Protocol for a nationwide case-control study of firearm violence prevention tactics and policies in K-12 schools.

BACKGROUND: Most U.S. K-12 schools have adopted safety tactics and policies like arming teachers and installing metal detectors, to address intentional school gun violence. However, there is minimal research on their effectiveness. Furthermore, sociodemographic factors may influence their implementation. Controlled studies are necessary to investigate their impact on gun violence and related disciplinary outcomes. OBJECTIVE: The paper outlines the protocol for a case-control study examining gun violence prevention policies in U.S. K-12 schools. The study aims to investigate if there is an association between the total number and type of specific safety tactics and policies and the occurrence of intentional shootings in K-12 public schools, student disciplinary outcomes, and if urbanicity, economic, and racial factors modify these associations. METHODS: We will create a nationally representative dataset for this study and ascertain a full census of case schools (schools that experienced intentional gunfire on the campus during school hours since 2015) through national school shooting databases. Matched control schools will be randomly selected from U.S. Department of Education's national database of all public schools. We will analyze 27 school safety strategies organized into seven key exposure groupings. RESULTS: Supported by the National Institutes for Child Health and Development (R01HD108027-01) and having received Institutional Review Board approval, our study is currently in the data collection phase. Our analytical plan will determine the association between the number and type of school safety tactics and policies with the occurrence of intentional shootings and suspensions and expulsions in a national sample of approximately 650 K-12 public schools. Additional analyses will investigate the effect modification of specific covariates. CONCLUSION: As the first national, controlled study, its results will provide novel and needed data on the effectiveness of school safety tactics and policies in preventing intentional shootings at K-12 public schools.

Optimizing Contingency Management with Reinforcement Learning.

Contingency Management (CM) is a psychological treatment that aims to change behavior with financial incentives. In substance use disorders (SUDs), deployment of CM has been enriched by longstanding discussions around the cost-effectiveness of prized-based and voucher-based approaches. In prize-based CM, participants earn draws to win prizes, including small incentives to reduce costs, and the number of draws escalates depending on the duration of maintenance of abstinence. In voucher-based CM, participants receive a predetermined voucher amount based on specific substance test results. While both types have enhanced treatment outcomes, there is room for improvement in their cost-effectiveness: the voucher-based system requires enduring financial investment; the prize-based system might sacrifice efficacy. Previous work in computational psychiatry of SUDs typically employs frameworks wherein participants make decisions to maximize their expected compensation. In contrast, we developed new frameworks that clinical decision-makers choose actions, CM structures, to reinforce the substance abstinence behavior of participants. We consider the choice of the voucher or prize to be a sequential decision, where there are two pivotal parameters: the prize probability for each draw and the escalation rule determining the number of draws. Recent advancements in Reinforcement Learning, more specifically, in off-policy evaluation, afforded techniques to estimate outcomes for different CM decision scenarios from observed clinical trial data. We searched CM schemas that maximized treatment outcomes with budget constraints. Using this framework, we analyzed data from the Clinical Trials Network to construct unbiased estimators on the effects of new CM schemas. Our results indicated that the optimal CM schema would be to strengthen reinforcement rapidly in the middle of the treatment course. Our estimated optimal CM policy improved treatment outcomes by 32% while maintaining costs. Our methods and results have broad applications in future clinical trial planning and translational investigations on the neurobiological basis of SUDs.

Differentiated service delivery framework for people with multidrug-resistant tuberculosis and HIV co-infection.

