Mechanistic modeling of alarm signaling in seed-harvester ants.

Ant colonies demonstrate a finely tuned alarm response to potential threats, offering a uniquely manageable empirical setting for exploring adaptive information diffusion within groups. To effectively address potential dangers, a social group must swiftly communicate the threat throughout the collective while conserving energy in the event that the threat is unfounded. Through a combination of modeling, simulation, and empirical observations of alarm spread and damping patterns, we identified the behavioral rules governing this adaptive response. Experimental trials involving alarmed ant workers (Pogonomyrmex californicus) released into a tranquil group of nestmates revealed a consistent pattern of rapid alarm propagation followed by a comparatively extended decay period [1]. The experiments in [1] showed that individual ants exhibiting alarm behavior increased their movement speed, with variations in response to alarm stimuli, particularly during the peak of the reaction. We used the data in [1] to investigate whether these observed characteristics alone could account for the swift mobility increase and gradual decay of alarm excitement. Our self-propelled particle model incorporated a switch-like mechanism for ants' response to alarm signals and individual variations in the intensity of speed increased after encountering these signals. This study aligned with the established hypothesis that individual ants possess cognitive abilities to process and disseminate information, contributing to collective cognition within the colony (see [2] and the references therein). The elements examined in this research support this hypothesis by reproducing statistical features of the empirical speed distribution across various parameter values.

Dynamics of Information Flow and Task Allocation of Social Insect Colonies: Impacts of Spatial Interactions and Task Switching.

Models of social interaction dynamics have been powerful tools for understanding the efficiency of information spread and the robustness of task allocation in social insect colonies. How workers spatially distribute within the colony, or spatial heterogeneity degree (SHD), plays a vital role in contact dynamics, influencing information spread and task allocation. We used agent-based models to explore factors affecting spatial heterogeneity and information flow, including the number of task groups, variation in spatial arrangements, and levels of task switching, to study: (1) the impact of multiple task groups on SHD, contact dynamics, and information spread, and (2) the impact of task switching on SHD and contact dynamics. Both models show a strong linear relationship between the dynamics of SHD and contact dynamics, which exists for different initial conditions. The multiple-task-group model without task switching reveals the impacts of the number and spatial arrangements of task locations on information transmission. The task-switching model allows task-switching with a probability through contact between individuals. The model indicates that the task-switching mechanism enables a dynamical state of task-related spatial fidelity at the individual level. This spatial fidelity can assist the colony in redistributing their workforce, with consequent effects on the dynamics of spatial heterogeneity degree. The spatial fidelity of a task group is the proportion of workers who perform that task and have preferential walking styles toward their task location. Our analysis shows that the task switching rate between two tasks is an exponentially decreasing function of the spatial fidelity and contact rate. Higher spatial fidelity leads to more agents aggregating to task location, reducing contact between groups, thus making task switching more difficult. Our results provide important insights into the mechanisms that generate spatial heterogeneity and deepen our understanding of how spatial heterogeneity impacts task allocation, social interaction, and information spread.

Effect of Human Behavior on the Evolution of Viral Strains During an Epidemic.

It is well known in the literature that human behavior can change as a reaction to disease observed in others, and that such behavioral changes can be an important factor in the spread of an epidemic. It has been noted that human behavioral traits in disease avoidance are under selection in the presence of infectious diseases. Here, we explore a complementary trend: the pathogen itself might experience a force of selection to become less "visible," or less "symptomatic," in the presence of such human behavioral trends. Using a stochastic SIR agent-based model, we investigated the co-evolution of two viral strains with cross-immunity, where the resident strain is symptomatic while the mutant strain is asymptomatic. We assumed that individuals exercised self-regulated social distancing (SD) behavior if one of their neighbors was infected with a symptomatic strain. We observed that the proportion of asymptomatic carriers increased over time with a stronger effect corresponding to higher levels of self-regulated SD. Adding mandated SD made the effect more significant, while the existence of a time-delay between the onset of infection and the change of behavior reduced the advantage of the asymptomatic strain. These results were consistent under random geometric networks, scale-free networks, and a synthetic network that represented the social behavior of the residents of New Orleans.

Decoding alarm signal propagation of seed-harvester ants using automated movement tracking and supervised machine learning.

