3D Computational Modeling of Blast Wave Transmission in Human Ear From External Ear to Cochlear Hair Cells: A Preliminary Study.

INTRODUCTION: Auditory disabilities like tinnitus and hearing loss caused by exposure to blast overpressures are prevalent among military service members and veterans. The high-pressure fluctuations of blast waves induce hearing loss by injuring the tympanic membrane, ossicular chain, or sensory hair cells in the cochlea. The basilar membrane (BM) and organ of Corti (OC) behavior inside the cochlea during blast remain understudied. A computational finite element (FE) model of the full human ear was used by Bradshaw et al. (2023) to predict the motion of middle and inner ear tissues during blast exposure using a 3-chambered cochlea with Reissner's membrane and the BM. The inclusion of the OC in a blast transmission model would improve the model's anatomy and provide valuable insight into the inner ear response to blast exposure. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This study developed a microscale FE model of the OC, including the OC sensory hair cells, membranes, and structural cells, connected to a macroscale model of the ear to form a comprehensive multiscale model of the human peripheral auditory system. There are 5 rows of hair cells in the model, each row containing 3 outer hair cells (OHCs) and the corresponding Deiters' cells and stereociliary hair bundles. BM displacement 16.75 mm from the base induced by a 31 kPa blast overpressure waveform was derived from the macroscale human ear model reported by Bradshaw et al. (2023) and applied as input to the center of the BM in the OC. The simulation was run for 2 ms as a structural analysis in ANSYS Mechanical. RESULTS: The FE model results reported the displacement and principal strain of the OHCs, reticular lamina, and stereociliary hair bundles during blast transmission. The movement of the BM caused the rest of the OC to deform significantly. The reticular lamina displacement and strain amplitudes were highest where it connected to the OHCs, indicating that injury to this part of the OC may be likely due to blast exposure. CONCLUSIONS: This microscale model is the first FE model of the OC to be connected to a macroscale model of the ear, forming a full multiscale ear model, and used to predict the OC's behavior under blast. Future work with this model will incorporate cochlear endolymphatic fluid, increase the number of OHC rows to 19 in total, and use the results of the model to reliably predict the sensorineural hearing loss resulting from blast exposure.

3D finite element modeling of earplug-induced occlusion effect in the human ear.

Poor utilization of earplugs among military personnel may be due to discomfort caused by the occlusion effect (OE). The OE occurs when an earplug occludes the ear canal, thereby changing bone conduction (BC) hearing and amplifying physiological noises from the wearer. There is a need to understand and reduce the OE in the human ear. A 3D finite element model of the human ear including a 3-chambered spiral cochlea was employed to simulate the OE caused by foam and aerogel earplugs. 90 dB sound pressure was applied at the ear canal entrance and BC sound was applied as vibration of the canal bony wall. The model reported the ear canal pressure and the displacements of the stapes footplate and cochlear basilar membrane with and without earplugs. Without BC stimulation, the foam earplug showed a greater pressure attenuation than the aerogel earplug. However, the foam earplug results were more affected by BC stimulation, with a maximum sound pressure increase of 34 dB, compared to the 21.0 dB increase with the aerogel earplug. The aerogel earplug's lower OE demonstrates its promise as an earplug material. Future work with this model will examine BC sound transmission in the cochlea.

3D Finite Element Model of Human Ear with 3-Chamber Spiral Cochlea for Blast Wave Transmission from the Ear Canal to Cochlea.

