluation of evidence from forensic entomology.

In the aftermath of a CBRN incident, there is an urgent need to reconstruct events in order to bring the perpetrators to court and to take preventive actions for the future. The challenge is to discriminate, based on available information, between alternative scenarios. Forensic interpretation is used to evaluate to what extent results from the forensic investigation favor the prosecutors' or the defendants' arguments, using the framework of Bayesian hypothesis testing. Recently, several new scientific disciplines have been used in a forensic context. In the AniBioThreat project, the framework was applied to veterinary forensic pathology, tracing of pathogenic microorganisms, and forensic entomology. Forensic entomology is an important tool for estimating the postmortem interval in, for example, homicide investigations as a complement to more traditional methods. In this article we demonstrate the applicability of the Bayesian framework for evaluating entomological evidence in a forensic investigation through the analysis of a hypothetical scenario involving suspect movement of carcasses from a clandestine laboratory. Probabilities of different findings under the alternative hypotheses were estimated using a combination of statistical analysis of data, expert knowledge, and simulation, and entomological findings are used to update the beliefs about the prosecutors' and defendants' hypotheses and to calculate the value of evidence. The Bayesian framework proved useful for evaluating complex hypotheses using findings from several insect species, accounting for uncertainty about development rate, temperature, and precolonization. The applicability of the forensic statistic approach to evaluating forensic results from a CBRN incident is discussed.

Accuracy and sensitivity of commercial PCR-based methods for detection of Salmonella enterica in feed.

The present study compared the performance of commercial PCR-based Salmonella enterica detection methods (BAX System Q7, the iQ-Check Salmonella II kit, and the TaqMan Salmonella enterica detection kit) with culture-based methods (modified semisolid Rappaport-Vassiliadis [MSRV] and NMKL71) in spiked and naturally contaminated samples of feed mill scrapings (FMS), palm kernel meal (PKM), pelleted feed (PF), rape seed meal (RSM), soybean meal (SM), and wheat grain (WG). When results from the various feeds were compared, the number of Salmonella enterica CFU/25 g required to produce a positive were as follows: PKM > FMS = WG > RSM = SM = PF. These data are similar to those developed in earlier studies with culture-based Salmonella detection methods. PCR-based methods were performed similarly to culture-based methods, with respect to sensitivity and specificity. However, many PCR positives could not be confirmed by Salmonella isolation and for that reason the evaluated methods were found to be suitable only when rapid results were paramount. Nevertheless, PCR-based methods cannot presently replace culture-based methods when typing information is required for tracing studies or epidemiological investigations. The observed difference in detection levels is a potential problem when prevalence data are compared as well as when feed ingredients are tested for conformance with microbiological criteria. This paper also presents a statistical model that describes the detection probability when different levels (CFU) of Salmonella contamination are present in feed materials.

Suppression of RNA interference by adenovirus virus-associated RNA.

We show that human adenovirus inhibits RNA interference (RNAi) at late times of infection by suppressing the activity of two key enzyme systems involved, Dicer and RNA-induced silencing complex (RISC). To define the mechanisms by which adenovirus blocks RNAi, we used a panel of mutant adenoviruses defective in virus-associated (VA) RNA expression. The results show that the virus-associated RNAs, VA RNAI and VA RNAII, function as suppressors of RNAi by interfering with the activity of Dicer. The VA RNAs bind Dicer and function as competitive substrates squelching Dicer. Further, we show that VA RNAI and VA RNAII are processed by Dicer, both in vitro and during a lytic infection, and that the resulting short interfering RNAs (siRNAs) are incorporated into active RISC. Dicer cleaves the terminal stem of both VA RNAI and VA RNAII. However, whereas both strands of the VA RNAI-specific siRNA are incorporated into RISC, the 3' strand of the VA RNAII-specific siRNA is selectively incorporated during a lytic infection. In summary, our work shows that adenovirus suppresses RNAi during a lytic infection and gives insight into the mechanisms of RNAi suppression by VA RNA.

Pumilio homologue from saprolegnia parasitica specifically expressed in undifferentiated spore cysts.

The expression of spore-specific marker transcripts at different stages of the asexual life cycle of Saprolegnia parasitica was analyzed. One of the markers, designated puf1, was found to be expressed transiently upon each of several cycles of zoospore encystment and reemergence. The transcript is induced immediately upon zoospore encystment and is rapidly lost when a cyst is triggered to germinate. In nongerminating cysts, puf1 is maintained until a time point when the cysts can no longer be triggered to germinate and thus have become determined for zoospore reemergence. The results show that the cyst stage has two phases, of about equal duration, which are physiologically and transcriptionally distinct and that the transcriptional machinery of oomycetes is also active in nongerminating spores. puf1 encodes a putative mRNA binding protein belonging to a conserved class of proteins including the Drosophila melanogaster Pumilio protein, Caenorhabditis elegans FBF, and Saccharomyces cerevisiae Puf5, all of which are involved in regulation of gene expression by post-transcriptional mechanisms.

Analysis of chitinase expression in the crayfish plague fungus Aphanomyces astaci.

Chitinase, as determined by enzymatic activity in the growth medium and by transcription of the chitinase gene AaChi1, is expressed at a high level during vegetative growth of the crayfish pathogen Aphanomyces astaci and expression is not further stimulated by chitin. Expression is not detected in zoospores and it does not increase to high levels until late during germination. Upon sporulation, chitinase expression increases to levels comparable with those seen in fast-growing mycelium. This pattern of chitinase expression is a common feature of strains representing all currently known genotypes of A. astaci, suggesting that it is an adaptation to the exclusively parasitic life-style of this species. In contrast, other Aphanomyces spp. including the saprophytes, A. laevis and A. stellatus, produce significant amounts of chitinase only in the presence of chitin. The pattern of chitinase expression is one of very few qualitative physiological characteristics known which can distinguish A. astaci from other parasitic and saprophytic species and may thus be of practical use for identification.