To tolerate or to agree: A tutorial on tolerance intervals in method comparison studies with BivRegBLS R Package.

The well-known agreement interval by Bland and Altman is extensively applied in method comparison studies. Two clinical measurement methods are considered interchangeable if their differences are not clinically significant. The agreement interval is commonly applied to assess the spread of the differences. However, this interval is approximate (too narrow) and several authors propose calculating a confidence interval around each bound. This article demonstrates that this approach is misleading, awkward, and confusing. On the other hand, tolerance intervals are exact and can include a confidence level if needed. Tolerance intervals are also easier to calculate and to interpret. Real data sets are used to illustrate the tolerance intervals with the R package BivRegBLS under normal or log-normal assumptions. Furthermore, it is also explained how to assess the coverage probabilities of the tolerance intervals with simulations.

Cardiac Troponin T and Troponin I in the General Population.

BACKGROUND: There is great interest in widening the use of high-sensitivity cardiac troponins for population cardiovascular disease (CVD) and heart failure screening. However, it is not clear whether cardiac troponin T (cTnT) and troponin I (cTnI) are equivalent measures of risk in this setting. We aimed to compare and contrast (1) the association of cTnT and cTnI with CVD and non-CVD outcomes, and (2) their determinants in a genome-wide association study. METHODS: High-sensitivity cTnT and cTnI were measured in serum from 19 501 individuals in Generation Scotland Scottish Family Health Study. Median follow-up was 7.8 years (quartile 1 to quartile 3, 7.1-9.2). Associations of each troponin with a composite CVD outcome (1177 events), CVD death (n=266), non-CVD death (n=374), and heart failure (n=216) were determined by using Cox models. A genome-wide association study was conducted using a standard approach developed for the cohort. RESULTS: Both cTnI and cTnT were strongly associated with CVD risk in unadjusted models. After adjusting for classical risk factors, the hazard ratio for a 1 SD increase in log transformed troponin was 1.24 (95% CI, 1.17-1.32) and 1.11 (1.04-1.19) for cTnI and cTnT, respectively; ratio of hazard ratios 1.12 (1.04-1.21). cTnI, but not cTnT, was associated with myocardial infarction and coronary heart disease. Both cTnI and cTnT had strong associations with CVD death and heart failure. By contrast, cTnT, but not cTnI, was associated with non-CVD death; ratio of hazard ratios 0.77 (0.67-0.88). We identified 5 loci (53 individual single-nucleotide polymorphisms) that had genome-wide significant associations with cTnI, and a different set of 4 loci (4 single-nucleotide polymorphisms) for cTnT. CONCLUSIONS: The upstream genetic causes of low-grade elevations in cTnI and cTnT appear distinct, and their associations with outcomes also differ. Elevations in cTnI are more strongly associated with some CVD outcomes, whereas cTnT is more strongly associated with the risk of non-CVD death. These findings help inform the selection of an optimal troponin assay for future clinical care and research in this setting.

Metabolomic consequences of genetic inhibition of PCSK9 compared with statin treatment.

Background: Both statins and PCSK9 inhibitors lower blood low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) levels to reduce risk of cardiovascular events. To assess potential differences between metabolic effects of these two lipid-lowering therapies, we performed detailed lipid and metabolite profiling of a large randomized statin trial and compared the results with the effects of genetic inhibition of PCSK9, acting as a naturally occurring trial. Methods: 228 circulating metabolic measures were quantified by nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy, including lipoprotein subclass concentrations and their lipid composition, fatty acids, and amino acids, for 5,359 individuals (2,659 on treatment) in the PROspective Study of Pravastatin in the Elderly at Risk (PROSPER) trial at 6-months post-randomization. The corresponding metabolic measures were analyzed in eight population cohorts (N=72,185) using PCSK9 rs11591147 as an unconfounded proxy to mimic the therapeutic effects of PCSK9 inhibitors. Results: Scaled to an equivalent lowering of LDL-C, the effects of genetic inhibition of PCSK9 on 228 metabolic markers were generally consistent with those of statin therapy (R2=0.88). Alterations in lipoprotein lipid composition and fatty acid distribution were similar. However, discrepancies were observed for very-low-density lipoprotein (VLDL) lipid measures. For instance, genetic inhibition of PCSK9 had weaker effects on lowering of VLDL-cholesterol compared with statin therapy (54% vs. 77% reduction, relative to the lowering effect on LDL-C; P=2x10-7 for heterogeneity). Genetic inhibition of PCSK9 showed no significant effects on amino acids, ketones, or a marker of inflammation (GlycA) whereas statin treatment weakly lowered GlycA levels. Conclusions: Genetic inhibition of PCSK9 had similar metabolic effects to statin therapy on detailed lipid and metabolite profiles. However, PCSK9 inhibitors are predicted to have weaker effects on VLDL lipids compared with statins for an equivalent lowering of LDL-C, which potentially translate into smaller reductions in cardiovascular disease risk.