Blast-induced auditory trauma is a common injury in military service members and veterans that leads to hearing loss. While the inner ear response to blast exposure is difficult to characterize experimentally, computational models have advanced to predict blast wave transmission from the ear canal to the cochlea; however, published models have either straight or spiral cochlea with fluid-filled two chambers. In this paper, we report the recently developed 3D finite element (FE) model of the human ear mimicking the anatomical structure of the 3-chambered cochlea. The model consists of the ear canal, middle ear, and two and a half turns of the cochlea with three chambers separated by the Reissner's membrane (RM) and the basilar membrane (BM). The blast overpressure measured from human temporal bone experiments was applied at the ear canal entrance and the Fluent/Mechanical coupled fluid-structure interaction analysis was conducted in ANSYS software. The FE model-derived results include the pressure in the canal near the tympanic membrane (TM) and the intracochlear pressure at scala vestibuli, the TM displacement, and the stapes footplate (SFP) displacement, which were compared with experimentally measured data in human temporal bones. The validated model was used to predict the biomechanical response of the ear to blast overpressure: distributions of the maximum strain and stress within the TM, the BM displacement variation from the base to apex, and the energy flux or total energy entering the cochlea. The comparison of intracochlear pressure and BM displacement with those from the FE model of 2-chambered cochlea indicated that the 3-chamber cochlea model with the RM and scala media chamber improved our understanding of cochlea mechanics. This most comprehensive FE model of the human ear has shown its capability to predict the middle ear and cochlea responses to blast overpressure which will advance our understanding of auditory blast injury.

Correction: COVID-19 vaccination in Sindh Province, Pakistan: A modelling study of health impact and cost-effectiveness.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1003815.].

Three-Dimensional Finite Element Modeling of Blast Wave Transmission From the External Ear to a Spiral Cochlea.

Blast-induced injuries affect the health of veterans, in which the auditory system is often damaged, and blast-induced auditory damage to the cochlea is difficult to quantify. A recent study modeled blast overpressure (BOP) transmission throughout the ear utilizing a straight, two-chambered cochlea, but the spiral cochlea's response to blast exposure has yet to be investigated. In this study, we utilized a human ear finite element (FE) model with a spiraled, two-chambered cochlea to simulate the response of the anatomical structural cochlea to BOP exposure. The FE model included an ear canal, middle ear, and two and half turns of two-chambered cochlea and simulated a BOP from the ear canal entrance to the spiral cochlea in a transient analysis utilizing fluid-structure interfaces. The model's middle ear was validated with experimental pressure measurements from the outer and middle ear of human temporal bones. The results showed high stapes footplate (SFP) displacements up to 28.5 µm resulting in high intracochlear pressures and basilar membrane (BM) displacements up to 43.2 µm from a BOP input of 30.7 kPa. The cochlea's spiral shape caused asymmetric pressure distributions as high as 4 kPa across the cochlea's width and higher BM transverse motion than that observed in a similar straight cochlea model. The developed spiral cochlea model provides an advancement from the straight cochlea model to increase the understanding of cochlear mechanics during blast and progresses toward a model able to predict potential hearing loss after blast.

A 3D Printed Human Ear Model for Standardized Testing of Hearing Protection Devices to Blast Exposure.

Hypothesis: A 3D printed human temporal bone (TB) that is anatomically accurate would cost-effectively reproduce the responses observed in blast testing of human cadaveric TBs with and without passive hearing protection devices (HPDs). Background: HPDs have become critical personal protection equipment against auditory damage for service members. Acoustic test fixtures and human TBs have been used to test and develop HPDs; however, the lack of a cost-effective, standardized model impedes the improvement of HPDs. Methods: In this study, the 3D printed TB model was printed with flexible and rigid polymers and consisted of the ear canal, tympanic membrane (TM), ossicular chain, middle ear suspensory ligaments/muscle tendons, and middle ear cavity. The TM movement under acoustic stimulation was measured with laser Doppler vibrometry. The TB model was then exposed to blasts with or without HPDs and pressures at the ear canal entrance (P0) and near the TM in the ear canal (P1) were recorded. All results were compared with that measured in human TBs. Results: Results indicated that in the 3D printed TB, the attenuated peak pressures at P1 induced by HPDs ranged from 0.92 to 1.06 psi (170-171 dB) with blast peak pressures of 5.62-6.54 psi (186-187 dB) at P0, and measured results were within the mean and SD of published data. Vibrometry measurements also followed a similar trend as the published results. Conclusions: The 3D printed TB model accurately evaluated passive HPDs' protective function during blast and the potential for use as a model for acoustic transmission was investigated.

