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The COVID-19 pandemic led to unprecedented changes in behaviour. To estimate if these persisted, a final round of the CoMix social contact survey was conducted in four countries at a time when all societal restrictions had been lifted for several months. We conducted a survey on a nationally representative sample in the UK, Netherlands (NL), Belgium (BE), and Switzerland (CH). Participants were asked about their contacts and behaviours on the previous day. We calculated contact matrices and compared the contact levels to a pre-pandemic baseline to estimate R0. Data collection occurred from 17 November to 7 December 2022. 7477 participants were recruited. Some were asked to undertake the survey on behalf of their children. Only 14.4â¯% of all participants reported wearing a facemask on the previous day. Self-reported vaccination rates in adults were similar for each country at around 86â¯%. Trimmed mean recorded contacts were highest in NL with 9.9 (95â¯% confidence interval [CI] 9.0-10.8) contacts per person per day and lowest in CH at 6.0 (95â¯% CI 5.4-6.6). Contacts at work were lowest in the UK (1.4 contacts per person per day) and highest in NL at 2.8 contacts per person per day. Other contacts were also lower in the UK at 1.6 per person per day (95â¯% CI 1.4-1.9) and highest in NL at 3.4 recorded per person per day (95â¯% CI 43.0-4.0). The next-generation approach suggests that R0 for a close-contact disease would be roughly half pre-pandemic levels in the UK, 80â¯% in NL and intermediate in the other two countries. The pandemic appears to have resulted in lasting changes in contact patterns expected to have an impact on the epidemiology of many different pathogens. Further post-pandemic surveys are necessary to confirm this finding.
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Mumps virus is a highly transmissible pathogen that is effectively controlled in countries with high vaccination coverage. Nevertheless, outbreaks have occurred worldwide over the past decades in vaccinated populations. Here we analyse an outbreak of mumps virus genotype G among college students in the Netherlands over the period 2009-2012 using paired serological data. To identify infections in the presence of preexisting antibodies we compared mumps specific serum IgG concentrations in two consecutive samples (n=746), whereby the first sample was taken when students started their study prior to the outbreaks, and the second sample was taken 2-5 years later. We fit a binary mixture model to the data. The two mixing distributions represent uninfected and infected classes. Throughout we assume that the infection probability increases with the ratio of antibody concentrations of the second to first sample. The estimated infection attack rate in this study is higher than reported earlier (0.095 versus 0.042). The analyses yield probabilistic classifications of participants, which are mostly quite precise owing to the high intraclass correlation of samples in uninfected participants (0.85, 95%CrI: 0.82-0.87). The estimated probability of infection increases with decreasing antibody concentration in the pre-outbreak sample, such that the probability of infection is 0.12 (95%CrI: 0.10-0.13) for the lowest quartile of the pre-outbreak samples and 0.056 (95%CrI: 0.044-0.068) for the highest quartile. We discuss the implications of these insights for the design of booster vaccination strategies.
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Paperas , Humanos , Paperas/epidemiología , Paperas/prevención & control , Incidencia , Virus de la Parotiditis/genética , Brotes de Enfermedades/prevención & control , EstudiantesRESUMEN
Mpox has spread rapidly to many countries in nonendemic regions. After reviewing detailed exposure histories of 109 pairs of mpox cases in the Netherlands, we identified 34 pairs where transmission was likely and the infectee reported a single potential infector with a mean serial interval of 10.1 days (95% credible interval, 6.6-14.7 days). Further investigation into pairs from 1 regional public health service revealed that presymptomatic transmission may have occurred in 5 of 18 pairs. These findings emphasize that precaution remains key, regardless of the presence of recognizable symptoms of mpox.
