Can upwelling regions be potential thermal refugia for marine fishes during climate warming?

Species are expected to migrate to higher latitudes as warming intensifies due to anthropogenic climate change since physiological mechanisms have been adapted to maximize fitness under specific temperatures. However, literature suggests that upwellings could act as thermal refugia under climate warming protecting marine ecosystem diversity. This research aimed to predict the effects of climate warming on commercial and non-commercial fish species reported in official Mexican documents (>200 species) based on their thermal niche to observe if upwellings can act as potential thermal refugia. Present (2000-2014) and Representative Concentration Pathway (6.0 and 8.5) scenarios (2040-2050 and 2090-2100) have been considered for this work. Current and future suitability patterns, species distribution, richness, and turnover were calculated using the minimum volume ellipsoids as algorithm. The results in this study highlight that beyond migration to higher latitudes, upwelling regions could protect marine fishes, although the mechanism differed between the innate characteristics of upwellings. Most modeled species (primarily tropical fishes) found refuge in the tropical upwelling in Northern Yucatan. However, the highest warming scenario overwhelmed this region. In contrast, the Baja California region lies within the Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems. While the area experiences an increase in suitability, the northern regions have a higher upwelling intensity acting as environmental barriers for many tropical species. Conversely, in the southern regions where upwelling is weaker, species tend to congregate and persist even during elevated warming, according to the turnover analysis. These findings suggest that tropicalization in higher latitudes may not be as straightforward as previously assumed. Nevertheless, climate change affects numerous ecosystem features, such as trophic relationships, phenology, and other environmental variables not considered here. In addition, uncertainty still exists about the assumption of increasing intensity of upwelling systems.

Thermal optimality and physiological parameters inferred from experimental studies scale latitudinally with marine species occurrences.

Ocean warming is expected to occur due to anthropogenic climate change bringing a spatial shift of marine communities. Experimental data that characterize the aerobic power budget via an aerobic scope, thermal metabolic scope, or thermal preferences have been proposed as tools that can describe species distribution since they characterize species fitness or performance under different temperatures. This study tested the potential relationship between observed occurrences and different physiological studies in the Americas for 11 commercially important species in Mexico. Projections were also developed for Mexico's exclusive economic zone under different climate warming scenarios. The physiological data were fitted from optimum up to pejus temperatures and projected to sea surface temperatures for present (2003-2014) and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5) for the period 2040-2050 and 2090-2100. For species with wide distributions in the Americas, the number of occurrences reported decreases at higher latitudes related to the decrease in species performance calculated from laboratory experiments. In addition, higher species occurrences are usually reported around optimum temperatures. Overall, the results suggest that pejus temperatures likely restrict latitudinal distribution, at least for widely distributed taxons. Regarding Mexican projections, the results varied widely by species. For example, in the Atlantic Ocean, Octopus maya and Panulirus argus are vulnerable to warming scenarios, while Centropomus undecimalis is not. Interestingly, northern Campeche Bank, the Gulf of California, and Western Baja California may act as thermal refugia for marine species indicating they could be assigned as protected areas to support fisheries throughout the Mexican exclusive economic zone. This research adds to the increasing evidence of the relationship between thermal niche and wild population distribution.

Exploring the effects of warming seas by using the optimal and pejus temperatures of the embryo of three Octopoda species in the Gulf of Mexico.

Using data related to thermal optimal and pejus of the embryos of Octopus americanus from Brazil and O. insularis and O. maya from Mexico, this study aimed to project the potential distribution areas in the Gulf of Mexico and predict distribution shifts under different Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP 6 and 8.5) for the years 2050 and 2100. The different thermal tolerances elicited different responses to current and future scenarios. In this sense, O. insularis and O. maya thermal niches stretch from the Caribbean to Florida. Nevertheless, O. insularis may inhabit warmer areas than O. maya. Surprisingly, no area was considered thermally habitable for O. americanus, which could have been associated with the use of data of populations thermally adapted to temperate conditions south of Brazil. According to models, a warming scenario would cause a restriction of the available thermal niche of O. maya, while O. insularis could expand under RCP 6 scenarios. This restriction was more substantial in the RCP 8.5 scenario. Nevertheless, under the RCP 8.5 scenario, the temperature in 2100 may negatively affect even O. insularis, the species most thermal tolerant. If our results are accurate, the fishing yield of O. insularis will increase in the future, replacing the heavily exploited O. maya in the coasts of the southern Gulf of Mexico. Regarding O. americanus, no inference might be made until thermal tolerances of locally adapted populations can be studied.