Unraveling the ecological niche signals of Verticillium dahliae: Insights from Mediterranean landscapes.

Verticillium wilt (VW), caused by the soil-borne plant pathogenic fungus Verticillium dahliae, is a major disease impacting olive crops globally. In view of the lack of effective post-infection treatments, exclusion and avoidance strategies are essential in disease management. Assessing the risks posed by this pathogen is essential to prevent the spread and to ensure selection of suitable sites for new plantations. This study aimed to elucidate the environmental factors driving V. dahliae establishment in the Andalusia region, in southern Spain, an emblematic Mediterranean landscape for olive cultivation. To this end, we explored ecological niche signals for this fungal pathogen by analyzing 62 environmental variables across 1.6 million hectares dedicated to olive and cotton cultivation, using a 15-yr survey data on VW incidence on presence-absence from both olive and cotton fields. To ensure robust identification of ecological niche signals, we employed randomization-based, non-parametric univariate tests to compare presence records with the broader sampling universe (including absence records). Our findings identified key environmental variables that are associated significantly with V. dahliae presence, including temperature range seasonality (including mean diurnal and annual ranges), summer temperature (maximum of the warmest month, mean of the warmest quarter), and moisture and water availability (near-surface humidity, potential evapotranspiration, vapor pressure) as core niche variables for V. dahliae. Our results replicated the pathogen's known distribution, identifying the Guadalquivir Valley as a particularly high-risk area in view of its mild winters and distinct rainy seasons, providing new insights into the specific environmental conditions that facilitate the pathogen's survival and spread. Furthermore, this study introduces a novel approach to niche modeling that prioritizes variables with consistent effects and significant impact on the presence and distribution of V. dahliae and identifies potential data artifacts. This approach enhances our understanding of ecological requirements in V. dahliae and informs targeted management strategies.

Broad-scale ecological niches of pathogens vectored by the ticks Ixodes scapularis and Amblyomma americanum in North America.

Environmental dimensions, such as temperature, precipitation, humidity, and vegetation type, influence the activity, survival, and geographic distribution of tick species. Ticks are vectors of various pathogens that cause disease in humans, and Ixodes scapularis and Amblyomma americanum are among the tick species that transmit pathogens to humans across the central and eastern United States. Although their potential geographic distributions have been assessed broadly via ecological niche modeling, no comprehensive study has compared ecological niche signals between ticks and tick-borne pathogens. We took advantage of National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) data for these two tick species and associated bacteria pathogens across North America. We used two novel statistical tests that consider sampling and absence data explicitly to perform these explorations: a univariate analysis based on randomization and resampling, and a permutational multivariate analysis of variance. Based on univariate analyses, in Amblyomma americanum, three pathogens (Borrelia lonestari, Ehrlichia chaffeensis, and E. ewingii) were tested; pathogens showed nonrandom distribution in at least one environmental dimension. Based on the PERMANOVA test, the null hypothesis that the environmental position and variation of pathogen-positive samples are equivalent to those of A. americanum could not be rejected for any of the pathogens, except for the pathogen E. ewingii in maximum and minimum vapor pressure and minimum temperature. For Ixodes scapularis, six pathogens (A. phagocytophilum, Babesia microti, Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato, B. mayonii, B. miyamotoi, and Ehrlichia muris-like) were tested; only B. miyamotoi was not distinct from null expectations in all environmental dimensions, based on univariate tests. In the PERMANOVA analyses, the pathogens departed from null expectations for B. microti and B. burgdorferi sensu lato, with smaller niches in B. microti, and larger niches in B. burgdorferi sensu lato, than the vector. More generally, this study shows the value of large-scale data resources with consistent sampling methods, and known absences of key pathogens in particular samples, for answering public health questions, such as the relationship of presence and absence of pathogens in their hosts respect to environmental conditions.

Long-term antibiotic exposure landscapes and resistant Escherichia coli colonization in a densely populated setting.

