Lung cancer screening an asbestos exposed population: Existing lung cancer risk criteria are not sufficient.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Asbestos is a major risk factor for lung cancer, with or without tobacco smoke exposure. Low dose computed tomography (LDCT) screening for early lung cancer is effective but only when targeting high risk populations. This study aimed to analyse the effectiveness of LDCT screening in an asbestos exposed population and to compare lung cancer screening program (LCSP) eligibility criteria. METHODS: Participants in an asbestos health surveillance program, the Western Australia Asbestos Review Program, underwent at least one LDCT scan and lung function assessment as part of annual review between 2012 and 2017. Lung cancer cases were confirmed through linkage to the WA cancer registry. Theoretical eligibility for different screening programs was calculated. RESULTS: Five thousand seven hundred and two LDCT scans were performed on 1743 individuals. The median age was 69.8 years, 1481 (85.0%) were male and 1147 (65.8%) were ever-smokers (median pack-year exposure of 20.0). Overall, 26 lung cancers were detected (1.5% of the population; 3.5 cases per 1000 person-years of observation). Lung cancer was early stage in 86.4% and four (15.4%) cases were never smokers. Based on current lung screening program criteria, 1299 (74.5%) of this population, including the majority (17, 65.4%) of lung cancer cases, would not have been eligible for any LCSP. CONCLUSION: This population is at raised risk despite modest tobacco exposure. LDCT screening is effective at identifying early-stage lung cancer in this population and existing lung cancer risk criteria do not capture this population adequately.

Hospital-based multidisciplinary lung cancer care in Australia: a survey of the landscape in 2021.

INTRODUCTION: Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer death in Australia and has the highest cancer burden. Numerous reports describe variations in lung cancer care and outcomes across Australia. There are no data assessing compliance with treatment guidelines and little is known about lung cancer multidisciplinary team (MDT) infrastructure around Australia. METHODS: Clinicians from institutions treating lung cancer were invited to complete an online survey regarding the local infrastructure for lung cancer care and contemporary issues affecting lung cancer. RESULTS: Responses from 79 separate institutions were obtained representing 72% of all known institutions treating lung cancer in Australia. Most (93.6%) held a regular MDT meeting although recommended core membership was only achieved for 42/73 (57.5%) sites. There was no thoracic surgery representation in 17/73 (23.3%) of MDTs and surgery was less represented in regional and low case volume centres. Specialist nurses were present in just 37/79 (46.8%) of all sites. Access to diagnostic and treatment facilities was limited for some institutions. IT infrastructure was variable and most sites (69%) do not perform regular audits against guidelines. The COVID-19 pandemic has driven most sites to incorporate virtual MDT meetings, with variable impact around the country. Clinician support for a national data-driven approach to improving lung cancer care was unanimous. DISCUSSION: This survey demonstrates variations in infrastructure support, provision and membership of lung cancer MDTs, in particular thoracic surgery and specialist lung cancer nurses. This heterogeneity may contribute to some of the well-documented variations in lung cancer outcomes in Australia.

Low dose CT detected interstitial lung abnormalities in a population with low asbestos exposure.

BACKGROUND: The use of low dose CT (LDCT) chest is becoming more widespread in occupationally exposed populations. There is a knowledge gap as to heterogeneity in severity and the natural course of asbestosis after low levels of exposure. This study reports the characteristics of LDCT-detected interstitial lung abnormalities (ILA). METHODS: The Asbestos Review Program offers annual LDCT, health assessments, and pulmonary function tests to an asbestos-exposed cohort. Asbestosis was defined using the Helsinki Consensus statement and the presence of ILA defined using a protocol for occupational CT reports. At least two of three pulmonary function tests: forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1 );​ forced vital capacity (FVC); and diffusion capacity for carbon monoxide (DLco) were required for analysis of physiological decline. RESULTS: From 1513 cases, radiological ILA was present in 485 (32%). The cohort was 83.5% male with a median age of 68.3 years and a median (IQR) asbestos exposure of 0.7 (0.09-2.32) fiber/ml-year. A mixed occupation, mixed asbestos fiber cohort comprised the majority of the cohort (65.8%). Of those with ILA, 40 (8.2%) had an FVC decline of ≥10% and 30 (6.2%) had a DLco decline of ≥15% per year. Time since first exposure, increasing tobacco exposure and reported dyspnea were independently associated with the presence of ILA. CONCLUSIONS: In this population with relatively low asbestos exposure, LDCT-detected ILA that fits criteria for asbestosis is common, but physiological decline is not. This mild chronic stable phenotype of asbestos-associated ILA contrasts with the traditionally accepted views that asbestosis requires high exposures.

