Biodiversity conservation as a promising frontier for behavioural science.

Human activities are degrading ecosystems worldwide, posing existential threats for biodiversity and humankind. Slowing and reversing this degradation will require profound and widespread changes to human behaviour. Behavioural scientists are therefore well placed to contribute intellectual leadership in this area. This Perspective aims to stimulate a marked increase in the amount and breadth of behavioural research addressing this challenge. First, we describe the importance of the biodiversity crisis for human and non-human prosperity and the central role of human behaviour in reversing this decline. Next, we discuss key gaps in our understanding of how to achieve behaviour change for biodiversity conservation and suggest how to identify key behaviour changes and actors capable of improving biodiversity outcomes. Finally, we outline the core components for building a robust evidence base and suggest priority research questions for behavioural scientists to explore in opening a new frontier of behavioural science for the benefit of nature and human wellbeing.

In a mental-health care setting, can nature conservation and health priorities align?

There is growing evidence that activities in nature could meet both health and nature conservation goals. Consequently, there is growing interest in collaborations between health and nature conservation organizations. However, interdisciplinary teamwork and collaborations risk failing through lack of common understanding and awareness of desired outcomes. For this project a multidisciplinary team was established and used a case study collaboration between a major conservation organization and health organization to examine perceptions of nature and assess the nature interventions desired by people in both sectors. We found a broad overlap in understanding of nature. However, there was a tendency for conservation outcomes to be overlooked, highlighting a potential risk of disengagement from the conservation partner. We recommend that health-conservation collaborations increase early communication and more strongly promote the interventions that provide tangible, physical benefits to nature.

The importance of landscape characteristics for the delivery of cultural ecosystem services.

The importance of Cultural Ecosystem Services (CES) to human wellbeing is widely recognised. However, quantifying these non-material benefits is challenging and consequently they are often not assessed. Mapping approaches are increasingly being used to understand the spatial distribution of different CES and how this relates to landscape characteristics. This study uses an online Public Participation Geographic Information System (PPGIS) to elicit information on outdoor locations important to respondents in Wiltshire, a dynamic lowland landscape in southern England. We analysed these locations in a GIS with spatial datasets representing potential influential factors, including protected areas, land use, landform, and accessibility. We assess these characteristics at different spatial and visual scales for different types of cultural engagement. We find that areas that are accessible, near to urban centres, with larger views, and a high diversity of protected habitats, are important for the delivery of CES. Other characteristics including a larger area of woodland and the presence of sites of historic interest in the surrounding landscape were also influential. These findings have implications for land-use planning and the management of ecosystems, by demonstrating the benefits of high quality ecological sites near to towns. The importance of maintaining and restoring landscape features, such as woodlands, to enhance the delivery of CES were also highlighted.

Climate change vulnerability for species-Assessing the assessments.

Climate change vulnerability assessments are commonly used to identify species at risk from global climate change, but the wide range of methodologies available makes it difficult for end users, such as conservation practitioners or policymakers, to decide which method to use as a basis for decision-making. In this study, we evaluate whether different assessments consistently assign species to the same risk categories and whether any of the existing methodologies perform well at identifying climate-threatened species. We compare the outputs of 12 climate change vulnerability assessment methodologies, using both real and simulated species, and validate the methods using historic data for British birds and butterflies (i.e. using historical data to assign risks and more recent data for validation). Our results show that the different vulnerability assessment methods are not consistent with one another; different risk categories are assigned for both the real and simulated sets of species. Validation of the different vulnerability assessments suggests that methods incorporating historic trend data into the assessment perform best at predicting distribution trends in subsequent time periods. This study demonstrates that climate change vulnerability assessments should not be used interchangeably due to the poor overall agreement between methods when considering the same species. The results of our validation provide more support for the use of trend-based rather than purely trait-based approaches, although further validation will be required as data become available.

Reconciling Biodiversity Conservation and Widespread Deployment of Renewable Energy Technologies in the UK.

