Ranging patterns and factors associated with movement in free-roaming domestic dogs in urban Malawi.

Rabies is a neglected zoonotic disease that causes around 59,000 deaths per year globally. In Africa, rabies virus is mostly maintained in populations of free-roaming domestic dogs (FRDD) that are predominantly owned. Characterizing the roaming behavior of FRDD can provide relevant information to understand disease spread and inform prevention and control interventions. To estimate the home range (HR) of FRDD and identify predictors of HR size, we studied 168 dogs in seven different areas of Blantyre city, Malawi, tracking them with GPS collars for 1-4 days. The median core HR (HR50) of FRDD in Blantyre city was 0.2 ha (range: 0.08-3.95), while the median extended HR (HR95) was 2.14 ha (range: 0.52-23.19). Multivariable linear regression models were built to identify predictors of HR size. Males presented larger HR95 than females. Dogs living in houses with a higher number of adults had smaller HR95, while those living in houses with higher number of children had larger HR95. Animals that received products of animal origin in their diets had larger HR95, and only in the case of females, animals living in low-income areas had larger HR50 and HR95. In contrast, whether male dogs were castrated or not was not found to be associated with HR size. The results of this study may help inform rabies control and prevention interventions in Blantyre city, such as designing risk-based surveillance activities or rabies vaccination campaigns targeting certain FRDD subpopulations. Our findings can also be used in rabies awareness campaigns, particularly to illustrate the close relationship between children and their dogs.

Developing digital contact tracing tailored to haulage in East Africa to support COVID-19 surveillance: a protocol.

INTRODUCTION: At the peak of Uganda's first wave of SARS-CoV-2 in May 2020, one in three COVID-19 cases was linked to the haulage sector. This triggered a mandatory requirement for a negative PCR test result at all ports of entry and exit, resulting in significant delays as haulage drivers had to wait for 24-48 hours for results, which severely crippled the regional supply chain.To support public health and economic recovery, we aim to develop and test a mobile phone-based digital contact tracing (DCT) tool that both augments conventional contact tracing and also increases its speed and efficiency. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: To test the DCT tool, we will use a stratified sample of haulage driver journeys, stratified by route type (regional and local journeys).We will include at least 65% of the haulage driver journeys ~83 200 on the network through Uganda. This allows us to capture variations in user demographics and socioeconomic characteristics that could influence the use and adoption of the DCT tool. The developed DCT tool will include a mobile application and web interface to collate and intelligently process data, whose output will support decision-making, resource allocation and feed mathematical models that predict epidemic waves.The main expected result will be an open source-tested DCT tool tailored to haulage use in developing countries.This study will inform the safe deployment of DCT technologies needed for combatting pandemics in low-income countries. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This work has received ethics approval from the School of Public Health Higher Degrees, Research and Ethics Committee at Makerere University and The Uganda National Council for Science and Technology. This work will be disseminated through peer-reviewed publications, our websites https://project-thea.org/ and Github for the open source code https://github.com/project-thea/.

Latent class evaluation of the performance of serological tests for exposure to Brucella spp. in cattle, sheep, and goats in Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: Brucellosis is a neglected zoonosis endemic in many countries, including regions of sub-Saharan Africa. Evaluated diagnostic tools for the detection of exposure to Brucella spp. are important for disease surveillance and guiding prevention and control activities. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Bayesian latent class analysis was used to evaluate performance of the Rose Bengal plate test (RBT) and a competitive ELISA (cELISA) in detecting Brucella spp. exposure at the individual animal-level for cattle, sheep, and goats in Tanzania. Median posterior estimates of RBT sensitivity were: 0.779 (95% Bayesian credibility interval (BCI): 0.570-0.894), 0.893 (0.636-0.989), and 0.807 (0.575-0.966), and for cELISA were: 0.623 (0.443-0.790), 0.409 (0.241-0.644), and 0.561 (0.376-0.713), for cattle, sheep, and goats, respectively. Sensitivity BCIs were wide, with the widest for cELISA in sheep. RBT and cELISA median posterior estimates of specificity were high across species models: RBT ranged between 0.989 (0.980-0.998) and 0.995 (0.985-0.999), and cELISA between 0.984 (0.974-0.995) and 0.996 (0.988-1). Each species model generated seroprevalence estimates for two livestock subpopulations, pastoralist and non-pastoralist. Pastoralist seroprevalence estimates were: 0.063 (0.045-0.090), 0.033 (0.018-0.049), and 0.051 (0.034-0.076), for cattle, sheep, and goats, respectively. Non-pastoralist seroprevalence estimates were below 0.01 for all species models. Series and parallel diagnostic approaches were evaluated. Parallel outperformed a series approach. Median posterior estimates for parallel testing were ≥0.920 (0.760-0.986) for sensitivity and ≥0.973 (0.955-0.992) for specificity, for all species models. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings indicate that Brucella spp. surveillance in Tanzania using RBT and cELISA in parallel at the animal-level would give high test performance. There is a need to evaluate strategies for implementing parallel testing at the herd- and flock-level. Our findings can assist in generating robust Brucella spp. exposure estimates for livestock in Tanzania and wider sub-Saharan Africa. The adoption of locally evaluated robust diagnostic tests in setting-specific surveillance is an important step towards brucellosis prevention and control.