Australia-wide cross-sectional survey of general practitioners' knowledge and practice of lung cancer screening.

BACKGROUND: Low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) screening can reduce lung cancer deaths in high-risk individuals, yet current Australian guidelines do not recommend screening. Little is known about current screening practices in Australia. AIM: To evaluate the proportion of general practitioners who report ordering lung cancer screening for their patients, identify factors associated with ordering lung cancer screening and assess general practitioners (GP) rationale for recommending screening and preference of composition of any future national targeted screening programme. METHODS: A survey was distributed to a nationally representative sample of 4000 Australian GP. The questionnaire included respondent demographics, self-reported screening practices, knowledge of screening recommendations, recent screening education, preference for recruitment methodologies for potential screening programmes and potential factors influencing the screening practices of GP. Two logistic regression models identified factors associated with self-reported chest X-ray (CXR) and LDCT screening within the past 12 months. RESULTS: A total of 323 GP completed the survey (participation rate 8.1%). Participants were mostly females (50.6%), from collective/group (79.1%) and metropolitan-based practices (73.5%). Despite the majority of responders understanding that screening is not recommended by Australian professional societies (71.2%), a substantial proportion of participants requested a CXR or LDCT screening (46.4% and 20.8% respectively). A variety of shared (GP reassurance, affordability of screening, believing screening is funded) and unique practice, educational and cognitive factors were associated with self-reported LDCT and CXR screening, with the strongest association being recent education about screening from radiology practices (odds ratio (aOR) for LDCT screening 10.4, P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: In Australia, lung cancer screening occurs outside a coordinated programme, and there is discordance between practice and national recommendations. This highlights an urgent need for clearer guidance from national and professional bodies.

Symptom Burden and Unmet Needs in Malignant Pleural Mesothelioma: Exploratory Analyses From the RESPECT-Meso Study.

OBJECTIVE: Malignant Pleural Mesothelioma (MPM) has a poor prognosis and high symptom burden. RESPECT-Meso was a multicenter randomized study examining the role of early specialist palliative care (SPC) on quality of life (QoL) with MPM. This is a post-hoc exploratory analysis of the symptom burden and unmet needs identified from RESPECT-Meso participants. METHODS: Exploratory analysis from 174 participants using the General Health Status (GHS) measure (from the EORTC QLQ-C30 QoL questionnaire) and 87 participants using validated assessment questionnaires in those randomized to SPC. Eligibility for the study included confirmed MPM with diagnosis <6 weeks prior, performance score (PS) 0 or 1, no significant physical or psychological comorbidity. Cox proportional hazards models were derived to examine for relationships with survival. Free text was assessed using content analysis, looking for common themes and words. RESULTS: Participants were predominantly male (79.9%), mean age 72.8 years, PS was 0 in 38%, 78% of MPM was epithelioid. At least 3 symptoms were reported in 69.8% of participants, including fatigue (81%), dyspnea (73.3%), pain (61.2%), weight loss (59.3%). Anxiety was reported by 54.7% of participants, 52.3% low mood and 48.8% anhedonia symptoms. After multivariable adjustment, only pain remained statistically significant with a hazard ratio (HR) 2.9 (95% CI 1.3-6.7; p = 0.01). For each 1 unit increase in GHS score, the HR for death was 0.987 (0.978-0.996; p = 0.006), indicating a worse reported QoL is related to shorter survival. Unmet needs were common: 25.9% wanted more information about their condition, 24.7% about their care and 21.2% about their treatment. 79.1% were concerned about the effect of their illness on family. CONCLUSION: There is a high symptom burden in mesothelioma despite good baseline performance status. A worse QoL is associated with a worse survival. Unmet needs are common, perhaps highlighting a need for improved communication and information sharing.

