A comparative analysis of classical and machine learning methods for forecasting TB/HIV co-infection.

TB/HIV coinfection poses a complex public health challenge. Accurate forecasting of future trends is essential for efficient resource allocation and intervention strategy development. This study compares classical statistical and machine learning models to predict TB/HIV coinfection cases stratified by gender and the general populations. We analyzed time series data using exponential smoothing and ARIMA to establish the baseline trend and seasonality. Subsequently, machine learning models (SVR, XGBoost, LSTM, CNN, GRU, CNN-GRU, and CNN-LSTM) were employed to capture the complex dynamics and inherent non-linearities of TB/HIV coinfection data. Performance metrics (MSE, MAE, sMAPE) and the Diebold-Mariano test were used to evaluate the model performance. Results revealed that Deep Learning models, particularly Bidirectional LSTM and CNN-LSTM, significantly outperformed classical methods. This demonstrates the effectiveness of Deep Learning for modeling TB/HIV coinfection time series and generating more accurate forecasts.

Does machine learning have a high performance to predict obesity among adults and older adults? A systematic review and meta-analysis.

AIM: Machine learning may be a tool with the potential for obesity prediction. This study aims to review the literature on the performance of machine learning models in predicting obesity and to quantify the pooled results through a meta-analysis. DATA SYNTHESIS: A systematic review and meta-analysis were conducted, including studies that used machine learning to predict obesity. Searches were conducted in October 2023 across databases including LILACS, Web of Science, Scopus, Embase, and CINAHL. We included studies that utilized classification models and reported results in the Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC) (PROSPERO registration: CRD42022306940), without imposing restrictions on the year of publication. The risk of bias was assessed using an adapted version of the Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for individual Prognosis or Diagnosis (TRIPOD). Meta-analysis was conducted using MedCalc software. A total of 14 studies were included, with the majority demonstrating satisfactory performance for obesity prediction, with AUCs exceeding 0.70. The random forest algorithm emerged as the top performer in obesity prediction, achieving an AUC of 0.86 (95%CI: 0.76-0.96; I2: 99.8%), closely followed by logistic regression with an AUC of 0.85 (95%CI: 0.75-0.95; I2: 99.6%). The least effective model was gradient boosting, with an AUC of 0.77 (95%CI: 0.71-0.82; I2: 98.1%). CONCLUSION: Machine learning models demonstrated satisfactory predictive performance for obesity. However, future research should utilize more comparable data, larger databases, and a broader range of machine learning models.

Validity of the Brazilian online version of the Sexual Desire Inventory 2.

OBJECTIVE: The Sexual Desire Inventory 2 is a self-report instrument for assessing sexual desire in men and women. In Brazil, there is no validated sexual desire self-report for the adult population. The aim of this study was to determine the evidence of validity for the content and construct of the Brazilian online version of the Sexual Desire Inventory 2. METHODS: This was a cross-sectional study with Brazilian men and women. The sample size was calculated using the criterion of more than 20 participants per item. The invitation to participate in the study was conducted online by the platform Survey Monkey®. The Sexual Desire Inventory 2 was evaluated for content, construct, reliability, and invariance. RESULTS: A total of 818 female and male adults participated in the study. The two-dimensional factorial solution represented 71% of the total variance explained by the model, and the factorial loads of the model were ≥0.40; commonalities presented values ≥0.23. Reliability was measured by the coefficients of Cronbach's alpha with a total score of 0.87, McDonald's of 0.87, Omega, and greatest lower bound with a total score of 0.95. The metric invariance was tested for the sex variables ΔCFI (comparative fit index) and ΔRMSEA (root mean square error of approximation) with a total score of 0.01. CONCLUSION: The analyses indicate evidence of robust validity in the Brazilian online version of the Sexual Desire Inventory 2.

The COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil: space-time approach of cases, deaths, and vaccination coverage (February 2020 - April 2024).