Alarm signal propagation through ant colonies provides an empirically tractable context for analysing information flow through a natural system, with useful insights for network dynamics in other social animals. Here, we develop a methodological approach to track alarm spread within a group of harvester ants, Pogonomyrmex californicus. We initially alarmed three ants and tracked subsequent signal transmission through the colony. Because there was no actual standing threat, the false alarm allowed us to assess amplification and adaptive damping of the collective alarm response. We trained a random forest regression model to quantify alarm behaviour of individual workers from multiple movement features. Our approach translates subjective categorical alarm scores into a reliable, continuous variable. We combined these assessments with automatically tracked proximity data to construct an alarm propagation network. This method enables analyses of spatio-temporal patterns in alarm signal propagation in a group of ants and provides an opportunity to integrate individual and collective alarm response. Using this system, alarm propagation can be manipulated and assessed to ask and answer a wide range of questions related to information and misinformation flow in social networks.

Generating a heterosexual bipartite network embedded in social network.

We describe an approach to generate a heterosexual network with a prescribed joint-degree distribution embedded in a prescribed large-scale social contact network. The structure of a sexual network plays an important role in how all sexually transmitted infections (STIs) spread. Generating an ensemble of networks that mimics the real-world is crucial to evaluating robust mitigation strategies for controlling STIs. Most of the current algorithms to generate sexual networks only use sexual activity data, such as the number of partners per month, to generate the sexual network. Real-world sexual networks also depend on biased mixing based on age, location, and social and work activities. We describe an approach to use a broad range of social activity data to generate possible heterosexual networks. We start with a large-scale simulation of thousands of people in a city as they go through their daily activities, including work, school, shopping, and activities at home. We extract a social network from these activities where the nodes are the people, and the edges indicate a social interaction, such as working in the same location. This social network captures the correlations between people of different ages, living in different locations, their economic status, and other demographic factors. We use the social contact network to define a bipartite heterosexual network that is embedded within an extended social network. The resulting sexual network captures the biased mixing inherent in the social network, and models based on this pairing of networks can be used to investigate novel intervention strategies based on the social contacts among infected people. We illustrate the approach in a model for the spread of chlamydia in the heterosexual network representing the young sexually active community in New Orleans.

Network models and the interpretation of prolonged infection plateaus in the COVID19 pandemic.

Non-pharmaceutical intervention measures, such as social distancing, have so far been the only means to slow the spread of SARS-CoV-2. In the United States, strict social distancing during the first wave of virus spread has resulted in different types of infection dynamics. In some states, such as New York, extensive infection spread was followed by a pronounced decline of infection levels. In other states, such as California, less infection spread occurred before strict social distancing, and a different pattern was observed. Instead of a pronounced infection decline, a long-lasting plateau is evident, characterized by similar daily new infection levels. Here we show that network models, in which individuals and their social contacts are explicitly tracked, can reproduce the plateau if network connections are cut due to social distancing measures. The reason is that in networks characterized by a 2D spatial structure, infection tends to spread quadratically with time, but as edges are randomly removed, the infection spreads along nearly one-dimensional infection "corridors", resulting in plateau dynamics. Further, we show that plateau dynamics are observed only if interventions start sufficiently early; late intervention leads to a "peak and decay" pattern. Interestingly, the plateau dynamics are predicted to eventually transition into an infection decline phase without any further increase in social distancing measures. Additionally, the models suggest that a second wave becomes significantly less pronounced if social distancing is only relaxed once the dynamics have transitioned to the decline phase. The network models analyzed here allow us to interpret and reconcile different infection dynamics during social distancing observed in various US states.

Using an agent-based sexual-network model to analyze the impact of mitigation efforts for controlling chlamydia.