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Mpox , Humanos , Países BajosRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: During the COVID-19 pandemic, social distancing measures were imposed to protect the population from exposure, especially older adults and people with frailty, who have the highest risk for severe outcomes. These restrictions greatly reduced contacts in the general population, but little was known about behaviour changes among older adults and people with frailty themselves. Our aim was to quantify how COVID-19 measures affected the contact behaviour of older adults and how this differed between older adults with and without frailty. METHODS: In 2021, a contact survey was carried out among people aged 70 years and older in the Netherlands. A random sample of persons per age group (70-74, 75-79, 80-84, 85-89, and 90 +) and gender was invited to participate, either during a period with stringent (April 2021) or moderate (October 2021) measures. Participants provided general information on themselves, including their frailty, and they reported characteristics of all persons with whom they had face-to-face contact on a given day over the course of a full week. RESULTS: In total, 720 community-dwelling older adults were included (overall response rate of 15%), who reported 16,505 contacts. During the survey period with moderate measures, participants without frailty had significantly more contacts outside their household than participants with frailty. Especially for females, frailty was a more informative predictor of the number of contacts than age. During the survey period with stringent measures, participants with and without frailty had significantly lower numbers of contacts compared to the survey period with moderate measures. The reduction of the number of contacts was largest for the eldest participants without frailty. As they interact mostly with adults of a similar high age who are likely frail, this reduction of the number of contacts indirectly protects older adults with frailty from SARS-CoV-2 exposure. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study reveal that social distancing measures during the COVID-19 pandemic differentially affected the contact patterns of older adults with and without frailty. The reduction of contacts may have led to the direct protection of older adults in general but also to the indirect protection of older adults with frailty.
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COVID-19 , Fragilidad , Femenino , Humanos , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , COVID-19/epidemiología , SARS-CoV-2 , Fragilidad/epidemiología , Países Bajos/epidemiología , PandemiasRESUMEN
Estimating the differences in the incubation-period, serial-interval, and generation-interval distributions of SARS-CoV-2 variants is critical to understanding their transmission. However, the impact of epidemic dynamics is often neglected in estimating the timing of infection-for example, when an epidemic is growing exponentially, a cohort of infected individuals who developed symptoms at the same time are more likely to have been infected recently. Here, we reanalyze incubation-period and serial-interval data describing transmissions of the Delta and Omicron variants from the Netherlands at the end of December 2021. Previous analysis of the same dataset reported shorter mean observed incubation period (3.2 d vs. 4.4 d) and serial interval (3.5 d vs. 4.1 d) for the Omicron variant, but the number of infections caused by the Delta variant decreased during this period as the number of Omicron infections increased. When we account for growth-rate differences of two variants during the study period, we estimate similar mean incubation periods (3.8 to 4.5 d) for both variants but a shorter mean generation interval for the Omicron variant (3.0 d; 95% CI: 2.7 to 3.2 d) than for the Delta variant (3.8 d; 95% CI: 3.7 to 4.0 d). The differences in estimated generation intervals may be driven by the "network effect"-higher effective transmissibility of the Omicron variant can cause faster susceptible depletion among contact networks, which in turn prevents late transmission (therefore shortening realized generation intervals). Using up-to-date generation-interval distributions is critical to accurately estimating the reproduction advantage of the Omicron variant.
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COVID-19 , Epidemias , Humanos , SARS-CoV-2/genética , COVID-19/epidemiología , Países Bajos/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Children play a key role in the transmission of many infectious diseases. They have many of their close social encounters at home or at school. We hypothesized that most of the transmission of respiratory infections among children occur in these two settings and that transmission patterns can be predicted by a bipartite network of schools and households. AIM AND METHODS: To confirm transmission over a school-household network, SARS-CoV-2 transmission pairs in children aged 4-17 years were analyzed by study year and primary/secondary school. Cases with symptom onset between 1 March 2021 and 4 April 2021 identified by source and contact-tracing in the Netherlands were included. In this period, primary schools were open and secondary school students attended class at least once per week. Within pairs, spatial distance between the postcodes was calculated as the Euclidean distance. RESULTS: A total of 4059 transmission pairs were identified; 51.9% between primary schoolers; 19.6% between primary and secondary schoolers; 28.5% between secondary schoolers. Most (68.5%) of the transmission for children in the same study year occurred at school. In contrast, most of the transmission of children from different study years (64.3%) and most primary-secondary transmission (81.7%) occurred at home. The average spatial distance between infections was 1.2 km (median 0.4) for primary school pairs, 1.6 km (median 0) for primary-secondary school pairs and 4.1 km (median 1.2) for secondary school pairs. CONCLUSION: The results provide evidence of transmission on a bipartite school-household network. Schools play an important role in transmission within study years, and households play an important role in transmission between study years and between primary and secondary schools. Spatial distance between infections in a transmission pair reflects the smaller school catchment area of primary schools versus secondary schools. Many of these observed patterns likely hold for other respiratory pathogens.