OBJECTIVE: To assess the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil and its macro-regions, considering disease incidence and mortality rates, as well as identifying territories with still rising disease indices and evaluating vaccine coverage and population adherence to COVID-19 immunization. METHODS: An ecological study conducted in Brazil with COVID-19 cases and deaths reported between February 2020 and April 2024, obtained through the Coronavirus Panel. Historical series were constructed from incidence and mortality rates to assess the pandemic's evolution, and temporal trends were estimated using the Seasonal Trend Decomposition using Loess (STL) method. The Spatial Variation in Temporal Trends (SVTT) technique was employed to identify clusters with significant variations in temporal trends. Vaccination was analyzed considering the percentage of vaccinated and unvaccinated population in each municipality of the country. RESULTS: Brazil recorded a total of 38,795,966 cases and 712,038 deaths from COVID-19 during the study period. Incidence and mortality rates showed three waves of the disease, with a fourth wave of smaller amplitude. Four clusters with significant case growth and two with increased deaths were identified. Vaccine coverage varied among municipalities, with some regions showing low vaccination rates and others with high immunization adherence. CONCLUSION: The study provided a comprehensive overview of coronavirus behavior in Brazil, and its results highlight the ongoing importance of vaccination and the need to direct efforts and resources to areas of higher risk.

Barriers That Interfere with Access to Tuberculosis Diagnosis and Treatment across Countries Globally: A Systematic Review.

This study evaluated the barriers that interfere with access to diagnosis and treatment of tuberculosis (TB) from the perspective of the patient and health professionals globally. Using the PICo acronym, the question we asked was "What are the barriers that interfere with access to tuberculosis diagnosis and treatment (I) from the perspective of patients and/or health professionals (P) across countries globally (Co)?". We searched the following databases: EMBASE, Scopus, MEDLINE, Latin American and Caribbean Literature in Health Sciences (LILACS), and Web of Science. On Rayyan, duplicates were removed and extraction was done afterward by two authors independently, followed by a tiebreaker. Using a Critical Appraisal Tool proposed by the Joanna Briggs Institute, the methodological quality of the article was assessed. From 36 published articles, the barriers to tuberculosis diagnosis as obtained from our study include information scarcity/low TB knowledge, exorbitant cost of transport, sample collection challenges, long distance to health facility, gender limitations, lack of decentralized diagnostic services, payment for diagnosis and testing, medication side effects, multiple visits during therapy, delayed diagnosis, poor human resources, low knowledge of medical practitioners, concerns regarding the efficacy of treatment, poor facility coordination, poor socioeconomic factors, fear and stigmatization of TB, and wrong initial diagnosis. The review of studies on TB diagnosis and treatment barriers evidences the diverse barriers to the eradication of tuberculosis. Eliminating these barriers is an onus that lies on policy makers, citizens, and health workers alike, with the joint aim of reducing the global TB burden.

Social protection in areas vulnerable to tuberculosis: a mixed methods study in São Luís, Maranhão.

OBJECTIVES: to analyze the risk areas for tuberculosis and the influences of social protection on the development of treatment for the disease in the municipality of São Luís, Maranhão. METHODS: this is explanatory sequential mixed method research. In the quantitative phase, the data were obtained from the Notifiable Diseases Information System from 2010 to 2019, with georeferencing being carried out to identify areas vulnerable to tuberculosis. In the qualitative phase, semi-structured interviews were carried out with individuals who received social benefits. RESULTS: 7,381 cases were geocoded, and, from the purely spatial scanning analysis, it was possible to identify 13 spatial clusters of risk. As for the interviews, there was a positive relationship between patient improvement and receiving benefits. CONCLUSIONS: geographic space and social determinants are relevant for reorienting monitoring actions for the conditions that generate the health-disease process.

Operational indicators for pulmonary tuberculosis diagnosis in people living with HIV before and after Xpert MTB/RIF implementation in the state of São Paulo, Brazil.

Tuberculosis (TB) in people living with HIV (PLHIV) is usually paucibacillary and the smear microscopy has limitations and may lead to high proportions of non-confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis (NC-PTB). Despite culture being the reference method, it usually takes 6 to 8 weeks to produce the results. This study aimed to analyze the effect of a rapid molecular test (Xpert) in the confirmatory rate of PTB among PLHIV, from 2010 to 2020, in São Paulo state, Brazil. This is an ecological study with time series analysis of the trend and the NC-PTB rates before and after Xpert implementation in 21 municipalities. The use of Xpert started and gradually increased after 2014, while the rate of NC-PTB in PLHIV decreased over this time, being more significant between late 2015 and mid-2017. The city of Ribeirão Preto stands out for having the highest percentage (75.0%) of Xpert testing among PLHIV and for showing two reductions in the NC-PTB rate. The cities with low Xpert coverage had a slower and smaller decrease in the NC-PTB rate. Despite being available since 2014, a significant proportion of PLHIV suspected of PTB in the state of São Paulo did not have an Xpert ordered by the doctors. The implementation of Xpert reduced the NC-PTB rates with growing effect as the coverage increased in the municipality.

