Morphological predictors of BRCA1 germline mutations in young women with breast cancer.

BACKGROUND: Knowing a young woman with newly diagnosed breast cancer has a germline BRCA1 mutation informs her clinical management and that of her relatives. We sought an optimal strategy for identifying carriers using family history, breast cancer morphology and hormone receptor status data. METHODS: We studied a population-based sample of 452 Australian women with invasive breast cancer diagnosed before age 40 years for whom we conducted extensive germline mutation testing (29 carried a BRCA1 mutation) and a systematic pathology review, and collected three-generational family history and tumour ER and PR status. Predictors of mutation status were identified using multiple logistic regression. Areas under receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves were estimated using five-fold stratified cross-validation. RESULTS: The probability of being a BRCA1 mutation carrier increased with number of selected histology features even after adjusting for family history and ER and PR status (P<0.0001). From the most parsimonious multivariate model, the odds ratio for being a carrier were: 9.7 (95% confidence interval: 2.6-47.0) for trabecular growth pattern (P=0.001); 7.8 (2.7-25.7) for mitotic index over 50 mitoses per 10 high-powered field (P=0.0003); and 2.7 (1.3-5.9) for each first-degree relative with breast cancer diagnosed before age 60 years (P=0.01).The area under the ROC curve was 0.87 (0.83-0.90). CONCLUSION: Pathology review, with attention to a few specific morphological features of invasive breast cancers, can identify almost all BRCA1 germline mutation carriers among women with early-onset breast cancer without taking into account family history.

Hyporesponsiveness to re-challenge dose following pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine at 12 months of age, a randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: To evaluate the immunological impact of the 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (23vPPS) at 12 months, for children who have received zero to three infant doses of seven-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV), on responses to a subsequent exposure to a small dose of 23vPPS (mPPS). METHODS: Five hundred and fifty-two Fijian infants were stratified by ethnicity and randomized into eight groups to receive zero, one, two, or three PCV doses at 14 weeks, six and 14 weeks, or six, ten, and 14 weeks. Within each group, half received 23vPPS at 12 months and all received mPPS at 17 months. Sera were taken prior and one month post-mPPS. FINDINGS: By 17 months, geometric mean antibody concentrations (GMC) to all 23 serotypes in 23vPPS were significantly higher in children who had received 23vPPS at 12 months compared to those who had not. Post-mPPS, children who had not received the 12 month 23vPPS had a significantly higher GMC for all PCV serotypes compared with those who had (each p<0.02). For the non-PCV serotypes, children who had not received the 12 month 23vPPS had significantly higher GMC for six of 16 non-PCV serotypes (7F, 9N, 12F, 19A, 22F, 33F) than those who did (each p<0.02). After adjusting for the pre-mPPS level, exposure to 23vPPS was associated with a lower response to mPPS for all serotypes (each p<0.001). INTERPRETATION: Despite higher antibody concentrations at 17 months in children who had received 23vPPS at 12 months, the response to a re-challenge was poor for all 23 serotypes compared to children who had not received the 12 month 23vPPS.

Sibship analysis of associations between SNP haplotypes and a continuous trait with application to mammographic density.

Haplotype-based association studies have been proposed as a powerful comprehensive approach to identify causal genetic variation underlying complex diseases. Data comparisons within families offer the additional advantage of dealing naturally with complex sources of noise, confounding and population stratification. Two problems encountered when investigating associations between haplotypes and a continuous trait using data from sibships are (i) the need to define within-sibship comparisons for sibships of size greater than two and (ii) the difficulty of resolving the joint distribution of haplotype pairs within sibships in the absence of parental genotypes. We therefore propose first a method of orthogonal transformation of both outcomes and exposures that allow the decomposition of between- and within-sibship regression effects when sibship size is greater than two. We conducted a simulation study, which confirmed analysis using all members of a sibship is statistically more powerful than methods based on cross-sectional analysis or using subsets of sib-pairs. Second, we propose a simple permutation approach to avoid errors of inference due to the within-sibship correlation of any errors in haplotype assignment. These methods were applied to investigate the association between mammographic density (MD), a continuously distributed and heritable risk factor for breast cancer, and single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and haplotypes from the VDR gene using data from a study of 430 twins and sisters. We found evidence of association between MD and a 4-SNP VDR haplotype. In conclusion, our proposed method retains the benefits of the between- and within-pair analysis for pairs of siblings and can be implemented in standard software.