Comparison between High-Sensitivity Cardiac Troponin T and Cardiac Troponin I in a Large General Population Cohort.

BACKGROUND: Few data compare cardiac troponin T (cTnT) and cardiac troponin I (cTnI) in a general population. We sought to evaluate the distribution and association between cTnT, cTnI, and cardiovascular risk factors in a large general population cohort. METHODS: High-sensitivity cTnT and cTnI were measured in serum from 19501 individuals in the Generation Scotland Scottish Family Health Study. Associations with cardiovascular risk factors were compared using age- and sex-adjusted regression. Observed age- and sex-stratified 99th centiles were compared with 99th centiles for cTnT (men, 15.5 ng/L; women, 9.0 ng/L) and cTnI (men, 34.2 ng/L; women, 15.6 ng/L) used in clinical practice. RESULTS: cTnT and cTnI concentrations were detectable in 53.3% and 74.8% of participants, respectively, and were modestly correlated in unadjusted analyses (R 2 = 21.3%) and only weakly correlated after adjusting for age and sex (R 2 = 9.5%). Cardiovascular risk factors were associated with both troponins, but in age- and sex-adjusted analyses, cTnI was more strongly associated with age, male sex, body mass index, and systolic blood pressure (P < 0.0001 for all vs cTnT). cTnT was more strongly associated with diabetes (P < 0.0001 vs cTnI). The observed 99th centiles were broadly consistent with recommended 99th centiles in younger men and women. After the age of 60 years, observed 99th centiles increased substantially for cTnT, and beyond 70 years of age, the 99th centiles approximately doubled for both troponins. CONCLUSIONS: In the general population, cTnT and cTnI concentrations are weakly correlated and are differentially associated with cardiovascular risk factors. The 99th centiles currently in use are broadly appropriate for men and women up to but not beyond the age of 60 years.

Gaining an advantage by sitting an OSCE after your peers: A retrospective study.

Purpose: To investigate if final year medical students undertaking an OSCE station at a later stage during examination diet were advantaged over their peers who undertook the same station at an earlier stage, and whether any such effect varies by the student's relative academic standing. Methods: OSCE data from six consecutive final year cohorts totaling 1505 students was analyzed. Mixed effects logistic regression was used to model factors associated with the probability of passing each individual station (random effects for students and circuits; and fixed effects to assess the association with day of examination, time of day, gender and year). Results: Weaker students were more likely to pass if they took their OSCE later in the examination period. The odds of passing a station increased daily by 20%. Overall, the mean number of stations passed by each student increased over the 5 days. Conclusions: Students undertaking the same OSCE stations later in examination period statistically had higher chances of passing compared to their peers, and the weaker students appear to be particularly advantaged. These findings have major implications for OSCE design, to ensure students are not advantaged by examination timing, and weaker students are not "passing in error".

Diagnostic accuracy of optical coherence tomography for diagnosing glaucoma: secondary analyses of the GATE study.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: To assess the diagnostic performance of retinal nerve fibre layer (RNFL) data of optical coherence tomography (OCT) for detecting glaucoma. METHODS: Secondary analyses of a prospective, multicentre diagnostic study (Glaucoma Automated Tests Evaluation (GATE)) referred to hospital eye services in the UK were conducted. We included data from 899 of 966 participants referred to hospital eye services with suspected glaucoma or ocular hypertension. We used both eyes' data and logistic regression-based receiver operator characteristics analysis to build a set of models to measure the sensitivity and specificity of the average and inferior quadrant RNFL thickness data of OCT. The reference standard was expert clinician examination including automated perimetry. The main outcome measures were sensitivity at 0.95 specificity and specificity at 0.95 sensitivity and the corresponding RNFL thickness thresholds. We explored the possibility of accuracy improvement by adding measures of within-eye and between-eye variation, scan quality, intraocular pressure (IOP) and age. RESULTS: Glaucoma was diagnosed in at least one eye in 17% of participants. Areas under the curve were between 0.83 and 0.88. When specificity was fixed at 0.95, the sensitivity was between 0.38 and 0.55, and the highest values were reached with models including the inferior quadrant rather than the average RNFL thickness. Fixing sensitivity at 0.95, the specificity was between 0.36 and 0.58. The addition of age, refractive error, IOP or within-subject variation did not improve the accuracy. CONCLUSION: RNFL thickness data of OCT can be used as a diagnostic test, but accuracy estimates remain moderate even in exploratory multivariable modelling of aiming to improve accuracy.