INTRODUCTION: For people living with HIV/AIDS, care is commonly delivered through Differentiated Service Delivery (DSD). Although people with multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) and HIV/AIDS experience severe treatment associated challenges, there is no DSD model to support their treatment. In this study, we defined patterns of medication adherence and characterized longitudinal barriers to inform development of an MDR-TB/HIV DSD framework. METHODS: Adults with MDR-TB and HIV initiating bedaquiline (BDQ) and receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, were enrolled and followed through the end of MDR-TB treatment. Electronic dose monitoring devices (EDM) measured BDQ and ART adherence. Longitudinal focus groups were conducted and transcripts analyzed thematically to describe discrete treatment stage-specific and cross-cutting treatment challenges. RESULTS: 283 participants were enrolled and followed through treatment completion (median 17.8 months [IQR 16.5-20.2]). Thirteen focus groups were conducted. Most participants (82.7%, 234/283) maintained high adherence (mean BDQ adherence 95.3%; mean ART adherence 85.5%), but an adherence-challenged subpopulation with <85% cumulative adherence (17.3%, 49/283) had significant declines in mean weekly BDQ adherence from 94.9% to 39.9% (p<0.0001) and mean weekly ART adherence from 83.9% to 26.6% (p<0.0001) over 6 months. Psychosocial, behavioral, and structural obstacles identified in qualitative data were associated with adherence deficits in discrete treatment stages, and identified potential stage specific interventions. CONCLUSION: A DSD framework for MDR-TB/HIV should intensify support for adherence-challenged subpopulations, provide multi-modal support for adherence across the treatment course and account for psychosocial, behavioral, and structural challenges linked to discrete treatment stages.

Rycal S48168 (ARM210) for RYR1-related myopathies: a phase one, open-label, dose-escalation trial.

Background: RYR1-related myopathies (RYR1-RM) are caused by pathogenic variants in the RYR1 gene which encodes the type 1 ryanodine receptor (RyR1). RyR1 is the sarcoplasmic reticulum (SR) calcium release channel that mediates excitation-contraction coupling in skeletal muscle. RyR1 sub-conductance, SR calcium leak, reduced RyR1 expression, and oxidative stress often contribute to RYR1-RM pathogenesis. Loss of RyR1-calstabin1 association, SR calcium leak, and increased RyR1 open probability were observed in 17 RYR1-RM patient skeletal muscle biopsies and improved following ex vivo treatment with Rycal compounds. Thus, we initiated a first-in-patient trial of Rycal S48168 (ARM210) in ambulatory adults with genetically confirmed RYR1-RM. Methods: Participants received 120 mg (n = 3) or 200 mg (n = 4) S48168 (ARM210) daily for 29 days. The primary endpoint was safety and tolerability. Exploratory endpoints included S48168 (ARM210) pharmacokinetics (PK), target engagement, motor function measure (MFM)-32, hand grip and pinch strength, timed functional tests, PROMIS fatigue scale, semi-quantitative physical exam strength measurements, and oxidative stress biomarkers. The trial was registered with clinicaltrials.gov (NCT04141670) and was conducted at the National Institutes of Health Clinical Center between October 28, 2019 and December 12, 2021. Findings: S48168 (ARM210) was well-tolerated, did not cause any serious adverse events, and exhibited a dose-dependent PK profile. Three of four participants who received the 200 mg/day dose reported improvements in PROMIS-fatigue at 28 days post-dosing, and also demonstrated improved proximal muscle strength on physical examination. Interpretation: S48168 (ARM210) demonstrated favorable safety, tolerability, and PK, in RYR1-RM affected individuals. Most participants who received 200 mg/day S48168 (ARM210) reported decreased fatigue, a key symptom of RYR1-RM. These results set the foundation for a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled proof of concept trial to determine efficacy of S48168 (ARM210) in RYR1-RM. Funding: NINDS and NINR Intramural Research Programs, NIH Clinical Center Bench to Bedside Award (2017-551673), ARMGO Pharma Inc., and its development partner Les Laboratoires Servier.

Immune Markers Are Associated With Asymptomatic Intracranial Large Artery Stenosis and Future Vascular Events in NOMAS.

