Shallow magmatic intrusion evolution below La Palma before and during the 2021 eruption.

La Palma, Canary Islands, underwent volcanic unrest which culminated in its largest historical eruption. We study this unrest along 2021 using Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) and a new improved interpretation methodology, comparing achieved results with the crustal structure. We reproduce the final phase of La Palma volcanic unrest, highligthing a shallow magma accumulation which begins about 3.5 months before the eruption in a crustal volume charactherized by low density and fractured rocks. Our modeling, together with our improved pictures of the crustal structure, allows us to explain the location and characteristics of the eruption and to detect failed eruption paths. These can be used to explain post-eruptive phenomena and hazards to the local population, such as detected gases anomalies in La Bombilla and Puerto Naos. Our results have implications for understanding volcanic activity in the Canaries and volcano monitoring elsewhere, helping to support decision-making and providing significant insights into urban and infrastructure planning in volcanic areas.

A free-geometry geodynamic modelling of surface gravity changes using Growth-dg software.

Globally there is abundant terrestrial surface gravity data used to study the time variation of gravity related to subsurface mass and density changes in different geological, geodynamical and geotechnical environments. We present here a tool for analysing existing and newly acquired, 4D gravity data, which creates new findings from its reuse. Our method calculates in an almost automatic way the possible sources of density change responsible for the observed gravity variations. The specifics of the new methodology are: use of a low number of observation points, relatively small source structures, low signal/noise ratio in the data, and a free 3D source geometry without initial hypothesis. The process is based on the non-linear adjustment of structures defined by aggregation of small cells corresponding to a 3D section of the sub-floor volume. This methodology is implemented in a software tool, named GROWTH-dg, which can be freely downloaded for immediate use, together with a user manual and application examples.

Detection of volcanic unrest onset in La Palma, Canary Islands, evolution and implications.

La Palma island is one of the highest potential risks in the volcanic archipelago of the Canaries and therefore it is important to carry out an in-depth study to define its state of unrest. This has been accomplished through the use of satellite radar observations and an original state-of-the-art interpretation technique. Here we show the detection of the onset of volcanic unrest on La Palma island, most likely decades before a potential eruption. We study its current evolution seeing the spatial and temporal changing nature of activity at this potentially dangerous volcano at unprecedented spatial resolutions and long time scales, providing insights into the dynamic nature of the associated volcanic hazard. The geodetic techniques employed here allow tracking of the fluid migration induced by magma injection at depth and identifying the existence of dislocation sources below Cumbre Vieja volcano which could be associated with a future flank failure. Therefore they should continue being monitored using these and other techniques. The results have implications for the monitoring of steep-sided volcanoes at oceanic islands.

Modeling the two- and three-dimensional displacement field in Lorca, Spain, subsidence and the global implications.

Land subsidence associated with overexploitation of aquifers is a hazard that commonly affects large areas worldwide. The Lorca area, located in southeast Spain, has undergone one of the highest subsidence rates in Europe as a direct consequence of long-term aquifer exploitation. Previous studies carried out on the region assumed that the ground deformation retrieved from satellite radar interferometry corresponds only to vertical displacement. Here we report, for the first time, the two- and three-dimensional displacement field over the study area using synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data from Sentinel-1A images and Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) observations. By modeling this displacement, we provide new insights on the spatial and temporal evolution of the subsidence processes and on the main governing mechanisms. Additionally, we also demonstrate the importance of knowing both the vertical and horizontal components of the displacement to properly characterize similar hazards. Based on these results, we propose some general guidelines for the sustainable management and monitoring of land subsidence related to anthropogenic activities.

Real Time Tracking of Magmatic Intrusions by means of Ground Deformation Modeling during Volcanic Crises.

Volcano observatories provide near real-time information and, ultimately, forecasts about volcano activity. For this reason, multiple physical and chemical parameters are continuously monitored. Here, we present a new method to efficiently estimate the location and evolution of magmatic sources based on a stream of real-time surface deformation data, such as High-Rate GPS, and a free-geometry magmatic source model. The tool allows tracking inflation and deflation sources in time, providing estimates of where a volcano might erupt, which is important in understanding an on-going crisis. We show a successful simulated application to the pre-eruptive period of May 2008, at Mount Etna (Italy). The proposed methodology is able to track the fast dynamics of the magma migration by inverting the real-time data within seconds. This general method is suitable for integration in any volcano observatory. The method provides first order unsupervised and realistic estimates of the locations of magmatic sources and of potential eruption sites, information that is especially important for civil protection purposes.