International Migration, Refugees, and Spread of Tuberculosis in Brazil: Analysis of Clusters, Trends, and Associated Factors (2010-2021).

BACKGROUND: International migration is a global phenomenon with significant implications on the health-disease process due to exposures along transit routes and local/destination epidemiological indicators. We aimed to analyze the transmission and spread of tuberculosis among international migrants and refugees from a spatiotemporal perspective and the associated factors. METHOD: This was an ecological study of cases of tuberculosis in international migrants in Brazil, between 2010 and 2021. Annual incidence rates were calculated and spatiotemporal scan techniques were used to identify municipalities at risk. Multiple logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with tuberculosis in international migrants. RESULTS: A total of 4037 cases of tuberculosis were reported in Brazil in international migrants. Municipalities at risk for this event were identified using the spatiotemporal scan technique, and a cluster was identified with ITT: +52.01% and ETT: +25.60%. A higher probability of TB infection was identified in municipalities with a TB incidence rate >14.40 cases/100 inhabitants, population >11,042 inhabitants, Gini index >0.49, and illiteracy rate >13.12%. A lower probability was found in municipalities with average per capita household income >BRL 456.43. CONCLUSIONS: It is recommended that health authorities implement monitoring and rigorous follow-up in affected areas to ensure proper diagnosis and treatment completion for international migrants, preventing disease spread to other communities.

HIV and AIDS in the state of Paraná, Brazil, 2007-2022: trends and spatiotemporal distribution.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution of the incidence rates of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) in the state of Paraná, Brazil. METHODS: An ecological study with an analytical component of time series analysis was conducted in the state of Paraná from 2007 to 2022. The data source was the Notifiable Diseases Information System. To study the trend, the Prais-Winsten generalized linear regression model was used by decomposing the time series, and for spatial analysis, the Moran's index was applied. RESULTS: The total sample consisted of 50,676 HIV/AIDS records. The incidence rate showed an increasing trend, with an average growth of 2.14% [95% confidence interval - 95%CI 1.16-3.13] per month. From 2007 to 2014 and from 2015 to 2022, the average number of cases in the state was 105.64 and 159.20 per 100,000 inhabitants, respectively, with significant variation among municipalities. Spatial clusters of high risk persisted in the metropolitan region, the capital, and coastal areas, and a new cluster was observed in the northern region of the state. CONCLUSION: The incidence rates of HIV/AIDS showed an upward trend over time. The number of cases varied considerably in some municipalities, especially in the coastal region. Spatial analysis revealed geospatial patterns of high risk in the main metropolitan areas of Paraná: Curitiba (including the coastal area), Londrina, and Maringá, which share characteristics such as a high degree of urbanization and ongoing economic development.

A proposal to evaluate the management of tuberculosis programs: a qualitative, evaluability assessment in the border region of Brazil and Venezuela.

This study aims to analyze the feasibility of building an evaluative model for the management of the Tuberculosis Prevention and Control Program in the State of Roraima, located on the border between Brazil and Venezuela. This is an evaluability assessment, a type of study used as a pre-evaluation of the development and implementation stages of a program, as well as throughout its execution. The study was developed in stages comprising the: (i) definition of the intervention to be analyzed and its objectives and goals; (ii) construction of the intervention logical model; (iii) screening of parties interested in the evaluation; (iv) definition of the evaluative questions; and (v) design of the evaluation matrix. Four priority components were defined for the evaluation: management of the organization and implementation of tuberculosis (TB) prevention and control policy; epidemiological surveillance management; care network management; and management of expected/achieved results. In this model, and based on theoretical references, we defined the necessary resources, activities, outputs, outcomes, and the expected impact for each of the policy management components. The management of the TB control program is feasible for evaluation based on the design of its components, the definition of structure and process indicators, and relevant results for the analysis of the management of TB prevention and control actions, as well as its influence on compliance with the agreed indicators and targets aiming at eradicating the disease by 2035.

Unsuccessful tuberculosis treatment outcomes across Brazil's geographical landscape before and during the COVID-19 pandemic: are we truly advancing toward the sustainable development/end TB goal?