Pleural Plaques and the Risk of Lung Cancer in Asbestos-exposed Subjects.

Rationale: Asbestos exposure is associated with a dose-dependent risk of lung cancer. The association between lung cancer and the presence of pleural plaques remains controversial.Objectives: To define the relationship between pleural plaques and lung cancer risk.Methods: Subjects were from two cohorts: 1) crocidolite mine and mill workers and Wittenoom Township residents and 2) a mixed-asbestos-fiber, mixed-occupation group. All subjects underwent annual review since 1990, chest X-ray or low-dose computed tomography scan, and outcome linkage to national cancer and mortality registry data. Cox regression, with adjustment for age (as the underlying matching time variable), was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for lung cancer incidence by sex, tobacco smoking, asbestos exposure, presence of asbestosis, and pleural plaques.Measurements and Main Results: For all 4,240 subjects, mean age at follow up was 65.4 years, 3,486 (82.0%) were male, 1,315 (31.0%) had pleural plaques, and 1,353 (32.0%) had radiographic asbestosis. Overall, 3,042 (71.7%) were ever-smokers with mean tobacco exposure of 33 pack-years. In total, 200 lung cancers were recorded. Risk of lung cancer increased with cumulative exposure to cigarettes, asbestos, and presence of asbestosis. Pleural plaques did not confer any additional lung cancer risk in either cohort (cohort 1: HR, 1.03; 95% confidence interval, 0.64-1.67; P = 0.89; cohort 2: HR, 0.75; 95% confidence interval, 0.45-1.25; P = 0.28).Conclusions: The presence of pleural plaques on radiologic imaging does not confer additional increase in the risk of lung cancer. This result is consistent across two cohorts with differing asbestos fiber exposures and intensity.

Development and evaluation of a consumer information resource, including Patient Decision Aid, for lung cancer screening: a quasi-experimental study.

Lung cancer screening of high-risk individuals with computed tomography is a promising intervention to reduce lung cancer mortality. Patient Decision Aids (PtDAs) may assist eligible individuals assess the risks and benefits associated with screening. Screening preference is high among lower-risk, screening-ineligible individuals and strategies are needed to reduce screening demand among this group. We developed and evaluated a resource comprising a recruitment pamphlet combined with either a PtDA for screening-eligible individuals or an education pamphlet for screening-ineligible individuals. Quasi-experimental pre-post pamphlet exposure design. Ever-smokers aged 55-80 years attending hospital outpatient clinics were invited. Among screening-eligible participants, the assessed outcome was change in score on the Decisional Conflict Scale (DCS). Among screening-ineligible participants, the assessed outcomes were change in screening preference. In the study 51% (55/107) of invited individuals participated, with mean ± standard deviation age 66.9 ± 6.4 years, 53% (29/55) male, and 65% (36/55) eligible for screening. Median (interquartile range) DCS among screening-eligible participants reduced from 28.9 (22.7-45.3) pre-PtDA to 25 (1.6-29.7) post-PtDA (p < .001), but there was no significant change in the proportion that reached the accepted threshold for decisional certainty (DCS < 25, 10/36 [28%] pre-exposure vs. 14/36 [39%] post-exposure, p = .1). Screening preference among screening-ineligible individuals reduced after viewing the screening-ineligible brochure (pre-exposure median of "Prefer" to post-exposure median of "Unsure," p = .001). Our consumer information pamphlets about lung cancer screening may reduce decisional conflict and improve alignment of screening preference with eligibility.

Diagnosis of asbestos-related lung diseases.