BACKGROUND: Inflammation contributes to atherosclerosis but is incompletely characterized in intracranial large artery stenosis (ICAS). We hypothesized that immune markers would be associated with ICAS and modify the risk ICAS confers on future vascular events. METHODS: This study included a subsample of stroke-free participants in the prospective NOMAS (Northern Manhattan Study), who had blood samples analyzed with a 60-plex immunoassay (collected from 1993 to 2001) and ICAS assessment with time-of-flight magnetic resonance angiography (obtained from 2003 to 2008). We dichotomized ICAS as either ≥50% stenosis or not (including no ICAS). We ascertained post-magnetic resonance imaging vascular events. We used least absolute shrinkage and selection operator procedures to select immune markers independently associated with ICAS. Then, we grouped selected immune markers into a derived composite Z score. Using proportional odds regression, we quantified the association of the composite immune marker Z score, ICAS, and risk of vascular events. RESULTS: Among 1211 participants (mean age, 71±9 years; 59% women; 65% Hispanic participants), 8% had ≥50% ICAS. Using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression, we identified CXCL9 (C-X-C motif chemokine ligand 9), HGF (hepatocyte growth factor), resistin, SCF (stem cell factor), and VEGF-A(vascular endothelial growth factor A) to have the strongest positive relationships with ≥50% ICAS in fully adjusted models. Selected markers were used to derive a composite immune marker Z score. Over an average follow-up of 12 years, we found that each unit increase in immune marker Z scores was associated with an 8% (95% CI, 1.05-1.11), 11% (95% CI, 1.06-1.16), and 5% (95% CI, 1.01-1.09) increased hazard of death, vascular death, and any vascular event, respectively, in adjusted models. We did not find a significant interaction between immune marker Z scores and ICAS in their relationship with any longitudinal outcome. CONCLUSIONS: Among a diverse stroke-free population, selected serum immune markers were associated with ICAS and future vascular events. Further study is needed to better understand their role in the pathogenesis of ICAS and as a potential therapeutic target in stroke prevention.

The age-based digital divide in an increasingly digital world: A focus group investigation during the COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Previous research has identified numerous benefits of information and communication technology (ICT) on the well-being of older adults. However, it has been increasingly recognized that older adults do not necessarily catch up with the rapidly digitalized society, known as the 'age-based digital divide'. The progress of digitalization has been accelerated during the COVID-19 pandemic, which may have widened the digital divide. This study aimed to gain a better understanding of their living experience and concerns about digital exclusion during the pandemic. The perceptions of older adults in Hong Kong, a highly digitalized, metropolitan city, towards the digital age and its impact on their daily living during the COVID-19 pandemic were explored. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We conducted 12 focus group interviews with 77 community-dwelling older adults during the COVID-19 pandemic. Data were analyzed using thematic analysis, applying both organization, reduction, and refinement. RESULTS: Four themes were identified: 1) Diversified means to access community information; 2) Facilitated daily living through the usage of ICTs; 3) Concerns about age-related decline in function; and 4) Fear of digital exclusion and accelerated digitalization during the pandemic. The results indicate that ICT provided numerous benefits to the daily life of older adults, but our participants also expressed concerns about age-related losses and the fear of digital exclusion due to the ongoing digitalization of society. DISCUSSION AND IMPLICATIONS: Our findings indicated that older adults do not necessarily benefit from technological innovations, which are becoming more pervasive during the pandemic. To create age-friendly environments that cater to the needs of all members of society in the digital age, policymakers and service providers should provide diverse choices for older adults, rather than relying solely on one-size-fits-all technological solutions.

Sleep Duration Is Associated With Subclinical Carotid Plaque Burden.