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis is one of the most significant infectious diseases for global public health. The reallocation of healthcare resources and the restrictions imposed by the COVID-19 pandemic have hindered access to TB diagnosis and treatment. Increases in unfavorable outcomes of the disease have been observed in Brazil. The objective of this study was to analyze the spatial distribution of unfavorable TB treatment outcomes in Brazil before and during the pandemic. METHODS: An ecological study with spatial analysis was conducted with all 5569 municipalities in Brazil. All reported cases of tuberculosis between January 2010 and December 2021, as well as reported cases of COVID-19 from February 2020 to December 2021, were included. The outcomes studied encompass loss to follow-up, drug-resistant tuberculosis, and death. The Getis Ord GI* technique was employed to assess spatial association, and the Kernel density estimator was used to identify areas with concentrated increases or decreases in outcomes. Bivariate Local Moran's I was used to examine the spatial association between outcomes and COVID-19 incidence. The study was approved by the Research Ethics Committee of Ribeirão Preto Nursing School, University of São Paulo. RESULTS: There were 134,394 cases of loss to follow-up, 10,270 cases of drug resistance, and 37,863 deaths. Clusters of high and low values were identified for all three outcomes, indicating significant changes in the spatial distribution patterns. Increases in concentrations were observed for lost to follow-up cases in the Southeast, while reductions occurred in the Northeast, South, and Midwest. Drug-resistant tuberculosis experienced an increase in the Southern and Southeastern regions and a decrease in the Northeast and South. TB-related deaths showed notable concentrations in the Midwest, Northeast, South, and Southeast. There was an increase in high occurrence clusters for deaths after 2020 and 2021 in the Northeast. CONCLUSIONS: The pandemic has brought additional challenges, emphasizing the importance of enhancing efforts and disease control strategies, prioritizing early identification, treatment adherence, and follow-up. This commitment is vital for achieving the goal of tuberculosis elimination.

Acesso e qualidade da alimentação: percepção da população em situação de rua / Acceso y calidad de la alimentación: percepción de personas en situación de calle / Access to food and food quality: perception of the homeless population

Resumo Objetivo Compreender a percepção do acesso e da qualidade da alimentação para a população em situação de rua. Métodos Estudo descritivo qualitativo, realizado em um Centro de Referência da População de Rua na região centro-sul de Belo Horizonte (MG). Utilizou-se roteiro semiestruturado para a realização das entrevistas de 18 participantes. A coleta de dados ocorreu entre dezembro de 2020 e janeiro de 2021. A análise temática do material, proposta por Bardin, possibilitou a elaboração de três categorias empíricas. Resultados O público entrevistado era masculino, com idade média de 43 anos e tempo médio de situação de rua de 44,6 meses. O acesso à alimentação foi proveniente das doações de alimentos, refeições em instituições governamentais e aquisições ao dispor de renda. Foram relatadas dificuldades quanto à quantidade e qualidade dos alimentos, à aquisição das refeições nos fins de semana, aos sentimentos de medo e angústia perante a fome, à falta do alimento e pelo estigma social, agravados pela COVID-19. Conclusão Diante do cenário de iniquidades sociais, o direito ao acesso à alimentação não é garantido, sendo necessária a implementação de políticas públicas de proteção social que garantam os direitos básicos.

Resumen Objetivo Comprender la percepción del acceso y de la calidad de la alimentación según personas en situación de calle. Métodos Estudio descriptivo cualitativo, realizado en un Centro de Referencia de Personas de la Calle en la región centro-sur de Belo Horizonte (Minas Gerais). Se utilizó un guion semiestructurado para realizar entrevistas a 18 participantes. La recopilación de datos se realizó entre diciembre de 2020 y enero de 2021. El análisis temático del material, propuesto por Bardin, permitió la elaboración de tres categorías empíricas. Resultados El público entrevistado era masculino, de 43 años de edad promedio y tiempo promedio de situación de calle de 44,6 meses. El acceso a la alimentación fue proveniente de donaciones de alimentos, comidas en instituciones gubernamentales y adquisiciones al disponer de ingresos. Las personas relataron dificultades con relación a la cantidad y calidad de los alimentos, a la adquisición de comida los fines de semana, a los sentimientos de miedo y angustia ante el hambre, a la falta de alimentos y al estigma social, agravados por el COVID-19. Conclusión Ante el escenario de iniquidades sociales, el derecho al acceso a la alimentación no está garantizado, por lo cual es necesario implementar políticas públicas de protección social que garanticen los derechos básicos.