Renewable energy will potentially make an important contribution towards the dual aims of meeting carbon emission reduction targets and future energy demand. However, some technologies have considerable potential to impact on the biodiversity of the environments in which they are placed. In this study, an assessment was undertaken of the realistic deployment potential of a range of renewable energy technologies in the UK, considering constraints imposed by biodiversity conservation priorities. We focused on those energy sources that have the potential to make important energy contributions but which might conflict with biodiversity conservation objectives. These included field-scale solar, bioenergy crops, wind energy (both onshore and offshore), wave and tidal stream energy. The spatially-explicit analysis considered the potential opportunity available for each technology, at various levels of ecological risk. The resultant maps highlight the energy resource available, physical and policy constraints to deployment, and ecological sensitivity (based on the distribution of protected areas and sensitive species). If the technologies are restricted to areas which currently appear not to have significant ecological constraints, the total potential energy output from these energy sources was estimated to be in the region of 5,547 TWh/yr. This would be sufficient to meet projected energy demand in the UK, and help to achieve carbon reduction targets. However, we highlight two important caveats. First, further ecological monitoring and surveillance is required to improve understanding of wildlife distributions and therefore potential impacts of utilising these energy sources. This is likely to reduce the total energy available, especially at sea. Second, some of the technologies under investigation are currently not deployed commercially. Consequently this potential energy will only be available if continued effort is put into developing these energy sources/technologies, to enable realisation of their full potential.

Geographical variation in species' population responses to changes in temperature and precipitation.

Despite increasing concerns about the vulnerability of species' populations to climate change, there has been little overall synthesis of how individual population responses to variation in climate differ between taxa, with trophic level or geographically. To address this, we extracted data from 132 long-term (greater than or equal to 20 years) studies of population responses to temperature and precipitation covering 236 animal and plant species across terrestrial and freshwater habitats. Our results identify likely geographical differences in the effects of climate change on populations and communities in line with macroecological theory. Temperature tended to have a greater overall impact on populations than precipitation, although the effects of increased precipitation varied strongly with latitude, being most positive at low latitudes. Population responses to increased temperature were generally positive, but did not vary significantly with latitude. Studies reporting significant climatic trends through time tended to show more negative effects of temperature and more positive effects of precipitation upon populations than other studies, indicating climate change has already impacted many populations. Most studies of climate change impacts on biodiversity have focused on temperature and are from middle to high northern latitudes. Our results suggest their findings may be less applicable to low latitudes.

Rapid assessment of ecosystem services provided by two mineral extraction sites restored for nature conservation in an agricultural landscape in eastern England.

Despite growing recognition that mineral sites restored for nature conservation can enhance local biodiversity, the wider societal benefits provided by this type of restoration relative to alternative options are not well understood. This study addresses this research gap by quantifying differences in ecosystem services provision under two common mineral site after-uses: nature conservation and agriculture. Using a combination of site-specific primary field data, benefits transfer and modelling, we show that for our sites restoration for nature conservation provides a more diverse array of ecosystem services than would be delivered under an agricultural restoration scenario. We also explore the effects of addressing different conservation targets, which we find alter the provision of ecosystem services on a service-specific basis. Highly species-focused intervention areas are associated with increased carbon storage and livestock grazing provision, whereas non-intervention areas are important for carbon sequestration, fishing, recreation and flood risk mitigation. The results of this study highlight the wider societal importance of restored mineral sites and may help conservation managers and planners to develop future restoration strategies that provide benefits for both biodiversity and human well-being.

Benefits and costs of ecological restoration: Rapid assessment of changing ecosystem service values at a U.K. wetland.