Antibiotic exposure is associated with resistant bacterial colonization, but this relationship can be obscured in community settings owing to horizontal bacterial transmission and broad distributions. Locality-level exposure estimates considering inhabitants' length of stay, exposure history, and exposure conditions of areas nearby could clarify these relationships. We used prescription data filled during 2010-2015 for 23 antibiotic types for members of georeferenced households in a population-based infectious disease surveillance platform. For each antibiotic and locality, we generated exposure estimates, expressed in defined daily doses (DDD) per 1000 inhabitant days of observation (IDO). We also estimated relevant environmental parameters, such as the distance of each locality to water, sanitation, and other amenities. We used data on ampicillin, ceftazidime, and trimethoprim-and-sulfamethoxazole resistant Escherichia coli colonization from stool cultures of asymptomatic individuals in randomly selected households. We tested exposure-colonization associations using permutation analysis of variance and logistic generalized linear mixed-effect models. Overall, exposure was highest for trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole (1.8 DDD per 1000 IDO), followed by amoxicillin (0.7 DDD per 1000 IDO). Of 1,386 unique household samples from 195 locations tested between September 2015 and January 2016, 90%, 85% and 4% were colonized with E. coli resistant to trimethoprim and sulfamethoxazole, ampicillin, and ceftazidime, respectively. Ceftazidime-resistant E. coli colonization was common in areas with increased trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole, cloxacillin, and erythromycin exposure. No association with any of the physical environmental variables was observed. We did not detect relationships between distribution patterns of ampicillin or trimethoprim-and-sulfamethoxazole resistant E. coli colonization and the risk factors assessed. Appropriate temporal and spatial scaling of raw antibiotic exposure data to account for evolution and ecological contexts of antibiotic resistance could clarify exposure-colonization relationships in community settings and inform community stewardship program.

Correlative ecological niche model applications to predicting landscape-scale woody plant encroachment in Kansas tallgrass prairie systems.

Woody plant encroachment (WPE) in grassland ecosystems has been a pervasive process across the Great Plains, yet a predictive understanding of where it will occur has been elusive. As an exploration of tools of potential utility in this challenge, we mapped WPE processes over the years 2015-2021 in a set of 9 counties in central Kansas. We developed and tested two correlative models based on landscape features: one that assessed distribution of evergreen trees in 2015, and another that assessed areas of WPE in succeeding years. Both models were successful, being able to predict 2015 forest distributions and being able to predict WPE during 2015-2021, as functions of characteristics of landscapes. These simple, correlative models will certainly not be able to predict WPE processes globally, or even regionally, but provide first proof-of-concept explorations for the central Great Plains region.

Phenology of five tick species in the central Great Plains.

The states of Kansas and Oklahoma, in the central Great Plains, lie at the western periphery of the geographic distributions of several tick species. As the focus of most research on ticks and tick-borne diseases has been on Lyme disease which commonly occurs in areas to the north and east, the ticks of this region have seen little research attention. Here, we report on the phenology and activity patterns shown by tick species observed at 10 sites across the two states and explore factors associated with abundance of all and life specific individuals of the dominant species. Ticks were collected in 2020-2022 using dragging, flagging and carbon-dioxide trapping techniques, designed to detect questing ticks. The dominant species was A. americanum (24098, 97%) followed by Dermacentor variabilis (370, 2%), D. albipictus (271, 1%), Ixodes scapularis (91, <1%) and A. maculatum (38, <1%). Amblyomma americanum, A. maculatum and D. variabilis were active in Spring and Summer, while D. albipictus and I. scapularis were active in Fall and Winter. Factors associated with numbers of individuals of A. americanum included day of year, habitat, and latitude. Similar associations were observed when abundance was examined by life-stage. Overall, the picture is one of broadly distributed tick species that shows seasonal limitations in the timing of their questing activity.

Relationships among cost, citation, and access in journal publishing by an ecology and evolutionary biology department at a U.S. university.

Background: Optimizing access to high-quality scientific journals has become an important priority for academic departments, including the ability to read the scientific literature and the ability to afford to publish papers in those journals. In this contribution, we assess the question of whether institutional investment in scientific journals aligns with the journals where researchers send their papers for publication, and where they serve as unpaid reviewers and editors. Methods: We assembled a unique suite of information about the publishing habits of our Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, including summaries of 3,540 journal publications by 35 faculty members. These data include economic costs of journals to institutions and to authors, benefits to authors in terms of journal prestige and citation rates, and considerations of ease of reading access for individuals both inside and outside the university. This dataset included data on institutional costs, including subscription pricing (rarely visible to scholars), and "investment" by scholars in supporting journals, such as time spent as editors and reviewers. Results: Our results highlighted the complex set of relationships between these factors, and showed that institutional costs often do not match well with payoffs in terms of benefits to researchers (e.g., citation rate, prestige of journal, ease of access). Overall, we advocate for greater cost-benefit transparency to help compare different journals and different journal business models; such transparency would help both researchers and their institutions in investing wisely the limited resources available to academics.