Abstract Objective To understand the perception of access to food and food quality for the street population. Methods This qualitative descriptive study was performed in a Reference Center for the Homeless Population in the south-central region of Belo Horizonte (MG). A semi-structured script was used to conduct interviews with 18 participants. Data collection occurred between December 2020 and January 2021. The thematic analysis of the material, as proposed by Bardin, made it possible to elaborate three empirical categories. Results The public interviewed was male, with a mean age of 43 years, and a mean time on the streets of 44.6 months. Access to food came from donations, meals at government institutions, and acquisition when income was available. Difficulties were reported regarding the quantity and quality of food, acquisition of meals on weekends, feelings of fear and anguish in the face of hunger, lack of food, and social stigma, which were aggravated by COVID-19. Conclusion As in this scenario of social inequalities the access to food is not guaranteed, implementing public policies of social protection is necessary to guarantee basic rights.

Analysis of Survival of Pediatric Patients with Leukemias and Lymphomas in the Oncological Context: Epidemiological Study in the State of São Paulo, Brazil, 2000-2022

Introduction: The time taken for screening, detection and initiation of treatment is a determining factor for therapeutic management in oncology. The availability of reliable data guides decisions for public policies and evaluates compliance with these policies. Objective:To analyze the survival and outcomes of pediatric patients with leukemia and lymphoma from 2000 to 2022. Method: Epidemiological, descriptive study, with data extracted from Fundação Oncocentro do Estado de São Paulo, according to the International Classification of Childhood Cancer (ICCC). The time elapsed between the first consultation and diagnosis was evaluated, between diagnosis and the start of oncological treatment, and the survival of these patients, calculated according to the Peto-Peto test. Results: 12,030 cases were analyzed, 6,994 in males and 7,292 with leukemia. The probability of the time between consultation and diagnosis exceeds 30 days was 49.29% for leukemias and 76.31 for lymphomas, a significant result for treatment and relapses (p < 0.001) but not in relation to sex; the time between diagnosis and treatment exceeding 60 days was 38.04% for leukemias and 71.97% for lymphomas. Not undergoing treatment was significant (p < 0.001) while waiting for diagnosis after consultation for patients with leukemia and lymphomas, except surgery, chemotherapy and radiotherapy combined. Conclusion: Despite the advances, a considerable percentage of patients wait longer than expected for diagnosis and initiation of treatment, impacting their survival rates

ntrodução: O tempo no rastreio, detecção e início do tratamento é fator determinante para o manejo terapêutico em oncologia. A disponibilidade de dados confiáveis orienta decisões para políticas públicas e avalia o cumprimento dessas políticas. Objetivo: Analisar a sobrevivência e desfechos de pacientes pediátricos com leucemias e linfomas de 2000 a 2022. Método:Estudo epidemiológico, descritivo, com dados extraídos da Fundação Oncocentro do Estado de São Paulo, segundo a Classificação Internacional de Câncer na Infância. Avaliou-se o tempo decorrido entre a primeira consulta e o diagnóstico; entre o diagnóstico e o início do tratamento oncológico; e a sobrevivência desses pacientes, calculada conforme o teste Peto-Peto. Resultados: Foram analisados 12.030 casos, com prevalência no sexo masculino 6.994; 7.292 corresponderam às leucemias. A probabilidade de o tempo entre a consulta e o diagnóstico ter sido superior a 30 dias foi de 49,29% para as leucemias e de 76,31 para os linfomas, significativo para o tratamento e recidivas (p < 0,001) e não por sexo; o tempo entre o diagnóstico e tratamento, superior a 60 dias, foi de 38,04% para as leucemias e de 71,97% para os linfomas. Não realizar tratamento foi significante (p< 0,001) na espera entre a consulta e o diagnóstico para os pacientes com leucemias; o mesmo para os linfomas, exceto para a combinação de cirurgia, quimioterapia e radioterapia. Conclusão: À despeito dos avanços obtidos, uma porcentagem considerável de pacientes aguarda um tempo maior do que o esperado para o diagnóstico e o início do tratamento, repercutindo nas taxas de sobrevivência desses pacientes