Stark choices: exploring health sector costs of policy responses to COVID-19 in low-income and middle-income countries.

OBJECTIVES: COVID-19 has altered health sector capacity in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). Cost data to inform evidence-based priority setting are urgently needed. Consequently, in this paper, we calculate the full economic health sector costs of COVID-19 clinical management in 79 LMICs under different epidemiological scenarios. METHODS: We used country-specific epidemiological projections from a dynamic transmission model to determine number of cases, hospitalisations and deaths over 1 year under four mitigation scenarios. We defined the health sector response for three base LMICs through guidelines and expert opinion. We calculated costs through local resource use and price data and extrapolated costs across 79 LMICs. Lastly, we compared cost estimates against gross domestic product (GDP) and total annual health expenditure in 76 LMICs. RESULTS: COVID-19 clinical management costs vary greatly by country, ranging between <0.1%-12% of GDP and 0.4%-223% of total annual health expenditure (excluding out-of-pocket payments). Without mitigation policies, COVID-19 clinical management costs per capita range from US$43.39 to US$75.57; in 22 of 76 LMICs, these costs would surpass total annual health expenditure. In a scenario of stringent social distancing, costs per capita fall to US$1.10-US$1.32. CONCLUSIONS: We present the first dataset of COVID-19 clinical management costs across LMICs. These costs can be used to inform decision-making on priority setting. Our results show that COVID-19 clinical management costs in LMICs are substantial, even in scenarios of moderate social distancing. Low-income countries are particularly vulnerable and some will struggle to cope with almost any epidemiological scenario. The choices facing LMICs are likely to remain stark and emergency financial support will be needed.

COVID-19 vaccination in Sindh Province, Pakistan: A modelling study of health impact and cost-effectiveness.

BACKGROUND: Multiple Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines appear to be safe and efficacious, but only high-income countries have the resources to procure sufficient vaccine doses for most of their eligible populations. The World Health Organization has published guidelines for vaccine prioritisation, but most vaccine impact projections have focused on high-income countries, and few incorporate economic considerations. To address this evidence gap, we projected the health and economic impact of different vaccination scenarios in Sindh Province, Pakistan (population: 48 million). METHODS AND FINDINGS: We fitted a compartmental transmission model to COVID-19 cases and deaths in Sindh from 30 April to 15 September 2020. We then projected cases, deaths, and hospitalisation outcomes over 10 years under different vaccine scenarios. Finally, we combined these projections with a detailed economic model to estimate incremental costs (from healthcare and partial societal perspectives), disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for each scenario. We project that 1 year of vaccine distribution, at delivery rates consistent with COVAX projections, using an infection-blocking vaccine at $3/dose with 70% efficacy and 2.5-year duration of protection is likely to avert around 0.9 (95% credible interval (CrI): 0.9, 1.0) million cases, 10.1 (95% CrI: 10.1, 10.3) thousand deaths, and 70.1 (95% CrI: 69.9, 70.6) thousand DALYs, with an ICER of $27.9 per DALY averted from the health system perspective. Under a broad range of alternative scenarios, we find that initially prioritising the older (65+) population generally prevents more deaths. However, unprioritised distribution has almost the same cost-effectiveness when considering all outcomes, and both prioritised and unprioritised programmes can be cost-effective for low per-dose costs. High vaccine prices ($10/dose), however, may not be cost-effective, depending on the specifics of vaccine performance, distribution programme, and future pandemic trends. The principal drivers of the health outcomes are the fitted values for the overall transmission scaling parameter and disease natural history parameters from other studies, particularly age-specific probabilities of infection and symptomatic disease, as well as social contact rates. Other parameters are investigated in sensitivity analyses. This study is limited by model approximations, available data, and future uncertainty. Because the model is a single-population compartmental model, detailed impacts of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as household isolation cannot be practically represented or evaluated in combination with vaccine programmes. Similarly, the model cannot consider prioritising groups like healthcare or other essential workers. The model is only fitted to the reported case and death data, which are incomplete and not disaggregated by, e.g., age. Finally, because the future impact and implementation cost of NPIs are uncertain, how these would interact with vaccination remains an open question. CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 vaccination can have a considerable health impact and is likely to be cost-effective if more optimistic vaccine scenarios apply. Preventing severe disease is an important contributor to this impact. However, the advantage of prioritising older, high-risk populations is smaller in generally younger populations. This reduction is especially true in populations with more past transmission, and if the vaccine is likely to further impede transmission rather than just disease. Those conditions are typical of many low- and middle-income countries.