Using data-driven approaches to improve delivery of animal health care interventions for public health.

Rabies kills ∼60,000 people per year. Annual vaccination of at least 70% of dogs has been shown to eliminate rabies in both human and canine populations. However, delivery of large-scale mass dog vaccination campaigns remains a challenge in many rabies-endemic countries. In sub-Saharan Africa, where the vast majority of dogs are owned, mass vaccination campaigns have typically depended on a combination of static point (SP) and door-to-door (D2D) approaches since SP-only campaigns often fail to achieve 70% vaccination coverage. However, D2D approaches are expensive, labor-intensive, and logistically challenging, raising the need to develop approaches that increase attendance at SPs. Here, we report a real-time, data-driven approach to improve efficiency of an urban dog vaccination campaign. Historically, we vaccinated ∼35,000 dogs in Blantyre city, Malawi, every year over a 20-d period each year using combined fixed SP (FSP) and D2D approaches. To enhance cost effectiveness, we used our historical vaccination dataset to define the barriers to FSP attendance. Guided by these insights, we redesigned our vaccination campaign by increasing the number of FSPs and eliminating the expensive and labor-intensive D2D component. Combined with roaming SPs, whose locations were defined through the real-time analysis of vaccination coverage data, this approach resulted in the vaccination of near-identical numbers of dogs in only 11 d. This approach has the potential to act as a template for successful and sustainable future urban SP-only dog vaccination campaigns.

Implementation of a mass canine rabies vaccination campaign in both rural and urban regions in southern Malawi.

Rabies is a devastating zoonotic disease causing nearly 60,000 deaths globally each year. The disease causes Malawi an economic loss of 13 million USD and kills almost 500 people annually. Domestic dogs are the main reservoir for rabies and vaccinating over 70% of the dog population is the most efficient method to reduce its incidence in both humans and canines. However, achieving such coverages is often difficult and depend on many geospatial factors. Rural and pastoral regions are considered difficult to vaccinate efficiently due to low dog densities, and reports of campaigns spanning large areas containing vastly different communities are lacking. This study describes a mass canine vaccination campaign covering rural and urban regions in southern Malawi. The campaign achieved an average vaccination coverage of 83.4% across 3 districts, and vaccinated over 89,000 dogs through a combined static point and door-to-door effort. A dog population of 107,574 dogs was estimated (dog:human ratio of 1:23). The canine population was found to be almost completely owned (99.2%) and mostly kept for security purposes (82.7%). The dogs were mainly adults, males, and not neutered. Regression analysis identified education level and proportion of young dogs as the only factors influencing (positively and negatively, respectively) whether vaccination coverage over 70% was achieved in a region, independently of variables such as population density or poverty. A second regression analysis was performed predicting absolute vaccination coverage. While education level and the proportion of confined dogs were associated with positive vaccination coverage, higher proportions of young animals and female dogs were associated with a decrease in coverage. This study confirms the feasibility of homogeneously vaccinating over 70% of the dogs in a large area including rural and urban communities. These findings can inform the logistics of future campaigns and might be used as a template to facilitate high-number, high-coverage vaccination campaigns to other regions in sub-Saharan Africa.

Development of a high number, high coverage dog rabies vaccination programme in Sri Lanka.