Introducción: El tiempo necesario para el screening, detección e inicio del tratamiento es un factor determinante para el manejo terapéutico en oncología. La disponibilidad de datos confiables orienta las decisiones de políticas públicas y evalúa el cumplimiento de estas políticas. Objetivo:Analizar la supervivencia y desenlaces de pacientes pediátricos con leucemia y linfoma en el período de 2000 a 2022. Método: Estudio epidemiológico, descriptivo, con datos extraídos de la Fundación Oncocentro del estado de São Paulo, según la Clasificación Internacional del Cáncer Infantil. Se evaluó el tiempo transcurrido entre la primera consulta y el diagnóstico; entre el diagnóstico y el inicio del tratamiento oncológico, y la supervivencia de estos pacientes, calculada según la prueba de Peto-Peto. Resultados: Se analizaron 12 030 casos, con una prevalencia masculina de 6994; 7292 correspondieron a leucemia. La probabilidad de que el tiempo entre consulta y diagnóstico sea mayor a 30 días fue del 49,29% para leucemias y del 76,31 para linfomas, significativa para tratamiento y recaídas (p < 0,001) y no para sexo; para el tiempo entre diagnóstico y tratamiento, superior a 60 días, fue del 38,04% para las leucemias y del 71,97% para los linfomas. No recibir tratamiento fue significativo (p < 0,001) en la espera entre la consulta y el diagnóstico en pacientes con leucemia; lo mismo para los linfomas, excepto la combinación de cirugía, quimioterapia y radioterapia. Conclusión: A pesar de los avances logrados, un porcentaje considerable de pacientes espera un tiempo más de lo esperado para el diagnóstico y el inicio del tratamiento, impactando en las tasas de supervivencia de estos pacientes.

A proposal to evaluate the management of tuberculosis programs: a qualitative, evaluability assessment in the border region of Brazil and Venezuela / Uma proposta de avaliação da gestão de programas de controle da tuberculose: um estudo qualitativo de avaliabilidade na fronteira entre Brasil e Venezuela / Una propuesta de evaluación de la gestión de programas de control de la tuberculosis: un estudio cualitativo de evaluabilidad en la franja fronteriza entre Brasil y Venezuela

This study aims to analyze the feasibility of building an evaluative model for the management of the Tuberculosis Prevention and Control Program in the State of Roraima, located on the border between Brazil and Venezuela. This is an evaluability assessment, a type of study used as a pre-evaluation of the development and implementation stages of a program, as well as throughout its execution. The study was developed in stages comprising the: (i) definition of the intervention to be analyzed and its objectives and goals; (ii) construction of the intervention logical model; (iii) screening of parties interested in the evaluation; (iv) definition of the evaluative questions; and (v) design of the evaluation matrix. Four priority components were defined for the evaluation: management of the organization and implementation of tuberculosis (TB) prevention and control policy; epidemiological surveillance management; care network management; and management of expected/achieved results. In this model, and based on theoretical references, we defined the necessary resources, activities, outputs, outcomes, and the expected impact for each of the policy management components. The management of the TB control program is feasible for evaluation based on the design of its components, the definition of structure and process indicators, and relevant results for the analysis of the management of TB prevention and control actions, as well as its influence on compliance with the agreed indicators and targets aiming at eradicating the disease by 2035.

Objetivou-se examinar a viabilidade da construção de um modelo avaliativo para a gestão do Programa de Prevenção e Controle da Tuberculose no Estado de Roraima, localizado na fronteira entre Brasil e Venezuela. Trata-se de um estudo de avaliabilidade, um tipo de estudo utilizado como pré-avaliação na fase de desenvolvimento e implementação de um programa, bem como ao longo de sua execução. O estudo foi desenvolvido em etapas: (i) definição da intervenção a ser analisada e seus objetivos e metas; (ii) construção do modelo lógico da intervenção; (iii) mapeamento dos interessados na avaliação; (iv) definição das questões avaliativas e (v) delineamento da matriz de avaliação. Foram definidos quatro componentes prioritários para avaliação: gestão da organização e implementação da política de prevenção e controle da tuberculose (TB), gestão da vigilância epidemiológica, gestão da rede de atenção à saúde e gestão dos resultados esperados/obtidos. Nesse modelo, e com base em referenciais teóricos, definimos os recursos, atividades, produtos, resultados e o impacto esperado para cada um dos componentes de gestão de políticas. A gestão do programa de controle da TB é passível de avaliação a partir do delineamento de seus componentes e da definição de indicadores de estrutura e processo, assim como de resultados relevantes e sua influência para o cumprimento das metas pactuadas, visando erradicar a doença até 2035.

