Forest carbon stock development following extreme drought-induced dieback of coniferous stands in Central Europe: a CBM-CFS3 model application.

BACKGROUND: We analyze the forest carbon stock development following the recent historically unprecedented dieback of coniferous stands in the Czech Republic. The drought-induced bark-beetle infestation resulted in record-high sanitary logging and total harvest more than doubled from the previous period. It turned Czech forestry from a long-term carbon sink offsetting about 6% of the country's greenhouse gas emissions since 1990 to a significant source of CO2 emissions in recent years (2018-2021). In 2020, the forestry sector contributed nearly 10% to the country's overall GHG emissions. Using the nationally calibrated Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3) at a regional (NUTS3) spatial resolution, we analyzed four scenarios of forest carbon stock development until 2070. Two critical points arise: the short-term prognosis for reducing current emissions from forestry and the implementation of adaptive forest management focused on tree species change and sustained carbon accumulation. RESULTS: This study used four different spruce forest dieback scenarios to assess the impact of adaptive forest management on the forest carbon stock change and CO2 emissions, tree species composition, harvest possibilities, and forest structure in response to the recent unprecedented calamitous dieback in the Czech Republic. The model analysis indicates that Czech forestry may stabilize by 2025 Subsequently, it may become a sustained sink of about 3 Mt CO2 eq./year (excluding the contribution of harvested wood products), while enhancing forest resilience by the gradual implementation of adaptation measures. The speed of adaptation is linked to harvest intensity and severity of the current calamity. Under the pessimistic Black scenario, the proportion of spruce stands declines from the current 43-20% by 2070, in favor of more suited tree species such as fir and broadleaves. These species would also constitute over 50% of the harvest potential, increasingly contributing to harvest levels like those generated by Czech forestry prior to the current calamity. The standing stock would only be recovered in 50 years under the optimistic Green scenario. CONCLUSION: The results show progress of adaptive management by implementing tree species change and quantify the expected harvest and mitigation potential in Czech forestry until 2070.

The number of tree species on Earth.

One of the most fundamental questions in ecology is how many species inhabit the Earth. However, due to massive logistical and financial challenges and taxonomic difficulties connected to the species concept definition, the global numbers of species, including those of important and well-studied life forms such as trees, still remain largely unknown. Here, based on global ground-sourced data, we estimate the total tree species richness at global, continental, and biome levels. Our results indicate that there are ∼73,000 tree species globally, among which ∼9,000 tree species are yet to be discovered. Roughly 40% of undiscovered tree species are in South America. Moreover, almost one-third of all tree species to be discovered may be rare, with very low populations and limited spatial distribution (likely in remote tropical lowlands and mountains). These findings highlight the vulnerability of global forest biodiversity to anthropogenic changes in land use and climate, which disproportionately threaten rare species and thus, global tree richness.

The 2018 European heatwave led to stem dehydration but not to consistent growth reductions in forests.

Heatwaves exert disproportionately strong and sometimes irreversible impacts on forest ecosystems. These impacts remain poorly understood at the tree and species level and across large spatial scales. Here, we investigate the effects of the record-breaking 2018 European heatwave on tree growth and tree water status using a collection of high-temporal resolution dendrometer data from 21 species across 53 sites. Relative to the two preceding years, annual stem growth was not consistently reduced by the 2018 heatwave but stems experienced twice the temporary shrinkage due to depletion of water reserves. Conifer species were less capable of rehydrating overnight than broadleaves across gradients of soil and atmospheric drought, suggesting less resilience toward transient stress. In particular, Norway spruce and Scots pine experienced extensive stem dehydration. Our high-resolution dendrometer network was suitable to disentangle the effects of a severe heatwave on tree growth and desiccation at large-spatial scales in situ, and provided insights on which species may be more vulnerable to climate extremes.

Climate warming induced synchronous growth decline in Norway spruce populations across biogeographical gradients since 2000.

Covering large parts of Europe, Norway spruce (Picea abies L Karst.) plays an important role in the adaptation strategy of forest services to future climate change. Although dendroecology can provide valuable information on the past relationships between tree growth and climate, most previous studies were biased towards species-specific distribution limits, where old individuals grow slowly under extreme conditions. In the present study, we investigated the growth variability and climate sensitivity of 2851 Norway spruce trees along longitudinal (E 12-26°), latitudinal (N 45-51°), and elevation (118-1591 m a.s.l.) gradients in central-eastern Europe. We reveal that summer weather significantly affects the radial growth of spruce trees, but the effects strongly vary along biogeographical gradients. Extreme summer heatwaves in 2000 and 2003 reduced the growth rates by 10-35%, most pronounced in the southern Carpathians. In contrast to the population in the Czech Republic, climate warming induced a synchronous decline in the growth rates across biogeographical gradients in the Carpathian arc. By demonstrating the increased vulnerability of Norway spruce under warmer climate conditions, we recommended that the forest services and conservation managers replace or admix monocultures of this species with more drought-resilient mixtures including fir, beech and other broadleaved species.