BACKGROUND: Rabies is estimated to cause 59,000 deaths and economic losses of US$8.6 billion every year. Despite several years of rabies surveillance and awareness programmes, increased availability of post-exposure prophylaxis vaccinations and dog population control, the disease still remains prevalent in Sri Lanka. This study reports the roll-out of a high number, high coverage canine rabies vaccination campaign in Sri Lanka, providing estimates for the vaccination coverage achieved, analysing the local dog demographics, and identifying barriers of attendance to static vaccination clinics. METHODS: A mass dog vaccination campaign was undertaken in Negombo, Sri Lanka. The campaign was composed of static point and door-to-door vaccination stages, with a final survey of vaccination coverage. A large volume of data on the distribution, health, and signalment of vaccinated dogs was collected through a mobile phone application. A logistic regression model was developed to investigate which socio-spatial and dog-related factors influenced attendance of owners to static vaccination points. RESULTS: The campaign vaccinated over 7800 dogs achieving a vaccination coverage of 75.8%. A dog:human ratio of 1:17 was estimated. Most dogs were owned, and the dog population was mostly male, adult, and non-sterilized. Unawareness, unavailability and handling problems were the most common reasons given by owners to explain failure to attend a static vaccination point. The regression analysis showed that increasing distance to a static point, in addition to young age and poor health of the dog, were associated with a decrease in the likelihood of attendance to a static vaccination points. CONCLUSION: This study demonstrates the feasibility of high number, high coverage vaccination campaigns in Sri Lanka. The information on dog ecology and barriers of attendance to static point vaccination clinics will facilitate development of future vaccination campaigns.

Whole Genome Sequence Analysis Reveals Lower Diversity and Frequency of Acquired Antimicrobial Resistance (AMR) Genes in E. coli From Dairy Herds Compared With Human Isolates From the Same Region of Central Zambia.

Antibiotic treatment of sick dairy cattle is critical for the sustainability of this production system which is vital for food security and societal prosperity in many low and middle-income countries. Given the increasingly high levels of antibiotic resistance worldwide and the challenge this presents for the treatment of bacterial infections, the rational use of antibiotics in humans and animals has been emphatically recommended in the spirit of a "One Health" approach. The aim of this study was to characterize antimicrobial resistance (AMR) genes and their frequencies from whole genome sequences of Escherichia coli isolated from both dairy cattle and human patients in central Zambia. Whole genome sequences of E. coli isolates from dairy cattle (n = 224) and from patients at a local hospital (n = 73) were compared for the presence of acquired AMR genes. In addition we analyzed the publicly available genomes of 317 human E. coli isolates from over the wider African continent. Both acquired antibiotic resistance genes and phylogroups were identified from de novo assemblies and SNP based phylogenetic analyses were used to visualize the distribution of resistance genes in E. coli isolates from the two hosts. Greater acquired AMR gene diversity was detected in human compared to bovine E. coli isolates across multiple classes of antibiotics with particular resistance genes for extended-spectrum beta lactamases (ESBL), quinolones, macrolides and fosfomycin only detected in E. coli genomes of human origin. The striking difference was that the Zambian or wider African human isolates were significantly more likely to possess multiple acquired AMR genes compared to the Zambian dairy cattle isolates. The median number of resistance genes in the Zambian cattle cohort was 0 (0-1 interquartile range), while in the Zambian human and wider African cohorts the medians and interquartile ranges were 6 (4-9) and 6 (0-8), respectively. The lower frequency and reduced diversity of acquired AMR genes in the dairy cattle isolates is concordant with relatively limited antibiotic use that we have documented in this region, especially among smallholder farmers. The relatively distinct resistant profiles in the two host populations also indicates limited sharing of strains or genes.

One million dog vaccinations recorded on mHealth innovation used to direct teams in numerous rabies control campaigns.