El objetivo fue analizar la viabilidad de elaborar un modelo de evaluación para la gestión del Programa de Prevención y Control de la Tuberculosis en el Estado de Roraima, que está en la frontera entre Brasil y Venezuela. Se trata de un estudio de evaluabilidad, un modelo de estudio que se utiliza como evaluación previa en la fase de desarrollo e implementación de un programa, así como a lo largo de su ejecución. El desarrollo del estudio se realizó en etapas: (i) definir la intervención a analizar y sus objetivos y metas; (ii) construir el modelo lógico de la intervención; (iii) mapear los interesados en la evaluación; (iv) definir las preguntas de la evaluación; y (v) trazar la matriz de evaluación. Se definieron cuatro componentes prioritarios para la evaluación: la gestión de la organización e implementación de la política de prevención y control de la tuberculosis (TB), la gestión de la vigilancia epidemiológica, la gestión de la red de atención a la salud y la gestión de los resultados esperados/obtenidos. En este modelo, y basándonos en referentes teóricos, definimos los recursos, actividades, productos, resultados y el impacto esperado para cada uno de los componentes de la gestión de políticas. La gestión del programa de control de la TB puede evaluarse a partir del diseño de sus componentes y de la definición de indicadores de estructura y proceso, así como de resultados relevantes y su influencia para el cumplimiento de las metas pactadas, con el fin de erradicar la enfermedad para 2035.

Social protection in areas vulnerable to tuberculosis: a mixed methods study in São Luís, Maranhão / Protección social en zonas vulnerables a la tuberculosis: un estudio mixto en São Luís, Maranhão / Proteção social em áreas vulneráveis à tuberculose: um estudo misto em São Luís, Maranhão

ABSTRACT Objectives: to analyze the risk areas for tuberculosis and the influences of social protection on the development of treatment for the disease in the municipality of São Luís, Maranhão. Methods: this is explanatory sequential mixed method research. In the quantitative phase, the data were obtained from the Notifiable Diseases Information System from 2010 to 2019, with georeferencing being carried out to identify areas vulnerable to tuberculosis. In the qualitative phase, semi-structured interviews were carried out with individuals who received social benefits. Results: 7,381 cases were geocoded, and, from the purely spatial scanning analysis, it was possible to identify 13 spatial clusters of risk. As for the interviews, there was a positive relationship between patient improvement and receiving benefits. Conclusions: geographic space and social determinants are relevant for reorienting monitoring actions for the conditions that generate the health-disease process.

RESUMEN Objetivos: analizar las áreas de riesgo para la tuberculosis y las influencias de la protección social en el desarrollo del tratamiento de la enfermedad en el municipio de São Luís, Maranhão. Métodos: se trata de una investigación explicativa de método mixto secuencial. En la fase cuantitativa, los datos se obtuvieron del Sistema de Información de Enfermedades de Declaración Obligatoria del 2010 al 2019, realizándose georreferenciación para identificar áreas vulnerables a la tuberculosis. En la fase cualitativa se realizaron entrevistas semiestructuradas a personas que recibían beneficios sociales. Resultados: se geocodificaron 7.381 casos y, a partir del análisis de escaneo puramente espacial, fue posible identificar 13 grupos espaciales de riesgo. En cuanto a las entrevistas, hubo una relación positiva entre la mejora del paciente y la recepción de beneficios. Conclusiones: el espacio geográfico y los determinantes sociales son relevantes para reorientar las acciones de seguimiento de las condiciones que generan el proceso salud-enfermedad.

RESUMO Objetivos: analisar as áreas de risco para a tuberculose e as influências da proteção social no desenvolvimento do tratamento para a doença no município de São Luís, Maranhão. Métodos: trata-se de pesquisa de método misto sequencial explanatório. Na fase quantitativa, os dados foram obtidos do Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação de 2010 a 2019, sendo realizado georreferenciamento para identificação das áreas vulneráveis à tuberculose. Na fase qualitativa, realizaram-se entrevistas semiestruturadas com indivíduos que recebiam benefício social. Resultados: foram geocodificados 7.381 casos, e, a partir da análise de varredura puramente espacial, foi possível identificar 13 aglomerados espaciais de risco. Quanto às entrevistas, verificou-se uma relação positiva entre a melhora dos pacientes e o recebimento de benefícios. Conclusões: o espaço geográfico e os determinantes sociais são relevantes para reorientação das ações de monitoramento das condições geradoras do processo saúde-doença.

