HEART Score and Stress Test Emergency Department Bayesian Decision Scheme: Results from the Acute Care Diagnostic Collaboration.

BACKGROUND: Accurate identification of patients at risk of major adverse cardiac events (MACE) places a substantial burden on emergency physicians (EPs). Bayesian nomogram for risk stratification in low- to intermediate-risk cardiovascular patients has not been investigated previously. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to develop a comparative diagnostic model using Bayesian statistics for exercise treadmill test (ETT) and stress echocardiogram (ECHO) to calculate post-test diagnostic risk of MACE using HEART (history, electrocardiogram, age, risk factors, and troponin) risk score as predictor of pretest probability. METHODS: Stratification was made by applying HEART scores for the prediction of MACE. Likelihood ratios (LR) were calculated using pooled sensitivity and specificity of ETT and ECHO from the American College of Cardiology Foundation/American Heart Association systematic review. Post-test probabilities were obtained after inserting HEART score and LR into Bayesian nomogram. Analysis of variance was used to assess statistical association. RESULTS: Positive LR (LR+) for ETT was 4.56 and negative LR (LR-) was 0.27; for ECHO, LR+ 5.65 and LR- 0.15. Bayesian statistical modeling post-test probabilities for LR+ and low HEART risk yielded a post-test probability for ETT of 7.75% and 9.09% for ECHO; intermediate risk gave 47.62% and 52.63%, respectively. For LR-, low HEART risk post-test probability for ETT was 0.46% and for ECHO 0.26%; intermediate risk probabilities were 4.48% and 2.49%, respectively. LR- was statistically significant in ruling out MACE with ECHO (p < 0.001), but no significant differences were seen for LR+ (p = 0.64). CONCLUSIONS: This Bayesian analysis demonstrated slight superiority of stress ECHO over ETT in low- and intermediate-risk patients in ruling out MACE.

Factors influencing the access of severely injured children and elderly patients involved in motor vehicle collisions to trauma center care.

This study was undertaken to determine factors that influence the access to trauma center care of pediatric and geriatric patients injured in motor vehicle collisions (MVC). Hospital discharge records for 1997 were obtained from the Pennsylvania Health Care Cost Containment Council and were analyzed. Of cases with an Injury Severity Score of > 15, 52.6% of elderly cases and 48.6% of pediatric cases were transported to and received their care in non-trauma center hospitals. These very high "mis-triage" rates could not be explained by differences in injury severity, body region or population density. In order to assess potential out-of-hospital factors, a file containing matched records from Emergency Medical Services (EMS) calls and hospital discharges from MVC cases across Pennsylvania for the year 1996 was constructed and analyzed. There were no significant vital signs differences between trauma center and non-trauma center cases, with the single exception of the Glasgow Coma Scale score, for both the pediatric and geriatric age groups. A reevaluation of out-of-hospital trauma triage is needed.

Trauma triage criteria system compliance for victims of motor vehicle crashes.

The objective of this study was to determine the proportion of EMS (Emergency Medical Services) Motor Vehicle Collision cases within a large state meeting Trauma Triage Criteria (TTC) who are ultimately cared for in trauma centers (TC). This cross-sectional observational study utilized EMS records linked with hospital discharge records for the year 1997. Using ICDMAP-90 AIS and ISS scores were computed. ICD-9-CM and E-codes were used to define acute trauma cases resulting from motor vehicle collisions. This population-based system evaluation demonstrated effective TTC implementation in urban areas. However, in rural areas, many severely injured patients were transported to non-trauma centers.