INTRODUCTION: The diagnosis of lung disease in asbestos-exposed individuals is a process that not only requires a detailed occupational and tobacco smoking history, but the correlation with physical signs, appropriate imaging, detailed lung function assessment and histology/cytology when required. Worldwide, the total quantity of asbestos mined is static, having decreased dramatically in developed countries but increased in countries where there is no restriction on mining: for example, Russia, China, Brazil, and Kazakhstan. The predominant diagnostic challenge in most cases of possible asbestos-related disease is the significant interval between exposure and development of the disease. Also challenging is the estimation of an individual's risk of disease, not least because asbestos-induced malignancy can be rapidly fatal, and, in the case of lung cancer, early detection can lead to treatment with curative intent. Areas covered: Discussion of quantitative asbestos exposure estimation and risk assessment, selection of the most appropriate imaging modality and frequency of imaging. Expert commentary: Consideration of the future for asbestos-related lung disease includes screening those at highest risk particularly in relation to ongoing mining operations and the management of in-situ asbestos. In the future, screening programs designed with estimation of risk of malignancy, based on quantitative estimates of asbestos exposure, and smoking history are indicated.

Prediction modelling using routine clinical parameters to stratify survival in Malignant Pleural Mesothelioma patients undergoing cytoreductive surgery.

INTRODUCTION: Malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM) is an uncommon cancer with a poor prognosis and heterogeneous survival. Surgery for MPM is offered in some specialist centers to highly selected patients. A previously described classification and regression tree (CART) model stratified survival in unselected MPM patients using routinely collected clinical data. This study aimed to examine the performance of this CART model on a highly selected surgical population. METHODS: Data were collected from subjects undergoing cytoreductive surgery for MPM from specialist centers in Hyõgo, Japan, and Sydney, Australia, between 1991 and 2016. The CART model was applied using the combination of clinical variables to stratify subjects into risk groups (1 through 4); survival characteristics were then compared. RESULTS: Two hundred eighty-nine cases were included (205 from Australia, 84 from Japan). Overall median survival was 34.6 (interquartile range: 17.5-56.1) months; median age was 63.0 (interquartile range: 57.0-67.8) years, and 83.0% (n = 240) were male. There were no clinically meaningful differences between the two cohorts. Survival across the four risk groups was significantly different (p < 0.0001); the model stratified survival well with a Harrell's concordance statistic of 0.62 (95% confidence interval: 0.57-0.66) at 36 months. The group with the longest survival (median, 82.5 months) had: no weight loss, hemoglobin > 153 g/L and serum albumin > 43 g/L at time of referral to the surgical center. CONCLUSIONS: Using routinely available clinical variables, the CART model was able to stratify surgical patients into risk groups with statistically different survival characteristics with fair to good performance. Presence of weight loss, anemia, and low albumin should confer caution when considering surgical therapy for MPM.

Correlation of ultra-low dose chest CT findings with physiologic measures of asbestosis.

OBJECTIVES: The correlation between ultra low dose computed tomography (ULDCT)-detected parenchymal lung changes and pulmonary function abnormalities is not well described. This study aimed to determine the relationship between ULDCT-detected interstitial lung disease (ILD) and measures of pulmonary function in an asbestos-exposed population. METHODS: Two thoracic radiologists independently categorised prone ULDCT scans from 143 participants for ILD appearances as absent (score 0), probable (1) or definite (2) without knowledge of asbestos exposure or lung function. Pulmonary function measures included spirometry and diffusing capacity to carbon monoxide (DLCO). RESULTS: Participants were 92% male with a median age of 73.0 years. CT dose index volume was between 0.6 and 1.8 mGy. Probable or definite ILD was reported in 63 (44.1%) participants. Inter-observer agreement was good (k = 0.613, p < 0.001). There was a statistically significant correlation between the ILD score and both forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) and forced vital capacity (FVC) (r = -0.17, p = 0.04 and r = -0.20, p = 0.02). There was a strong correlation between ILD score and DLCO (r = -0.34, p < 0.0001). CONCLUSION: Changes consistent with ILD on ULDCT correlate well with corresponding reductions in gas transfer, similar to standard CT. In asbestos-exposed populations, ULDCT may be adequate to detect radiological changes consistent with asbestosis. KEY POINTS: • Interobserver agreement for the ILD score using prone ULDCT is good. • Prone ULDCT appearances of ILD correlate with changes in spirometric observations. • Prone ULDCT appearances of ILD correlate strongly with changes in gas transfer. • Prone ULDCT may provide sufficient radiological evidence to inform the diagnosis of asbestosis.