Restoration of degraded land is recognized by the international community as an important way of enhancing both biodiversity and ecosystem services, but more information is needed about its costs and benefits. In Cambridgeshire, U.K., a long-term initiative to convert drained, intensively farmed arable land to a wetland habitat mosaic is driven by a desire both to prevent biodiversity loss from the nationally important Wicken Fen National Nature Reserve (Wicken Fen NNR) and to increase the provision of ecosystem services. We evaluated the changes in ecosystem service delivery resulting from this land conversion, using a new Toolkit for Ecosystem Service Site-based Assessment (TESSA) to estimate biophysical and monetary values of ecosystem services provided by the restored wetland mosaic compared with the former arable land. Overall results suggest that restoration is associated with a net gain to society as a whole of $199 ha(-1)y(-1), for a one-off investment in restoration of $2320 ha(-1). Restoration has led to an estimated loss of arable production of $2040 ha(-1)y(-1), but estimated gains of $671 ha(-1)y(-1) in nature-based recreation, $120 ha(-1)y(-1) from grazing, $48 ha(-1)y(-1) from flood protection, and a reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions worth an estimated $72 ha(-1)y(-1). Management costs have also declined by an estimated $1325 ha(-1)y(-1). Despite uncertainties associated with all measured values and the conservative assumptions used, we conclude that there was a substantial gain to society as a whole from this land-use conversion. The beneficiaries also changed from local arable farmers under arable production to graziers, countryside users from towns and villages, and the global community, under restoration. We emphasize that the values reported here are not necessarily transferable to other sites.

Mechanisms underpinning climatic impacts on natural populations: altered species interactions are more important than direct effects.

Shifts in species' distribution and abundance in response to climate change have been well documented, but the underpinning processes are still poorly understood. We present the results of a systematic literature review and meta-analysis investigating the frequency and importance of different mechanisms by which climate has impacted natural populations. Most studies were from temperate latitudes of North America and Europe; almost half investigated bird populations. We found significantly greater support for indirect, biotic mechanisms than direct, abiotic mechanisms as mediators of the impact of climate on populations. In addition, biotic effects tended to have greater support than abiotic factors in studies of species from higher trophic levels. For primary consumers, the impact of climate was equally mediated by biotic and abiotic mechanisms, whereas for higher level consumers the mechanisms were most frequently biotic, such as predation or food availability. Biotic mechanisms were more frequently supported in studies that reported a directional trend in climate than in studies with no such climatic change, although sample sizes for this comparison were small. We call for more mechanistic studies of climate change impacts on populations, particularly in tropical systems.

Protected areas act as establishment centres for species colonizing the UK.

Protected area (PA) networks will remain valuable for conservation, as the global environment changes, if they facilitate the colonization of new regions by species that are shifting their geographical ranges. We tested the extent to which wetland bird species colonizing the UK since 1960 have exploited PAs. Colonization commenced in a PA for all six species that established permanent (greater than 10 years) breeding populations in the UK during this period. Subsequently, birds started to breed outside as well as inside PAs: the colonizing species showing declining fractions of breeding within PAs over time, a trend not seen in already-resident species. PAs were valuable as 'landing pads' for range-shifting species first arriving in a new region, and then as 'establishment centres' from which viable populations spread. Given future projections of range change across a broad range of taxonomic groups, this role for PAs can be expected to become increasingly important.

Protected areas facilitate species' range expansions.

The benefits of protected areas (PAs) for biodiversity have been questioned in the context of climate change because PAs are static, whereas the distributions of species are dynamic. Current PAs may, however, continue to be important if they provide suitable locations for species to colonize at their leading-edge range boundaries, thereby enabling spread into new regions. Here, we present an empirical assessment of the role of PAs as targets for colonization during recent range expansions. Records from intensive surveys revealed that seven bird and butterfly species have colonized PAs 4.2 (median) times more frequently than expected from the availability of PAs in the landscapes colonized. Records of an additional 256 invertebrate species with less-intensive surveys supported these findings and showed that 98% of species are disproportionately associated with PAs in newly colonized parts of their ranges. Although colonizing species favor PAs in general, species vary greatly in their reliance on PAs, reflecting differences in the dependence of individual species on particular habitats and other conditions that are available only in PAs. These findings highlight the importance of current PAs for facilitating range expansions and show that a small subset of the landscape receives a high proportion of colonizations by range-expanding species.

Wildlife-friendly farming benefits rare birds, bees and plants.

