Population pharmacokinetics and exposure-response analyses of safety (ARIA-E and isolated ARIA-H) of lecanemab in subjects with early Alzheimer's disease.

Lecanemab (Leqembi®) was recently approved by health authorities in the United States, Japan, and China to treat early Alzheimer's disease (AD), including patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) or mild dementia due to Alzheimer's disease upon confirmation of amyloid beta pathology. Extensively and sparsely sampled PK profiles from 1619 AD subjects and 21,929 serum lecanemab observations from two phase I, one phase II, and one phase III studies were well characterized using a two-compartment model with first-order elimination. The final PK model quantified covariate effects of body weight and sex on clearance and central volume of distribution, ADA-positive status, and albumin on clearance, and of Japanese ethnicity on central and peripheral volumes of distribution. Exposure to lecanemab was comparable between two lecanemab-manufacturing processes. However, none of the identified covariates in the model had a clinically relevant impact on model-predicted lecanemab Cmax or AUC at steady state following 10 mg/kg bi-weekly. Importantly, age, a well-recognized risk factor for AD, was not found to significantly affect lecanemab PK. The incidence of ARIA-E as a function of lecanemab exposure was modeled using a logit function with data pooled from 2641 subjects from the phase II and phase III studies, in which a total of 177 incidences of ARIA-E were observed. The probability of ARIA-E was significantly correlated with model-predicted Cmax and predicted to be higher in subjects homozygous for APOE4. The incidence of isolated ARIA-H was not associated with lecanemab exposure and was similar between placebo and lecanemab-treated subjects.

Artificial Intelligence for Quantitative Modeling in Drug Discovery and Development: An Innovation and Quality Consortium Perspective on Use Cases and Best Practices.

Recent breakthroughs in artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) have ushered in a new era of possibilities across various scientific domains. One area where these advancements hold significant promise is model-informed drug discovery and development (MID3). To foster a wider adoption and acceptance of these advanced algorithms, the Innovation and Quality (IQ) Consortium initiated the AI/ML working group in 2021 with the aim of promoting their acceptance among the broader scientific community as well as by regulatory agencies. By drawing insights from workshops organized by the working group and attended by key stakeholders across the biopharma industry, academia, and regulatory agencies, this white paper provides a perspective from the IQ Consortium. The range of applications covered in this white paper encompass the following thematic topics: (i) AI/ML-enabled Analytics for Pharmacometrics and Quantitative Systems Pharmacology (QSP) Workflows; (ii) Explainable Artificial Intelligence and its Applications in Disease Progression Modeling; (iii) Natural Language Processing (NLP) in Quantitative Pharmacology Modeling; and (iv) AI/ML Utilization in Drug Discovery. Additionally, the paper offers a set of best practices to ensure an effective and responsible use of AI, including considering the context of use, explainability and generalizability of models, and having human-in-the-loop. We believe that embracing the transformative power of AI in quantitative modeling while adopting a set of good practices can unlock new opportunities for innovation, increase efficiency, and ultimately bring benefits to patients.

Population pharmacokinetics of molnupiravir in adults with COVID-19: Lack of clinically important exposure variation across individuals.

Effective antiviral treatments for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are needed to reduce the morbidity and mortality associated with severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection, particularly in patients with risk factors for severe disease. Molnupiravir (MK-4482, EIDD-2801) is an orally administered, ribonucleoside prodrug of ß-D-N4-hydroxycytidine (NHC) with submicromolar potency against SARS-CoV-2. A population pharmacokinetic (PopPK) analysis for molnupiravir exposure was conducted using 4202 NHC plasma concentrations collected in 1207 individuals from a phase I trial in healthy participants, a phase IIa trial in non-hospitalized participants with COVID-19, a phase II trial in hospitalized participants with COVID-19, and a phase II/III trial in non-hospitalized participants with COVID-19. Molnupiravir pharmacokinetics (PK) was best described by a two-compartment model with a transit-compartment absorption model and linear elimination. Molnupiravir apparent elimination clearance increased with body weight less-than-proportionally (power 0.412) and was estimated as 70.6 L/h in 80-kg individuals with a moderate interindividual variability (43.4% coefficient of variation). Additionally, effects of sex and body mass index on apparent central volume and food status and formulation on the absorption mean transit time were identified as statistically significant descriptors of variability in these PK parameters. However, none of the identified covariate effects caused clinically relevant changes in the area under the NHC concentration versus time curve between doses, the exposure metric most closely related to clinical response. Overall, the PopPK model indicates that molnupiravir can be administered in adults without dose adjustment based on age, sex, body size, food, and mild-to-moderate renal or mild hepatic impairment.

Factors Influencing COVID-19 Risk: Insights From Molnupiravir Exposure-Response Modeling of Clinical Outcomes.