Immunogenicity following one, two, or three doses of the 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine.

The aim was to identify an appropriate infant pneumococcal vaccination strategy for resource poor countries. Fijian infants received zero, one, two, or three doses of 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) in early infancy. Following three PCV doses, geometric mean concentration (GMC) to all seven serotypes were > or = 1.0 microg/mL, and >85% of children achieved antibody levels > or = 0.35 microg/mL at 18 weeks. Following two doses, GMC were lower for 6B, 14, and 23F, but higher for 19F compared with three doses. Following a single dose, significant responses were seen for all serotypes post-primary series compared with the unvaccinated. By 12 months, differences between two and three doses persisted for serotype 14 only. Although GMC following three doses are higher than after two doses, the differences were small. A single dose may offer some protection for most serotypes.

Hospitalized community-acquired pneumonia in the elderly: an Australian case-cohort study.

This study describes the epidemiology of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) in elderly Australians for the first time. Using a case-cohort design, cases with CAP were in-patients aged > or = 65 years with ICD-10-AM codes J10-J18 admitted over 2 years to two tertiary hospitals. The cohort sample was randomly selected from all hospital discharges, frequency-matched to cases by month. Logistic regression was used to estimate risk ratios for factors predicting CAP or associated mortality. A total of 4772 in-patients were studied. There were 1952 cases with CAP that represented 4% of all elderly admissions: mean length of stay was 9.0 days and 30-day mortality was 18%. Excluding chest radiograph, 520/1864 (28%) cases had no investigations performed. The strongest predictors of CAP were previous pneumonia, history of other respiratory disease, and aspiration. Intensive-care-unit admission, renal disease and increasing age were the strongest predictors of mortality, while influenza vaccination conferred protection. Hospitalization with CAP in the elderly is common, frequently fatal and a considerable burden to the Australian community. Investigation is ad hoc and management empirical. Influenza vaccination is associated with reduced mortality. Patient characteristics can predict risk of CAP and subsequent mortality.

Does smoking among friends explain apparent genetic effects on current smoking in adolescence and young adulthood?

We used data from a prospective cohort study of twins to investigate the influence of unmeasured genetic and measured and unmeasured environmental factors on the smoking behaviour of adolescents and young adults. Twins were surveyed in 1988 (aged 11-18 years), 1991, 1996 and 2004 with data from 1409, 1121, 732 and 758 pairs analysed from each survey wave, respectively. Questionnaires assessed the smoking behaviour of twins and the perceived smoking behaviour of friends and parents. Using a novel logistic regression analysis, we simultaneously modelled individual risk and excess concordance for current smoking as a function of zygosity, survey wave, parental smoking and peer smoking. Being concordant for having peers who smoked was a predictor of concordance for current smoking (P<0.001). After adjusting for peer smoking, monozygotic (MZ) pairs were no more alike than dizygotic pairs for current smoking at waves 2, 3 and 4. Genetic explanations are not needed to explain the greater concordance for current smoking among adult MZ pairs. However, if they are invoked, the role of genes may be due to indirect effects acting through the social environment. Smoking prevention efforts may benefit more by targeting social factors than attempting to identify genetic factors associated with smoking.

ICD-10 codes are a valid tool for identification of pneumonia in hospitalized patients aged > or = 65 years.

This study examines the validity of using ICD-10 codes to identify hospitalized pneumonia cases. Using a case-cohort design, subjects were randomly selected from monthly cohorts of patients aged > or = 65 years discharged from April 2000 to March 2002 from two large tertiary Australian hospitals. Cases had ICD-10-AM codes J10-J18 (pneumonia); the cohort sample was randomly selected from all discharges, frequency matched to cases by month. Codes were validated against three comparators: medical record notation of pneumonia, chest radiograph (CXR) report and both. Notation of pneumonia was determined for 5098/5101 eligible patients, and CXR reports reviewed for 3349/3464 (97%) patients with a CXR. Coding performed best against notation of pneumonia: kappa 0.95, sensitivity 97.8% (95% CI 97.1-98.3), specificity 96.9% (95% CI 96.2-97.5), positive predictive value (PPV) 96.2% (95% CI 95.4-97.0) and negative predictive value (NPV) 98.2% (95% CI 97.6-98.6). When medical record notation of pneumonia is used as the standard, ICD-10 codes are a valid method for retrospective ascertainment of hospitalized pneumonia cases and appear superior to use of complexes of symptoms and signs, or radiology reports.

