Characterisation of palatal dysfunction after laryngoplasty.

REASONS FOR PERFORMING STUDY: Dorsal displacement of the soft palate (DDSP) in the horse has been previously described as intermittent, typically occurring at fast exercise; or persistent, seen at rest. Dorsal displacement of the soft palate has recently been reported following laryngoplasty (LP) and can be associated with continued poor performance and respiratory noise. OBJECTIVES: The current study aimed to characterise the DDSP diagnosed post LP. STUDY DESIGN: Cross-sectional study. METHODS: Owners/trainers of horses undergoing LP at one institution over 6 years were contacted to determine the horse's progress and willingness for re-examination. The horses were examined at the rest, walk, trot and canter with an overground exercising endoscope. A GPS-equipped watch was carried to obtain maximal exercising speeds. Videos of horses with DDSP were reviewed to determine frequency and duration of DDSP and swallowing events at the various gaits. RESULTS: Exercising endoscopy was performed in 41 of the 89 horses that had undergone LP. Nineteen of the 41 horses were diagnosed with DDSP at exercise, of which 7/41 also had DDSP at rest. No difference was detected in the percentage of total time spent displaced at each gait (P = 0.67), or in the frequency of new DDSP events per minute between each gait (P = 0.10), or in the frequency of swallowing events per minute between each gait (P = 0.52). The majority of horses displaced at various times throughout each gait. Dorsal displacement of the soft palate was most commonly solely induced spontaneously and always corrected with a swallow. The maximum speed achieved was 8.3 m/s. CONCLUSIONS: Dorsal displacement of the soft palate was common following LP and it appears to be induced at slower gaits than DDSP that has previously been described. It also occurred at various times throughout each gait and did not always occur persistently at rest. POTENTIAL RELEVANCE: These findings suggest horses undergoing LP may be more prone to DDSP and further investigations into the aetiology of post LP palatal dysfunction are warranted.

Long-term exercising video-endoscopic examination of the upper airway following laryngoplasty surgery: a prospective cross-sectional study of 41 horses.

REASONS FOR PERFORMING STUDY: To investigate upper respiratory tract function in horses, previously undergoing laryngoplasty (LP), using exercising video-endoscopy. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate arytenoid abduction and stability, diagnose any concurrent upper airway problems, and correlate these with the owners' perception of success. METHODS: Horses undergoing LP during a 6-year period at one hospital were initially included. Those available for re-examination were exercised for a duration and intensity considered maximal for their discipline using an over-ground endoscope. Resting and exercising laryngeal and pharyngeal videos were analysed blindly. Multivariable analysis was used to test associations between resting and exercising endoscopic variables, and also between endoscopic variables and owner questionnaire findings. RESULTS: Forty-one horses were included and 78% had a form of upper airway collapse at exercise, with 41% having complex forms, despite 93% of owners reporting the surgery to have been beneficial. Horses with poor abduction (grades 4 or 5/5) were 6 times more likely to make respiratory noise compared with those with good (grades 2 or 3/5) abduction (P = 0.020; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.3-27.0), and those not having a ventriculectomy were 4.9 times more likely to produce respiratory noise post operatively (P = 0.048; 95% CI 1.0-23.9). Palatal dysfunction was observed in 24% of horses at rest, and 56% at exercise, with the diagnosis at rest and exercise significantly associated (P = 0.001). Increasing severity of pharyngeal lymphoid hyperplasia (prevalence 61%) was significantly associated with increasing arytenoid abduction (P = 0.01). Thirty-four per cent of horses had aryepiglottic fold collapse and 22% of horses had vocal fold collapse. CONCLUSIONS: Many horses that had previously had LP were diagnosed with upper airway abnormalities, despite the procedure being considered as beneficial by most owners. POTENTIAL RELEVANCE: When investigating cases of ongoing respiratory noise or poor performance following LP, exercising endoscopy must be considered. Continued respiratory noise may be associated with poor arytenoid abduction and not performing concurrent ventriculectomy.

Pulpar temperature changes during mechanical reduction of equine cheek teeth: comparison of different motorised dental instruments, duration of treatments and use of water cooling.