Nuclear magnetic resonance-based metabolomics identifies phenylalanine as a novel predictor of incident heart failure hospitalisation: results from PROSPER and FINRISK 1997.

AIMS: We investigated the association between quantified metabolite, lipid and lipoprotein measures and incident heart failure hospitalisation (HFH) in the elderly, and examined whether circulating metabolic measures improve HFH prediction. METHODS AND RESULTS: Overall, 80 metabolic measures from the PROspective Study of Pravastatin in the Elderly at Risk (PROSPER) trial were measured by proton nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy (n = 5341; 182 HFH events during 2.7-year follow-up). We repeated the work in FINRISK 1997 (n = 7330; 133 HFH events during 5-year follow-up). In PROSPER, the circulating concentrations of 13 metabolic measures were found to be significantly different in those who were later hospitalised for heart failure after correction for multiple comparisons. These included creatinine, phenylalanine, glycoprotein acetyls, 3-hydroxybutyrate, and various high-density lipoprotein measures. In Cox models, two metabolites were associated with risk of HFH after adjustment for clinical risk factors and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP): phenylalanine [hazard ratio (HR) 1.29, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.10-1.53; P = 0.002] and acetate (HR 0.81, 95% CI 0.68-0.98; P = 0.026). Both were retained in the final model after backward elimination. Compared to a model with established risk factors and NT-proBNP, this model did not improve the C-index but did improve the overall continuous net reclassification index (NRI 0.21; 95% CI 0.06-0.35; P = 0.007) due to improvement in classification of non-cases (NRI 0.14; 95% CI 0.12-0.17; P < 0.001). Phenylalanine was replicated as a predictor of HFH in FINRISK 1997 (HR 1.23, 95% CI 1.03-1.48; P = 0.023). CONCLUSION: Our findings identify phenylalanine as a novel predictor of incident HFH, although prediction gains are low. Further mechanistic studies appear warranted.

Assessing the performance of methodological search filters to improve the efficiency of evidence information retrieval: five literature reviews and a qualitative study.

BACKGROUND: Effective study identification is essential for conducting health research, developing clinical guidance and health policy and supporting health-care decision-making. Methodological search filters (combinations of search terms to capture a specific study design) can assist in searching to achieve this. OBJECTIVES: This project investigated the methods used to assess the performance of methodological search filters, the information that searchers require when choosing search filters and how that information could be better provided. METHODS: Five literature reviews were undertaken in 2010/11: search filter development and testing; comparison of search filters; decision-making in choosing search filters; diagnostic test accuracy (DTA) study methods; and decision-making in choosing diagnostic tests. We conducted interviews and a questionnaire with experienced searchers to learn what information assists in the choice of search filters and how filters are used. These investigations informed the development of various approaches to gathering and reporting search filter performance data. We acknowledge that there has been a regrettable delay between carrying out the project, including the searches, and the publication of this report, because of serious illness of the principal investigator. RESULTS: The development of filters most frequently involved using a reference standard derived from hand-searching journals. Most filters were validated internally only. Reporting of methods was generally poor. Sensitivity, precision and specificity were the most commonly reported performance measures and were presented in tables. Aspects of DTA study methods are applicable to search filters, particularly in the development of the reference standard. There is limited evidence on how clinicians choose between diagnostic tests. No published literature was found on how searchers select filters. Interviewing and questioning searchers via a questionnaire found that filters were not appropriate for all tasks but were predominantly used to reduce large numbers of retrieved records and to introduce focus. The Inter Technology Appraisal Support Collaboration (InterTASC) Information Specialists' Sub-Group (ISSG) Search Filters Resource was most frequently mentioned by both groups as the resource consulted to select a filter. Randomised controlled trial (RCT) and systematic review filters, in particular the Cochrane RCT and the McMaster Hedges filters, were most frequently mentioned. The majority indicated that they used different filters depending on the requirement for sensitivity or precision. Over half of the respondents used the filters available in databases. Interviewees used various approaches when using and adapting search filters. Respondents suggested that the main factors that would make choosing a filter easier were the availability of critical appraisals and more detailed performance information. Provenance and having the filter available in a central storage location were also important. LIMITATIONS: The questionnaire could have been shorter and could have included more multiple choice questions, and the reviews of filter performance focused on only four study designs. CONCLUSIONS: Search filter studies should use a representative reference standard and explicitly report methods and results. Performance measures should be presented systematically and clearly. Searchers find filters useful in certain circumstances but expressed a need for more user-friendly performance information to aid filter choice. We suggest approaches to use, adapt and report search filter performance. Future work could include research around search filters and performance measures for study designs not addressed here, exploration of alternative methods of displaying performance results and numerical synthesis of performance comparison results. FUNDING: The National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and Medical Research Council-NIHR Methodology Research Programme (grant number G0901496).