Late-spring frost risk between 1959 and 2017 decreased in North America but increased in Europe and Asia.

Late-spring frosts (LSFs) affect the performance of plants and animals across the world's temperate and boreal zones, but despite their ecological and economic impact on agriculture and forestry, the geographic distribution and evolutionary impact of these frost events are poorly understood. Here, we analyze LSFs between 1959 and 2017 and the resistance strategies of Northern Hemisphere woody species to infer trees' adaptations for minimizing frost damage to their leaves and to forecast forest vulnerability under the ongoing changes in frost frequencies. Trait values on leaf-out and leaf-freezing resistance come from up to 1,500 temperate and boreal woody species cultivated in common gardens. We find that areas in which LSFs are common, such as eastern North America, harbor tree species with cautious (late-leafing) leaf-out strategies. Areas in which LSFs used to be unlikely, such as broad-leaved forests and shrublands in Europe and Asia, instead harbor opportunistic tree species (quickly reacting to warming air temperatures). LSFs in the latter regions are currently increasing, and given species' innate resistance strategies, we estimate that ∼35% of the European and ∼26% of the Asian temperate forest area, but only ∼10% of the North American, will experience increasing late-frost damage in the future. Our findings reveal region-specific changes in the spring-frost risk that can inform decision-making in land management, forestry, agriculture, and insurance policy.

The chemical composition of forest soils and their degree of acidity in Central Europe.

We conducted an extensive screening of forest soils in the whole area of the Czech Republic to determine their degree of acidification and potential degradation. Soils were sampled at 480 forest sites (in a 7 × 7 km grid covering the entire Czech Republic) from the upper 30-cm layer and included both organic and mineral horizons. Based on values of water extractable pH (pHH2O), cation exchange capacity (CEC) and base saturation (BS), soils were divided into three categories by their degree of acidity, i.e., non-or-low-acidic (NLA; pHH2O ≥ 4.2, CEC ≥ 150 meq kg-1, BS ≥ 15%), moderately acidic (MA; at least one parameter is below the limits for the NLA category), and strongly acidic (SA; all three parameters are below the limits for the NLA category). Only 11% of sampled soils were classified in the NLA category, while 58% and 31% belonged to the MA and SA category, respectively. The SA soils had median values of pHH2O, CEC, and BS of 3.9, 102 meq kg-1, and 10.2%, respectively, and their molar ratios between exchangeable concentrations of base cations to aluminum (BCex/Alex) were <0.6, indicating a high likelihood of adverse Al effects on plant growth. Moreover, the SA soils exhibited lowest ratios between extractable nutrients (base cations and phosphorus) and dissolved N (DN), indicating other than N limitation of plant growth at these sites, and elevated risks of reactive N leaching. In contrast, the NLA soils had median values of pHH2O, CEC, BS and BCex/Alex of 5.4, 199 meq kg-1, 95%, and 0.7 respectively. For these soils, neither adverse effects of Al nor elevated N losses are likely.

Increased spruce tree growth in Central Europe since 1960s.

Tree growth response to recent environmental changes is of key interest for forest ecology. This study addressed the following questions with respect to Norway spruce (Picea abies, L. Karst.) in Central Europe: Has tree growth accelerated during the last five decades? What are the main environmental drivers of the observed tree radial stem growth and how much variability can be explained by them? Using a nationwide dendrochronological sampling of Norway spruce in the Czech Republic (1246 trees, 266 plots), novel regional tree-ring width chronologies for 40(±10)- and 60(±10)-year old trees were assembled, averaged across three elevation zones (break points at 500 and 700m). Correspondingly averaged drivers, including temperature, precipitation, nitrogen (N) deposition and ambient CO2 concentration, were used in a general linear model (GLM) to analyze the contribution of these in explaining tree ring width variability for the period from 1961 to 2013. Spruce tree radial stem growth responded strongly to the changing environment in Central Europe during the period, with a mean tree ring width increase of 24 and 32% for the 40- and 60-year old trees, respectively. The indicative General Linear Model analysis identified CO2, precipitation during the vegetation season, spring air temperature (March-May) and N-deposition as the significant covariates of growth, with the latter including interactions with elevation zones. The regression models explained 57% and 55% of the variability in the two tree ring width chronologies, respectively. Growth response to N-deposition showed the highest variability along the elevation gradient with growth stimulation/limitation at sites below/above 700m. A strong sensitivity of stem growth to CO2 was also indicated, suggesting that the effect of rising ambient CO2 concentration (direct or indirect by increased water use efficiency) should be considered in analyses of long-term growth together with climatic factors and N-deposition.