Ultra low dose CT screen-detected non-malignant incidental findings in the Western Australian Asbestos Review Programme.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Computed tomography (CT)-based studies of asbestos-exposed individuals report a high prevalence of lung cancer, but the utility of low dose CT (LDCT) to screen asbestos-exposed populations is not established. We aimed to describe the prevalence of indeterminate pulmonary nodules and incidental findings on chest LDCT of asbestos-exposed subjects in Western Australia. METHODS: A total of 906 subjects from the Western Australian Asbestos Review Programme underwent LDCT of the chest as part of regular annual review. An indeterminate (solid) nodule was defined as >50 mm3 and part-solid/non-solid nodules >5 mm. The presence of asbestos-related diseases was recorded with a standardized report. RESULTS: Subjects were mostly (81%) men with a median age of 70 years. Fifty-eight (6.5%) participants were current smokers, 511 (56.4%) ex-smokers and 325 (36.4%) never-smokers. One hundred and four indeterminate nodules were detected in 77 subjects (8.5%); of these, eight cases had confirmed lung cancer (0.88%). Eighty-seven subjects (9.6%) had incidental findings that required further investigation, 42 (4.6%) from lower airways inflammation. The majority of nodules were solid, 4-6 mm and more common with age. Five hundred and eighty (64%) subjects had pleural plaques, and 364 (40.2%) had evidence of interstitial lung disease. CONCLUSION: The prevalence of LDCT-detected indeterminate lung nodules in 906 individuals with significant asbestos exposure was 8.5%, lower than many other CT studies. Clinically important incidental findings were found in 9.4%, predominantly related to lower respiratory tract inflammation. LDCT appears to effectively describe asbestos-related diseases and is likely to be an acceptable modality to monitor asbestos-exposed individuals.

A Novel Clinical Prediction Model for Prognosis in Malignant Pleural Mesothelioma Using Decision Tree Analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM) is a rare cancer with a heterogeneous prognosis. Prognostic models are not widely utilized clinically. Classification and regression tree (CART) analysis examines the interaction of multiple variables with a given outcome. METHODS: Between 2005 and 2014, all cases with pathologically confirmed MPM had routinely available histological, clinical, and laboratory characteristics recorded. Classification and regression tree analysis was performed using 29 variables with 18-month survival as the dependent variable. Risk groups were refined according to survival and clinical characteristics. The model was then tested on an external international cohort. RESULTS: A total of 482 cases were included in the derivation cohort; the median survival was 12.6 months, and the median age was 69 years. The model defined four risk groups with clear survival differences (p < 0.0001). The strongest predictive variable was the presence of weight loss. The group with the best survival at 18 months (86.7% alive, median survival 34.0 months, termed risk group 1) had no weight loss, a hemoglobin level greater than 153 g/L, and a serum albumin level greater than 43 g/L. The group with the worst survival (0% alive, median survival 7.5 months, termed risk group 4d) had weight loss, a performance score of 0 or 1, and sarcomatoid histological characteristics. The C-statistic for the model was 0.761, and the sensitivity was 94.5%. Validation on 174 external cases confirmed the model's ability to discriminate between risk groups in an alternative data set with fair performance (C-statistic 0.68). CONCLUSIONS: We have developed and validated a simple, clinically relevant model to reliably discriminate patients at high and lower risk of death using routinely available variables from the time of diagnosis in unselected populations of patients with MPM.

The effects of pleural fluid drainage on respiratory function in mechanically ventilated patients after cardiac surgery.