BACKGROUND: Sleep duration is associated with stroke risk and is 1 of 8 essential components of cardiovascular health according to the American Heart Association. As stroke disproportionately burdens Black and Hispanic populations in the United States, we hypothesized that long and short sleep duration would be associated with greater subclinical carotid atherosclerosis, a precursor of stroke, in the racially and ethnically diverse NOMAS (Northern Manhattan Study). METHODS: NOMAS is a study of community-dwelling adults. Self-reported nightly sleep duration and daytime sleepiness were collected between 2006 and 2011. Carotid plaque presence, total plaque area, and intima-media thickness were measured by ultrasound between 1999 and 2008. Linear and logistic regression models examined the cross-sectional associations of sleep duration groups (primary exposure) or daytime sleepiness (secondary exposure) with measures of carotid atherosclerosis. Models adjusted for age, time between ultrasound and sleep data collection, sex, race and ethnicity, education, health insurance, smoking, alcohol use, physical activity, body mass index, hypertension, diabetes, hypercholesterolemia, and cardiac disease. RESULTS: The sample (n=1553) had a mean age of 64.7±8.5 years and was 61.9% female, 64.8% Hispanic, and 18.2% non-Hispanic Black. Of the sample, 55.6% had carotid plaque, 22.3% reported nightly short sleep (<7 hours), 66.6% intermediate sleep (≥7 and <9 hours), and 11.1% had long sleep (≥9 hours). Compared with intermediate sleep, long sleep was associated with greater odds of carotid plaque presence relative to plaque absence (odds ratio, 1.6 [95% CI, 1.1-2.4]) and larger total plaque area (odds ratio, 1.4 [95% CI, 1.0-1.9]) after full covariate adjustment. Short sleep and daytime sleepiness were not significantly associated with any carotid measures. CONCLUSIONS: The association between long sleep and subclinical carotid atherosclerosis may explain prior associations between long sleep and stroke.

Randomized double-blind personalized N-of-1 clinical trial to test the safety and potential efficacy of TJ-68 for treating muscle cramps in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS): study protocol for a TJ-68 trial.

INTRODUCTION/AIMS: Muscle cramps are a common and often disabling symptom in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), a devastating and incurable neurodegenerative disorder. To date, there are no medications specifically approved for the treatment of muscle cramps. Ameliorating muscle cramps in ALS may improve and sustain quality of life. A widely prescribed traditional Japanese (Kampo) medicine against muscle cramps, shakuyakukanzoto (TJ-68), has been studied in advanced liver disease, spinal stenosis, kidney failure, and diabetic neuropathy. The Japanese ALS Management Guideline mentions TJ-68 for difficult muscle cramps in ALS. Therefore, the rationale of our trial is to investigate the safety and effectiveness of TJ-68 in treating painful and disabling muscle cramps in people with ALS outside of Japan. Accordingly, we are conducting a randomized clinical trial to test the safety and efficacy of TJ-68 in participants with ALS reporting frequent muscle cramps using an innovative, personalized N-of-1 design. If successful, TJ-68 may be used for muscle cramps in a broader population of people with ALS. METHODS: This is a two-site, double-blind, randomized personalized N-of-1 early clinical trial with TJ-68. At least 22 participants with ALS and daily muscle cramps will receive drug or placebo for 2 weeks (one treatment period) followed by a 1-week washout in a four-period cross-over design. While the primary objective is to evaluate the safety of TJ-68, the study has 85% power to detect a one-point shift on the Visual Analog Scale for Muscle Cramps Affecting Overall Daily Activity of the Columbia Muscle Cramp Scale (MCS). Secondary outcomes include the full MCS score, a Cramp Diary, Clinical Global Impression of Changes, Goal Attainment Scale, quality of life scale and ALS functional rating scale-revised (ALSFRS-R). DISCUSSION: The study is underway. A personalized N-of-1 trial design is an efficient approach to testing medications that alleviate muscle cramps in rare disorders. If TJ-68 proves safe and efficacious then it may be used to treat cramps in ALS, and help to improve and sustain quality of life. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This clinical trial has been registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT04998305), 8/9/2021.

Testing Behavior Change Techniques to Increase Physical Activity in Middle-Aged and Older Adults: Protocol for a Randomized Personalized Trial Series.