Broad-scale factors shaping the ecological niche and geographic distribution of Spirodela polyrhiza.

The choice of appropriate independent variables to create models characterizing ecological niches of species is of critical importance in distributional ecology. This set of dimensions in which a niche is defined can inform about what factors limit the distributional potential of a species. We used a multistep approach to select relevant variables for modeling the ecological niche of the aquatic Spirodela polyrhiza, taking into account variability arising from using distinct algorithms, calibration areas, and spatial resolutions of variables. We found that, even after an initial selection of meaningful variables, the final set of variables selected based on statistical inference varied considerably depending on the combination of algorithm, calibration area, and spatial resolution used. However, variables representing extreme temperatures and dry periods were more consistently selected than others, despite the treatment used, highlighting their importance in shaping the distribution of this species. Other variables related to seasonality of solar radiation, summer solar radiation, and some soil proxies of nutrients in water, were selected commonly but not as frequently as the ones mentioned above. We suggest that these later variables are also important to understanding the distributional potential of the species, but that their effects may be less pronounced at the scale at which they are represented for the needs of this type of modeling. Our results suggest that an informed definition of an initial set of variables, a series of statistical steps for filtering and exploring these predictors, and model selection exercises that consider multiple sets of predictors, can improve determination of variables that shape the niche and distribution of the species, despite differences derived from factors related to data or modeling algorithms.

Global ecological niche conservatism and evolution in Olea species.

Background and Aims: Climate is an important parameter in delimiting coarse-grained aspects of fundamental ecological niches of species; evolution of these niches has been considered a key component in biological diversification. We assessed phylogenetic niche conservatism and evolution in 24 species of the family Oleaceae in relation to temperature and precipitation variables. We studied niches of 17 Olea species and 7 species from other genera of Oleaceae globally. Methods: We used nuclear ribosomal and plastid DNA to reconstruct an evolutionary tree for the family. We used an approach designed specifically to incorporate uncertainty and incomplete knowledge of species' ecological niche limits. We performed parsimony- and likelihood-based reconstructions of ancestral states on two independent phylogenetic hypotheses for the family. After detailed analysis, species' niches were classified into warm and cold niches, wet and dry niches, and broad and narrow niches. Key Results: Given that full estimates of fundamental niches are difficult, we explore the alternative approach of explicit incorporation of knowledge of gaps in the information available, which allows avoidance of overestimation of amounts of evolutionary change. The result is a first synthetic view of evolutionary dynamics of ecological niches and distributional potential in a widespread plant family. Temperate regions of the Earth were occupied only by lineages that could derive with cold and dry niches; Southeast Asia held species with warm and wet niches; and parts of Africa held only species with dry niches. Conclusions: High temperature in Lutetian (Oligocene) and low temperature in Rupelian (Eocene) with major desertification events play important role for niche retraction and expansion in the history for Oleaceae clades. Associations between environmental niche characteristics and phylogeny reconstruction play an important role in understanding ecological niche conservatism, the overall picture was relatively slow or conservative niche evolution in this group.

Genome-environment association methods comparison supports omnigenic adaptation to ecological niche in malaria vector mosquitoes.

The concept of a fundamental ecological niche is central to questions of geographic distribution, population demography, species conservation, and evolutionary potential. However, robust inference of genomic regions associated with evolutionary adaptation to particular environmental conditions remains difficult due to the myriad of potential confounding processes that can generate heterogeneous patterns of variation across the genome. Here, we interrogate the potential role of genome environment association (GEA) testing as an initial step in building an understanding of the genetic basis of ecological niche. We leverage publicly available genomic data from the Anopheles gambiae 1000 Genomes (Ag1000g) Consortium to test the ability of multiple analytically unique GEA methods to handle confounding patterns of genetic variation, control false positive rates, and discern associations with broadly relevant climate variables from random allele frequency patterns throughout the genome. We found evidence supporting the ability of commonly implemented GEA methods to account for confounding patterns of spatial and genetic variation, and control false positive rates. However, we fail to find evidence supporting the ability of GEA tests to reject signals of adaptation to randomly simulated environmental variables, indicating that discerning between true signals of genome environment adaptation and genome environment correlations resulting from alternative evolutionary processes, remains challenging. Because signals of environmental adaptation are so diffuse and confounded throughout the genome, we argue that genomic adaptation to ecological niche is likely best understood under an omnigenic model wherein highly interconnected, genome-wide gene regulatory networks shape genomic adaptation to key environmental conditions.