BACKGROUND: Canine transmitted rabies kills an estimated 59,000 people annually, despite proven methods for elimination through mass dog vaccination. Challenges in directing and monitoring numerous remote vaccination teams across large geographic areas remain a significant barrier to the up-scaling of focal vaccination programmes to sub-national and national level. Smartphone technology (mHealth) is increasingly being used to enhance the coordination and efficiency of public health initiatives in developing countries, however examples of successful scaling beyond pilot implementation are rare. This study describes a smartphone app and website platform, "Mission Rabies App", used to co-ordinate rabies control activities at project sites in four continents to vaccinate over one million dogs. METHODS: Mission Rabies App made it possible to not only gather relevant campaign data from the field, but also to direct vaccination teams systematically in near real-time. The display of user-allocated boundaries on Google maps within data collection forms enabled a project manager to define each team's region of work, assess their output and assign subsequent areas to progressively vaccinate across a geographic area. This ability to monitor work and react to a rapidly changing situation has the potential to improve efficiency and coverage achieved, compared to regular project management structures, as well as enhancing capacity for data review and analysis from remote areas. The ability to plot the location of every vaccine administered facilitated engagement with stakeholders through transparent reporting, and has the potential to motivate politicians to support such activities. RESULTS: Since the system launched in September 2014, over 1.5 million data entries have been made to record dog vaccinations, rabies education classes and field surveys in 16 countries. Use of the system has increased year-on-year with adoption for mass dog vaccination campaigns at the India state level in Goa and national level in Haiti. CONCLUSIONS: Innovative approaches to rapidly scale mass dog vaccination programmes in a sustained and systematic fashion are urgently needed to achieve the WHO, OIE and FAO goal to eliminate canine-transmitted human deaths by 2030. The Mission Rabies App is an mHealth innovation which greatly reduces the logistical and managerial barriers to implementing large scale rabies control activities. Free access to the platform aims to support pilot campaigns to better structure and report on proof-of-concept initiatives, clearly presenting outcomes and opportunities for expansion. The functionalities of the Mission Rabies App may also be beneficial to other infectious disease interventions.

Risk Factors for Avian Influenza H9 Infection of Chickens in Live Bird Retail Stalls of Lahore District, Pakistan 2009-2010.

This study was conducted to identify risk factors associated with AIV infections in live bird retail stalls (LBRS) in Lahore District, Pakistan. A cross-sectional survey of LBRS was conducted from December 2009-February 2010 using two-stage cluster sampling based on probability proportional to size. A total of 280 oropharyngeal swab sample pools were collected from 1400 birds in 8 clusters and tested by qRT-PCR for the matrix (M) gene of type A influenza virus and HA gene subtypes H9, H5 and H7. Thirty-four (34) samples were positive for the M gene, of which 28 were also positive for H9. No sample was found positive for H5 or H7. Data for 36 potential risk factors, collected by questionnaire, were analyzed by survey-weighted logistic regression and prevalence odds ratios (OR) for associated risk factors were calculated. A final multivariable model identified three risk factors for H9 infection in LRBS, namely obtaining birds from mixed sources (OR 2.28, CI95%: 1.4-3.7), keeping birds outside cages (OR 3.10, CI95%: 1.4-7.0) and keeping chicken breeds other than broilers (OR 6.27, CI95%: 1.7-23.2). Sourcing birds from dealers/wholesalers, keeping birds inside cages and avoiding mixing different breeds in cages could reduce the risk of H9 infections in LRBS.

A rabies lesson improves rabies knowledge amongst primary school children in Zomba, Malawi.

Rabies is an important neglected disease, which kills around 59,000 people a year. Over a third of these deaths are in children less than 15 years of age. Almost all human rabies deaths in Africa and Asia are due to bites from infected dogs. Despite the high efficacy of current rabies vaccines, awareness about rabies preventive healthcare is often low in endemic areas. It is therefore common for educational initiatives to be conducted in conjunction with other rabies control activities such as mass dog vaccination, however there are few examples where the efficacy of education activities has been assessed. Here, primary school children in Zomba, Malawi, were given a lesson on rabies biology and preventive healthcare. Subsequently, a mass dog vaccination programme was delivered in the same region. Knowledge and attitudes towards rabies were assessed by a questionnaire before the lesson, immediately after the lesson and 9 weeks later to assess the impact the lesson had on school children's knowledge and attitudes. This assessment was also undertaken in children who were exposed to the mass dog vaccination programme but did not receive the lesson. Knowledge of rabies and how to be safe around dogs increased following the lesson (both p<0.001), and knowledge remained higher than baseline 9 weeks after the lesson (both p<0.001). Knowledge of rabies and how to be safe around dogs was greater amongst school children who had received the lesson compared to school children who had not received the lesson, but had been exposed to a rabies vaccination campaign in their community (both p<0.001) indicating that the lesson itself was critical in improving knowledge. In summary, we have shown that a short, focused classroom-based lesson on rabies can improve short and medium-term rabies knowledge and attitudes of Malawian schoolchildren.

Barriers of attendance to dog rabies static point vaccination clinics in Blantyre, Malawi.