Relationship of depression screening in cardiometabolic disease with vascular events and mortality: findings from a large primary care cohort with 4 years follow-up.

Aims: Benefits of routine depression screening for cardiometabolic disease patients remain unclear. We examined the association between depression screening and all-cause mortality and vascular events in cardiometabolic disease patients. Methods and results: 125 143 patients with cardiometabolic diseases (coronary heart disease, diabetes or previous stroke) in the UK participated in primary care chronic disease management in 2008/09, which included depression screening using the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Score. 10 670 receiving depression treatment exempted, 35 537 screened, while 78 936 not screened. We studied all-cause mortality and vascular events at 4 years, by electronic data linkage of 124 414 patients (99.4%) on primary care registers to hospital discharge and mortality records and used Cox proportional hazards on matched data using propensity score. Mean age for the screened and not screened population was 69 years (standard deviation-SD 11.9) and 67 years (SD 14.3), respectively; 58% (20 658) of the screened population were men and 65.3% (22 726) were socioeconomically deprived, compared with 54.2% (42 727) and 67.4% (51 686), respectively, in the not screened population. The screened population had lower all-cause mortality (Hazard Ratio-HR 0.89) and vascular events (HR 0.85) in the matched data of N = 21 893 patients each in the screened and the unscreened groups. Conclusion: Depression screening was associated with a reduction in all-cause mortality and vascular events in patients with cardiometabolic diseases. The uptake of screening was poor for unknown reasons. Reverse causality and confounding by disease severity and quality of care are important possible limitations. Further research to determine reproducibility and explore underlying mechanisms is merited.

High-Sensitivity Cardiac Troponin Concentration and Risk of First-Ever Cardiovascular Outcomes in 154,052 Participants.

BACKGROUND: High-sensitivity assays can quantify cardiac troponins I and T (hs-cTnI, hs-cTnT) in individuals with no clinically manifest myocardial injury. OBJECTIVES: The goal of this study was to assess associations of cardiac troponin concentration with cardiovascular disease (CVD) outcomes in primary prevention studies. METHODS: A search was conducted of PubMed, Web of Science, and EMBASE for prospective studies published up to September 2016, reporting on associations of cardiac troponin concentration with first-ever CVD outcomes (i.e., coronary heart disease [CHD], stroke, or the combination of both). Study-specific estimates, adjusted for conventional risk factors, were extracted by 2 independent reviewers, supplemented with de novo data from PROSPER (Pravastatin in Elderly Individuals at Risk of Vascular Disease Study), then pooled by using random effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: A total of 28 relevant studies were identified involving 154,052 participants. Cardiac troponin was detectable in 80.0% (hs-cTnI: 82.6%; hs-cTnT: 69.7%). In PROSPER, positive associations of log-linear shape were observed between hs-cTnT and CVD outcomes. In the meta-analysis, the relative risks comparing the top versus the bottom troponin third were 1.43 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.31 to 1.56) for CVD (11,763 events), 1.67 (95% CI: 1.50 to 1.86) for fatal CVD (7,775 events), 1.59 (95% CI: 1.38 to 1.83) for CHD (7,061 events), and 1.35 (95% CI: 1.23 to 1.48) for stroke (2,526 events). For fatal CVD, associations were stronger in North American studies (p = 0.010) and those measuring hs-cTnT rather than hs-cTnI (p = 0.027). CONCLUSIONS: In the general population, high cardiac troponin concentration within the normal range is associated with increased CVD risk. This association is independent of conventional risk factors, strongest for fatal CVD, and applies to both CHD and stroke.