Molnupiravir (MOV) is an oral antiviral for the treatment of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in outpatient settings. This analysis investigated the relationship between ß-D-N4-hydroxycytidine (NHC) pharmacokinetics and clinical outcomes in patients with mild to moderate COVID-19 in the phase III part of the randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled MOVe-OUT trial. Logistic regression models of the dependency of outcomes on exposures and covariates were constructed using a multistep process. Influential covariates were identified first using placebo arm data, followed by assessment of exposure-dependency in drug effect using data from both the placebo and MOV arms. The exposure-response (E-R) analysis included 1,313 participants; 630 received MOV and 683 received placebo. Baseline viral load, baseline disease severity, age, weight, viral clade, active cancer, and diabetes were identified as significant determinants of response using placebo data. Absolute measures of viral load on days 5 and 10 were strong on-treatment predictors of hospitalization. An additive area under the curve (AUC)-based maximum effect (Emax ) model with a fixed Hill coefficient of 1 best represented the exposure-dependency in drug effect and the AUC50 was estimated to be 19,900 nM hour. Patients at 800 mg achieved near maximal response, which was larger than for 200 or 400 mg. The final E-R model was externally validated and predicted that the relative reduction in hospitalization with MOV treatment would vary with patient characteristics and factors in the population. In conclusion, the E-R results support the MOV dose of 800 mg twice daily to treat COVID-19. Many patient characteristics and factors impacted outcomes beyond drug exposures.

Safety and Pharmacokinetics of Islatravir in Individuals with Severe Renal Insufficiency.

Islatravir (MK-8591) is a high-potency reverse transcriptase translocation inhibitor in development for the treatment of HIV-1 infection. Data from preclinical and clinical studies suggest that ~30% to 60% of islatravir is excreted renally and that islatravir is not a substrate of renal transporters. To assess the impact of renal impairment on the pharmacokinetics of islatravir, an open-label phase 1 trial was conducted with individuals with severe renal insufficiency (RI). A single dose of islatravir 60 mg was administered orally to individuals with severe RI (estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] <30 mL/min/1.73 m2) and to healthy individuals without renal impairment (matched control group; eGFR ≥90 mL/min/1.73 m2). Safety and tolerability were assessed, and blood samples were collected to measure the pharmacokinetics of islatravir and its major metabolite 4'-ethynyl-2-fluoro-2'deoxyinosine (M4) in plasma, as well as active islatravir-triphosphate (TP) in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs). Plasma islatravir and M4 area under the concentration-time curve from zero to infinity (AUC0-∞) were ~2-fold and ~5-fold higher, respectively, in participants with severe RI relative to controls, whereas islatravir-TP AUC0-∞ was ~1.5-fold higher in the RI group than in the control group. The half-lives of islatravir in plasma and islatravir-TP in PBMCs were longer in participants with severe RI than in controls. These findings are consistent with renal excretion playing a major role in islatravir elimination. A single oral dose of islatravir 60 mg was generally well tolerated. These data provide guidance regarding administration of islatravir in individuals with impaired renal function. (This study has been registered at ClinicalTrials.gov under registration no. NCT04303156.).

Mechanistic Modeling of a Novel Oncolytic Virus, V937, to Describe Viral Kinetic and Dynamic Processes Following Intratumoral and Intravenous Administration.

V937 is an investigational novel oncolytic non-genetically modified Kuykendall strain of Coxsackievirus A21 which is in clinical development for the treatment of advanced solid tumor malignancies. V937 infects and lyses tumor cells expressing the intercellular adhesion molecule I (ICAM-I) receptor. We integrated in vitro and in vivo data from six different preclinical studies to build a mechanistic model that allowed a quantitative analysis of the biological processes of V937 viral kinetics and dynamics, viral distribution to tumor, and anti-tumor response elicited by V937 in human xenograft models in immunodeficient mice following intratumoral and intravenous administration. Estimates of viral infection and replication which were calculated from in vitro experiments were successfully used to describe the tumor response in vivo under various experimental conditions. Despite the predicted high clearance rate of V937 in systemic circulation (t1/2 = 4.3 min), high viral replication was observed in immunodeficient mice which resulted in tumor shrinkage with both intratumoral and intravenous administration. The described framework represents a step towards the quantitative characterization of viral distribution, replication, and oncolytic effect of a novel oncolytic virus following intratumoral and intravenous administrations in the absence of an immune response. This model may further be expanded to integrate the role of the immune system on viral and tumor dynamics to support the clinical development of oncolytic viruses.

Exact Probability Landscapes of Stochastic Phenotype Switching in Feed-Forward Loops: Phase Diagrams of Multimodality.

