Preoperative predictive model for acute kidney injury after elective cardiac surgery: a prospective multicenter cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Predictive models of acute kidney injury after cardiac surgery (CS-AKI) include emergency surgery and patients with hemodynamic instability. Our objective was to evaluate the performance of validated predictive models (Thakar and Demirjian) in elective cardiac surgery and to propose a better score in the case of poor performance. METHODS: A prospective, multicenter, observational study was designed. Data were collected from 942 patients undergoing cardiac surgery, after excluding emergency surgery and patients with an intra-aortic balloon pump. The main outcome measure was CS-AKI defined by the composite of requiring dialysis or doubling baseline creatinine values. RESULTS: Both models showed poor discrimination in elective surgery (Thakar's model, AUC=0.57, 95% CI: 0.50-0.64 and Demirjian's model, AUC=0.64, 95% CI: 0.58-0.71). We generated a new model whose significant independent predictors were: anemia, age, hypertension, obesity, congestive heart failure, previous cardiac surgery and type of surgery. It classifies patients with scores 0-3 as at low risk (<5%), patients with scores 4-7 as at medium risk (up to 15%), and patients with scores >8 as at high risk (>30%) of developing CS-AKI with a statistically significant correlation (P<0.001). Our model reflects acceptable discriminatory ability (AUC=0.72, 95% CI: 0.66-0.78) which is significantly better than Thakar and Demirjian's models (P<0.01). CONCLUSIONS: We developed a new simple predictive model of CS-AKI in elective surgery based on available preoperative information. Our new model is easy to calculate and can be an effective tool for communicating risk to patients and guiding decision-making in the perioperative period. The study requires external validation.

Perioperative hemoglobin area under the curve is an independent predictor of renal failure after cardiac surgery. Results from a Spanish multicenter retrospective cohort study.

Perioperative anemia is an important risk factor for cardiac surgery-associated acute kidney injury (CSA-AKI). Nonetheless, the severity of the anemia and the time in the perioperative period in which the hemoglobin level should be considered as a risk factor is conflicting. The present study introduces the concept of perioperative hemoglobin area under the curve (pHb-AUC) as a surrogate marker of the evolution of perioperative hemoglobin concentration. Through a retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data, we assessed this new variable as a risk factor for the development of acute kidney injury after cardiac surgery in 966 adult patients who underwent cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass, at twenty-three academic hospitals in Spain. Exclusion criteria were patients on renal replacement therapy, who needed a reoperation because of bleeding and/or with missing perioperative hemoglobin or creatinine values. Using a multivariate regression analysis, we found that a pHb-AUC <19 g/dL was an independent risk factor for CSA-AKI even after adjustment for intraoperative red blood cell transfusion (OR 1.41, p <0.05). It was also associated with mortality (OR 2.48, p <0.01) and prolonged hospital length of stay (4.67 ± 0.99 days, p <0.001).

External validation of predictive models for acute kidney injury following cardiac surgery: A prospective multicentre cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Four predictive models for acute kidney injury associated with cardiac surgery were developed by Demirjian in the United States in 2012. However, the usefulness of these models in clinical practice needs to be established in different populations independent of that used to develop the models. OBJECTIVES: Our aim was to evaluate the predictive performance of these models in a Spanish population. DESIGN: A multicentre, prospective observational study. DATA SOURCES: Twenty-three Spanish hospitals in 2012 and 2013. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: Of 1067 consecutive cardiac patients recruited for the study, 1014 patients remained suitable for the final analysis. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Dialysis therapy, and a composite outcome of either a doubling of the serum creatinine level or dialysis therapy, in the 2 weeks (or until discharge, if sooner) after cardiac surgery. RESULTS: Of the 1014 patients analysed, 34 (3.4%) required dialysis and 95 (9.4%) had either dialysis or doubled their serum creatinine level. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves of the two predictive models for dialysis therapy, which include either presurgical variables only, or combined presurgical and intrasurgical variables, were 0.79 and 0.80, respectively. The model for the composite endpoint that combined presurgical and intrasurgical variables showed better discriminatory ability than the model that included only presurgical variables: the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves were 0.76 and 0.70, respectively. All four models lacked calibration for their respective outcomes in our Spanish population. CONCLUSION: Overall, the lack of calibration of these models and the difficulty in using the models clinically because of the large number of variables limit their applicability.

Low doses of haloperidol combined with ondansetron are not effective for prophylaxis of postoperative nausea and vomiting in susceptible patients.

BACKGROUND: In this observational study we reviewed the efficacy and side effects of different antiemetic combinations used in our hospital for postoperative nausea and vomiting (PONV) prophylaxis in high-risk women undergoing highly emetogenic surgery. METHODS: After reviewing retrospectively the medical records of patients undergoing highly emetogenic elective surgeries under general anaesthesia, we selected 368 women whose Apfel risk score was ≥ 3 and receiving a combination of 2 antiemetics for PONV prophylaxis. We analysed the incidence of PONV at 2, 6, 12 and 24h after surgery, antiemetic rescue requirements, pattern of occurrence of PONV, side effects and level of sedation were also assessed. The main goal was complete response defined as no PONV within 24h after surgery. RESULTS: Ondansetron 4mg i.v. plus dexamethasone 8mg i.v. (O&Dex), haloperidol 1mg i.v. (O&Hal1), haloperidol 2mg i.v. (O&Hal2) or droperidol 1.25mg i.v. (O&Dro) were the combinations most frequently used. The complete response was better in groups O&Dex: 68.5% (CI: 58-78), O&Hal2: 64.1% (CI: 53-74) and O&Dro 63% (CI: 52-73) than in group O&Hal1: 41.3% (CI: 31-52) (p<0,01). Peak incidence of PONV occurred within the 2-6h period. The incidence of side effects was higher in group O&Hal2. CONCLUSION: In high risk patients for PONV who underwent highly emetogenic surgeries, the efficacy of low-dose haloperidol (1mg) in combination is limited. Higher doses (2mg) are more effective but its use is associated with a high incidence of side effects.