Central and peripheral auditory abnormalities in chinchilla animal model of blast-injury.

Exposure to blast overpressure or high-intensity sound can cause injuries to the auditory system, which leads to hearing loss or tinnitus. In this study, we examined the involvement of peripheral auditory system (PAS), and central auditory system (CAS) changes after exposure to blast overpressure (15-25 psi) on Day 1 and additionally during 7 days of post blast time period in chinchillas. Auditory brainstem response (ABR), distortion product otoacoustic emission (DPOAE), and cochlear hair cell changes were measured or identified in post-blast period within 7 days to detect injuries in the PAS. In the CAS, changes in NMDAR1 (excitatory receptor) and GABAA (inhibitory receptor) as well as changes in serotonin (5-HT2A) and acetylcholine (AChR) receptors were examined in different brain regions: auditory cortex (AC), geniculate body (GB), inferior colliculus (IC) and amygdala by immunofluorescence staining. We observed the PAS abnormalities of increased ABR threshold and decreased DPOAE response in animals after blast exposure with hearing protection devices (e.g., earplug). Blast exposure also caused a reduction in both NMDAR1 and GABAA receptor levels in acute condition (post-blast or Day 1) in AC and IC, while serotonin and acetylcholine receptor levels displayed a biphasic response at Day 1 and Day 7 post-exposure. Results demonstrate that the earplug can protect the tympanic membrane and middle ear against structural damage, but the hearing level, cochlear outer hair cell, and the central auditory system (levels of excitatory and inhibitory neurotransmitter receptors) were only partially protected at the tested blast overpressure level. The findings in this study indicate that blast exposure can cause both peripheral and central auditory dysfunctions, and the central auditory response is independent of peripheral auditory damage. The CAS dysfunction is likely mediated by direct transmission of shockwaves in all the regions of central nervous system (CNS), including nerves and surrounding tissues along the auditory pathways. Hence, targeting central auditory neurotransmitter abnormalities may have a therapeutic benefit to attenuate blast-induced hearing loss and tinnitus.

Assessment of spatiotemporal gait parameters using a deep learning algorithm-based markerless motion capture system.

Spatiotemporal parameters can characterize the gait patterns of individuals, allowing assessment of their health status and detection of clinically meaningful changes in their gait. Video-based markerless motion capture is a user-friendly, inexpensive, and widely applicable technology that could reduce the barriers to measuring spatiotemporal gait parameters in clinical and more diverse settings. Two studies were performed to determine whether gait parameters measured using markerless motion capture demonstrate concurrent validity with those measured using marker-based motion capture and a pressure-sensitive gait mat. For the first study, thirty healthy young adults performed treadmill gait at self-selected speeds while marker-based motion capture and synchronized video data were recorded simultaneously. For the second study, twenty-five healthy young adults performed over-ground gait at self-selected speeds while footfalls were recorded using a gait mat and synchronized video data were recorded simultaneously. Kinematic heel-strike and toe-off gait events were used to identify the same gait cycles between systems. Nine spatiotemporal gait parameters were measured by each system and directly compared between systems. Measurements were compared using Bland-Altman methods, mean differences, Pearson correlation coefficients, and intraclass correlation coefficients. The results indicate that markerless measurements of spatiotemporal gait parameters have good to excellent agreement with marker-based motion capture and gait mat systems, except for stance time and double limb support time relative to both systems and stride width relative to the gait mat. These findings indicate that markerless motion capture can adequately measure spatiotemporal gait parameters of healthy young adults during treadmill and over-ground gait.

