Understanding veterinarians' prescribing decisions on antibiotic dry cow therapy.

In the United Kingdom, blanket antibiotic dry cow therapy (BDCT) is commonly prescribed. An alternate strategy is selective dry cow therapy (SDCT) whereby a teat sealant is given instead of an antibiotic to cows with a low probability of infection. Switching from BDCT to SDCT can significantly reduce antibiotic use. The aims of this study were to explore how veterinarians (vets) rationalized their prescribing decisions for mammary treatments at drying off, and the barriers and motivators they perceived to implementing SDCT. Face-to-face interviews were conducted with 20 purposively recruited vets from 6 practices in England, United Kingdom. The data were analyzed qualitatively using an inductive thematic analysis. The majority of participants stated a personal preference for SDCT because it constitutes more responsible antibiotic use. On the majority of farms, the prescribing decision was taken by a senior veterinarian and BDCT was prescribed. Less experienced vets expressed a desire to be more involved in the decision-making process. The first theme, prioritizing responsible antimicrobial prescribing, encapsulated the difficulties vets expressed engaging with farmers, conflicts of interest, and vets' determination to take action. The second theme, the effect of a vet's experience on their ability to influence farmers, focused on the specific challenges faced by less experienced vets and the importance of vets being both trusted by farmers and being knowledgeable. The third theme, vets' perceptions about the risk and complexity of implementing SDCT, revealed markedly different levels of concern and fears about adverse outcomes with teat sealants versus antibiotics. The results also showed differences in perceptions about how difficult SDCT is to implement in practice. The last theme, vets' suggestions for facilitating the introduction of SDCT, was wide ranging and provided useful insight from a veterinary perspective into ways to facilitate SDCT. Initiatives that seek to alter vets' perceptions of the risks associated with switching to using SDCT are likely to prove useful in facilitating change. Our results also suggest that it is vital for senior vets to take a leading role in facilitating farms to implement SDCT. Less experienced colleagues may benefit from more help from senior vets to gain the trust of farmers and to become involved more quickly in herd-level preventive medicine. Vets must work together and take a united approach to reduce antimicrobial use.

Understanding how new evidence influences practitioners' beliefs regarding dry cow therapy: A Bayesian approach using probabilistic elicitation.

This study used probabilistic elicitation and a Bayesian framework to quantitatively explore how logically practitioners' update their clinical beliefs after exposure to new data. The clinical context was the efficacy of antibiotics versus teat sealants for preventing mammary infections during the dry period. While most practitioners updated their clinical expectations logically, the majority failed to draw sufficient strength from the new data so that their clinical confidence afterwards was lower than merited. This study provides quantitative insight into how practitioners' update their beliefs. We discuss some of the psychological issues that may be faced by practitioners when interpreting new data. The results have important implications for evidence-based practice and clinical research in terms of the impact that new data may bring to the clinical community.

Ocean forcing of glacier retreat in the western Antarctic Peninsula.

In recent decades, hundreds of glaciers draining the Antarctic Peninsula (63° to 70°S) have undergone systematic and progressive change. These changes are widely attributed to rapid increases in regional surface air temperature, but it is now clear that this cannot be the sole driver. Here, we identify a strong correspondence between mid-depth ocean temperatures and glacier-front changes along the ~1000-kilometer western coastline. In the south, glaciers that terminate in warm Circumpolar Deep Water have undergone considerable retreat, whereas those in the far northwest, which terminate in cooler waters, have not. Furthermore, a mid-ocean warming since the 1990s in the south is coincident with widespread acceleration of glacier retreat. We conclude that changes in ocean-induced melting are the primary cause of retreat for glaciers in this region.

The spatial clustering of obesity: does the built environment matter?

BACKGROUND: Obesity rates in the USA show distinct geographical patterns. The present study used spatial cluster detection methods and individual-level data to locate obesity clusters and to analyse them in relation to the neighbourhood built environment. METHODS: The 2008-2009 Seattle Obesity Study provided data on the self-reported height, weight, and sociodemographic characteristics of 1602 King County adults. Home addresses were geocoded. Clusters of high or low body mass index were identified using Anselin's Local Moran's I and a spatial scan statistic with regression models that searched for unmeasured neighbourhood-level factors from residuals, adjusting for measured individual-level covariates. Spatially continuous values of objectively measured features of the local neighbourhood built environment (SmartMaps) were constructed for seven variables obtained from tax rolls and commercial databases. RESULTS: Both the Local Moran's I and a spatial scan statistic identified similar spatial concentrations of obesity. High and low obesity clusters were attenuated after adjusting for age, gender, race, education and income, and they disappeared once neighbourhood residential property values and residential density were included in the model. CONCLUSIONS: Using individual-level data to detect obesity clusters with two cluster detection methods, the present study showed that the spatial concentration of obesity was wholly explained by neighbourhood composition and socioeconomic characteristics. These characteristics may serve to more precisely locate obesity prevention and intervention programmes.