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COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , Niño , Humanos , COVID-19/epidemiología , Prueba de COVID-19 , Composición Familiar , Instituciones AcadémicasRESUMEN
The COVID-19 pandemic was in 2020 and 2021 for a large part mitigated by reducing contacts in the general population. To monitor how these contacts changed over the course of the pandemic in the Netherlands, a longitudinal survey was conducted where participants reported on their at-risk contacts every two weeks, as part of the European CoMix survey. The survey included 1659 participants from April to August 2020 and 2514 participants from December 2020 to September 2021. We categorized the number of unique contacted persons excluding household members, reported per participant per day into six activity levels, defined as 0, 1, 2, 3-4, 5-9 and 10 or more reported contacts. After correcting for age, vaccination status, risk status for severe outcome of infection, and frequency of participation, activity levels increased over time, coinciding with relaxation of COVID-19 control measures.
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COVID-19 , Humanos , COVID-19/epidemiología , COVID-19/prevención & control , Pandemias/prevención & control , SARS-CoV-2 , Países Bajos/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
BackgroundSince the roll-out of COVID-19 vaccines in late 2020 and throughout 2021, European governments have relied on mathematical modelling to inform policy decisions about COVID-19 vaccination.AimWe present a scenario-based modelling analysis in the Netherlands during summer 2021, to inform whether to extend vaccination to adolescents (12-17-year-olds) and children (5-11-year-olds).MethodsWe developed a deterministic, age-structured susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model and compared modelled incidences of infections, hospital and intensive care admissions, and deaths per 100,000 people across vaccination scenarios, before the emergence of the Omicron variant.ResultsOur model projections showed that, on average, upon the release of all non-pharmaceutical control measures on 1 November 2021, a large COVID-19 wave may occur in winter 2021/22, followed by a smaller, second wave in spring 2022, regardless of the vaccination scenario. The model projected reductions in infections/severe disease outcomes when vaccination was extended to adolescents and further reductions when vaccination was extended to all people over 5 years-old. When examining projected disease outcomes by age group, individuals benefitting most from extending vaccination were adolescents and children themselves. We also observed reductions in disease outcomes in older age groups, particularly of parent age (30-49 years), when children and adolescents were vaccinated, suggesting some prevention of onward transmission from younger to older age groups.ConclusionsWhile our scenarios could not anticipate the emergence/consequences of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant, we illustrate how our approach can assist decision making. This could be useful when considering to provide booster doses or intervening against future infection waves.
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COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , Niño , Adolescente , Humanos , Anciano , Adulto , Persona de Mediana Edad , Preescolar , Países Bajos/epidemiología , COVID-19/epidemiología , COVID-19/prevención & control , Vacunas contra la COVID-19 , VacunaciónRESUMEN
In May 2022, monkeypox outbreaks have been reported in countries not endemic for monkeypox. We estimated the monkeypox incubation period, using reported exposure and symptom-onset times for 18 cases detected and confirmed in the Netherlands up to 31 May 2022. Mean incubation period was 9.0 [corrected] days (5th-95th percentiles: 4.2-17.3), underpinning the current recommendation to monitor or isolate/quarantine case contacts for 21 days. However, as the incubation period may differ between different transmission routes, further epidemiological investigations are needed.
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Brotes de Enfermedades , Mpox , Humanos , Periodo de Incubación de Enfermedades Infecciosas , Mpox/diagnóstico , Mpox/epidemiología , Monkeypox virus , Países Bajos/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
The SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant has a growth advantage over the Delta variant because of higher transmissibility, immune evasion or shorter serial interval. Using S gene target failure (SGTF) as indication for Omicron BA.1, we identified 908 SGTF and 1,621 non-SGTF serial intervals in the same period. Within households, the mean serial interval for SGTF cases was 0.2-0.6 days shorter than for non-SGTF cases. This suggests that the growth advantage of Omicron is partly due to a shorter serial interval.
