Early-career general practitioners' antibiotic prescribing for acute infections: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Antimicrobial resistance is a worldwide threat, exacerbated by inappropriate prescribing. Most antibiotic prescribing occurs in primary care. Early-career GPs are important for the future of antibiotic prescribing and curbing antimicrobial resistance. OBJECTIVES: To determine antibiotic prescribing patterns by early-career GPs for common acute infections. METHODS: A systematic literature search was conducted using PubMed, Embase and Scopus. Two authors independently screened abstracts and full texts for inclusion. Primary outcomes were antibiotic prescribing rates for common acute infections by GPs with experience of 10 years or less. Secondary outcomes were any associations between working experience and antibiotic prescribing. RESULTS: Of 1483 records retrieved, we identified 41 relevant studies. Early-career GPs were less likely to prescribe antibiotics compared with their more experienced colleagues (OR range 0.23-0.67). Their antibiotic prescribing rates for 'any respiratory condition' ranged from 14.6% to 52%, and for upper respiratory tract infections from 13.5% to 33%. Prescribing for acute bronchitis varied by country, from 15.9% in Sweden to 26% in the USA and 63%-73% in Australia. Condition-specific data for all other included acute infections, such as sinusitis and acute otitis media, were limited to the Australian context. CONCLUSIONS: Early-career GPs prescribe fewer antibiotics than later-career GPs. However, there are still significant improvements to be made for common acute conditions, as their prescribing is higher than recommended benchmarks. Addressing antimicrobial resistance requires an ongoing worldwide effort and early-career GPs should be the target for long-term change.

Diagnosis and management of acute infections during telehealth consultations in Australian general practice: a qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: The use of telehealth has increased dramatically since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. Little is known about how GPs manage acute infections during telehealth, and the potential impact on antimicrobial stewardship. AIM: To explore the experiences and perceptions of GP trainees' and supervisors' use of telehealth, and how it influences their management of acute infections. DESIGN & SETTING: Australian GP registrars (trainees) and supervisors were recruited via email through their training organisations. Semi-structured interviews with 18 participants were conducted between July and August 2022. METHOD: Interviews were transcribed verbatim and analysed using a reflexive thematic approach. RESULTS: We identified six overall themes. 1. Participants experienced impaired diagnostic capacity during telehealth consultations. 2. Attempts to improve diagnostic acuity included various methods, such as having patients self-examine. 3. The management of clinical uncertainty frequently entailed referring patients for in-person assessment, overinvestigating, or overtreating. 4. Antibiotic prescribing decisions during telehealth were informed by less information than were in-person consults, with varying impact. 5. Participants believed that other GPs improperly prescribed antibiotics during telehealth. 6. Supervisors believed that registrars hadn't developed the knowledge or skills to determine when conditions could be managed appropriately via telehealth. CONCLUSION: Telehealth has potential for reducing transmission of acute infections and increasing access to healthcare. However, the implications of GPs, especially less experienced GPs, making diagnoses with less certainty, and consequently compromising antimicrobial stewardship, are a concern. Patient self-assessment tools may improve outcomes of telehealth consultations for acute infections.

Temporal patterns of antibiotic prescribing for sore throat, otitis media, and sinusitis: a longitudinal study of general practitioner registrars.

BACKGROUND: Antibiotics provide minimal benefit for sore throat, otitis media, and sinusitis. Antibiotic stewardship, with reduced prescribing, is required to address antibiotic resistance. As most antibiotic prescribing occurs in general practice and prescribing habits develop early, general practitioner (GP) trainees (registrars) are important for effective antibiotic stewardship. OBJECTIVES: To establish temporal trends in Australian registrars' antibiotic prescribing for acute sore throat, acute otitis media, and acute sinusitis. DESIGN: A longitudinal analysis of data from the Registrar Clinical Encounters in Training (ReCEnT) study from 2010 to 2019. PARTICIPANTS: ReCEnT is an ongoing cohort study of registrars' in-consultation experiences and clinical behaviours. Pre-2016, 5 of 17 Australian training regions participated. From 2016, 3 of 9 regions (42% of Australian registrars) participate. MAIN MEASURES: The outcome was prescription of an antibiotic for a new acute problem/diagnosis of sore throat, otitis media, or sinusitis. The study factor was year (2010-2019). KEY RESULTS: Antibiotics were prescribed in 66% of sore throat diagnoses, 81% of otitis media, and in 72% of sinusitis. Prescribing frequencies decreased between 2010 and 2019 by 16% for sore throat (from 76% to 60%) by 11% for otitis media (from 88% to 77%) and by 18% for sinusitis (from 84% to 66%). In multivariable analyses, "Year" was associated with reduced prescribing for sore throat (OR 0.89; 95%CI 0.86-0.92; p < 0.001), otitis media (OR 0.90; 95%CI 0.86-0.94; p < 0.001), and sinusitis (OR 0.90; 95%CI 0.86, 0.94; p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Registrars' prescribing rates for sore throat, otitis media, and sinusitis significantly decreased during the period 2010-2019. However, educational (and other) interventions to further reduce prescribing are warranted.