REASONS FOR PERFORMING STUDY: Although equine motorised dental instruments are widely used, there is limited information on their thermal effect on teeth. The recently described variation in subocclusal secondary dentine depth overlying individual pulp horns may affect heat transmission to the underlying pulps. OBJECTIVES: This study compared the effect of 3 different equine motorised dental instruments on the pulpar temperature of equine cheek teeth with and without the use of water cooling. It also evaluated the effect of subocclusal secondary dentine thickness on pulpar temperature changes. METHODS: A thermocouple probe was inserted into the pulp horns of 188 transversely sectioned maxillary cheek teeth with its tip lying subocclusally. Pulpar temperature changes were recorded during and following the continuous use of 3 different equine motorised dental instruments (A, B and C) for sequential time periods, with and without the use of water cooling. RESULTS: Using motorised dental instrument B compared with either A or C increased the likelihood that the critical temperature was reached in pulps by 8.6 times. Compared with rasping for 30 s, rasping for 45, 60 and 90 s increased the likelihood that the critical temperature would be reached in pulps by 7.3, 8.9 and 24.7 times, respectively. Thicker subocclusal secondary dentine (odds ratio [OR] = 0.75/mm) and water cooling (OR = 0.14) were both protective against the likelihood of the pulp reaching the critical temperature. CONCLUSIONS: Prolonged rasping with motorised dental instruments increased the likelihood that a pulp would be heated above the critical temperature. Increased dentinal thickness and water cooling had protective roles in reducing pulpar heating. POTENTIAL RELEVANCE: Motorised dental instruments have the potential to seriously damage equine pulp if used inappropriately. Higher speed motorised dental instruments should be used for less time and teeth should be water cooled during or immediately after instrument use to reduce the risk of thermal pulpar damage.

Radiographic identification of the equine ventral conchal bulla.

Involvement of the ventral conchal sinus (VCS) is an important diagnostic and prognostic feature in cases of the equine sinus disease. The authors aimed to ascertain if the caudo-dorsal extension of the VCS, the ventral conchal bulla (VCB) is identifiable on plain radiographs of cadaver skulls without sinus disease. Bilateral frontonasal sinus flaps were made in 10 equine cadaver skulls. Plain lateral, lateral oblique and dorso-ventral radiographs were then obtained followed by the same views taken with stainless steel wire outlining the caudal border of the VCB. Plain radiographs were randomised and blindly evaluated by two observers who marked where they believed the VCB to be positioned. This was then correlated with the true position of the VCB using radiographs with wires in place. The ease of identification of the VCB was classified as 'easy' or 'difficult'. The VCB was correctly identified in 70 per cent of lateral radiographs, but only 45 per cent of lateral oblique radiographs and 17 per cent of dorso-ventral radiographs. If a clinician was confident that he or she could identify the VCB, they were usually correct. Conversely if the clinician judged VCB identification as 'difficult', they usually identified it incorrectly. In the authors' clinical experience, the VCB of horses with sinusitis involving this compartment is more radiologically evident than in clinically normal horses. Knowledge of the normal radiographic anatomy of this structure should aid clinicians in identifying horses with sinusitis affecting the VCS.

Incorporating model quality information in climate change detection and attribution studies.

In a recent multimodel detection and attribution (D&A) study using the pooled results from 22 different climate models, the simulated "fingerprint" pattern of anthropogenically caused changes in water vapor was identifiable with high statistical confidence in satellite data. Each model received equal weight in the D&A analysis, despite large differences in the skill with which they simulate key aspects of observed climate. Here, we examine whether water vapor D&A results are sensitive to model quality. The "top 10" and "bottom 10" models are selected with three different sets of skill measures and two different ranking approaches. The entire D&A analysis is then repeated with each of these different sets of more or less skillful models. Our performance metrics include the ability to simulate the mean state, the annual cycle, and the variability associated with El Niño. We find that estimates of an anthropogenic water vapor fingerprint are insensitive to current model uncertainties, and are governed by basic physical processes that are well-represented in climate models. Because the fingerprint is both robust to current model uncertainties and dissimilar to the dominant noise patterns, our ability to identify an anthropogenic influence on observed multidecadal changes in water vapor is not affected by "screening" based on model quality.