Agricultural intensification is a leading cause of global biodiversity loss, especially for threatened and near-threatened species. One widely implemented response is 'wildlife-friendly farming', involving the close integration of conservation and extensive farming practices within agricultural landscapes. However, the putative benefits from this controversial policy are currently either unknown or thought unlikely to extend to rare and declining species. Here, we show that new, evidence-based approaches to habitat creation on intensively managed farmland in England can achieve large increases in plant, bee and bird species. In particular, we found that habitat enhancement methods designed to provide the requirements of sensitive target biota consistently increased the richness and abundance of both rare and common species, with 10-fold to greater than 100-fold more rare species per sample area than generalized conventional conservation measures. Furthermore, targeting landscapes of high species richness amplified beneficial effects on the least mobile taxa: plants and bees. Our results provide the first unequivocal support for a national wildlife-friendly farming policy and suggest that this approach should be implemented much more extensively to address global biodiversity loss. However, to be effective, these conservation measures must be evidence-based, and developed using sound knowledge of the ecological requirements of key species.

Why do we still use stepwise modelling in ecology and behaviour?

1. The biases and shortcomings of stepwise multiple regression are well established within the statistical literature. However, an examination of papers published in 2004 by three leading ecological and behavioural journals suggested that the use of this technique remains widespread: of 65 papers in which a multiple regression approach was used, 57% of studies used a stepwise procedure. 2. The principal drawbacks of stepwise multiple regression include bias in parameter estimation, inconsistencies among model selection algorithms, an inherent (but often overlooked) problem of multiple hypothesis testing, and an inappropriate focus or reliance on a single best model. We discuss each of these issues with examples. 3. We use a worked example of data on yellowhammer distribution collected over 4 years to highlight the pitfalls of stepwise regression. We show that stepwise regression allows models containing significant predictors to be obtained from each year's data. In spite of the significance of the selected models, they vary substantially between years and suggest patterns that are at odds with those determined by analysing the full, 4-year data set. 4. An information theoretic (IT) analysis of the yellowhammer data set illustrates why the varying outcomes of stepwise analyses arise. In particular, the IT approach identifies large numbers of competing models that could describe the data equally well, showing that no one model should be relied upon for inference.

Brain size and resource specialization predict long-term population trends in British birds.

Large-scale population declines have been documented across many faunal assemblages. However, there is much variation in population trends for individual species, and few indications of which specific ecological and behavioural characteristics are associated with such trends. We used the British Common Birds Census (1968-1995) to identify specific traits associated with long-term abundance trends in UK farmland birds. Two factors, resource specialization and relative brain size, were significantly associated with population trend, such that species using atypical resources and with relatively small brains were most likely to have experienced overall declines. Further analyses of specific brain components indicated that the relative size of the telencephalon, the part of the brain associated with problem solving and complex behaviours, and the brain stem might be better predictors of population trend than overall brain size. These results suggest that flexibility in resource use and behaviour are the most important characteristics for determining a species' ability to cope with large-scale habitat changes.

Widespread local house-sparrow extinctions.

House-sparrow populations have declined sharply in Western Europe in recent decades, but the reasons for this decline have yet to be identified, despite intense public interest in the matter. Here we use a combination of field experimentation, genetic analysis and demographic data to show that a reduction in winter food supply caused by agricultural intensification is probably the principal explanation for the widespread local extinctions of rural house-sparrow populations in southern England. We show that farmland populations exhibit fine-level genetic structuring and that some populations are unable to sustain themselves (sinks), whereas others act as sources.

Sex and death: CHD1Z associated with high mortality in moorhens.

Sex ratios in clutches of moorhens (Gallinula chloropus) in Britain were measured on 83 chicks using the sex-linked CHD1 gene (Chromo-helicase/ATPase-DNA binding protein 1). Among birds, the female is the heterogametic sex (Z and W chromosomes), and the male is homogametic (two copies of the Z chromosome). We report variation among the PCR-amplified fragments of the CHD1Z, and the death of nearly all heterozygous male chicks (92%). In contrast, survivorship among females and homozygote males was 54-60%. Mortality in male heterozygotes was significantly higher than that of male homozygotes (P < 0.001). Chick and egg biometrics were not significantly different between these males. The CHD1Z was unlikely to be directly responsible but may have been hitchhiked by the causal gene(s). The observations appear to follow a classic underdominance (heterozygote inferiority) pattern, but raise the paradoxical question of why one form of the Z chromosome has not been fixed, as is expected from evolutionary theory. We discuss possible explanations and include a survey of British populations based on skin specimens.