Prevention of Blast-induced Auditory Injury Using 3D Printed Helmet and Hearing Protection Device - A Preliminary Study on Biomechanical Modeling and Animal.

INTRODUCTION: Repeated blast exposures result in structural damage to the peripheral auditory system (PAS) and the central auditory system (CAS). However, it is difficult to differentiate injuries between two distinct pathways: the mechanical damage in the PAS caused by blast pressure waves transmitted through the ear and the damage in the CAS caused by blast wave impacts on the head or traumatic brain injury. This article reports a preliminary study using a 3D printed chinchilla "helmet" as a head protection device associated with the hearing protection devices (e.g., earplugs) to isolate the CAS damage from the PAS injuries under repeated blast exposures. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A finite element (FE) model of the chinchilla helmet was created based on micro-computed tomography images of a chinchilla skull and inputted into ANSYS for FE analysis on the helmet's protection against blast over pressure. The helmet was then 3D printed and used for animal experiments. Chinchillas were divided into four cases (ears open, with earplug only, with both earplug and helmet, and with helmet only) and exposed to three blasts at blast over pressure of 15 to 20 psi. Hearing function tests (e.g., auditory brainstem response) were performed before and after blast on Day 1 and Days 4 and 7 after blasts. RESULTS: The FE model simulation showed a significant reduction in intracranial stress with the helmet, and the animal results indicated that both earplug and helmet reduced the severity of blast-induced auditory injuries by approximately 20 dB but with different mechanisms. CONCLUSIONS: The biomechanical modeling and animal experiments demonstrated that this four-case study in chinchillas with helmet and hearing protection devices provides a novel methodology to investigate the blast-induced damage in the PAS and CAS.

3D Finite Element Modeling of Blast Wave Transmission from the External Ear to Cochlea.

As an organ that is sensitive to pressure changes, the ear is often damaged when a person is subjected to blast exposures resulting in hearing loss due to tissue damage in the middle ear and cochlea. While observation of middle ear damage is non-invasive, examining the damage to the cochlea is difficult to quantify. Previous works have modeled the cochlear response often when subjected to an acoustic pressure input, but the inner ear mechanics have rarely been studied when the ear is exposed to a blast wave. In this study we aim to develop a finite element (FE) model of the entire ear, particularly the cochlea, for predicting the blast wave transmission from the ear canal to cochlea. We utilized a FE model of the ear, which includes the ear canal, middle ear, and uncoiled two-chambered cochlea, to simulate the cochlear response to blast overpressure (BOP) at the entrance of the ear canal with ANSYS Mechanical and Fluent in a fluid-structure interface coupled analysis in the time domain. This model was developed based on previous middle and inner ear models, and the cochlea was remeshed to improve BOP simulation performance. The FE model was validated using experimentally measured blast pressure transduction from the ear canal to the middle ear and cochlea in human cadaveric temporal bones. Results from the FE model showed significant displacements of the tympanic membrane, middle ear ossicles, and basilar membrane (BM). The stapes footplate displacement was observed to be as high as 60 µm, far exceeding the displacement during normal acoustic stimulation, when the 30 kPa (4.35 psi, 183 dB (SPL), Sound Pressure Level) of BOP was applied at the ear canal entrance. The large stapes movement caused pressures in the cochlea to exceed the physiological pressure level [< 10 Pa, 120 dB (SPL)] at a peak of 49.9 kPa, and the BM displacement was on the order of microns with a maximum displacement of 26.4 µm. The FE model of the entire human ear developed in this study provides a computational tool for prediction of blast wave transmission from the ear canal to cochlea and the future applications for assisting the prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of blast-induced hearing loss.