Climatic suitability of the eastern paralysis tick, Ixodes holocyclus, and its likely geographic distribution in the year 2050.

The eastern paralysis tick, Ixodes holocyclus is one of two ticks that cause potentially fatal tick paralysis in Australia, and yet information on the full extent of its present or potential future spatial distribution is not known. Occurrence data for this tick species collected over the past two decades, and gridded environmental variables at 1 km2 resolution representing climate conditions, were used to derive correlative ecological niche models to predict the current and future potential distribution. Several hundreds of candidate models were constructed with varying combinations of model parameters, and the best-fitting model was chosen based on statistical significance, omission rate, and Akaike Information Criterion (AICc). The best-fitting model matches the currently known distribution but also extends through most of the coastal areas in the south, and up to the Kimbolton peninsula in Western Australia in the north. Highly suitable areas are present around south of Perth, extending towards Albany, Western Australia. Most areas in Tasmania, where the species is not currently present, are also highly suitable. Future spatial distribution of this tick in the year 2050 indicates moderate increase in climatic suitability from the present-day prediction but noticeably also moderate to low loss of climatically suitable areas elsewhere.

An ecological niche shift for Neanderthal populations in Western Europe 70,000 years ago.

Middle Paleolithic Neanderthal populations occupied Eurasia for at least 250,000 years prior to the arrival of anatomically modern humans. While a considerable body of archaeological research has focused on Neanderthal material culture and subsistence strategies, little attention has been paid to the relationship between regionally specific cultural trajectories and their associated existing fundamental ecological niches, nor to how the latter varied across periods of climatic variability. We examine the Middle Paleolithic archaeological record of a naturally constrained region of Western Europe between 82,000 and 60,000 years ago using ecological niche modeling methods. Evaluations of ecological niche estimations, in both geographic and environmental dimensions, indicate that 70,000 years ago the range of suitable habitats exploited by these Neanderthal populations contracted and shifted. These ecological niche dynamics are the result of groups continuing to occupy habitual territories that were characterized by new environmental conditions during Marine Isotope Stage 4. The development of original cultural adaptations permitted this territorial stability.

Geographic potential of the world's largest hornet, Vespa mandarinia Smith (Hymenoptera: Vespidae), worldwide and particularly in North America.

The Asian giant hornet (AGH, Vespa mandarinia) is the world's largest hornet, occurring naturally in the Indomalayan region, where it is a voracious predator of pollinating insects including honey bees. In September 2019, a nest of Asian giant hornets was detected outside of Vancouver, British Columbia; multiple individuals were detected in British Columbia and Washington state in 2020; and another nest was found and eradicated in Washington state in November 2020, indicating that the AGH may have successfully wintered in North America. Because hornets tend to spread rapidly and become pests, reliable estimates of the potential invasive range of V. mandarinia in North America are needed to assess likely human and economic impacts, and to guide future eradication attempts. Here, we assess climatic suitability for AGH in North America, and suggest that, without control, this species could establish populations across the Pacific Northwest and much of eastern North America. Predicted suitable areas for AGH in North America overlap broadly with areas where honey production is highest, as well as with species-rich areas for native bumble bees and stingless bees of the genus Melipona in Mexico, highlighting the economic and environmental necessity of controlling this nascent invasion.

Differences Between Attached and Detached Cadaveric Prosections on Students' Identification Ability During Practical Examinations.

Cadaveric prosections are effective learning tools in anatomy education. They range from a fully dissected, sometimes plastinated, complete cadaver (in situ prosections), to a single, carefully dissected structure detached from a cadaver (ex situ prosections). While most research has focused on the advantages and disadvantages of dissection versus prosection, limited information is available on the instructional efficacy of different prosection types. This contribution explored potential differences between in situ and ex situ prosections regarding the ability of undergraduate students to identify anatomical structures. To determine if students were able to recognize the same anatomical structure on both in situ and ex situ prosections, or on either one individually, six structures were tagged on both prosection types as part of three course summative examinations. The majority of students (61%-68%) fell into one of the two categories: those that recognized or failed to recognize the same structure on both in situ and ex situ prosections. The percentage of students who recognized a selected structure on only one type of prosection was small (1.6%-31.6%), but skewed in favor of ex situ prosections (P ≤ 0.01). These results suggest that overall students' identification ability was due to knowledge differences, not the spatial or contextual challenges posed by each type of prosection. They also suggest that the relative difficulty of either prosection type depends on the nature of the anatomical structure. Thus, one type of prosection might be more appropriate for teaching some structures, and therefore the use of both types is recommended.