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COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , Humanos , Países BajosRESUMEN
We estimated SARS-CoV-2 vaccine effectiveness against onward transmission by comparing secondary attack rates among household members for vaccinated and unvaccinated index cases, based on source and contact tracing data collected when the Delta variant was dominant. Effectiveness of full vaccination of the index case against transmission to unvaccinated and fully vaccinated household contacts, respectively, was 63% (95% confidence interval (CI): 46-75) and 40% (95% CI: 20-54), in addition to the direct protection of vaccination of contacts against infection.
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COVID-19 , Vacunas , Vacunas contra la COVID-19 , Composición Familiar , Humanos , Países Bajos/epidemiología , SARS-CoV-2RESUMEN
BACKGROUND: SARS-CoV-2 dynamics are driven by human behaviour. Social contact data are of utmost importance in the context of transmission models of close-contact infections. METHODS: Using online representative panels of adults reporting on their own behaviour as well as parents reporting on the behaviour of one of their children, we collect contact mixing (CoMix) behaviour in various phases of the COVID-19 pandemic in over 20 European countries. We provide these timely, repeated observations using an online platform: SOCRATES-CoMix. In addition to providing cleaned datasets to researchers, the platform allows users to extract contact matrices that can be stratified by age, type of day, intensity of the contact and gender. These observations provide insights on the relative impact of recommended or imposed social distance measures on contacts and can inform mathematical models on epidemic spread. CONCLUSION: These data provide essential information for policymakers to balance non-pharmaceutical interventions, economic activity, mental health and wellbeing, during vaccine rollout.
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COVID-19 , Pandemias , Adulto , Niño , Europa (Continente)/epidemiología , Humanos , Modelos Teóricos , SARS-CoV-2RESUMEN
This large, nationwide, population-based, seroepidemiological study provides evidence of the effectiveness of physical distancing (>1.5 m) and indoor group size reductions in reducing severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection. Additionally, young adults may play an important role in viral spread, contrary to children up until age 12 years with whom close contact is permitted. CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION: NTR8473.
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COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , Niño , Humanos , Países Bajos/epidemiología , Distanciamiento Físico , Investigación , Adulto JovenRESUMEN
BackgroundDuring the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries have implemented physical distancing measures to reduce transmission of SARS-CoV-2.AimTo measure the actual reduction of contacts when physical distancing measures are implemented.MethodsA cross-sectional survey was carried out in the Netherlands in 2016-17, in which participants reported the number and age of their contacts the previous day. The survey was repeated among a subsample of the participants in April 2020, after strict physical distancing measures were implemented, and in an extended sample in June 2020, after some measures were relaxed.ResultsThe average number of community contacts per day was reduced from 14.9 (interquartile range (IQR): 4-20) in the 2016-17 survey to 3.5 (IQR: 0-4) after strict physical distancing measures were implemented, and rebounded to 8.8 (IQR: 1-10) after some measures were relaxed. All age groups restricted their community contacts to at most 5, on average, after strict physical distancing measures were implemented. In children, the number of community contacts reverted to baseline levels after measures were eased, while individuals aged 70 years and older had less than half their baseline levels.ConclusionStrict physical distancing measures greatly reduced overall contact numbers, which likely contributed to curbing the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic in the Netherlands. However, age groups reacted differently when measures were relaxed, with children reverting to normal contact numbers and elderly individuals maintaining restricted contact numbers. These findings offer guidance for age-targeted measures in future waves of the pandemic.