Feasibility of the Manchester Acute Coronary Syndromes (MACS) decision rule to safely reduce unnecessary hospital admissions: a pilot randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Observational studies suggest that the Manchester Acute Coronary Syndromes (MACS) decision rule can effectively 'rule out' and 'rule in' acute coronary syndromes (ACS) following a single blood test. In a pilot randomised controlled trial, we aimed to determine whether a large trial is feasible. METHODS: Patients presenting to two EDs with suspected cardiac chest pain were randomised to receive care guided by the MACS decision rule (intervention group) or standard care (controls). The primary efficacy outcome was a successful discharge from the ED, defined as a decision to discharge within 4 hours of arrival providing that the patient did not have a missed acute myocardial infarction (AMI) or develop a major adverse cardiac event (MACE: death, AMI or coronary revascularisation) within 30 days. Feasibility outcomes included recruitment and attrition rates. RESULTS: In total, 138 patients were included between October 2013 and October 2014, of whom 131 (95%) were randomised (66 to intervention and 65 controls). Nine (7%) patients had prevalent AMI and six (5%) had incident MACE within 30 days. All 131 patients completed 30-day follow-up and were included in the final analysis with no missing data for the primary analyses. Compared with standard care, a significantly greater proportion of patients whose care was guided by the MACS rule were successfully discharged within 4 hours (26% vs 8%, adjusted OR 5.45, 95% CI 1.73 to 17.11, p=0.004). No patients in either group who were discharged within 4 hours had a diagnosis of AMI or incident MACE within 30 days (0.0%, 95% CI 0% to 20.0% in the intervention group). CONCLUSIONS: In this pilot trial, use of the MACS rule led to a significant increase in safe discharges from the ED but a larger, fully powered trial remains necessary. Our findings seem to support the feasibility of that trial. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN 86818215. RESEARCH ETHICS COMMITTEE REFERENCE: 13/NW/0081. UKCRN REGISTRATION ID: 14334.

Can Automated Imaging for Optic Disc and Retinal Nerve Fiber Layer Analysis Aid Glaucoma Detection?

PURPOSE: To compare the diagnostic performance of automated imaging for glaucoma. DESIGN: Prospective, direct comparison study. PARTICIPANTS: Adults with suspected glaucoma or ocular hypertension referred to hospital eye services in the United Kingdom. METHODS: We evaluated 4 automated imaging test algorithms: the Heidelberg Retinal Tomography (HRT; Heidelberg Engineering, Heidelberg, Germany) glaucoma probability score (GPS), the HRT Moorfields regression analysis (MRA), scanning laser polarimetry (GDx enhanced corneal compensation; Glaucoma Diagnostics (GDx), Carl Zeiss Meditec, Dublin, CA) nerve fiber indicator (NFI), and Spectralis optical coherence tomography (OCT; Heidelberg Engineering) retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL) classification. We defined abnormal tests as an automated classification of outside normal limits for HRT and OCT or NFI ≥ 56 (GDx). We conducted a sensitivity analysis, using borderline abnormal image classifications. The reference standard was clinical diagnosis by a masked glaucoma expert including standardized clinical assessment and automated perimetry. We analyzed 1 eye per patient (the one with more advanced disease). We also evaluated the performance according to severity and using a combination of 2 technologies. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Sensitivity and specificity, likelihood ratios, diagnostic, odds ratio, and proportion of indeterminate tests. RESULTS: We recruited 955 participants, and 943 were included in the analysis. The average age was 60.5 years (standard deviation, 13.8 years); 51.1% were women. Glaucoma was diagnosed in at least 1 eye in 16.8%; 32% of participants had no glaucoma-related findings. The HRT MRA had the highest sensitivity (87.0%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 80.2%-92.1%), but lowest specificity (63.9%; 95% CI, 60.2%-67.4%); GDx had the lowest sensitivity (35.1%; 95% CI, 27.0%-43.8%), but the highest specificity (97.2%; 95% CI, 95.6%-98.3%). The HRT GPS sensitivity was 81.5% (95% CI, 73.9%-87.6%), and specificity was 67.7% (95% CI, 64.2%-71.2%); OCT sensitivity was 76.9% (95% CI, 69.2%-83.4%), and specificity was 78.5% (95% CI, 75.4%-81.4%). Including only eyes with severe glaucoma, sensitivity increased: HRT MRA, HRT GPS, and OCT would miss 5% of eyes, and GDx would miss 21% of eyes. A combination of 2 different tests did not improve the accuracy substantially. CONCLUSIONS: Automated imaging technologies can aid clinicians in diagnosing glaucoma, but may not replace current strategies because they can miss some cases of severe glaucoma.