Acknowledging uncertainty in evolutionary reconstructions of ecological niches.

Reconstructing ecological niche evolution can provide insight into the biogeography and diversification of evolving lineages. However, comparative phylogenetic methods may infer the history of ecological niche evolution inaccurately because (a) species' niches are often poorly characterized; and (b) phylogenetic comparative methods rely on niche summary statistics rather than full estimates of species' environmental tolerances. Here, we propose a new framework for coding ecological niches and reconstructing their evolution that explicitly acknowledges and incorporates the uncertainty introduced by incomplete niche characterization. Then, we modify existing ancestral state inference methods to leverage full estimates of environmental tolerances. We provide a worked empirical example of our method, investigating ecological niche evolution in the New World orioles (Aves: Passeriformes: Icterus spp.). Temperature and precipitation tolerances were generally broad and conserved among orioles, with niche reduction and specialization limited to a few terminal branches. Tools for performing these reconstructions are available in a new R package called nichevol.

kuenm: an R package for detailed development of ecological niche models using Maxent.

BACKGROUND: Ecological niche modeling is a set of analytical tools with applications in diverse disciplines, yet creating these models rigorously is now a challenging task. The calibration phase of these models is critical, but despite recent attempts at providing tools for performing this step, adequate detail is still missing. Here, we present the kuenm R package, a new set of tools for performing detailed development of ecological niche models using the platform Maxent in a reproducible way. RESULTS: This package takes advantage of the versatility of R and Maxent to enable detailed model calibration and selection, final model creation and evaluation, and extrapolation risk analysis. Best parameters for modeling are selected considering (1) statistical significance, (2) predictive power, and (3) model complexity. For final models, we enable multiple parameter sets and model transfers, making processing simpler. Users can also evaluate extrapolation risk in model transfers via mobility-oriented parity (MOP) metric. DISCUSSION: Use of this package allows robust processes of model calibration, facilitating creation of final models based on model significance, performance, and simplicity. Model transfers to multiple scenarios, also facilitated in this package, significantly reduce time invested in performing these tasks. Finally, efficient assessments of strict-extrapolation risks in model transfers via the MOP and MESS metrics help to prevent overinterpretation in model outcomes.

Current and Future Distribution of the Lone Star Tick, Amblyomma americanum (L.) (Acari: Ixodidae) in North America.

Acarological surveys in areas outside the currently believed leading edge of the distribution of lone star ticks (Amblyomma americanum), coupled with recent reports of their identification in previously uninvaded areas in the public health literature, suggest that this species is more broadly distributed in North America than currently understood. Therefore, we evaluated the potential geographic extent under present and future conditions using ecological niche modeling approach based on museum records available for this species at the Walter Reed Biosystematics Unit (WRBU). The median prediction of a best fitting model indicated that lone star ticks are currently likely to be present in broader regions across the Eastern Seaboard as well as in the Upper Midwest, where this species could be expanding its range. Further northward and westward expansion of these ticks can be expected as a result of ongoing climate change, under both low- and high-emissions scenarios.

Major challenges for correlational ecological niche model projections to future climate conditions.

Species-level forecasts of distributional potential and likely distributional shifts, in the face of changing climates, have become popular in the literature in the past 20 years. Many refinements have been made to the methodology over the years, and the result has been an approach that considers multiple sources of variation in geographic predictions, and how that variation translates into both specific predictions and uncertainty in those predictions. Although numerous previous reviews and overviews of this field have pointed out a series of assumptions and caveats associated with the methodology, three aspects of the methodology have important impacts but have not been treated previously in detail. Here, we assess those three aspects: (1) effects of niche truncation on model transfers to future climate conditions, (2) effects of model selection procedures on future-climate transfers of ecological niche models, and (3) relative contributions of several factors (replicate samples of point data, general circulation models, representative concentration pathways, and alternative model parameterizations) to overall variance in model outcomes. Overall, the view is one of caution: although resulting predictions are fascinating and attractive, this paradigm has pitfalls that may bias and limit confidence in niche model outputs as regards the implications of climate change for species' geographic distributions.