BACKGROUND: Being physically active is critical to successful aging, but most middle-aged and older adults do not move enough. Research has shown that even small increases in activity can have a significant impact on risk reduction and improve quality of life. Some behavior change techniques (BCTs) can increase activity, but prior studies on their effectiveness have primarily tested them in between-subjects trials and in aggregate. These design approaches, while robust, fail to identify those BCTs most influential for a given individual. In contrast, a personalized, or N-of-1, trial design can assess a person's response to each specific intervention. OBJECTIVE: This study is designed to test the feasibility, acceptability, and preliminary effectiveness of a remotely delivered personalized behavioral intervention to increase low-intensity physical activity (ie, walking) in adults aged 45 to 75 years. METHODS: The intervention will be administered over 10 weeks, starting with a 2-week baseline period followed by 4 BCTs (goal-setting, self-monitoring, feedback, and action planning) delivered one at a time, each for 2 weeks. In total, 60 participants will be randomized post baseline to 1 of 24 intervention sequences. Physical activity will be continuously measured by a wearable activity tracker, and intervention components and outcome measures will be delivered and collected by email, SMS text messages, and surveys. The effect of the overall intervention on step counts relative to baseline will be examined using generalized linear mixed models with an autoregressive model that accounts for possible autocorrelation and linear trends for daily steps across time. Participant satisfaction with the study components and attitudes and opinions toward personalized trials will be measured at the intervention's conclusion. RESULTS: Pooled change in daily step count will be reported between baseline and individual BCTs and baseline versus overall intervention. Self-efficacy scores will be compared between baseline and individual BCTs and between baseline and the overall intervention. Mean and SD will be reported for survey measures (participant satisfaction with study components and attitudes and opinions toward personalized trials). CONCLUSIONS: Assessing the feasibility and acceptability of delivering a personalized, remote physical activity intervention for middle-aged and older adults will inform what steps will be needed to scale up to a fully powered and within-subjects experimental design remotely. Examining the effect of each BCT in isolation will allow for their unique impact to be assessed and support design of future behavioral interventions. In using a personalized trial design, the heterogeneity of individual responses for each BCT can be quantified and inform later National Institutes of Health stages of intervention development trials. TRIAL REGISTRATION: clinicaltrials.gov NCT04967313; https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04967313. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID): RR1-10.2196/43418.

Combining Transoral Nasopharyngeal Brush and Plasma Epstein-Barr Virus DNA in Detecting Locally Recurrent Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the sensitivities and specificities of Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) DNA in the detection of locally recurrent or persistent nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) through nasopharyngeal (NP) brush biopsy and plasma, respectively, and whether a combination of both would be superior to the individual tests. STUDY DESIGN: A case-control study was conducted from September 2016 to June 2022. SETTING: A multicentre study at 3 tertiary referral centers in Hong Kong was conducted by the Department of Otorhinolaryngology, Head and Neck Surgery, The Chinese University of Hong Kong. METHODS: Twenty-seven patients with biopsy-confirmed locally recurrent NPC were recruited as study subjects. Magnetic resonance imaging was performed to rule out regional recurrence. The control group consisted of 58 patients with a prior history of NPC who were now disease-free based on endoscopic and imaging findings. Patients underwent both the transoral NP brush (NP Screen®) and blood for plasma Epstein-Barr DNA levels. RESULTS: The sensitivity and specificity of the combined modalities were 84.62% and 85.19%, respectively. The positive predictive value was 73.33% and the negative predictive value was 92.0%. CONCLUSION: The combination of NP brush biopsy and plasma EBV DNA is potentially an additional surveillance modality in detecting the local recurrence of NPC. Further study with a larger sample size would be required to validate the cutoff values.

Association of a primary care-based mobile food pantry with child body mass index: A propensity score matched cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To test the hypothesis that children in Food FARMacia-a six-month food insecurity intervention from May 2019 to January 2020-would have smaller age-adjusted, sex-specific body mass index (BMIz) gains than matched counterparts. METHODS: In this proof-of-concept study, we performed a difference-in-differences (DiD) analysis of a propensity-score matched cohort among paediatric primary care patients aged <6 years with household food insecurity. Children with anthropometric measures prior to and after intervention started were included. The main outcome was child BMIz from standardized clinical anthropometric measurements. We examined differences in child BMIz change between Food FARMacia participants and matched non-participants. RESULTS: Among 454 children with household food insecurity, 265 were included, 44 of whom were in Food FARMacia. Mean child age was 1.48 (SD 1.46) years and most reported Hispanic/Latino ethnicity (84.5%). After propensity score matching, children in Food FARMacia had smaller increases in BMIz (unadjusted DiD -0.28 [-0.52, -0.04]) compared to non-participants in the follow-up period. After adjusting for potential confounders, findings remained statistically significant [adjusted DiD, -0.31 units (95% CI: -0.54, -0.08)]. CONCLUSIONS: In this proof-of-concept cohort study of children in households with food insecurity, a paediatric primary care-based mobile food pantry program was associated with improvement in child BMIz over 6 months.