Chlamydia trachomatis (Ct) is the most reported sexually transmitted infection in the United States, with a major cause of infertility, pelvic inflammatory disease, and ectopic pregnancy among women. Despite decades of screening women for Ct, rates increase among young African Americans (AA). We create and analyze a heterosexual agent-based network model to help understand the spread of Ct. We calibrate the model parameters to agree with survey data showing Ct prevalence of 12% of the women and 10% of the men in the 15-25 year-old AA in New Orleans, Louisiana. Our model accounts for both long-term and casual partnerships. The network captures the assortative mixing of individuals by preserving the joint-degree distributions observed in the data. We compare the effectiveness of intervention strategies based on randomly screening men, notifying partners of infected people, which includes partner treatment, partner screening, and rescreening for infection. We compare the difference between treating partners of an infected person both with and without testing them. We observe that although increased Ct screening, rescreening, and treating most of the partners of infected people will reduce the prevalence, these mitigations alone are not sufficient to control the epidemic. The current practice is to treat the partners of an infected individual without first testing them for infection. The model predicts that if a sufficient number of the partners of all infected people are tested and treated, then there is a threshold condition where the epidemic can be mitigated. This threshold results from the expanded treatment network created by treating an individual's infected partners' partners. Although these conclusions can help design future Ct mitigation studies, we caution the reader that these conclusions are for the mathematical model, not the real world, and are contingent on the validity of the model assumptions.

Effect of screening young men for Chlamydia trachomatis on the rates among women: a network modelling study for high-prevalence communities.

OBJECTIVE: Chlamydia trachomatis (Ct) is the most commonly reported sexually transmitted infection in the USA and causes important reproductive morbidity in women. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommend routine screening of sexually active women under age 25 but not among men. Despite three decades of screening women, chlamydia prevalence in women remains high. Untested and untreated men can serve as a reservoir of infection in women, and male-screening based intervention can be an effective strategy to reduce infection in women. We assessed the impact of screening men on the Ct prevalence in women. DESIGN: We created an individual-based network model to simulate a realistic chlamydia epidemic on sexual contact networks for a synthetic population (n=5000). The model is calibrated to the ongoing routine screening among African American (AA) women in the USA and detailed a male-screening programme, Check It, that bundles best practices for Ct control. We used sensitivity analysis to quantify the relative importance of each intervention component. SETTING: Community-based venues in New Orleans, Louisiana, USA. PARTICIPANTS: Heterosexual AA men, aged 15 to 24, who had sex with women in the past 2 months. INTERVENTION: Venue-based screening, expedited index treatment, expedited partner treatment and rescreening. RESULTS: We estimate that by annually screening 7.5% of the AA male population in the age-range, the chlamydia prevalence would be reduced relatively by 8.1% (95% CI 5.9% to 10.4%) in AA women and 8.8% (95% CI 6.9% to 10.8%) in AA men. Each man screened could prevent 0.062 (95% CI 0.030 to 0.094) cases in men and 0.204 (95% CI 0.143 to 0.267) cases in women. The model suggested the importance of intervention components ranked from high to low as venue-based screening, expedited index treatment, expedited partner treatment and rescreening. CONCLUSION: The findings indicated that male-screening has the potential to substantially reduce the prevalence among women in high-prevalence communities.

Dynamics of an SIS network model with a periodic infection rate.

Seasonal forcing and contact patterns are two key features of many disease dynamics that generate periodic patterns. Both features have not been ascertained deeply in the previous works. In this work, we develop and analyze a non-autonomous degree-based mean field network model within a Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) framework. We assume that the disease transmission rate being periodic to study synergistic impacts of the periodic transmission and the heterogeneity of the contact network on the infection threshold and dynamics for seasonal diseases. We demonstrate both analytically and numerically that (1) the disease free equilibrium point is globally asymptotically stable if the basic reproduction number is less than one; and (2) there exists a unique global periodic solution that both susceptible and infected individuals coexist if the basic reproduction number is larger than one. We apply our framework to Scale-free contact networks for the simulation. Our results show that heterogeneity in the contact networks plays an important role in accelerating disease spreading and increasing the amplitude of the periodic steady state solution. These results confirm the need to address factors that create periodic patterns and contact patterns in seasonal disease when making policies to control an outbreak.

Dynamics of social interactions, in the flow of information and disease spreading in social insects colonies: Effects of environmental events and spatial heterogeneity.