Automated imaging technologies for the diagnosis of glaucoma: a comparative diagnostic study for the evaluation of the diagnostic accuracy, performance as triage tests and cost-effectiveness (GATE study).

BACKGROUND: Many glaucoma referrals from the community to hospital eye services are unnecessary. Imaging technologies can potentially be useful to triage this population. OBJECTIVES: To assess the diagnostic performance and cost-effectiveness of imaging technologies as triage tests for identifying people with glaucoma. DESIGN: Within-patient comparative diagnostic accuracy study. Markov economic model comparing the cost-effectiveness of a triage test with usual care. SETTING: Secondary care. PARTICIPANTS: Adults referred from the community to hospital eye services for possible glaucoma. INTERVENTIONS: Heidelberg Retinal Tomography (HRT), including two diagnostic algorithms, glaucoma probability score (HRT-GPS) and Moorfields regression analysis (HRT-MRA); scanning laser polarimetry [glaucoma diagnostics (GDx)]; and optical coherence tomography (OCT). The reference standard was clinical examination by a consultant ophthalmologist with glaucoma expertise including visual field testing and intraocular pressure (IOP) measurement. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: (1) Diagnostic performance of imaging, using data from the eye with most severe disease. (2) Composite triage test performance (imaging test, IOP measurement and visual acuity measurement), using data from both eyes, in correctly identifying clinical management decisions, that is 'discharge' or 'do not discharge'. Outcome measures were sensitivity, specificity and incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). RESULTS: Data from 943 of 955 participants were included in the analysis. The average age was 60.5 years (standard deviation 13.8 years) and 51.1% were females. Glaucoma was diagnosed by the clinician in at least one eye in 16.8% of participants; 37.9% of participants were discharged after the first visit. Regarding diagnosing glaucoma, HRT-MRA had the highest sensitivity [87.0%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 80.2% to 92.1%] but the lowest specificity (63.9%, 95% CI 60.2% to 67.4%) and GDx had the lowest sensitivity (35.1%, 95% CI 27.0% to 43.8%) but the highest specificity (97.2%, 95% CI 95.6% to 98.3%). HRT-GPS had sensitivity of 81.5% (95% CI 73.9% to 87.6%) and specificity of 67.7% (95% CI 64.2% to 71.2%) and OCT had sensitivity of 76.9% (95% CI 69.2% to 83.4%) and specificity of 78.5% (95% CI 75.4% to 81.4%). Regarding triage accuracy, triage using HRT-GPS had the highest sensitivity (86.0%, 95% CI 82.8% to 88.7%) but the lowest specificity (39.1%, 95% CI 34.0% to 44.5%), GDx had the lowest sensitivity (64.7%, 95% CI 60.7% to 68.7%) but the highest specificity (53.6%, 95% CI 48.2% to 58.9%). Introducing a composite triage station into the referral pathway to identify appropriate referrals was cost-effective. All triage strategies resulted in a cost reduction compared with standard care (consultant-led diagnosis) but with an associated reduction in effectiveness. GDx was the least costly and least effective strategy. OCT and HRT-GPS were not cost-effective. Compared with GDx, the cost per QALY gained for HRT-MRA is £22,904. The cost per QALY gained with current practice is £156,985 compared with HRT-MRA. Large savings could be made by implementing HRT-MRA but some benefit to patients will be forgone. The results were sensitive to the triage costs. CONCLUSIONS: Automated imaging can be effective to aid glaucoma diagnosis among individuals referred from the community to hospital eye services. A model of care using a triage composite test appears to be cost-effective. FUTURE WORK: There are uncertainties about glaucoma progression under routine care and the cost of providing health care. The acceptability of implementing a triage test needs to be explored. FUNDING: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Should weight loss and maintenance programmes be designed differently for men? A systematic review of long-term randomised controlled trials presenting data for men and women: The ROMEO project.