Perception of extreme hot weather and the corresponding adaptations among older adults and service providers-A qualitative study in Hong Kong.

Background: Extreme hot weather events are happening with increasing frequency, intensity and duration in Hong Kong. Heat stress is related to higher risk of mortality and morbidity, with older adults being particularly vulnerable. It is not clear whether and how the older adults perceive the increasingly hot weather as a health threat, and whether community service providers are aware and prepared for such future climate scenario. Methods: We conducted semi-structure interviews with 46 older adults, 18 staff members of community service providers and two district councilors of Tai Po, a north-eastern residential district of Hong Kong. Transcribed data were analyzed using thematic analysis until data saturation was reached. Results: It was agreed upon among the older adult participants that the weather in recent years has become increasingly hot and this led to some health and social problems for them, although some participants perceived that hot weather did not have any impact in their daily lives and they were not vulnerable. The community service providers and district councilors reported that there is a lack of relevant services in the community to support the older adults in hot weather; and there is generally a lack of public education regarding the heat-health issue. Conclusions: Heatwaves are affecting older adults' health in Hong Kong. Yet, discussions and education effort regarding the heat-health issue in the public domain remain scarce. Multilateral efforts are urgently needed to co-create a heat action plan to improve community awareness and resilience.

Primary lateral sclerosis natural history study - planning, designing, and early enrollment.

Introduction/Aims. Primary lateral sclerosis (PLS) is exceedingly rare and has been an enigmatic disease. Recent progress has drastically changed this perception, with early biomarkers being investigated and potential medications for PLS emerging at the preclinical stage. The aim of this paper is to describe a study of PLS natural history and discuss the limitations and proposed solutions to the study of a rare and slowly progressive disease. Methods. The PLS Natural History Study is a 30-site, 24-month, prospective study that is supported by multiple funding sources. The study aims to enroll 50 early PLS (disease duration ≤4 years) and 50 definite PLS (disease duration 4 to 15 years) participants using modified PLS Diagnostic Criteria. Smartphone-based assessments including semi-quantitative and quantitative measures and patient-reported outcomes are utilized. In-person quantitative measures are also completed during site visits. The change in the PLS Functional Rating Scale score is the primary outcome. The study utilizes the NeuroBANK® patient-centric data capture and management platform. The biostatistical analysis plan has been developed. Results. In one year, 28 participants have been recruited. Enrollment has been much slower than anticipated due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the rarity of PLS, and potential study competition for internal resources from ALS clinical trials. Discussion. We discuss the need for more innovative methods to enroll and study individuals with such rare diseases and propose a number of mechanisms by which more efficient enrollment could be facilitated.

A Series of Virtual Interventions for Chronic Lower Back Pain: A Feasibility Pilot Study for a Series of Personalized (N-of-1) Trials.

Chronic lower back pain (CLBP) affects 25% of U.S. adults and is associated with high costs due to physician visits and reduced productivity. Research shows that massage and yoga can be effective nonpharmacological treatments for CLBP, but the feasibility, scalability, individual treatment, and adverse-event heterogeneity of these treatments are unknown. The current study evaluated the feasibility and acceptability of a series of personalized (N-of-1) interventions for virtual delivery of massage and yoga or usual-care treatment for CLBP in 57 participants. We hypothesized that this study would provide valuable information about implementing a virtual, personalized platform for randomized controlled trials of personalized (N-of-1) interventions among individuals with CLBP. The study will do so by determining participants' ratings of usability and satisfaction with the virtual, personalized intervention delivery system and, in the long term, identifying ways to integrate these personalized trials into patient care. Of the 57 participants enrolled, two withdrew from the study and were not eligible to receive the primary outcome assessment. Thirty-seven of the remaining 55 participants (67.3%) completed satisfaction surveys comprising the System Usability Scale (SUS) and items assessing satisfaction with the components of the personalized trial. Participants rated the usability of the personalized trial as excellent (average SUS score = 85.8), 95% were satisfied with the personalized trial overall, and 100% stated they would recommend the trial to others. These results suggest that personalized trials of massage and yoga are highly feasible and acceptable to participants with CLBP.