The impact of Covid-19, associated behaviours and policies on the UK economy: A computable general equilibrium model.

We estimate the potential impact of COVID-19 on the United Kingdom economy, including direct disease effects, preventive public actions and associated policies. A sectoral, whole-economy macroeconomic model was linked to a population-wide epidemiological demographic model to assess the potential macroeconomic impact of COVID-19, together with policies to mitigate or suppress the pandemic by means of home quarantine, school closures, social distancing and accompanying business closures. Our simulations indicate that, assuming a clinical attack rate of 48% and a case fatality ratio of 1.5%, COVID-19 alone would impose a direct health-related economic burden of £39.6bn (1.73% of GDP) on the UK economy. Mitigation strategies imposed for 12 weeks reduce case fatalities by 29%, but the total cost to the economy is £308bn (13.5% of GDP); £66bn (2.9% of GDP) of which is attributable to labour lost from working parents during school closures, and £201bn (8.8% of GDP) of which is attributable to business closures. Suppressing the pandemic over a longer period of time may reduce deaths by 95%, but the total cost to the UK economy also increases to £668bn (29.2% of GDP), where £166bn (7.3% of GDP) is attributable to school closures and 502bn (21.9% of GDP) to business closures. Our analyses suggest Covid-19 has the potential to impose unprecedented economic costs on the UK economy, and whilst public actions are necessary to minimise mortality, the duration of school and business closures are key to determining the economic cost. The initial economic support package promised by the UK government may be proportionate to the costs of mitigating Covid-19, but without alternative measures to reduce the scale and duration of school and business closures, the economic support may be insufficient to compensate for longer term suppression of the pandemic which could generate an even greater health impact through major recession.

Will More of the Same Achieve Malaria Elimination? Results from an Integrated Macroeconomic Epidemiological Demographic Model.

Historic levels of funding have reduced the global burden of malaria in recent years. Questions remain, however, as to whether scaling up interventions, in parallel with economic growth, has made malaria elimination more likely today than previously. The consequences of "trying but failing" to eliminate malaria are also uncertain. Reduced malaria exposure decreases the acquisition of semi-immunity during childhood, a necessary phase of the immunological transition that occurs on the pathway to malaria elimination. During this transitional period, the risk of malaria resurgence increases as proportionately more individuals across all age-groups are less able to manage infections by immune response alone. We developed a robust model that integrates the effects of malaria transmission, demography, and macroeconomics in the context of Plasmodium falciparum malaria within a hyperendemic environment. We analyzed the potential for existing interventions, alongside economic development, to achieve malaria elimination. Simulation results indicate that a 2% increase in future economic growth will increase the US$5.1 billion cumulative economic burden of malaria in Ghana to US$7.2 billion, although increasing regional insecticide-treated net coverage rates by 25% will lower malaria reproduction numbers by just 9%, reduce population-wide morbidity by -0.1%, and reduce prevalence from 54% to 46% by 2034. As scaling up current malaria control tools, combined with economic growth, will be insufficient to interrupt malaria transmission in Ghana, high levels of malaria control should be maintained and investment in research and development should be increased to maintain the gains of the past decade and to minimize the risk of resurgence, as transmission drops.

Tuberculosis transmission across three states: The story of a solid organ donor born in an endemic country, 2018.

Transmission of tuberculosis (TB) from a deceased solid organ donor to recipients can result in severe morbidity and mortality. In 2018, four solid organ transplant recipients residing in three states but sharing a common organ donor were diagnosed with TB disease. Two recipients were hospitalized and none died. The organ donor was born in a country with a high incidence of TB and experienced 8 weeks of headache and fever prior to death, but was not tested for TB during multiple hospitalizations or prior to organ procurement. TB isolates of two organ recipients and a close contact of the donor had identical TB genotypes and closely related whole-genome sequencing results. Donors with risk factors for TB, in particular birth or residence in countries with a higher TB incidence, should be carefully evaluated for TB.