Exploring general practitioners' perception of the value of natural history information and their awareness and use of guidelines' resources to support antibiotic prescribing for self-limiting infections: a qualitative study in Australian general practice.

BACKGROUND: The newest version of the Therapeutic Guidelines' antibiotic chapter introduced patient- and clinician-facing resources to support decision-making about antibiotic use for self-limiting infections. It is unclear whether general practitioners (GPs) are aware of and use these resources, including the natural history information they contain. We explored GPs' perceptions of the value and their use of natural history information, and their use of the Therapeutic Guidelines' resources (summary table, discussion boxes, decision aids) to support antibiotic decision-making. METHODS: Semi-structured interviews with 21 Australian GPs were conducted. Interviews were recorded, transcribed and thematically analysed by two independent researchers. RESULTS: Four themes emerged: (1) GPs perceive natural history information as valuable in consultations for self-limiting conditions and use it for a range of purposes, but desire specific information for infectious and non-infectious conditions; (2) GPs' reasons for using patient-facing resources were manifold, including managing patients' expectations for antibiotics, legitimising the decision not to provide antibiotics and as a prescription substitute; (3) the guidelines are a useful and important educational resource, but typically not consulted at the time of deciding whether to prescribe antibiotics; and (4) experience and attitude towards shared decision-making and looking up information during consultations influenced whether GPs involved patients in decision-making and used a decision aid. CONCLUSIONS: GPs perceived natural history information to be valuable in discussions about antibiotic use for self-limiting conditions. Patient and clinician resources were generally perceived as useful, although reasons for use varied, and a few barriers to use were reported.

Antibiotic prescribing for upper respiratory tract infections and acute bronchitis: a longitudinal analysis of general practitioner trainees.

BACKGROUND: Most antibiotic prescribing for upper respiratory tract infections (URTIs) and acute bronchitis is inappropriate. Substantive and sustained reductions in prescribing are needed to reduce antibiotic resistance. Prescribing habits develop early in clinicians' careers. Hence, general practice (GP) trainees are an important group to target. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to establish temporal trends in antibiotic prescribing for URTIs and acute bronchitis/bronchiolitis by Australian GP trainees (registrars). METHODS: A longitudinal analysis, 2010-2019, of the Registrars Clinical Encounters in Training (ReCEnT) dataset. In ReCEnT, registrars record clinical and educational content of 60 consecutive consultations, on 3 occasions, 6 monthly. Analyses were of new diagnoses of URTI and acute bronchitis/bronchiolitis, with the outcome variable a systemic antibiotic being prescribed. The independent variable of interest was year of prescribing (modelled as a continuous variable). RESULTS: 28,372 diagnoses of URTI and 5,289 diagnoses of acute bronchitis/bronchiolitis were recorded by 2,839 registrars. Antibiotic prescribing for URTI decreased from 24% in 2010 to 12% in 2019. Prescribing for acute bronchitis/bronchiolitis decreased from 84% to 72%. "Year" was significantly, negatively associated with antibiotic prescribing for both URTI (odds ratio [OR] 0.90; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.88-0.93) and acute bronchitis/bronchiolitis (OR 0.92; 95% CI: 0.88-0.96) on multivariable analysis, with estimates representing the mean annual change. CONCLUSIONS: GP registrars' prescribing for URTI and acute bronchitis/bronchiolitis declined over the 10-year period. Prescribing for acute bronchitis/bronchiolitis, however, remains higher than recommended benchmarks. Continued education and programme-level antibiotic stewardship interventions are required to further reduce registrars' antibiotic prescribing for acute bronchitis/bronchiolitis to appropriate levels.