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COVID-19/prevención & control , Pandemias , Distanciamiento Físico , Interacción Social , Adolescente , Adulto , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Niño , Preescolar , Estudios Transversales , Femenino , Humanos , Lactante , Recién Nacido , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Países Bajos/epidemiología , Adulto JovenRESUMEN
OBJECTIVE: To determine whether children play a role in the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 to other children and adults, and to gain insight into symptomatic and asymptomatic infections in children. DESIGN: Analysis of national COVID-19 notifications and prospective observational study in families with children. METHOD: Information about COVID-19 patients and their contacts was obtained from the registration systems used by the public health services. In an ongoing study, patients with COVID-19 were asked to participate if they have a family with children. On two occasions nose-throat swabs and blood were collected for PCR analysis and determination of antibodies against SARS-CoV-2. RESULTS: The notifications suggest that transmission finds place mainly between adults and to a lesser extent between parents and children. For the family study, data were available from 54 households with a total of 227 participants. In families of a confirmed COVID-19 patient, children between 1 and 11 years were less often positive in PCR and serology than older children and adults. CONCLUSION: The study gives no indications that children play an important role in the transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Children can indeed become infected, but transmission mainly takes place between adult peers and from adult family members to children. Transmission among children or from children to adults, as is known in influenza, appears to be less common. Ongoing studies should provide important information for further decision-making on control measures, such as closure of schools.
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Betacoronavirus , Infecciones por Coronavirus/transmisión , Transmisión de Enfermedad Infecciosa/estadística & datos numéricos , Pandemias , Neumonía Viral/transmisión , Medición de Riesgo/métodos , Adulto , COVID-19 , Niño , Infecciones por Coronavirus/epidemiología , Femenino , Humanos , Países Bajos/epidemiología , Neumonía Viral/epidemiología , Estudios Prospectivos , SARS-CoV-2RESUMEN
A novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) is causing an outbreak of viral pneumonia that started in Wuhan, China. Using the travel history and symptom onset of 88 confirmed cases that were detected outside Wuhan in the early outbreak phase, we estimate the mean incubation period to be 6.4 days (95% credible interval: 5.6-7.7), ranging from 2.1 to 11.1 days (2.5th to 97.5th percentile). These values should help inform 2019-nCoV case definitions and appropriate quarantine durations.
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Betacoronavirus/patogenicidad , Infecciones por Coronavirus , Periodo de Incubación de Enfermedades Infecciosas , Neumonía Viral , Viaje , COVID-19 , China/epidemiología , Infecciones por Coronavirus/diagnóstico , Infecciones por Coronavirus/epidemiología , Infecciones por Coronavirus/transmisión , Humanos , Neumonía Viral/diagnóstico , Neumonía Viral/epidemiología , Neumonía Viral/transmisión , SARS-CoV-2 , Síndrome Respiratorio Agudo Grave/diagnóstico , Síndrome Respiratorio Agudo Grave/transmisión , Latencia del VirusRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: The present study aims to assess the cost-effectiveness of an influenza vaccination program for children in the Netherlands. This requires an evaluation of the long-term impact of such a program on the burden of influenza across all age groups, using a transmission model that accounts for the seasonal variability in vaccine effectiveness and the shorter duration of protection following vaccination as compared to natural infection. METHODS: We performed a cost-effectiveness analysis based on a stochastic dynamic transmission model that has been calibrated to reported GP visits with influenza-like illness in the Netherlands over 11 seasons (2003/2004 to 2014/2015). We analyzed the costs and effects of extending the current program with vaccination of children aged 2-16 years at 50% coverage over 20 consecutive seasons. We measured the effects in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and we adopted a societal perspective. RESULTS: The childhood vaccination program is estimated to have an average incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of 3944 per QALY gained and is cost-effective in the general population (across 1000 simulations; conventional Dutch threshold of 20,000 per QALY gained). The childhood vaccination program is not estimated to be cost-effective for the target-group itself with an average ICER of 57,054 per QALY gained. Uncertainty analyses reveal that these ICERs hide a wide range of outcomes. Even though introduction of a childhood vaccination program decreases the number of infections, it tends to lead to larger epidemics: in 23.3% of 1000 simulations, the childhood vaccination program results in an increase in seasons with a symptomatic attack rate larger than 5%, which is expected to cause serious strain on the health care system. In 6.4% of 1000 simulations, the childhood vaccination program leads to a net loss of QALYs. These findings are robust across different targeted age groups and vaccination coverages. CONCLUSIONS: Modeling indicates that childhood influenza vaccination is cost-effective in the Netherlands. However, childhood influenza vaccination is not cost-effective when only outcomes for the children themselves are considered. In approximately a quarter of the simulations, the introduction of a childhood vaccination program increases the frequency of seasons with a symptomatic attack rate larger than 5%. The possibility of an overall health loss cannot be excluded.