Integrating economic and health evidence to inform Covid-19 policy in low- and middle- income countries.

Covid-19 requires policy makers to consider evidence on both population health and economic welfare. Over the last two decades, the field of health economics has developed a range of analytical approaches and contributed to the institutionalisation of processes to employ economic evidence in health policy. We present a discussion outlining how these approaches and processes need to be applied more widely to inform Covid-19 policy; highlighting where they may need to be adapted conceptually and methodologically, and providing examples of work to date. We focus on the evidential and policy needs of low- and middle-income countries; where there is an urgent need for evidence to navigate the policy trade-offs between health and economic well-being posed by the Covid-19 pandemic.

International trade, dietary change, and cardiovascular disease health outcomes: Import tariff reform using an integrated macroeconomic, environmental and health modelling framework for Thailand.

United Nations (UN) member states have, since 2011, worked to address the emerging global NCD crisis, but progress has, so far, been insufficient. Food trade policy is recognised to have the potential to impact certain major diet-related health and environmental outcomes. We study the potential for using import tariff protection as a health and environmental policy instrument. Specifically, we apply a rigorous and consistent Macroeconomic-Environmental-Demographic-health (MED-health) simulation model framework to study fiscal food policy import tariffs and dietary change in Thailand over the future 20 year period 2016-2035. We find that the existing Thai tariff structure, by lowering imports, lowers agricultural Land Use Change (LUC)-related GHG emissions and protects against cholesterol-related cardiovascular disease (CVD). This confirms previous evidence that food trade, measured by import shares of food expenditures and caloric intakes, is correlated with unhealthy eating and adverse health outcomes among importing country populations. A continued drive towards tariff liberalization and economic efficiency in Thailand may therefore come at the expense of reduced health and environmental sustainability of food consumption and production systems. Due to large efficiency losses, the existing tariff structure is, however, not cost-effective as an environmental or health policy instrument. However, additional simulations confirm that stylized 30% food sector import tariffs generally improve nutritional, clinical health, demographic, and environmental indicators across the board. We also find that diet-related health improvements can go hand-in-hand with increased Saturated Fatty Acid (SFA) intakes. Despite limited cost-effectiveness, policy makers from Thailand and abroad, including WHO, would therefore be well advised to consider targeted fiscal food policy tariffs as a potential intervention to maintain combined health and environmental sustainability, and to reconsider the specification of WHO dietary guidelines with their focus on SFA intake (rather than composition of fatty acid intake) targets.

Evidence on the magnitude of the economic, health and population effects of palm cooking oil consumption: an integrated modelling approach with Thailand as a case study.

BACKGROUND: Palm oil's high yields, consequent low cost and highly versatile properties as a cooking oil and food ingredient have resulted in its thorough infiltration of the food sector in some countries. Longitudinal studies have associated palm oil's high saturated fatty acid content with non-communicable disease, but neither the economic or disease burdens have been assessed previously. METHODS: This novel palm oil-focussed disease burden assessment employs a fully integrated health, macroeconomic and demographic Computable General Equilibrium Model for Thailand with nine regional (urban/rural) households. Nutritional changes from food consumption are endogenously translated into health (myocardial infarction (MI) and stroke) and population outcomes and are fed back into the macroeconomic model as health and caregiver-related productive labour supply effects and healthcare costs to generate holistic 2016-2035 burden estimates. Model scenarios mirror the replacement of palm cooking oil with other dietary oils and are compared with simulated total Thai health and macroeconomic burdens for MI and stroke. RESULTS: Replacing consumption of palm cooking oil with other dietary oils could reduce MI/stroke incident cases by 8280/2639 and cumulative deaths by 4683/894 over 20 years, removing approximately 0.5% of the total Thai burden of MI/stroke. This palm cooking oil replacement would reduce consumption shares of saturated/monounsaturated fatty acids in Thai household consumption by 6.5%/3% and increase polyunsaturated fatty acid consumption shares by 14%, yielding a 1.74% decrease in the population-wide total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio after 20 years. The macroeconomic burden that would be removed is US$308mn, approximately 0.44% of the total burden of MI/stroke on Thailand's economy or 0.003% of cumulative 20-year GDP. Bangkok and Central region households benefit most from removal of disease burdens. CONCLUSIONS: Simulations indicate that consumption of palm cooking oil, rather than other dietary oils, imposes a negative health burden (MI and stroke) and associated economic burden on a high consuming country, such as Thailand. Integrated sectoral model frameworks to assess these burdens are possible, and burden estimates from our simulated direct replacement of palm cooking oil indicate that using these frameworks both for broader analyses of dietary palm oil use and total burden analyses of other diseases may also be beneficial.