SERVAL: a new framework for the evaluation of animal health surveillance.

Animal health surveillance programmes may change in response to altering requirements or perceived weaknesses but are seldom subjected to any formal evaluation to ensure that they provide valuable information in an efficient manner. The literature on the evaluation of animal health surveillance systems is sparse, and those that are published may be unstructured and therefore incomplete. To address this gap, we have developed SERVAL, a SuRveillance EVALuation framework, which is novel and aims to be generic and therefore suitable for the evaluation of any animal health surveillance system. The inclusion of socio-economic criteria ensures that economic evaluation is an integral part of this framework. SERVAL was developed with input from a technical workshop of international experts followed by a consultation process involving providers and users of surveillance and evaluation data. It has been applied to a range of case studies encompassing different surveillance and evaluation objectives. Here, we describe the development, structure and application of the SERVAL framework. We discuss users' experiences in applying SERVAL to evaluate animal health surveillance systems in Great Britain.

Abattoir based survey of Salmonella in finishing pigs in the United Kingdom 2006-2007.

All European Union (EU) Member States (MSs) were required to conduct a baseline survey from October 2006 to September 2007 to estimate the prevalence of Salmonella infection in finisher pigs at slaughter. In the United Kingdom (UK), samples for microbiological culture were collected from the ileo-caecal lymph nodes, from carcass swabs and from caecal contents. Meat juice samples were also collected for testing in an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (MJE) to detect a serological response. Salmonella was isolated from 22% (CI95% 19-25%) of ileo-caecal lymph nodes, 15% (CI95% 12-18%) of carcass swabs and 22% (CI95% 19-26%) of caecal contents. A quarter (25%, CI95% 22-29%) of MJE samples were positive for Salmonella antibodies (cut-off, S/P≥0.25). The most frequently identified serovars were Salmonella typhimurium (57%) and Salmonella derby (26%). The results were used to investigate some factors associated with Salmonella infection in slaughter pigs. The weight of the carcass was significant, with a lower probability of obtaining a positive meat juice result from pigs with a weight greater than 75 kg (p=0.03). The weight of the lymph node sample was significantly associated with Salmonella status, with a heavier sample of lymph nodes being more likely to be positive (OR=2.16 CI95% 1.07-4.39). 'Carcass weight' in two of the classes - 75-79 kg and 80-84 kg - (OR=0.44 CI95% 0.28-0.70; OR=0.64 CI95% 0.49-0.85) and 'fewer-than-1500-pigs' scheduled for slaughter on the day of sampling' (OR=0.41 CI95% 0.24-0.71) were also associated with a reduced risk of isolating Salmonella from lymph node. The model for carcass swabs showed a positive association with 'time-elapsed-since-the-start-of-the-line' indicating a higher risk of contamination as the day progressed (p<0.01). This model also showed positive association between isolation of Salmonella from a carcass swab and the occurrence of Salmonella in caecal contents from the same pig (OR=2.22 CI95% 1.38-3.59) and a negative association with time in singeing units (OR=0.88 CI95% 0.79-0.98).

Impact of Schmallenberg virus on British sheep farms during the 2011/2012 lambing season.

British sheep farmers were invited to complete a questionnaire about the impact of Schmallenberg virus (SBV) on animal health, welfare and their own emotional wellbeing during the 2011-2012 lambing season, through Defra and Farming Industry websites, letters to farmers who had requested SBV laboratory tests and advertisement at Sheep 2012. The 494 responders included SBV confirmed (positive by RT-PCR) (n=76), SBV suspected by farmer (n=140) or SBV not suspected (n=278). Percentage of barren ewes was similar across SBV groups, however, lamb and ewe losses were higher on responder farms where SBV was confirmed or suspected. The median percentages of all lambs born (and lambs born deformed ) that died within one week of birth was 10.4 per cent (5.5 per cent), 7.0 per cent (2.9 per cent) and 5.3 per cent (0 per cent), respectively, on SBV confirmed, suspected and not suspected farms (P<0.001). Eight to 16 per cent of SBV confirmed or suspected farms reported lamb mortality of ≥40 per cent. Farmer perceived impact was greater where SBV was confirmed or suspected (P<0.001): 25 per cent reported a high impact on emotional wellbeing (4 per cent of SBV not suspected), 13 per cent reported a high impact on flock welfare and financial performance and 6 per cent were less likely to farm sheep next year because of SBV (<2 per cent in SBV not suspected). Overall, SBV impact has been large relative to reported sheep loss.

Home blood pressure monitoring, secure electronic messaging and medication intensification for improving hypertension control: a mediation analysis.