It is well known that antibiotic consumption can cause antibiotic resistance. Most antibiotic prescribing happens in general practice. The common cold (upper respiratory tract infections) and cough (acute bronchitis) are 2 conditions that antibiotics are often prescribed for, but are not needed. There is considerable evidence that antibiotics do not help these conditions improve, and guidelines in Australia state that they are not a treatment option. General practitioners at the beginning of their career form prescribing habits early on. In light of the problem of antibiotic resistance, it is important to know how new doctors prescribe antibiotics, as they may do this for the rest of their career. We investigated their prescribing for the common cold and cough, from 2010 to 2019. We found that overall their prescribing has been declining over the last 10 years, but prescribing for cough is still too high. There needs to be more interventions in this group of doctors to reduce prescribing for this condition.

Preserving antibiotics for the future: Where Australian general practice sits on the global spectrum.

BACKGROUND: Antibiotics have revolutionised modern medicine; however, since their discovery a century ago, their effectiveness against common infections is waning. Antimicrobial resistance is one of the most important challenges of our time. Reversing the trend of increasing resistance is vital to ensure procedures such as surgery, neonatal care and organ transplants remain safe. Inappropriate use of antibiotics is the most important driver of resistance. As the vast majority of antibiotics are prescribed by general practitioners, primary care has an important part to play in preserving antibiotics for the future. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this article is to describe how antibiotic use in Australia compares globally and what can be learnt from countries with successful antimicrobial stewardship. DISCUSSION: Australia is making progress, with unnecessary use of antibiotics declining, but there is still a long way to go. The National Antimicrobial Resistance Strategy is Australia's commitment to the health of future generations. General practice is integral to its success.

Antibiotic prescribing for acute infections in synchronous telehealth consultations: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Antibiotic overprescribing is a major concern that contributes to the problem of antibiotic resistance. AIM: To assess the effect on antibiotic prescribing in primary care of telehealth (TH) consultations compared with face-to-face (F2F). DESIGN & SETTING: Systematic review and meta-analysis of adult or paediatric patients with a history of a community-acquired acute infection (respiratory, urinary, or skin and soft tissue). Studies were included that compared synchronous TH consultations (phone or video-based) to F2F consultations in primary care. METHOD: PubMed, Embase, Cochrane CENTRAL (inception-2021), clinical trial registries and citing-cited references of included studies were searched. Two review authors independently screened the studies and extracted the data. RESULTS: Thirteen studies were identified. The one small randomised controlled trial (RCT) found a non-significant 25% relative increase in antibiotic prescribing in the TH group. The remaining 10 were observational studies but did not control well for confounding and, therefore, were at high risk of bias. When pooled by specific infections, there was no consistent pattern. The six studies of sinusitis - including one before-after study - showed significantly less prescribing for acute rhinosinusitis in TH consultations, whereas the two studies of acute otitis media showed a significant increase. Pharyngitis, conjunctivitis, and urinary tract infections showed non-significant higher prescribing in the TH group. Bronchitis showed no change in prescribing. CONCLUSION: The impact of TH on prescribing appears to vary between conditions, with more increases than reductions. There is insufficient evidence to draw strong conclusions, however, and higher quality research is urgently needed.

Explainable models for forecasting the emergence of political instability.

Building on previous research on the use of macroeconomic factors for conflict prediction and using data on political instability provided by the Political Instability Task Force, this article proposes two minimal forecasting models of political instability optimised to have the greatest possible predictive power for one-year and two-year event horizons, while still making predictions that are fully explainable. Both models employ logistic regression and use just three predictors: polity code (a measure of government type), infant mortality, and years of stability (i.e., years since the last instability event). These models make predictions for 176 countries on a country-year basis and achieve AUPRC's of 0.108 and 0.115 for the one-year and two-year models respectively. They use public data with ongoing availability so are readily reproducible. They use Monte Carlo simulations to construct confidence intervals for their predictions and are validated by testing their predictions for a set of reference years separate from the set of reference years used to train them. This validation shows that the models are not overfitted but suggests that some of the previous models in the literature may have been. The models developed in this article are able to explain their predictions by showing, for a given prediction, which predictors were the most influential and by using counterfactuals to show how the predictions would have been altered had these predictors taken different values. These models are compared to models created by lasso regression and it is shown that they have at least as good predictive power but that their predictions can be more readily explained. Because policy makers are more likely to be influenced by models whose predictions can explained, the more interpretable a model is the more likely it is to influence policy.