BACKGROUND: Pleural effusions occur commonly after cardiac surgery and the effects of drainage on gas exchange in this population are not well established. We examined pulmonary function indices following drainage of pleural effusions in cardiac surgery patients. METHODS: We performed a retrospective study examining the effects of pleural fluid drainage on the lung function indices of patients recovering from cardiac surgery requiring mechanical ventilation for more than 7 days. We specifically analysed patients who had pleural fluid removed via an intercostal tube (ICT: drain group) compared with those of a control group (no effusion, no ICT). RESULTS: In the drain group, 52 ICTs were sited in 45 patients. The mean (SD) volume of fluid drained was 1180 (634) mL. Indices of oxygenation were significantly worse in the drain group compared with controls prior to drainage. The arterial oxygen tension (PaO2)/fractional inspired oxygen (FiO2) (P/F) ratio improved on day 1 after ICT placement (mean (SD), day 0: 31.01 (8.92) vs 37.18 (10.7); p<0.05) and both the P/F ratio and oxygenation index (OI: kPa/cm H2O=PaO2/mean airway pressure×FiO2) demonstrated sustained improvement to day 5 (P/F day 5: 39.85 (12.8); OI day 0: 2.88 (1.10) vs day 5: 4.06 (1.73); both p<0.01). The drain group patients were more likely to have an improved mode of ventilation on day 1 compared with controls (p=0.028). CONCLUSIONS: Pleural effusion after cardiac surgery may impair oxygenation. Drainage of pleural fluid is associated with a rapid and sustained improvement in oxygenation.

A multicentre non-blinded randomised controlled trial to assess the impact of regular early specialist symptom control treatment on quality of life in malignant mesothelioma (RESPECT-MESO): study protocol for a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Malignant pleural mesothelioma is an incurable cancer caused by exposure to asbestos. The United Kingdom has the highest death rate from mesothelioma in the world and this figure is increasing. Median survival is 8 to 12 months, and most patients have symptoms at diagnosis. The fittest patients may be offered chemotherapy with palliative intent. For patients not fit for systemic anticancer treatment, best supportive care remains the mainstay of management. A study from the United States examining advanced lung cancer showed that early specialist palliative care input improved patient health related quality of life and depression symptoms 12 weeks after diagnosis. While mesothelioma and advanced lung cancer share many symptoms and have a poor prognosis, oncology and palliative care services in the United Kingdom, and many other countries, vary considerably compared to the United States. The aim of this trial is to assess whether regular early symptom control treatment provided by palliative care specialists can improve health related quality of life in patients newly diagnosed with mesothelioma. METHODS: This multicentre study is an non-blinded, randomised controlled, parallel group trial. A total of 174 patients with a new diagnosis of malignant pleural mesothelioma will be minimised with a random element in a 1:1 ratio to receive either 4 weekly regular early specialist symptom control care, or standard care. The primary outcome is health related quality of life for patients at 12 weeks. Secondary outcomes include health related quality of life for patients at 24 weeks, carer health related quality of life at 12 and 24 weeks, patient and carer mood at 12 and 24 weeks, overall survival and analysis of healthcare utilisation and cost. DISCUSSION: Current practice in the United Kingdom is to involve specialist palliative care towards the final weeks or months of a life-limiting illness. This study aims to investigate whether early, regular specialist care input can result in significant health related quality of life gains for patients with mesothelioma and if this change in treatment model is cost-effective. The results will be widely applicable to many institutions and patients both in the United Kingdom and internationally. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current controlled trials ISRCTN18955704. Date ISRCTN assigned: 31 January 2014.

Postmortem findings of malignant pleural mesothelioma: a two-center study of 318 patients.