Which Road to Recovery?: Factors Influencing Postacute Stroke Discharge Destinations: A Delphi Study.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The criteria for determining the level of postacute care for patients with stroke are variable and inconsistent. The purpose of this study was to identify key factors influencing the selection of postacute level of care for these patients. METHODS: We used a collaborative 4-round Delphi process to achieve a refined list of factors influencing postacute level of care selection. Our Delphi panel of experts consisted of 32 panelists including physicians, physical therapists, occupational therapists, speech-language pathologists, nurses, stroke survivors, administrators, policy experts, and individuals associated with third-party insurance companies. RESULTS: In round 1, 207 factors were proposed, with subsequent discussion resulting in consolidation into 15 factors for consideration. In round 2, 15 factors were ranked with consensus on 10 factors; in round 3,10 factors were ranked with consensus on 9 factors. In round 4, the final round, 9 factors were rated with Likert scores ranging from 5 (most important) to 1(not important). The percentage of panelists who provided a rating of 4 or above were as follows: likelihood to benefit from an active rehabilitation program (97%), need for clinicians with specialized rehabilitation skills (94%), need for active and ongoing medical management and monitoring (84%), ability to tolerate an active rehabilitation program (74%), need for caregiver training to return to the community (48%), family/caregiver support (39%), likelihood to return to community/home (39%), ability to return to physical home environment (32%), and premorbid dementia (16%). CONCLUSIONS: This study provides an expert, consensus-based set of key factors to be considered when determining where stroke patients are discharged for postacute care. These factors may be useful in developing a decision support tool for use in clinical settings.

Evaluating Personalized (N-of-1) Trials in Rare Diseases: How Much Experimentation Is Enough?

For rare diseases, conducting large, randomized trials of new treatments can be infeasible due to limited sample size, and it may answer the wrong scientific questions due to heterogeneity of treatment effects. Personalized (N-of-1) trials are multi-period crossover studies that aim to estimate individual treatment effects, thereby identifying the optimal treatments for individuals. This article examines the statistical design issues of evaluating a personalized (N-of-1) treatment program in people with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). We propose an evaluation framework based on an analytical model for longitudinal data observed in a personalized trial. Under this framework, we address two design parameters: length of experimentation in each trial and number of trials needed. For the former, we consider patient-centric design criteria that aim to maximize the benefits of enrolled patients. Using theoretical investigation and numerical studies, we demonstrate that, from a patient's perspective, the duration of an experimentation period should be no longer than one-third of the entire follow-up period of the trial. For the latter, we provide analytical formulae to calculate the power for testing quality improvement due to personalized trials in a randomized evaluation program and hence determine the required number of trials needed for the program. We apply our theoretical results to design an evaluation program for ALS treatments informed by pilot data and show that the length of experimentation has a small impact on power relative to other factors such as the degree of heterogeneity of treatment effects.

Determinants and Outcomes of Asymptomatic Intracranial Atherosclerotic Stenosis.