Rabies is a devastating yet preventable disease that causes around 59,000 human deaths annually. Almost all human rabies cases are caused by bites from rabies-infected dogs. A large proportion of these cases occur in Sub Saharan Africa (SSA). Annual vaccination of at least 70% of the dog population is recommended by the World Health Organisation in order to eliminate rabies. However, achieving such high vaccination coverage has proven challenging, especially in low resource settings. Despite being logistically and economically more feasible than door-to-door approaches, static point (SP) vaccination campaigns often suffer from low attendance and therefore result in low vaccination coverage. Here, we investigated the barriers to attendance at SP offering free rabies vaccinations for dogs in Blantyre, Malawi. We analysed data for 22,924 dogs from a city-wide vaccination campaign in combination with GIS and household questionnaire data using multivariable logistic regression and distance estimation techniques. We found that distance plays a crucial role in SP attendance (i.e. for every km closer the odds of attending a SP point are 3.3 times higher) and that very few people are willing to travel more than 1.5 km to bring their dog for vaccination. Additionally, we found that dogs from areas with higher proportions of people living in poverty are more likely to be presented for vaccination (ORs 1.58-2.22). Furthermore, puppies (OR 0.26), pregnant or lactating female dogs (OR 0.60) are less likely to be presented for vaccination. Owners also reported that they did not attend an SP because they were not aware of the campaign (27%) or they could not handle their dog (19%). Our findings will inform the design of future rabies vaccination programmes in SSA which may lead to improved vaccination coverage achieved by SP alone.

Estimation of the impact of Fasciola hepatica infection on time taken for UK beef cattle to reach slaughter weight.

Fasciolosis is common in UK beef cattle, but it is unclear at what levels liver fluke burdens cause production losses. This study aimed to address these uncertainties by estimating the impact of liver fluke infection on UK beef cattle productivity and investigating the use of diagnostic tests in a quantitative manner. We built three linear regression models for slaughter age by weight and different measures of liver fluke status, while accounting for sex, breed, season, year and farm of origin. Data were sourced from Scotland's largest red meat abattoir throughout 2013 and 2014. Our Meat Hygiene Service model estimated that cattle classified as having liver fluke damage had on average 10 days greater slaughter age than animals with no evidence of fasciolosis. Our liver fibrosis model estimated that the increase in slaughter age was more severe for higher fibrosis scores. Similarly, our burden model showed an increase in slaughter age for animals with as few as 1 to 10 parasites found in their livers. Lastly, we used receiver operating characteristic curves to show that serum antibody ELISA, copro-antigen ELISA and faecal egg counting can be useful in distinguishing between animals with and without production limiting levels of fasciolosis.

Implications of the cattle trade network in Cameroon for regional disease prevention and control.

Movement of live animals is a major risk factor for the spread of livestock diseases and zoonotic infections. Understanding contact patterns is key to informing cost-effective surveillance and control strategies. In West and Central Africa some of the most rapid urbanization globally is expected to increase the demand for animal-source foods and the need for safer and more efficient animal production. Livestock trading points represent a strategic contact node in the dissemination of multiple pathogens. From October 2014 to May 2015 official transaction records were collected and a questionnaire-based survey was carried out in cattle markets throughout Western and Central-Northern Cameroon. The data were used to analyse the cattle trade network including a total of 127 livestock markets within Cameroon and five neighboring countries. This study explores for the first time the influence of animal trade on infectious disease spread in the region. The investigations showed that national borders do not present a barrier against pathogen dissemination and that non-neighbouring countries are epidemiologically connected, highlighting the importance of a regional approach to disease surveillance, prevention and control. Furthermore, these findings provide evidence for the benefit of strategic risk-based approaches for disease monitoring, surveillance and control, as well as for communication and training purposes through targeting key regions, highly connected livestock markets and central trading links.

Drivers of Live Cattle Price in the Livestock Trading System of Central Cameroon.

Livestock production and trade are critical for the food security and welfare of rural households in sub-Saharan Africa. In Cameroon, animal trade consists mainly of live cattle commercialized through livestock markets. Identifying the factors contributing to cattle price formation is critical for designing effective policies for sustainable production and for increasing food availability. In this study, we evaluated the influence of a range of individual- and market-level factors on the price of cattle that were sold in all transactions (n = 118,017) recorded over a 12-month period from 31 livestock markets in the main cattle production area of the country. An information-theoretic approach using a generalized additive mixed-effect model was implemented to select the best explanatory model as well as evaluate the robustness of the identified drivers and the predictive ability of the model. The age and gender of the cattle traded were consistently found to be important drivers of the price (p < 0.01). Also, strong, but complex, relationships were found between cattle prices and both local human and bovine population densities. Finally, the model highlighted a positive association between the number of incoming trading connections of a livestock market and the price of the traded live cattle (p < 0.01). Although our analysis did not account for factors informing on specific phenotypic traits nor breed characteristics of cattle traded, nearly 50% of the observed variation in live cattle prices was explained by the final model. Ultimately, our model gives a large scale overview of drivers of cattle price formation in Cameroon and to our knowledge is the first study of this scale in Central Africa. Our findings represent an important milestone in designing efficient and sustainable animal health management programme in Cameroon and ensure livelihood sustainability for rural households.