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Programas de Inmunización/economía , Vacunas contra la Influenza/efectos adversos , Vacunas contra la Influenza/economía , Gripe Humana/prevención & control , Adolescente , Niño , Preescolar , Análisis Costo-Beneficio , Femenino , Humanos , Vacunas contra la Influenza/administración & dosificación , Masculino , Países Bajos , Años de Vida Ajustados por Calidad de Vida , Factores de TiempoRESUMEN
IntroductionWith growing amounts of data available, identification of clusters of persons linked to each other by transmission of an infectious disease increasingly relies on automated algorithms. We propose cluster finding to be a two-step process: first, possible transmission clusters are identified using a cluster algorithm, second, the plausibility that the identified clusters represent genuine transmission clusters is evaluated.AimTo introduce visual tools to assess automatically identified clusters.MethodsWe developed tools to visualise: (i) clusters found in dimensions of time, geographical location and genetic data; (ii) nested sub-clusters within identified clusters; (iii) intra-cluster pairwise dissimilarities per dimension; (iv) intra-cluster correlation between dimensions. We applied our tools to notified mumps cases in the Netherlands with available disease onset date (January 2009 - June 2016), geographical information (location of residence), and pathogen sequence data (n = 112). We compared identified clusters to clusters reported by the Netherlands Early Warning Committee (NEWC).ResultsWe identified five mumps clusters. Three clusters were considered plausible. One was questionable because, in phylogenetic analysis, genetic sequences related to it segregated in two groups. One was implausible with no smaller nested clusters, high intra-cluster dissimilarities on all dimensions, and low intra-cluster correlation between dimensions. The NEWC reports concurred with our findings: the plausible/questionable clusters corresponded to reported outbreaks; the implausible cluster did not.ConclusionOur tools for assessing automatically identified clusters allow outbreak investigators to rapidly spot plausible transmission clusters for mumps and other human-to-human transmissible diseases. This fast information processing potentially reduces workload.
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Notificación de Enfermedades/estadística & datos numéricos , Brotes de Enfermedades , Epidemiología Molecular/métodos , Virus de la Parotiditis/genética , Paperas/virología , ARN Viral/genética , Adolescente , Adulto , Algoritmos , Niño , Preescolar , Análisis por Conglomerados , Humanos , Persona de Mediana Edad , Datos de Secuencia Molecular , Paperas/epidemiología , Virus de la Parotiditis/aislamiento & purificación , Países Bajos/epidemiología , Filogenia , Análisis de Secuencia de ADN , Adulto JovenRESUMEN
Brucellosis is a zoonotic disease with terrestrial or marine wildlife animals as potential reservoirs for the disease in livestock and human populations. The primary aim of this study was to assess the presence of Brucella pinnipedialis in marine mammals living along the Dutch coast and to observe a possible correlation between the presence of B. pinnipedialis and accompanying pathology found in infected animals. The overall prevalence of Brucella spp. antibodies in sera from healthy wild grey seals ( Halichoerus grypus; n=11) and harbor seals ( Phoca vitulina; n=40), collected between 2007 and 2013 ranged from 25% to 43%. Additionally, tissue samples of harbor seals collected along the Dutch shores between 2009 and 2012, were tested for the presence of Brucella spp. In total, 77% (30/39) seals were found to be positive for Brucella by IS 711 real-time PCR in one or more tissue samples, including pulmonary nematodes. Viable Brucella was cultured from 40% (12/30) real-time PCR-positive seals, and was isolated from liver, lung, pulmonary lymph node, pulmonary nematode, or spleen, but not from any PCR-negative seals. Tissue samples from lung and pulmonary lymph nodes were the main source of viable Brucella bacteria. All isolates were typed as B. pinnipedialis by multiple-locus variable number of tandem repeats analysis-16 clustering and matrix-assisted laser desorption ionization-time of flight mass spectrometry, and of sequence type ST25 by multilocus sequence typing analysis. No correlation was observed between Brucella infection and pathology. This report displays the isolation and identification of B. pinnipedialis in marine mammals in the Dutch part of the Atlantic Ocean.