National, regional, and global estimates of preterm birth in 2020, with trends from 2010: a systematic analysis.

BACKGROUND: Preterm birth is the leading cause of neonatal mortality and is associated with long-term physical, neurodevelopmental, and socioeconomic effects. This study updated national preterm birth rates and trends, plus novel estimates by gestational age subgroups, to inform progress towards global health goals and targets, and aimed to update country, regional, and global estimates of preterm birth for 2020 in addition to trends between 2010 and 2020. METHODS: We systematically searched population-based, nationally representative data on preterm birth from Jan 1, 2010, to Dec 31, 2020 and study data (26 March-14 April, 2021) for countries and areas with no national-level data. The analysis included 679 data points (86% nationally representative administrative data [582 of 679 data points]) from 103 countries and areas (62% of countries and areas having nationally representative administrative data [64 of 103 data points]). A Bayesian hierarchical regression was used for estimating country-level preterm rates, which incoporated country-specific intercepts, low birthweight as a covariate, non-linear time trends, and bias adjustments based on a data quality categorisation, and other indicators such as method of gestational age estimation. FINDINGS: An estimated 13·4 million (95% credible interval [CrI] 12·3-15·2 million) newborn babies were born preterm (<37 weeks) in 2020 (9·9% of all births [95% CrI 9·1-11·2]) compared with 13·8 million (12·7-15·5 million) in 2010 (9·8% of all births [9·0-11·0]) worldwide. The global annual rate of reduction was estimated at -0·14% from 2010 to 2020. In total, 55·6% of total livebirths are in southern Asia (26·8% [36 099 000 of 134 767 000]) and sub-Saharan Africa (28·7% [38 819 300 of 134 767 000]), yet these two regions accounted for approximately 65% (8 692 000 of 13 376 200) of all preterm births globally in 2020. Of the 33 countries and areas in the highest data quality category, none were in southern Asia or sub-Saharan Africa compared with 94% (30 of 32 countries) in high-income countries and areas. Worldwide from 2010 to 2020, approximately 15% of all preterm births occurred at less than 32 weeks of gestation, requiring more neonatal care (<28 weeks: 4·2%, 95% CI 3·1-5·0, 567 800 [410 200-663 200 newborn babies]); 28-32 weeks: 10·4% [9·5-10·6], 1 392 500 [1 274 800-1 422 600 newborn babies]). INTERPRETATION: There has been no measurable change in preterm birth rates over the last decade at global level. Despite increasing facility birth rates and substantial focus on routine health data systems, there remain many missed opportunities to improve preterm birth data. Gaps in national routine data for preterm birth are most marked in regions of southern Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, which also have the highest estimated burden of preterm births. Countries need to prioritise programmatic investments to prevent preterm birth and to ensure evidence-based quality care when preterm birth occurs. Investments in improving data quality are crucial so that preterm birth data can be improved and used for action and accountability processes. FUNDING: The Children's Investment Fund Foundation and the UNDP, United Nations Population Fund-UNICEF-WHO-World Bank Special Programme of Research, Development and Research Training in Human Reproduction.

Health service utilisation during the COVID-19 pandemic in sub-Saharan Africa in 2020: a multicountry empirical assessment with a focus on maternal, newborn and child health services.

INTRODUCTION: There are concerns about the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the continuation of essential health services in sub-Saharan Africa. Through the Countdown to 2030 for Women's, Children's and Adolescents' Health country collaborations, analysts from country and global public health institutions and ministries of health assessed the trends in selected services for maternal, newborn and child health, general service utilisation. METHODS: Monthly routine health facility data by district for the period 2017-2020 were compiled by 12 country teams and adjusted after extensive quality assessments. Mixed effects linear regressions were used to estimate the size of any change in service utilisation for each month from March to December 2020 and for the whole COVID-19 period in 2020. RESULTS: The completeness of reporting of health facilities was high in 2020 (median of 12 countries, 96% national and 91% of districts ≥90%), higher than in the preceding years and extreme outliers were few. The country median reduction in utilisation of nine health services for the whole period March-December 2020 was 3.9% (range: -8.2 to 2.4). The greatest reductions were observed for inpatient admissions (median=-17.0%) and outpatient admissions (median=-7.1%), while antenatal, delivery care and immunisation services generally had smaller reductions (median from -2% to -6%). Eastern African countries had greater reductions than those in West Africa, and rural districts were slightly more affected than urban districts. The greatest drop in services was observed for March-June 2020 for general services, when the response was strongest as measured by a stringency index. CONCLUSION: The district health facility reports provide a solid basis for trend assessment after extensive data quality assessment and adjustment. Even the modest negative impact on service utilisation observed in most countries will require major efforts, supported by the international partners, to maintain progress towards the SDG health targets by 2030.