Determinants of mortality among hospitalized patients with COVID-19 during first and second waves of the pandemic: A retrospective cohort study from an isolation center in Kano, Nigeria.

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has emerged as an important cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. The aim of this study is to identify the clinical predictors of mortality among patients with COVID-19 pneumonia during first and second waves in a treatment center in northwestern Nigeria. METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study of 195 patients hospitalized with COVID-19 between April 2020 to March 2021 at a designated COVID-19 isolation center in Kano State, Northwest Nigeria. Data were summarized using frequencies and percentages. Unadjusted odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals and p-values were obtained. To determine independent determinants of mortality, we performed a stepwise multivariate logistic regression model. RESULTS: Of 195 patients studied, 21(10.77%) patients died. Males comprised 158 (81.03%) of the study population. In the adjusted stepwise logistic regression analysis, age>64 years (OR = 9.476, 95% CI: 2.181-41.165), second wave of the pandemic (OR = 49.340, 95% CI:6.222-391.247), cardiac complications (OR = 24.984, 95% CI: 3.618-172.508), hypertension (OR = 5.831, 95% CI:1.413-24.065) and lowest systolic blood pressure while on admission greater than or equal to 90mmHg were independent predictors of mortality (OR = 0.111, 95%CI: 0.021-0.581). CONCLUSION: Strategies targeted to prioritize needed care to patients with identified factors that predict mortality might improve patient outcome.

The cholera risk assessment in Kano State, Nigeria: A historical review, mapping of hotspots and evaluation of contextual factors.

Nigeria is endemic for cholera since 1970, and Kano State report outbreaks annually with high case fatality ratios ranging from 4.98%/2010 to 5.10%/2018 over the last decade. However, interventions focused on cholera prevention and control have been hampered by a lack of understanding of hotspot Local Government Areas (LGAs) that trigger and sustain yearly outbreaks. The goal of this study was to identify and categorize cholera hotspots in Kano State to inform a national plan for disease control and elimination in the State. We obtained LGA level confirmed and suspected cholera data from 2010 to 2019 from the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) and Kano State Ministry of Health. Data on inland waterbodies and population numbers were obtained from online sources and NCDC, respectively. Clusters (hotspots) were identified using SaTScan through a retrospective analysis of the data for the ten-year period using a Poisson discrete space-time scan statistic. We also used a method newly proposed by the Global Task Force on Cholera Control (GTFCC) to identify and rank hotspots based on two epidemiological indicators including mean annual incidence per 100 000 population of reported cases and the persistence of cholera for the study period. In the ten-year period, 16,461 cholera cases were reported with a case fatality ratio of 3.32% and a mean annual incidence rate of 13.4 cases per 100 000 population. Between 2010 and 2019, the most severe cholera exacerbations occurred in 2014 and 2018 with annual incidence rates of 58.01 and 21.52 cases per 100 000 inhabitants, respectively. Compared to 2017, reported cases and deaths increased by 214.56% and 406.67% in 2018. The geographic distribution of outbreaks revealed considerable spatial heterogeneity with the widest in 2014. Space-time clustering analysis identified 18 out of 44 LGAs as high risk for cholera (hotspots) involving both urban and rural LGAs. Cholera clustered around water bodies, and the relative risk of having cholera inside the hotspot LGA were 1.02 to 3.30 times higher than elsewhere in the State. A total of 4,894,144 inhabitants were in these hotspots LGAs. Of these, six LGAs with a total population of 1.665 million had a relative risk greater than 2 compared to the state as a whole. The SaTScan (statistical) and GTFCC methods were in agreement in hotspots identification. This study identified cholera hotspots LGAs in Kano State from 2010-2019. Hotspots appeared in both urban and rural settings. Focusing control strategies on these hotspots will facilitate control and eliminate cholera from the State.

Progress toward poliomyelitis eradication in Kano State, Nigeria, 2010 - 2017.

Introduction: Kano State in Northern Nigeria was a major source of Wild Polio Virus (WPV) cases in Nigeria up until 2015. In 2009, the State reported 168 WPV cases out of the 388 reported nationally. This paper characterizes the progress made by Kano State in polio eradication. Methods: In December 2017, we conducted a descriptive review of Routine Immunization (RI) from both the District Vaccine Data Management Tool (DVD-MT) and District Health Information System (DHIS2) from 2010 to 2017. Also, we reviewed the Acute Flaccid Paralysis (AFP) and Supplementary Immunization Activities (SIAs) data reported for Kano State from 2010 to 2017. Also, we obtained the number of reported WPV cases by serotypes. Results: From 2010 to 2017, a total of 65 confirmed WPV cases were reported in Kano State. Of these, 58 (89%) were WPV1 and 7 (11%) WPV3. Almost half of these cases were reported in 2012 from 14 LGAs. The number of reported cases fell to 15 (23%) in 10 LGAs in 2013, and further decreased to 5 (8%) in four LGAs in 2014. No new WPV cases have been detected in Kano since 2015. During the same period, 23 circulating Vaccine Derived Polio Viruses (cVDPV2) cases were reported in Kano. Specifically, 10 LGAs reported 10 cases in 2011. Three LGAs reported three cases in 2012, while eight LGAs reported 10 total cases in 2014. During the 2010 to 2017 period 61 SIAs were conducted. Conclusion: Kano State made progress toward polio eradication. Sustained eradication efforts, in form of high quality RI, SIAs and AFP surveillance are necessary to avert possible importation from 2016 polio resurgence in nearby Borno State, Nigeria.

Mobilizing political support proved critical to a successful switch from tOPV to bOPV in Kano, Nigeria 2016.

BACKGROUND: Kano is one of the high-risk states for polio transmission in Northern Nigeria. The state reported more cases of wild polioviruses (WPVs) than any other state in the country. The Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey of 2013 indicated that OPV3 coverage in the routine immunization (RI) programmewas 57.9%. Additionally, serial polio seroprevalence studies conducted from 2011 to 2015 in the eightmetropolitan LGAs indicated low immunity levels against all three polio serotypes in children below one year. Areas with sub-optimal RI coverage such as Kanothat fail to remove all tOPV during the tOPV-bOPV switchwill be at increased risk of VDPV2 circulation. METHODS: We assessed the impact of political leadership engagement in mobilizing other stakeholders on the outcomes of the bOPV-tOPV switch in Kano State from February to May 2016 using nationally-selected planning and outcome indicators. RESULTS: A total of 670 health facilities that provide RI services were assessed during the pre-switch activities. Health workers were aware of the switch exercise in 520 (95.1%) of the public health facilities assessed. It was found that health workers knew what to do should tOPV be found in any of the 521 (95.2%)public health facilities assessed. However, there was a wide disparity between the public and private health practitioners' knowledge on basic concepts of the switch. There was 100% withdrawal of tOPV from the state and the seven zonal cold stores. Unmarked tOPVwas found in the cold chain system in 2 (4.5%) LGAs. Only one health facility (0.8%) had tOPV in the cold chain. No tOPVwas identified outside the cold chain without the "Do not use" sticker in any of the health facilities. CONCLUSION: The engagement of the political leadership to mobilize other key stakeholders facilitated successful implementation of the tOPV-bOPVswitch exercise and provided opportunity to strengthen partnerships with the private health sector in Kano State.