COMT Val(158)Met and 5HTTLPR functional loci interact to predict persistence of anxiety across adolescence: results from the Victorian Adolescent Health Cohort Study.

We investigated whether a composite genetic factor, based on the combined actions of catechol-O-methyltransferase (COMT) (Val(158)Met) and serotonin transporter (5HTTLPR) (Long-Short) functional loci, has a greater capacity to predict persistence of anxiety across adolescence than either locus in isolation. Analyses were performed on DNA collected from 962 young Australians participating in an eight-wave longitudinal study of mental health and well-being (Victorian Adolescent Health Cohort Study). When the effects of each locus were examined separately, small dose-response reductions in the odds of reporting persisting generalized (free-floating) anxiety across adolescence were observed for the COMT Met(158) [odds ratio (OR) = 0.85, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.76-0.95, P = 0.004] and 5HTTLPR Short alleles (OR = 0.88, CI = 0.79-0.99, P = 0.033). There was no evidence for a dose-response interaction effect between loci. However, there was a double-recessive interaction effect in which the odds of reporting persisting generalized anxiety were more than twofold reduced (OR = 0.45, CI = 0.29-0.70, P < 0.001) among carriers homozygous for both the COMT Met(158) and the 5HTTLPR Short alleles (Met(158)Met + Short-Short) compared with the remaining cohort. The double-recessive effect remained after multivariate adjustment for a range of psychosocial predictors of anxiety. Exploratory stratified analyses suggested that genetic protection may be more pronounced under conditions of high stress (insecure attachments and sexual abuse), although strata differences did not reach statistical significance. By describing the interaction between genetic loci, it may be possible to describe composite genetic factors that have a more substantial impact on psychosocial development than individual loci alone, and in doing so, enhance understanding of the contribution of constitutional processes in mental health outcomes.

Childhood adiposity predicts adult-onset current asthma in females: a 25-yr prospective study.

Few data exist on associations between childhood adiposity and incident asthma in later life. The present authors examined the relationship between childhood body mass index (BMI) and incident asthma beginning in adolescence or in adult life. All subjects included in the study were participants in the Tasmanian Asthma Survey, a large population-based cohort study, and were asthma free at 7 yrs of age. Weight, height and lung function were measured at 7 yrs of age. Asthma status at 7 and 32 yrs of age was ascertained by questionnaire. Odds ratios were calculated for the association between childhood adiposity, expressed as "overweight" or as BMI z-score quartiles at 7 yrs of age, and asthma development after that age. In females, but not in males, there was a significant association between adiposity at 7 yrs of age and current asthma at 32 yrs of age that developed after the age of 21 yrs. The association was not explained by childhood lung function or age at menarche. There was no association between adiposity at 7 yrs of age and asthma that developed after that age and remitted at 32 yrs of age in either sex. Higher body mass index in nonasthmatic young females at 7 yrs of age predicts risk of current asthma developing in adult life.

Association between 5-HTTLPR genotypes and persisting patterns of anxiety and alcohol use: results from a 10-year longitudinal study of adolescent mental health.

The serotonin transporter gene (5-HTT) encodes a transmembrane protein that plays an important role in regulating serotonergic neurotransmission and related aspects of mood and behaviour. The short allele of a 44 bp insertion/deletion polymorphism (S-allele) within the promoter region of the 5-HTT gene (5-HTTLPR) confers lower transcriptional activity relative to the long allele (L-allele) and may act to modify the risk of serotonin-mediated outcomes such as anxiety and substance use behaviours. The purpose of this study was to determine whether (or not) 5-HTTLPR genotypes moderate known associations between attachment style and adolescent anxiety and alcohol use outcomes. Participants were drawn from an eight-wave study of the mental and behavioural health of a cohort of young Australians followed from 14 to 24 years of age (Victorian Adolescent Health Cohort Study, 1992 - present). No association was observed within low-risk attachment settings. However, within risk settings for heightened anxiety (ie, insecurely attached young people), the odds of persisting ruminative anxiety (worry) decreased with each additional copy of the S-allele (approximately 30% per allele: OR 0.77, 95% CI 0.62-0.97, P=0.029). Within risk settings for binge drinking (ie, securely attached young people), the odds of reporting persisting high-dose alcohol consumption (bingeing) decreased with each additional copy of the S-allele (approximately 35% per allele: OR 0.74, 95% CI 0.64-0.86, P<0.001). Our data suggest that the S-allele is likely to be important in psychosocial development, particularly in those settings that increase risk of anxiety and alcohol use problems.