The relationship between division of labor and individuals' spatial behavior in social insect colonies provides a useful context to study how social interactions influence the spreading of elements (which could be information, virus or food) across distributed agent systems. In social insect colonies, spatial heterogeneity associated with variations of individual task roles, affects social contacts, and thus the way in which agent moves through social contact networks. We used an Agent Based Model (ABM) to mimic three realistic scenarios of elements' transmission, such as information, food or pathogens, via physical contact in social insect colonies. Our model suggests that individuals within a specific task interact more with consequences that elements could potentially spread rapidly within that group, while elements spread slower between task groups. Our simulations show a strong linear relationship between the degree of spatial heterogeneity and social contact rates, and that the spreading dynamics of elements follow a modified nonlinear logistic growth model with varied transmission rates for different scenarios. Our work provides important insights on the dual-functionality of physical contacts. This dual-functionality is often driven via variations of individual spatial behavior, and can have both inhibiting and facilitating effects on elements' transmission rates depending on environment. The results from our proposed model not only provide important insights on mechanisms that generate spatial heterogeneity, but also deepen our understanding of how social insect colonies balance the benefit and cost of physical contacts on the elements' transmission under varied environmental conditions.

Epidemics on networks: Reducing disease transmission using health emergency declarations and peer communication.

Understanding individual decisions in a world where communications and information move instantly via cell phones and the internet, contributes to the development and implementation of policies aimed at stopping or ameliorating the spread of diseases. In this manuscript, the role of official social network perturbations generated by public health officials to slow down or stop a disease outbreak are studied over distinct classes of static social networks. The dynamics are stochastic in nature with individuals (nodes) being assigned fixed levels of education or wealth. Nodes may change their epidemiological status from susceptible, to infected and to recovered. Most importantly, it is assumed that when the prevalence reaches a pre-determined threshold level, P * , information, called awareness in our framework, starts to spread, a process triggered by public health authorities. Information is assumed to spread over the same static network and whether or not one becomes a temporary informer, is a function of his/her level of education or wealth and epidemiological status. Stochastic simulations show that threshold selection P * and the value of the average basic reproduction number impact the final epidemic size differentially. For the Erdos-Rényi and Small-world networks, an optimal choice for P * that minimize the final epidemic size can be identified under some conditions while for Scale-free networks this is not case.

A Risk-based Model for Predicting the Impact of using Condoms on the Spread of Sexually Transmitted Infections.

We create and analyze a mathematical model to estimate the impact of condom-use and sexual behavior on the prevalence and spread of Sexually Transmitted Infections (STIs). STIs remain a significant public health challenge globally with a high burden of some Sexually Transmitted Diseases (STDs) in both developed and undeveloped countries. Although condom-use is known to reduce the transmission of STIs, there are a few quantitated population-based studies on the protective role of condom-use in reducing the incidence of STIs. The number of concurrent partners is correlated with their risk of being infectious by a STI such as chlamydia, gonorrhea, or syphilis. We define a Susceptible-Infectious-Susceptible (SIS) model that distributes the population by the number of concurrent partners. The model captures the multi-level heterogeneous mixing through a combination of biased (preferential) and random mixing between individuals with different risks, and accounts for differences in condom-use in the low- and high-risk populations. We use sensitivity analysis to assess the relative impact of high-risk people using condom as a prophylactic to reduce their chance of being infectious, or infecting others. The model predicts the STI prevalence as a function of the number of partners that a person has, and quantifies how this distribution changes as a function of condom-use. Our results show that when the mixing is random, then increasing the condom-use in the high-risk population is more effective in reducing the prevalence than when many of the partners of high-risk people have high risk. The model quantified how the risk of being infected increases for people who have more partners, and and the need for high-risk people to consistently use condoms to reduce their risk of infection.

Generating Bipartite Networks with a Prescribed Joint Degree Distribution.

We describe a class of new algorithms to construct bipartite networks that preserves a prescribed degree and joint-degree (degree-degree) distribution of the nodes. Bipartite networks are graphs that can represent real-world interactions between two disjoint sets, such as actor-movie networks, author-article networks, co-occurrence networks, and heterosexual partnership networks. Often there is a strong correlation between the degree of a node and the degrees of the neighbors of that node that must be preserved when generating a network that reflects the structure of the underling system. Our bipartite 2K (B2K) algorithms generate an ensemble of networks that preserve prescribed degree sequences for the two disjoint set of nodes in the bipartite network, and the joint-degree distribution that is the distribution of the degrees of all neighbors of nodes with the same degree. We illustrate the effectiveness of the algorithms on a romance network using the NetworkX software environment to compare other properties of a target network that are not directly enforced by the B2K algorithms. We observe that when average degree of nodes is low, as is the case for romance and heterosexual partnership networks, then the B2K networks tend to preserve additional properties, such as the cluster coefficients, than algorithms that do not preserve the joint-degree distribution of the original network.