We systematically reviewed the randomised controlled trial (RCT) evidence for long-term (≥12 months) weight management interventions for obese men in contrast to women to help understand whether programmes should be designed differently for men. We searched 11 databases up to October 2014. Twenty-two RCTs reported data separately for men and women in weight loss or weight maintenance interventions. We found men were under-represented in RCTs of weight loss interventions open to both sexes. Men comprised 36% of participants (4771 from 13,305 participants). Despite this, men were 11% (95% CI 8-14%, p<0.001) more likely to be trial completers compared to women. The trials did not report service user consultation and none were designed to investigate whether men and women responded differently to given interventions. Our meta-analysis of 13 trials showed no significant difference in weight loss between men and women, either for weight loss in kg (p=0.90) or percentage weight loss (p=0.78), although men tended to lose more weight with intensive low fat reducing diets, with or without meal replacements, and structured physical activity/exercise programmes than women. Orlistat was less beneficial for men for weight maintenance. Individual support and tailoring appeared more helpful for men than women. We found evidence that men and women respond differently to, and have different preferences for, varying types of weight management programme. We suggest that it is important to understand men's views on weight loss, as this is likely to also improve the uptake and effectiveness of programmes for men.

Use of drug therapy in the management of symptomatic ureteric stones in hospitalised adults: a multicentre, placebo-controlled, randomised controlled trial and cost-effectiveness analysis of a calcium channel blocker (nifedipine) and an alpha-blocker (tamsulosin) (the SUSPEND trial).

BACKGROUND: Ureteric colic, the term used to describe the pain felt when a stone passes down the ureter from the kidney to the bladder, is a frequent reason for people to seek emergency health care. Treatment with the muscle-relaxant drugs tamsulosin hydrochloride (Petyme, TEVA UK Ltd) and nifedipine (Coracten(®), UCB Pharma Ltd) as medical expulsive therapy (MET) is increasingly being used to improve the likelihood of spontaneous stone passage and lessen the need for interventional procedures. However, there remains considerable uncertainty around the effectiveness of these drugs for routine use. OBJECTIVES: To determine whether or not treatment with either tamsulosin 400 µg or nifedipine 30 mg for up to 4 weeks increases the rate of spontaneous stone passage for people with ureteric colic compared with placebo, and whether or not it is cost-effective for the UK NHS. DESIGN: A pragmatic, randomised controlled trial comparing two active drugs, tamsulosin and nifedipine, against placebo. Participants, clinicians and trial staff were blinded to treatment allocation. A cost-utility analysis was performed using data gathered during trial participation. SETTING: Urology departments in 24 UK NHS hospitals. PARTICIPANTS: Adults aged between 18 and 65 years admitted as an emergency with a single ureteric stone measuring ≤ 10 mm, localised by computerised tomography, who were able to take trial medications and complete trial procedures. INTERVENTIONS: Eligible participants were randomised 1 : 1 : 1 to take tamsulosin 400 µg, nifedipine 30 mg or placebo once daily for up to 4 weeks to make the following comparisons: tamsulosin or nifedipine (MET) versus placebo and tamsulosin versus nifedipine. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary effectiveness outcome was the proportion of participants who spontaneously passed their stone. This was defined as the lack of need for active intervention for ureteric stones at up to 4 weeks after randomisation. This was determined from 4- and 12-week case-report forms completed by research staff, and from the 4-week participant self-reported questionnaire. The primary economic outcome was the incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained over 12 weeks. We estimated costs from NHS sources and calculated QALYs from participant completion of the European Quality of Life-5 Dimensions health status questionnaire 3-level response (EQ-5D-3L™) at baseline, 4 weeks and 12 weeks. RESULTS: Primary outcome analysis included 97% of the 1167 participants randomised (378/391 tamsulosin, 379/387 nifedipine and 379/399 placebo participants). The proportion of participants who spontaneously passed their stone did not differ between MET and placebo [odds ratio (OR) 1.04, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.77 to 1.43; absolute difference 0.8%, 95% CI -4.1% to 5.7%] or between tamsulosin and nifedipine [OR 1.06, 95% CI 0.74 to 1.53; absolute difference 1%, 95% CI -4.6% to 6.6%]. There was no evidence of a difference in QALYs gained or in cost between the trial groups, which means that the use of MET would be very unlikely to be considered cost-effective. These findings were unchanged by extensive sensitivity analyses around predictors of stone passage, including sex, stone size and stone location. CONCLUSIONS: Tamsulosin and nifedipine did not increase the likelihood of stone passage over 4 weeks for people with ureteric colic, and use of these drugs is very unlikely to be cost-effective for the NHS. Further work is required to investigate the phenomenon of large, high-quality trials showing smaller effect size than meta-analysis of several small, lower-quality studies. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN69423238. European Clinical Trials Database (EudraCT) number 2010-019469-26. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 19, No. 63. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

A systematic review of the use of an expertise-based randomised controlled trial design.