Environmental factors exert strong control over the climate-growth relationships of Picea abies in Central Europe.

The growth response of trees to changing climate is frequently discussed as increasing temperatures and more severe droughts become major risks for forest ecosystems. However, the ability of trees to cope with the changing climate and the effects of other environmental factors on climate-growth relationships are still poorly understood. There is thus an increasing need to understand the ability of individual trees to cope with changing climate in various environments. To improve the current understanding, a large tree-ring network covering the whole area of the Czech Republic (in 7×7km grids) was utilized to investigate how the climate-growth relationships of Norway spruce are affected by 1) various geographical variables, 2) changing levels of acidic deposition, 3) soil characteristics and 4) age, tree diameter and neighbourhood competition. The period from 1930 to 2013 was divided into four, 21-year long intervals of differing levels of acidic deposition, which peaked in the 1972-1993 period. Our individual-based, spatiotemporal, multivariate analyses revealed that spruce growth was mostly affected by drought and warm summers. Drought plays the most important negative role at lower altitudes, while the positive effect of higher temperature was identified for trees at higher altitudes. Increased levels of acidic deposition, together with geographical variables, were identified as the most important factors affecting climate-growth association. Tree age, tree size and soil characteristics also significantly modulate climate-growth relationships. The importance of all environmental variables on climate-growth relationships was suppressed by acidic deposition during periods when this was at a high level; growth was significantly more enhanced by spring and summer temperatures during these periods. Our results suggest that spruce will undergo significant growth reduction under the predicted climate changes, especially at the lower altitudes which lie outside of its natural range.

Discerning environmental factors affecting current tree growth in Central Europe.

We examined the effect of individual environmental factors on the current spruce tree growth assessed from a repeated country-level statistical landscape (incl. forest) survey in the Czech Republic. An extensive set of variables related to tree size, competition, site characteristics including soil texture, chemistry, N deposition and climate was tested within a random-effect model to explain growth in the conditions of dominantly managed forest ecosystems. The current spruce basal area increment was assessed from two consecutive landscape surveys conducted in 2008/2009 and six years later in 2014/2015. Tree size, age and competition within forest stands were found to be the dominant explanatory variables, whereas the expression of site characteristics, environmental and climatic drives was weaker. The significant site variables affecting growth included soil C/N ratio and soil exchangeable acidity (pH KCl; positive response) reflecting soil chemistry, long-term N-deposition (averaged since 1975) in combination with soil texture (clay content) and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), a drought index expressing moisture conditions. Sensitivity of growth to N-deposition was positive, although weak. SPI was positively related to and significant in explaining tree growth when expressed for the growth season. Except SPI, no significant relation of growth was determined to altitude-related variables (temperature, growth season length). We identified the current spruce growth optimum at elevations about 800ma.s.l. or higher in the conditions of the country. This suggests that at lower elevations, limitation by a more pronounced water deficit dominates, whereas direct temperature limitation may concern the less frequent higher elevations. The mixed linear model of spruce tree growth explained 55 and 65% of the variability with fixed and random effects included, respectively, and provided new insights on the current spruce tree growth and factors affecting it within the environmental gradients of the country.

Water use efficiency of short-rotation Salix viminalis at leaf, tree and stand scales.

Fluxes of water and carbon dioxide from short-rotation Salix viminalis L. were measured at leaf, tree and stand scales using porometer, chamber and micrometeorological techniques, respectively. At all three scales, instantaneous water use efficiency exhibited a similar dependence on vapor pressure deficit (deltae) with values of 21, 13 and 10 g CO(2) per kg H(2)O for deltae of 0.5, 1.0 and 1.5 kPa, respectively. The fluxes of CO(2) and H(2)O plotted against incident light above the stand differed in magnitude according to scale, with highest and lowest values being obtained for leaf- and stand-level measurements, respectively. At the tree level, the fluxes of CO(2) and H(2)O reflected the social position of the sample trees with the dominant tree having higher values than the subdominant tree. Average long-term water use efficiency, estimated from stand-level measurements, was 6.3 g dry biomass per kg of transpired water. This value is high compared with values for other tree species and may be associated with a high foliar nitrogen concentration. We conclude that water availability will be a critical factor in short-rotation willow forestry despite the relatively high water use efficiency of the species.