Identification of human-induced changes in atmospheric moisture content.

Data from the satellite-based Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) show that the total atmospheric moisture content over oceans has increased by 0.41 kg/m(2) per decade since 1988. Results from current climate models indicate that water vapor increases of this magnitude cannot be explained by climate noise alone. In a formal detection and attribution analysis using the pooled results from 22 different climate models, the simulated "fingerprint" pattern of anthropogenically caused changes in water vapor is identifiable with high statistical confidence in the SSM/I data. Experiments in which forcing factors are varied individually suggest that this fingerprint "match" is primarily due to human-caused increases in greenhouse gases and not to solar forcing or recovery from the eruption of Mount Pinatubo. Our findings provide preliminary evidence of an emerging anthropogenic signal in the moisture content of earth's atmosphere.

Simulated and observed variability in ocean temperature and heat content.

Observations show both a pronounced increase in ocean heat content (OHC) over the second half of the 20th century and substantial OHC variability on interannual-to-decadal time scales. Although climate models are able to simulate overall changes in OHC, they are generally thought to underestimate the amplitude of OHC variability. Using simulations of 20th century climate performed with 13 numerical models, we demonstrate that the apparent discrepancy between modeled and observed variability is largely explained by accounting for changes in observational coverage and instrumentation and by including the effects of volcanic eruptions. Our work does not support the recent claim that the 0- to 700-m layer of the global ocean experienced a substantial OHC decrease over the 2003 to 2005 time period. We show that the 2003-2005 cooling is largely an artifact of a systematic change in the observing system, with the deployment of Argo floats reducing a warm bias in the original observing system.

Forced and unforced ocean temperature changes in Atlantic and Pacific tropical cyclogenesis regions.

Previous research has identified links between changes in sea surface temperature (SST) and hurricane intensity. We use climate models to study the possible causes of SST changes in Atlantic and Pacific tropical cyclogenesis regions. The observed SST increases in these regions range from 0.32 degrees C to 0.67 degrees C over the 20th century. The 22 climate models examined here suggest that century-timescale SST changes of this magnitude cannot be explained solely by unforced variability of the climate system. We employ model simulations of natural internal variability to make probabilistic estimates of the contribution of external forcing to observed SST changes. For the period 1906-2005, we find an 84% chance that external forcing explains at least 67% of observed SST increases in the two tropical cyclogenesis regions. Model "20th-century" simulations, with external forcing by combined anthropogenic and natural factors, are generally capable of replicating observed SST increases. In experiments in which forcing factors are varied individually rather than jointly, human-caused changes in greenhouse gases are the main driver of the 20th-century SST increases in both tropical cyclogenesis regions.

Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions.

All currently available climate models predict a near-surface warming trend under the influence of rising levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. In addition to the direct effects on climate--for example, on the frequency of heatwaves--this increase in surface temperatures has important consequences for the hydrological cycle, particularly in regions where water supply is currently dominated by melting snow or ice. In a warmer world, less winter precipitation falls as snow and the melting of winter snow occurs earlier in spring. Even without any changes in precipitation intensity, both of these effects lead to a shift in peak river runoff to winter and early spring, away from summer and autumn when demand is highest. Where storage capacities are not sufficient, much of the winter runoff will immediately be lost to the oceans. With more than one-sixth of the Earth's population relying on glaciers and seasonal snow packs for their water supply, the consequences of these hydrological changes for future water availability--predicted with high confidence and already diagnosed in some regions--are likely to be severe.

Detection of anthropogenic climate change in the world's oceans.

Large-scale increases in the heat content of the world's oceans have been observed to occur over the last 45 years. The horizontal and temporal character of these changes has been closely replicated by the state-of-the-art Parallel Climate Model (PCM) forced by observed and estimated anthropogenic gases. Application of optimal detection methodology shows that the model-produced signals are indistinguishable from the observations at the 0.05 confidence level. Further, the chances of either the anthropogenic or observed signals being produced by the PCM as a result of natural, internal forcing alone are less than 5%. This suggests that the observed ocean heat-content changes are consistent with those expected from anthropogenic forcing, which broadens the basis for claims that an anthropogenic signal has been detected in the global climate system. Additionally, the requirement that modeled ocean heat uptakes match observations puts a strong, new constraint on anthropogenically forced climate models. It is unknown if the current generation of climate models, other than the PCM, meet this constraint.