BACKGROUND: Under a conventional two-arm randomised trial design, participants are allocated to an intervention and participating health professionals are expected to deliver both interventions. However, health professionals often have differing levels of expertise in a skill-based interventions such as surgery or psychotherapy. An expertise-based approach to trial design, where health professionals only deliver an intervention in which they have expertise, has been proposed as an alternative. The aim of this project was to systematically review the use of an expertise-based trial design in the medical literature. METHODS: We carried out a comprehensive search of nine databases--AMED, BIOSIS, CENTRAL, CINAHL, Cochrane Methodology Register, EMBASE, MEDLINE, Science Citation Index, and PsycINFO--from 1966 to 2012 and performed citation searches using the ISI Citation Indexes and Scopus. Studies that used an expertise-based trial design were included. Two review authors independently screened the titles and abstracts and assessed full-text reports. Data were extracted and summarised on the study characteristics, general and expertise-specific study methodology, and conduct. RESULTS: In total, 7476 titles and abstracts were identified, leading to 43 included studies (54 articles). The vast majority (88%) used a pure expertise-based design; three (7%) adopted a hybrid design, and two (5%) used a design that was unclear. Most studies compared substantially different interventions (79%). In many cases, key information relating to the expertise-based design was absent; only 12 (28%) reported criteria for delivering both interventions. Most studies recruited the target sample size or very close to it (median of 101, interquartile range of 94 to 118), although the target was reported for only 40% of studies. The proportion of participants who received the allocated intervention was high (92%, interquartile range of 82 to 99%). CONCLUSIONS: While use of an expertise-based trial design is growing, it remains uncommon. Reporting of study methodology and, particularly, expertise-related methodology was poor. Empirical evidence provided some support for purported benefits such as high levels of recruitment and compliance with allocation. An expertise-based trial design should be considered but its value seems context-specific, particularly when interventions differ substantially or interventions are typically delivered by different health professionals.

Medical expulsive therapy in adults with ureteric colic: a multicentre, randomised, placebo-controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Meta-analyses of previous randomised controlled trials concluded that the smooth muscle relaxant drugs tamsulosin and nifedipine assisted stone passage for people managed expectantly for ureteric colic, but emphasised the need for high-quality trials with wide inclusion criteria. We aimed to fulfil this need by testing effectiveness of these drugs in a standard clinical care setting. METHODS: For this multicentre, randomised, placebo-controlled trial, we recruited adults (aged 18-65 years) undergoing expectant management for a single ureteric stone identified by CT at 24 UK hospitals. Participants were randomly assigned by a remote randomisation system to tamsulosin 400 µg, nifedipine 30 mg, or placebo taken daily for up to 4 weeks, using an algorithm with centre, stone size (≤5 mm or >5 mm), and stone location (upper, mid, or lower ureter) as minimisation covariates. Participants, clinicians, and trial personnel were masked to treatment assignment. The primary outcome was the proportion of participants who did not need further intervention for stone clearance within 4 weeks of randomisation, analysed in a modified intention-to-treat population defined as all eligible patients for whom we had primary outcome data. This trial is registered with the European Clinical Trials Database, EudraCT number 2010-019469-26, and as an International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial, number 69423238. FINDINGS: Between Jan 11, 2011, and Dec 20, 2013, we randomly assigned 1167 participants, 1136 (97%) of whom were included in the primary analysis (17 were excluded because of ineligibility and 14 participants were lost to follow-up). 303 (80%) of 379 participants in the placebo group did not need further intervention by 4 weeks, compared with 307 (81%) of 378 in the tamsulosin group (adjusted risk difference 1·3% [95% CI -5·7 to 8·3]; p=0·73) and 304 (80%) of 379 in the nifedipine group (0·5% [-5·6 to 6·5]; p=0·88). No difference was noted between active treatment and placebo (p=0·78), or between tamsulosin and nifedipine (p=0·77). Serious adverse events were reported in three participants in the nifedipine group (one had right loin pain, diarrhoea, and vomiting; one had malaise, headache, and chest pain; and one had severe chest pain, difficulty breathing, and left arm pain) and in one participant in the placebo group (headache, dizziness, lightheadedness, and chronic abdominal pain). INTERPRETATION: Tamsulosin 400 µg and nifedipine 30 mg are not effective at decreasing the need for further treatment to achieve stone clearance in 4 weeks for patients with expectantly managed ureteric colic. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment Programme.