HIV and AIDS in the state of Paraná, Brazil, 2007-2022: trends and spatiotemporal distribution / HIV e AIDS no Estado do Paraná, Brasil, 2007-2022: tendência e distribuição espaçotemporal

ABSTRACT Objective: The aim of this study was to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution of the incidence rates of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) in the state of Paraná, Brazil. Methods: An ecological study with an analytical component of time series analysis was conducted in the state of Paraná from 2007 to 2022. The data source was the Notifiable Diseases Information System. To study the trend, the Prais-Winsten generalized linear regression model was used by decomposing the time series, and for spatial analysis, the Moran's index was applied. Results: The total sample consisted of 50,676 HIV/AIDS records. The incidence rate showed an increasing trend, with an average growth of 2.14% [95% confidence interval - 95%CI 1.16-3.13] per month. From 2007 to 2014 and from 2015 to 2022, the average number of cases in the state was 105.64 and 159.20 per 100,000 inhabitants, respectively, with significant variation among municipalities. Spatial clusters of high risk persisted in the metropolitan region, the capital, and coastal areas, and a new cluster was observed in the northern region of the state. Conclusion: The incidence rates of HIV/AIDS showed an upward trend over time. The number of cases varied considerably in some municipalities, especially in the coastal region. Spatial analysis revealed geospatial patterns of high risk in the main metropolitan areas of Paraná: Curitiba (including the coastal area), Londrina, and Maringá, which share characteristics such as a high degree of urbanization and ongoing economic development.

RESUMO Objetivo: Este estudo teve como objetivo analisar a evolução espaçotemporal das taxas de incidência do vírus da imunodeficiência humana (HIV) e da síndrome da imunodeficiência adquirida (AIDS) no estado do Paraná, Brasil. Métodos: Foi realizado um estudo ecológico com componente analítico de séries temporais e análise espacial no estado do Paraná, de 2007 a 2022. A fonte de dados foi o Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação. Para estudar a tendência, foi utilizado o modelo de regressão linear generalizada de Prais-Winsten por meio da decomposição de séries temporais e, para a análise espacial, foi aplicado o Índice de Moran. Resultados: A amostra total foi composta de 50.676 registros de HIV/AIDS. A taxa de incidência apresentou tendência crescente, com crescimento médio de 2,14% (intervalo de confiança de 95% — IC95% 1,16-3,13) ao mês. Nos períodos de 2007 a 2014 e 2015 a 2022, a média de casos no estado foi de 105,64 e 159,20 a cada 100 mil habitantes, respectivamente, com importantes variações entre os municípios. Agrupamentos espaciais de alto risco permaneceram na região metropolitana à capital e litoral e um novo agrupamento foi observado à região norte do estado. Conclusão: As taxas de incidência do HIV/AIDS apresentaram tendência temporal crescente. O número de casos variou substancialmente em alguns municípios, principalmente naqueles localizados na região litorânea. A análise espacial revelou padrões geoespaciais de alto risco nas principais regiões metropolitanas do Paraná: Curitiba (abrange o litoral), Londrina e Maringá, as quais compartilham características como elevado grau de urbanização e constante desenvolvimento econômico.

Validity of the Brazilian online version of the Sexual Desire Inventory 2

SUMMARY The Sexual Desire Inventory 2 is a self-report instrument for assessing sexual desire in men and women. In Brazil, there is no validated sexual desire self-report for the adult population. Objective: The aim of this study was to determine the evidence of validity for the content and construct of the Brazilian online version of the Sexual Desire Inventory 2. Methods: This was a cross-sectional study with Brazilian men and women. The sample size was calculated using the criterion of more than 20 participants per item. The invitation to participate in the study was conducted online by the platform Survey Monkey®. The Sexual Desire Inventory 2 was evaluated for content, construct, reliability, and invariance. Results: A total of 818 female and male adults participated in the study. The two-dimensional factorial solution represented 71% of the total variance explained by the model, and the factorial loads of the model were ≥0.40; commonalities presented values ≥0.23. Reliability was measured by the coefficients of Cronbach's alpha with a total score of 0.87, McDonald's of 0.87, Omega, and greatest lower bound with a total score of 0.95. The metric invariance was tested for the sex variables ΔCFI (comparative fit index) and ΔRMSEA (root mean square error of approximation) with a total score of 0.01. Conclusion: The analyses indicate evidence of robust validity in the Brazilian online version of the Sexual Desire Inventory 2.