BACKGROUND: Intracranial atherosclerotic stenosis (ICAS) is one of the most common causes of stroke worldwide and confers a high risk of stroke recurrence, despite aggressive management of risk factors. OBJECTIVES: This study identified the role of risk factors and risk of vascular events in subjects with asymptomatic ICAS for improved risk stratification. METHODS: Stroke-free participants in the NOMAS (Northern Manhattan Study) trial, prospectively followed since 1993, underwent a brain magnetic resonance angiogram from 2003 to 2008. The study rated stenosis in 11 brain arteries as: 0: no stenosis; 1: <50% or luminal irregularities; 2: 50%-69%; and 3: ≥70% stenosis or flow gap. The study ascertained vascular events during the post-magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) period. Proportional odds regression quantified the association of pre-MRI exposures, and proportional hazard adjusted models were built to identify the risk of events in the post-MRI period. RESULTS: The included sample included 1,211 participants from NOMAS (mean age: 71 ± 9 years; 59% women; 65% Hispanic; 45% had any stenosis). Older age (OR: 1.02 per year; 95% CI: 1.01 to 1.04), hypertension duration (OR: 1.01 per year; 95% CI: 1.00 to 1.02), higher number of glucose-lowering drugs (OR: 1.64 per each medication; 95% CI: 1.24 to 2.15), and high-density lipoprotein (OR: 0.96 per mg/dL; 95% CI: 0.92 to 0.99) were associated with ICAS. The highest event risk was noted among participants with ICAS ≥70% (5.5% annual risk of vascular events; HR: 2.1; 95% CI:1.4 to 3.2; compared with those with no ICAS). CONCLUSIONS: ICAS is an imaging marker of established atherosclerotic disease in stroke-free subjects, and incidental diagnosis of ICAS should trigger a thorough assessment of vascular health.

Immune markers are associated with cognitive performance in a multiethnic cohort: The Northern Manhattan Study.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether immune protein panels add significant information to correlates of cognition. BACKGROUND: Immune mechanisms in vascular cognitive aging are incompletely characterized. DESIGN/METHODS: A subsample of the prospective Northern Manhattan Study underwent detailed neuropsychological testing. Cognitive scores were converted into Z-scores and categorized into four domains (memory, language, processing speed, and executive function) based on factor analysis. Blood samples were analyzed using a 60-plex immunoassay. We used least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) procedures to select markers and their interactions independently associated with cognitive scores. Linear regression models assessed cross-sectional associations of known correlates of cognition with cognitive scores, and assessed model fit before and after addition of LASSO-selected immune markers. RESULTS: Among 1179 participants (mean age 70 ± 8.9 years, 60% women, 68% Hispanic), inclusion of LASSO-selected immune markers improved model fit above age, education, and other risk factors (p for likelihood ratio test < 0.005 for all domains). C-C Motif Chemokine Ligand 11 (CCL 11, eotaxin), C-X-C Motif Chemokine Ligand 9 (CXCL9), hepatocyte growth factor (HGF), and serpin E1 (plasminogen activator inhibitor-1) were associated with each of the domains and with overall cognitive function. Immune marker effects were comparable to conventional risk factors: for executive function, each standard deviation (SD) increase in CCL11 was associated with an effect equivalent to aging three years; for memory, HGF had twice the effect of aging. CONCLUSIONS: Immune markers associate with cognitive function in a multi-ethnic cohort. Further work is needed to validate these findings and determine optimal treatment targets.

Experimental Designs to Optimize Treatments for Individuals: Personalized N-of-1 Trials.

Conventional randomized clinical trials (RCTs) compare treatment effectiveness to provide support for evidence-based treatments that can be generalized to the average patient. However, the information obtained from RCTs may not always be useful for selecting the best treatment for individual patients. This article presents a complementary approach to identifying optimized treatments using experimental designs that focus on individuals. Personalized, or N-of-1, designs provide both a comparative analysis of treatments and a functional analysis demonstrating that changes in patient symptoms are likely because of the treatment implemented. This approach contributes to the zeitgeist of personalized medicine and provides clinicians with a paradigm for investigating optimal treatments for rare diseases for which RCTs are not always feasible, identifying personally effective treatments for patients with comorbidities who have historically been excluded from most RCTs, handling clinical situations in which patients respond idiosyncratically (either positively or negatively) to treatment, and shortening the time lag between identification and implementation of an evidence-based treatment. These designs merge experimental analysis of behavior methods used for decades in psychology with new methodological and statistical advances to assess significance levels of changes in individual patients, and they can be generalized to larger populations for meta-analytic purposes. This article presents a case for why these models are needed, an overview of how to apply personalized designs for different types of clinical scenarios, and a brief discussion of challenges associated with interpretation and implementation of personalized designs. The goal is to empower pediatricians to take personalized trial designs into clinical practice to identify optimal treatments for their patients.