Causes of Decadal Climate Variability over the North Pacific and North America.

The cause of decadal climate variability over the North Pacific Ocean and North America is investigated by the analysis of data from a multidecadal integration with a state-of-the-art coupled ocean-atmosphere model and observations. About one-third of the low-frequency climate variability in the region of interest can be attributed to a cycle involving unstable air-sea interactions between the subtropical gyre circulation in the North Pacific and the Aleutian low-pressure system. The existence of this cycle provides a basis for long-range climate forecasting over the western United States at decadal time scales.

A two-tiered approach to long-range climate forecasting.

Long-range global climate forecasts were made by use of a model for predicting a tropical Pacific sea-surface temperature (SST) in tandem with an atmospheric general circulation model. The SST is predicted first at long lead times into the future. These ocean forecasts are then used to force the atmospheric model and so produce climate forecasts at lead times of the SST forecasts. Prediction of seven large climatic events of the 1970s to 1990s by this technique are in good agreement with observations over many regions of the globe.

Remote sensing of ocean currents.

A method of remotely measuring near-surface ocean currents with a synthetic aperture radar (SAR) is described. The apparatus consists of a single SAR transmitter and two receiving antennas. The phase difference between SAR image scenes obtained from the antennas forms an interferogram that is directly proportional to the surface current. The first field test of this technique against conventional measurements gives estimates of mean currents accurate to order 20 percent, that is, root-mean-square errors of 5 to 10 centimeters per second in mean flows of 27 to 56 centimeters per second. If the full potential of the method could be realized with spacecraft, then it might be possible to routinely monitor the surface currents of the world's oceans.

The effect of eurasian snow cover on global climate.

Numerical simulations with a global atmospheric circulation model suggest that largescale variations in the amount of snowfall over Eurasia in the springtime are linked to the subsequent strength of the Asian summer monsoon. Large-scale changes in Eurasian snow cover are coupled to larger scale changes in the global climate system. There is a large, strong teleconnection to the atmospheric field over North America. The model results also show snow cover effects to subsequently alter other climatic fields known to be intimately associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. Thus the model results seem to challenge the current dogma that the ENSO phenomenon is solely the result of close coupling between the atmosphere and ocean by suggesting that processes over continental land masses may also have to be considered.

Sea Surface Temperature, Surface Wind Divergence, and Convection over Tropical Oceans.

Large-scale convection over the warm tropical oceans provides an important portion of the driving energy for the general circulation of the atmosphere. Analysis of regional associations between ocean temperature, surface wind divergence, and convection produced two important results. First, over broad regions of the Indian and Pacific oceans, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in excess of 27.5 degrees C are required for large-scale deep convection to occur. However, SSTs above that temperature are not a sufficient condition for convection and further increases in SST appear to have little effect on the intensity of convection. Second, when SSTs are above 27.5 degrees C, surface wind divergence is closely associated with the presence or absence of deep convection. Although this result could have been expected, it was also found that areas of persistent divergent surface flow coincide with regions where convection appears to be consistently suppressed even when SSTs are above 27.5 degrees C. Thus changes in atmospheric stability caused by remotely forced changes in subsidence aloft may play a major role in regulating convection over warm tropical oceans.

Bispectrum analysis of electroencephalogram signals during waking and sleeping.

The degree of interaction of component waves making up a single electroencephalogram trace was strongly correlated with alpha activity, lead placement, and state of consciousness. Significant quadratic coupling of the waves was found only for awake subjects with high alpha activity. For these subjects about 50 percent of beta activity can be attributed to harmonic coupling with the alpha peak. During sleep, the degree of interaction was of borderline significance and did not follow a consistent pattern with respect to subject, frequency, state, or lead.