Evaluation of the Performance of Five Diagnostic Tests for Fasciola hepatica Infection in Naturally Infected Cattle Using a Bayesian No Gold Standard Approach.

The clinical and economic importance of fasciolosis has been recognised for centuries, yet diagnostic tests available for cattle are far from perfect. Test evaluation has mainly been carried out using gold standard approaches or under experimental settings, the limitations of which are well known. In this study, a Bayesian no gold standard approach was used to estimate the diagnostic sensitivity and specificity of five tests for fasciolosis in cattle. These included detailed liver necropsy including gall bladder egg count, faecal egg counting, a commercially available copro-antigen ELISA, an in-house serum excretory/secretory antibody ELISA and routine abattoir liver inspection. In total 619 cattle slaughtered at one of Scotland's biggest abattoirs were sampled, during three sampling periods spanning summer 2013, winter 2014 and autumn 2014. Test sensitivities and specificities were estimated using an extension of the Hui Walter no gold standard model, where estimates were allowed to vary between seasons if tests were a priori believed to perform differently for any reason. The results of this analysis provide novel information on the performance of these tests in a naturally infected cattle population and at different times of the year where different levels of acute or chronic infection are expected. Accurate estimates of sensitivity and specificity will allow for routine abattoir liver inspection to be used as a tool for monitoring the epidemiology of F. hepatica as well as evaluating herd health planning. Furthermore, the results provide evidence to suggest that the copro-antigen ELISA does not cross-react with Calicophoron daubneyi rumen fluke parasites, while the serum antibody ELISA does.

The Vaccination of 35,000 Dogs in 20 Working Days Using Combined Static Point and Door-to-Door Methods in Blantyre, Malawi.

An estimated 60,000 people die of rabies annually. The vast majority of cases of human rabies develop following a bite from an infected dog. Rabies can be controlled in both human and canine populations through widespread vaccination of dogs. Rabies is particularly problematic in Malawi, costing the country an estimated 13 million USD and 484 human deaths annually, with an increasing paediatric incidence in Blantyre City. Consequently, the aim of this study was to vaccinate a minimum of 75% of all the dogs within Blantyre city during a one month period. Blantyre's 25 administrative wards were divided into 204 working zones. For initial planning, a mean human:dog ratio from the literature enabled estimation of dog population size and dog surveys were then performed in 29 working zones in order to assess dog distribution by land type. Vaccination was conducted at static point stations at weekends, at a total of 44 sites, with each operating for an average of 1.3 days. On Monday to Wednesday, door-to-door vaccination sessions were undertaken in the areas surrounding the preceding static point stations. 23,442 dogs were vaccinated at static point stations and 11,774 dogs were vaccinated during door-to-door vaccinations. At the end of the 20 day vaccination programme, an assessment of vaccination coverage through door-to-door surveys found that of 10,919 dogs observed, 8,661 were vaccinated resulting in a vaccination coverage of 79.3% (95%CI 78.6-80.1%). The estimated human:dog ratio for Blantyre city was 18.1:1. Mobile technology facilitated the collection of data as well as efficient direction and coordination of vaccination teams in near real time. This study demonstrates the feasibility of vaccinating large numbers of dogs at a high vaccination coverage, over a short time period in a large African city.

Redefining the "carrier" state for foot-and-mouth disease from the dynamics of virus persistence in endemically affected cattle populations.

The foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) "carrier" state was defined by van Bekkum in 1959. It was based on the recovery of infectious virus 28 days or more post infection and has been a useful construct for experimental studies. Using historic data from 1,107 cattle, collected as part of a population based study of endemic FMD in 2000, we developed a mixed effects logistic regression model to predict the probability of recovering viable FMDV by probang and culture, conditional on the animal's age and time since last reported outbreak. We constructed a second set of models to predict the probability of an animal being probang positive given its antibody response in three common non-structural protein (NSP) ELISAs and its age. We argue that, in natural ecological settings, the current definition of a "carrier" fails to capture the dynamics of either persistence of the virus (as measured by recovery using probangs) or the uncertainty in transmission from such animals that the term implies. In these respects it is not particularly useful. We therefore propose the first predictive statistical models for identifying persistently infected cattle in an endemic setting that captures some of the dynamics of the probability of persistence. Furthermore, we provide a set of predictive tools to use alongside NSP ELISAs to help target persistently infected cattle.

Phylogenomic approaches to determine the zoonotic potential of Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) isolated from Zambian dairy cattle.

This study assessed the prevalence and zoonotic potential of Shiga toxin-producing Escherichia coli (STEC) sampled from 104 dairy units in the central region of Zambia and compared these with isolates from patients presenting with diarrhoea in the same region. A subset of 297 E. coli strains were sequenced allowing in silico analyses of phylo- and sero-groups. The majority of the bovine strains clustered in the B1 'commensal' phylogroup (67%) and included a diverse array of serogroups. 11% (41/371) of the isolates from Zambian dairy cattle contained Shiga toxin genes (stx) while none (0/73) of the human isolates were positive. While the toxicity of a subset of these isolates was demonstrated, none of the randomly selected STEC belonged to key serogroups associated with human disease and none encoded a type 3 secretion system synonymous with typical enterohaemorrhagic strains. Positive selection for E. coli O157:H7 across the farms identified only one positive isolate again indicating this serotype is rare in these animals. In summary, while Stx-encoding E. coli strains are common in this dairy population, the majority of these strains are unlikely to cause disease in humans. However, the threat remains of the emergence of strains virulent to humans from this reservoir.

Observations on the biology, epidemiology and economic relevance of rumen flukes (Paramphistomidae) in cattle kept in a temperate environment.

There is concern about the probable recent introduction, increased prevalence and potential economic impact of rumen fluke infection of United Kingdom cattle. A study of 339 cattle slaughtered in a Scottish red meat abattoir was undertaken with the aims of describing the prevalence and geographical distribution of rumen fluke infection, estimating its effect on production, and evaluating faecal egg counts (FECs) as a tool to diagnose infection in live animals and study the epidemiology of the disease. The overall proportion of cattle consigned to the abattoir from northern United Kingdom with rumen fluke infection in the forestomachs was 0.29. Rumen flukes were distributed predominantly in the cranial sac of the rumen and adjacent to the reticular groove. Overall, a mean of 213 and median of 44 rumen flukes was identified in the forestomachs of rumen fluke-positive cattle. The mean and median FECs of animals were 26.01 and 5.20 eggs per gram (epg), respectively. There was a significant difference between the mean FECs per rumen fluke of 0.08 and 0.13 epg during summer/autumn and winter sampling periods, respectively. The overall correlation between rumen fluke FECs and the number of flukes in the forestomach was high, albeit lower in the summer/autumn than in the winter period. The sensitivities of rumen fluke FECs for the identification of flukes in the forestomach during the summer/autumn and winter sampling periods were 0.65 and 0.85, respectively. These results will aid in the interpretation of rumen fluke FECs when monitoring cattle health and production and studying the parasite's epidemiology in a temperate environment, thereby informing rational, precise and sustainable disease control.

Scenario planning: The future of the cattle and sheep industries in Scotland and their resiliency to disease.

In this paper, we present a description of foresighting activities undertaken by EPIC, Scotland's Centre of Expertise on Animal Disease Outbreaks, to investigate the future uncertainty of animal health security in the Scottish sheep and cattle sectors. Using scenario planning methodologies, we explored four plausible but provocative long-term futures which identify dynamics underpinning the resilience of these agricultural sectors to animal disease. These scenarios highlight a number of important drivers that influence disease resilience: industry demographics, the role of government support and regulation and the capacity for technological innovation to support the industry to meet local and global market demand. Participants in the scenario planning exercises proposed creative, robust strategies that policy makers could consider implementing now to enhance disease control and industry resilience in multiple, uncertain futures. Using these participant-led strategies as a starting point, we offer ten key questions for policy makers and stakeholders to provoke further discussion about improving resiliency and disease preparedness. We conclude with a brief discussion of the value of scenario planning, not only for the development of futures which will inform disease contingency plans and improve industry resilience, but as a mechanism for dialogue and information sharing between stakeholders and government.