Contributions of muscles and external forces to medial knee load reduction due to osteoarthritis braces.

BACKGROUND: Braces for medial knee osteoarthritis can reduce medial joint loads through a combination of three mechanisms: application of an external brace abduction moment, alteration of gait dynamics, and reduced activation of antagonistic muscles. Although the effect of knee bracing has been reported independently for each of these parameters, no previous study has quantified their relative contributions to reducing medial knee loads. METHODS: In this study, we used a detailed musculoskeletal model to investigate immediate changes in medial and lateral loads caused by two different knee braces: OA Assist and OA Adjuster 3 (DJO Global). Seventeen osteoarthritis subjects and eighteen healthy controls performed overground gait trials in unbraced and braced conditions. RESULTS: Across all subjects, bracing reduced medial loads by 0.1 to 0.3 times bodyweight (BW), or roughly 10%, and increased lateral loads by 0.03 to 0.2 BW. Changes in gait kinematics due to bracing were subtle, and had little effect on medial and lateral joint loads. The knee adduction moment was unaltered unless the brace moment was included in its computation. Only one muscle, biceps femoris, showed a significant change in EMG with bracing, but this did not contribute to altered peak medial contact loads. CONCLUSIONS: Knee braces reduced medial tibiofemoral loads primarily by applying a direct, and substantial, abduction moment to each subject's knee. To further enhance brace effectiveness, future brace designs should seek to enhance the magnitude of this unloader moment, and possibly exploit additional kinematic or neuromuscular gait modifications.

Palm oil and dietary change: Application of an integrated macroeconomic, environmental, demographic, and health modelling framework for Thailand.

Palm oil is a cooking oil and food ingredient in widespread use in the global food system. However, as a highly saturated fat, palm oil consumption has been associated with negative effects on cardiovascular health, while large scale oil palm production has been linked to deforestation. We construct an innovative fully integrated Macroeconomic-Environmental-Demographic-health (MED-health) model to undertake integrated health, environmental, and economic analyses of palm oil consumption and oil palm production in Thailand over the coming 20 years (2016-2035). In order to put a health and fiscal food policy perspective on policy priorities of future palm oil consumption growth, we model the implications of a 54% product-specific sales tax to achieve a halving of future energy intakes from palm cooking oil consumption. Total patient incidence and premature mortality from myocardial infarction and stroke decline by 0.03-0.16% and rural-urban equity in health and welfare improves in most regions. However, contrary to accepted wisdom, reduced oil palm production would not be environmentally beneficial in the Thailand case, since, once established, oil palms have favourable carbon sequestration characteristics compared to alternative uses of Thai cropland. The increased sales tax also provokes mixed economic impacts: While real GDP increases in a second-best Thai tax policy environment, relative consumption-to-investment price changes may reduce household welfare over extended periods unless accompanied by non-distortionary government compensation payments. Overall, our holistic approach demonstrates that product-specific fiscal food policy taxes may involve important trade-offs between nutrition, health, the economy, and the environment.