BACKGROUND: Malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM) is an incurable cancer with a rising incidence. MPM is often perceived as a locally invasive cancer, and the exact cause of death is poorly understood.This two-center study describes the anatomic features of patients with MPM at postmortem. METHODS: The Western Australia Mesothelioma Registry (Australia) and Coroner's Office reports from the Avon region (England) were interrogated for the postmortem records of confirmed mesothelioma cases. RESULTS: Postmortem records of 318 patients with pleural mesothelioma (169 from Western Australia and 149 from Avon) were identified. Most patients (91.5%) were men (mean age, 68.4 ± 11.5 years), and MPM was right-sided in 55.3%. Extrapleural dissemination of tumor was found in 87.7% of cases and lymph node involvement in 53.3%. Tumor dissemination in extra thoracicsites was common (55.4% of patients), and almost all organs were involved, including liver(31.9%), spleen (10.8%), thyroid (6.9%), and the brain (3.0%). Pulmonary emboli were found in 6% of cases and considered as directly contributing to death in 13 patients (4.1%). The precise cause of death could only be determined in 63 (19.8%) cases even after postmortem. The BMI was significantly lower in cases that had no identifiable anatomic cause of death at postmortem(18.8 ± 4.3 vs 21.0 ± 4.7, P = .034). CONCLUSIONS: In this largest, to our knowledge, postmortem series on MPM, extrathoracic dissemination of mesothelioma was common and often under recognized. No anatomic cause of death was identified in the majority of patients even at autopsy, raising the possibility of physiologic and metabolic causes of death.

Routine laboratory tests can predict in-hospital mortality in acute exacerbations of COPD.

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) has a rising global incidence and acute exacerbation of COPD (AECOPD) carries a high health-care economic burden. Classification and regression tree (CART) analysis is able to create decision trees to classify risk groups. We analysed routinely collected laboratory data to identify prognostic factors for inpatient mortality with AECOPD from our large district hospital. Data from 5,985 patients with 9,915 admissions for AECOPD over a 7-year period were examined. Randomly allocated training (n = 4,986) or validation (n = 4,929) data sets were developed and CART analysis was used to model the risk of all-cause death during admission. Inpatient mortality was 15.5%, mean age was 71.5 (±11.5) years, 56.2% were male, and mean length of stay was 9.2 (±12.2) days. Of 29 variables used, CART analysis identified three (serum albumin, urea, and arterial pCO(2)) to predict in-hospital mortality in five risk groups, with mortality ranging from 3.0 to 23.4%. C statistic indices were 0.734 and 0.701 on the training and validation sets, respectively, indicating good model performance. The highest-risk group (23.4% mortality) had serum urea >7.35 mmol/l, arterial pCO(2) >6.45 kPa, and normal serum albumin (>36.5 g/l). It is possible to develop clinically useful risk prediction models for mortality using laboratory data from the first 24 h of admission in AECOPD.

Up-regulation of the extrinsic coagulation pathway in acute asthma--a case study.

INTRODUCTION: In the normal airway, the hemostatic balance is antithrombotic and favors fibrinolysis. Acute asthma is associated with inflammatory cell infiltrate and plasma exudation in the airways. Postmortem specimens following status asthmaticus suggest a role for the activation of the extrinsic coagulation cascade and intraluminal fibrin formation. The authors report a chance observation of fibrin formation in the airways of a patient with moderate asthma 5 days before a severe exacerbation requiring hospital admission. METHODS: Alpha-2 macroglobulin, an index of plasma leakage, coagulation factors, and D-dimers were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) in hypertonic saline-induced sputum, as part of a study into airway repair in stable asthma. All subjects were required to have stable symptoms and measures of asthma prior to sampling. RESULTS: The subject's baseline forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV(1)) was 94% predicted and fraction of exhaled nitric oxide (FeNO) level was 30 ppb prior to sputum induction. Differential sputum cell count revealed an airways neutrophilia (neutrophils 81.1%, eosinophils 0.19%). D-dimers were 70-fold and 22-fold higher than the median value for patients with stable moderate and severe asthma, respectively. Plasma exudation was 42-fold higher than in stable moderate asthma, but on a par with levels found in severe stable asthma, and locally produced coagulation factors may therefore be involved. Levels of fibrinogen, plasminogen, plasminogen activator inhibitor (PAI)-1 and thrombin-activatable fibrinolysis inhibitor (TAFI) were all at least an order of magnitude higher than those seen in stable moderate or severe asthma. CONCLUSIONS: Acute exacerbation of moderate asthma appears to be associated with a shift to a profibrinogenic, possibly antifibrinolytic, environment in the airways.