Spatial Distribution and Climate Warming Impact on Abies kawakamii Forest on a Subtropical Island.

Species distribution modeling (SDM) is currently the primary tool for predicting suitable habitats for species. In this study, we used Abies kawakamii, a species endemic to Taiwan. Being the only Abies species distributed in high mountains, it acts as an ecological indicator on the subtropical island. We analyzed a vegetation map derived from remote sensing and ground surveys using SDM. The actual distribution of A. kawakamii in Taiwan has a total area of 16,857 ha distributed at an altitude of 2700-3600 m, and it often forms a monodominant forest at 3100-3600 m with the higher altitude edge as a forest line. Exploring the potential distribution of A. kawakamii through MaxEnt showed that the suitable habitat was 73,151 ha under the current climate. Under the scenarios of temperature increases of 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, and 2.0 °C, suitable habitat for A. kawakamii will gradually decrease to 70.2%, 47.1%, 30.2%, and 10.0% of this area, respectively, indicating that A. kawakamii will greatly decline under these climate warming scenarios. Fire burning disturbance may be the most significant damage to A. kawakamii at present. Although A. kawakamii has been protected by conservation areas and its natural regeneration is in good condition, it rarely has the opportunity to migrate upwards during climate warming. We suggest that in the future, research on the natural regeneration and artificial restoration of A. kawakamii should be emphasized, especially in the forest line ecotone.

Tree mortality in response to typhoon-induced floods and mudslides is determined by tree species, size, and position in a riparian Formosan gum forest in subtropical Taiwan.

Global warming-induced extreme climatic changes have increased the frequency of severe typhoons bringing heavy rains; this has considerably affected the stability of the forest ecosystems. Since the Taiwan 921 earthquake occurred in 21 September 1999, the mountain geology of the Island of Taiwan has become unstable and typhoon-induced floods and mudslides have changed the topography and geomorphology of the area; this has further affected the stability and functions of the riparian ecosystem. In this study, the vegetation of the unique Aowanda Formosan gum forest in Central Taiwan was monitored for 3 years after the occurrence of floods and mudslides during 2009-2011. Tree growth and survival, effects of floods and mudslides, and factors influencing tree survival were investigated. We hypothesized that (1) the effects of floods on the survival are significantly different for each tree species; (2) tree diameter at breast height (DBH) affects tree survival-i.e., the larger the DBH, the higher the survival rate; and (3) the relative position of trees affects tree survival after disturbances by floods and mudslides-the farther trees are from the river, the higher is their survival rate. Our results showed that after floods and mudslides, the lifespans of the major tree species varied significantly. Liquidambar formosana displayed the highest flood tolerance, and the trunks of Lagerstoemia subcostata began rooting after disturbances. Multiple regression analysis indicated that factors such as species, DBH, distance from sampled tree to the above boundary of sample plot (far from the riverbank), and distance from the upstream of the river affected the lifespans of trees; the three factors affected each tree species to different degrees. Furthermore, we showed that insect infestation had a critical role in determining tree survival rate. Our 3-year monitoring investigation revealed that severe typhoon-induced floods and mudslides disturbed the riparian vegetation in the Formosan gum forest, replacing the original vegetation and beginning secondary succession. Moreover, flooding provided new habitats for various plants to establish their progeny. By using our results, lifecycles of trees (including death) can be understood in detail, facilitating riparian vegetation engineering in forests severely disturbed by typhoon-induced floods and mudslides.

The phylogeography of Fagus hayatae (Fagaceae): genetic isolation among populations.

The beech species Fagus hayatae is an important relict tree species in subtropical China, whose biogeographical patterns may reflect floral responses to climate change in this region during the Quaternary. Previous studies have revealed phylogeography for three of the four Fagus species in China, but study on F. hayatae, the most sparsely distributed of these species, is still lacking. Here, molecular methods based on eight simple sequence repeat (SSR) loci of nuclear DNA (nDNA) and three chloroplast DNA (cpDNA) sequences were applied for analyses of genetic diversity and structure in 375 samples from 14 F. hayatae populations across its whole range. Both nDNA and cpDNA indicated a high level of genetic diversity in this species. Significant fixation indexes and departures from the Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium, with a genetic differentiation parameter of R st of 0.233, were detected in nDNA SSR loci among populations, especially those on Taiwan Island, indicating strong geographic partitioning. The populations were classified into two clusters, without a prominent signal of isolation-by-distance. For the 15 haplotypes detected in the cpDNA sequence fragments, there was a high genetic differentiation parameter (G st = 0.712) among populations. A high G st of 0.829 was also detected outside but not within the Sichuan Basin. Consistent with other Fagus species in China, no recent population expansion was detected from tests of neutrality and mismatch distribution analysis. Overall, genetic isolation with limited gene flow was prominent for this species and significant phylogeographic structures existed across its range except for those inside the Sichuan Basin. Our study suggested long-term geographic isolation in F. hayatae with limited population admixture and the existence of multiple refugia in the mountainous regions of the Sichuan Basin and southeast China during the Quaternary. These results may provide useful information critical for the conservation of F. hayatae and other Chinese beech species.