Feed-forward loops (FFLs) are among the most ubiquitously found motifs of reaction networks in nature. However, little is known about their stochastic behavior and the variety of network phenotypes they can exhibit. In this study, we provide full characterizations of the properties of stochastic multimodality of FFLs, and how switching between different network phenotypes are controlled. We have computed the exact steady-state probability landscapes of all eight types of coherent and incoherent FFLs using the finite-butter Accurate Chemical Master Equation (ACME) algorithm, and quantified the exact topological features of their high-dimensional probability landscapes using persistent homology. Through analysis of the degree of multimodality for each of a set of 10,812 probability landscapes, where each landscape resides over 105-106 microstates, we have constructed comprehensive phase diagrams of all relevant behavior of FFL multimodality over broad ranges of input and regulation intensities, as well as different regimes of promoter binding dynamics. In addition, we have quantified the topological sensitivity of the multimodality of the landscapes to regulation intensities. Our results show that with slow binding and unbinding dynamics of transcription factor to promoter, FFLs exhibit strong stochastic behavior that is very different from what would be inferred from deterministic models. In addition, input intensity play major roles in the phenotypes of FFLs: At weak input intensity, FFL exhibit monomodality, but strong input intensity may result in up to 6 stable phenotypes. Furthermore, we found that gene duplication can enlarge stable regions of specific multimodalities and enrich the phenotypic diversity of FFL networks, providing means for cells toward better adaptation to changing environment. Our results are directly applicable to analysis of behavior of FFLs in biological processes such as stem cell differentiation and for design of synthetic networks when certain phenotypic behavior is desired.

Immune-viral dynamics modeling for SARS-CoV-2 drug development.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) global pandemic is caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) viral infection, which can lead to pneumonia, lung injury, and death in susceptible populations. Understanding viral dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 is critical for development of effective treatments. An Immune-Viral Dynamics Model (IVDM) is developed to describe SARS-CoV-2 viral dynamics and COVID-19 disease progression. A dataset of 60 individual patients with COVID-19 with clinical viral load (VL) and reported disease severity were assembled from literature. Viral infection and replication mechanisms of SARS-CoV-2, viral-induced cell death, and time-dependent immune response are incorporated in the model to describe the dynamics of viruses and immune response. Disease severity are tested as a covariate to model parameters. The IVDM was fitted to the data and parameters were estimated using the nonlinear mixed-effect model. The model can adequately describe individual viral dynamics profiles, with disease severity identified as a covariate on infected cell death rate. The modeling suggested that it takes about 32.6 days to reach 50% of maximum cell-based immunity. Simulations based on virtual populations suggested a typical mild case reaches VL limit of detection (LOD) by 13 days with no treatment, a moderate case by 17 days, and a severe case by 41 days. Simulations were used to explore hypothetical treatments with different initiation time, disease severity, and drug effects to demonstrate the usefulness of such modeling in informing decisions. Overall, the IVDM modeling and simulation platform enables simulations for viral dynamics and treatment efficacy and can be used to aid in clinical pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) and dose-efficacy response analysis for COVID-19 drug development.

Mechanistic basis of post-treatment control of SIV after anti-α4ß7 antibody therapy.

Treating macaques with an anti-α4ß7 antibody under the umbrella of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) during early SIV infection can lead to viral remission, with viral loads maintained at < 50 SIV RNA copies/ml after removal of all treatment in a subset of animals. Depletion of CD8+ lymphocytes in controllers resulted in transient recrudescence of viremia, suggesting that the combination of cART and anti-α4ß7 antibody treatment led to a state where ongoing immune responses kept the virus undetectable in the absence of treatment. A previous mathematical model of HIV infection and cART incorporates immune effector cell responses and exhibits the property of two different viral load set-points. While the lower set-point could correspond to the attainment of long-term viral remission, attaining the higher set-point may be the result of viral rebound. Here we expand that model to include possible mechanisms of action of an anti-α4ß7 antibody operating in these treated animals. We show that the model can fit the longitudinal viral load data from both IgG control and anti-α4ß7 antibody treated macaques, suggesting explanations for the viral control associated with cART and an anti-α4ß7 antibody treatment. This effective perturbation to the virus-host interaction can also explain observations in other nonhuman primate experiments in which cART and immunotherapy have led to post-treatment control or resetting of the viral load set-point. Interestingly, because the viral kinetics in the various treated animals differed-some animals exhibited large fluctuations in viral load after cART cessation-the model suggests that anti-α4ß7 treatment could act by different primary mechanisms in different animals and still lead to post-treatment viral control. This outcome is nonetheless in accordance with a model with two stable viral load set-points, in which therapy can perturb the system from one set-point to a lower one through different biological mechanisms.

Multivariate analysis reveals effect of glutathione-enriched inactive dry yeast on amino acids and volatile components of kiwi wine.

Principal component analysis (PCA) and partial least squares (PLS) regression were applied to investigate the effect of glutathione-enriched inactive dry yeast (g-IDY) on the amino acids and volatile components of kiwi wine. Results indicated that the addition of g-IDY had positive effect on most amino acids of kiwi wine, especially glutamine and glycine. In case of pure juice fermentation, the concentrations of ethyl decanoate, 2-methylbutyric acid, trans-2-nonenal and hexyl butyrate had notably positive correlation with the addition of g-IDY. PLS regression indicated that the amino acids were highly interrelated to the volatile compositions, and glycine had the strongest positive impact on the concentrations of esters and total volatile components. This might explain the similar effect of g-IDY on the amino acids and volatile components of kiwi wine. Besides, PLS regression showed that E-nose was a good method to predict volatile compositions of kiwi wine, especially esters.