Insulin resistance is a risk factor for progression to type 1 diabetes.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Glucose homeostasis is determined by an interplay between insulin secretion and insulin action. In type 1 diabetes, autoimmune destruction of pancreatic beta cells leads to impaired insulin secretion. However, the contribution of impaired insulin action (insulin resistance) to the development of type 1 diabetes has received little attention. We investigated whether insulin resistance was a risk factor for progression to type 1 diabetes. METHODS: Islet-antibody-positive first-degree relatives of type 1 diabetes probands were followed for 4.0 years (median). Insulin secretion was measured as first-phase insulin response (FPIR) to intravenous glucose. Insulin resistance was estimated by homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-R). We compared subjects who progressed (n=43) and subjects who did not progress (n=61) to diabetes, including 21 pairs matched for age, sex, islet antibodies and FPIR. RESULTS: Progressors had higher insulin resistance relative to insulin secretion at baseline (median HOMA-R : FPIR 0.033 vs 0.013, p<0.0001). According to Cox proportional hazards analysis, islet antibody number, FPIR, fasting plasma glucose, fasting serum insulin, HOMA-R and log(HOMA-R : FPIR) were each predictive of progression to diabetes. However, log(HOMA-R : FPIR) (hazard ratio 2.57 per doubling, p<0.001) was the only metabolic variable independently associated with progression. In the matched comparison, progressors had higher fasting glucose, fasting insulin, HOMA-R and HOMA-R : FPIR, both at baseline and during the follow-up pre-clinical phase. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Relatives positive for islet antibodies who progress most rapidly to diabetes have a subtle disturbance of insulin-glucose homeostasis years before the onset of symptoms, distinguished by greater insulin resistance for their level of insulin secretion. Taking steps to reduce this insulin resistance could therefore delay the development of type 1 diabetes.

A Markov model for sample size calculation and inference in vaccine cost-effectiveness studies.

Sample size and power formulae are derived for designing trials of vaccine cost-effectiveness in healthy working adults. When existing trials of influenza vaccine have presented sample size calculations, these have been based on vaccine effectiveness. A Markov model is introduced to account for non-independence of working days lost. Two effect sizes need to be specified, one for a reduction in the number of episodes of absence and the second for a reduction in the mean duration of episodes. The relative cost of vaccine provision is also incorporated. Applying the resulting formulae to published studies indicates that most were underpowered to detect any financial benefit. Moreover, biased estimates of variance have led to led to incorrect inference.

Impact of different criteria for defining hypopneas in the apnea-hypopnea index.

OBJECTIVES: To explore the effect of using different scoring criteria for hypopneas in the scoring of polysomnographic studies: (1) by estimating the level of agreement between apnea-hypopnea index (AHI) scores derived from different scoring methods, and (2) by examining the effect on the point prevalence of disease using different threshold values of the AHI. DESIGN: Retrospective analysis of 48 diagnostic polysomnographic records. SETTING: Tertiary-hospital sleep-disorders clinic. MEASUREMENTS: AHIs were derived from three different methods for scoring hypopneas. The hypopnea definitions used incorporated different combinations and threshold values of respiratory signal changes in addition to differences in the requirement for associated oxygen desaturation or arousal. The level of agreement between different scoring methods was assessed by constructing Bland-Altman plots and calculating intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs). kappa statistics were used to assess agreement between the different methods using varying thresholds of AHI to categorize sleep apnea (AHI > 5, AHI > 15, and AHI > 20). RESULTS: The random-effects ICC for the three methods was 0.89, suggesting that the different scoring methods tended to rank patients fairly consistently. However, the point prevalence of disease estimated by using different thresholds of AHI was found to vary depending on the method used to score sleep studies (kappa, 0.30 to 0.95). CONCLUSIONS: These findings have implications for case finding, population-prevalence estimates, and grading of disease severity for access to government-funded continuous positive airway pressure services. Guidelines for standardizing the measurement and reporting of sleep studies in clinical practice should be implemented.