OBJECTIVE: We evaluated the role of home monitoring, communication with pharmacists, medication intensification, medication adherence and lifestyle factors in contributing to the effectiveness of an intervention to improve blood pressure control in patients with uncontrolled essential hypertension. METHODS: We performed a mediation analysis of a published randomized trial based on the Chronic Care Model delivered over a secure patient website from June 2005 to December 2007. Study arms analyzed included usual care with a home blood pressure monitor and usual care with home blood pressure monitor and web-based pharmacist care. Mediator measures included secure messaging and telephone encounters; home blood pressure monitoring; medications intensification and adherence and lifestyle factors. Overall fidelity to the Chronic Care Model was assessed with the Patient Assessment of Chronic Care (PACIC) instrument. The primary outcome was percent of participants with blood pressure (BP) <140/90 mm Hg. RESULTS: At 12 months follow-up, patients in the web-based pharmacist care group were more likely to have BP <140/90 mm Hg (55%) compared to patients in the group with home blood pressure monitors only (37%) (p = 0.001). Home blood pressure monitoring accounted for 30.3% of the intervention effect, secure electronic messaging accounted for 96%, and medication intensification for 29.3%. Medication adherence and self-report of fruit and vegetable intake and weight change were not different between the two study groups. The PACIC score accounted for 22.0 % of the main intervention effect. CONCLUSIONS: The effect of web-based pharmacist care on improved blood pressure control was explained in part through a combination of home blood pressure monitoring, secure messaging, and antihypertensive medication intensification.

Investigation into sampling strategies in response to potential outbreaks of low pathogenicity notifiable avian influenza initiated in commercial duck holdings in Great Britain.

The aim of this study was to evaluate potential sampling strategies for detection of infected flocks that could be applied during an outbreak of low pathogenicity notifiable avian influenza (LPNAI) initiated in duck holdings, following initial detection. A simulation model of avian influenza virus transmission and spread within and between holdings, respectively, was used to predict the impact on the size and duration of an outbreak of (i) changing the tracing window within which premises that might be the source of infection or that may have been infected by the index premises were sampled and (ii) changing the number of birds sampled in the flock being tested. It has shown that there is potential benefit in increasing the tracing window in terms of reducing the likelihood of a large outbreak. It has also shown that there is comparatively little benefit from increasing the number of birds sampled per flock.

Epidemiological perspectives on West Nile virus surveillance in wild birds in Great Britain.

West Nile virus (WNV) is a zoonotic arthropod-borne pathogen with continued geographical expansion in Europe. We present and evaluate data on the temporal, spatial and bird species focus of the WNV surveillance programme in dead wild birds in Great Britain (2002-2009). During this period all bird samples tested negative for WNV. Eighty-two per cent of the 2072 submissions occurred during the peak period of vector activity with 53% tested during April-July before human and equine infection would be expected. Samples were received from every county, but there was significant geographical clustering (nearest neighbour index=0·23, P<0·001). Over 240 species were represented, with surveillance more likely to detect WNV in resident bird species (92% of submissions) than migrants (8%). Evidence indicates that widespread avian mortality is not generally a reported feature of WNV in Europe and hence additional activities other than dead bird surveillance may maximize the ability to detect WNV circulation before the onset of human and equine infections.

Descriptive and social network analysis of pig transport data recorded by quality assured pig farms in the UK.

The aim of this study was to examine farm-to-farm pig movement connections, and the usage of hauliers and abattoirs, for farms in the United Kingdom (UK), to determine the interconnectivity of the pig farm network and the implications this may have for the transmission and control of Salmonella, which was chosen as an example of an important endemic disease. Data were collected from three Quality Assurance Schemes on the use of abattoirs and livestock hauliers by commercial pig farms, and the supply of pigs to and from farms. The observed dataset had considerable variability in the number of direct (farm-to-farm) and indirect (via hauliers or abattoirs) connections between each farm over a 12-month period. The use of multiple hauliers and abattoirs by many farms resulted in considerable interconnectivity between farms due to these indirect routes. The network displayed a higher level of clustering, and short network distances between farms, than that shown by equivalent randomly generated datasets, indicating that infectious diseases might transmit quickly amongst farms but within certain clusters of farms, thus limiting the total number of farms affected. This structure and the occurrence of multiple indirect routes between many pairs of farms (via pig movements to other interconnected farms or from hauliers used by both farms), may indicate that targeting surveillance and controls on those farms with high network centrality characteristics (degree, betweenness) alone would not prove effective. Encouraging all farms within the network to reduce the number of connections might be a useful way of reducing Salmonella prevalence as it would reduce the effect of high prevalence on other farms within the network. The analysis also highlighted differences in the connections between geographical regions that were used to discuss the comparatively low Salmonella prevalence in Scotland detected by previous studies. Farms identified as belonging to large companies, as categorised by our analysis, were shown to mostly have movement connections within that company. However, small company farms had connections to farms belonging to large companies or other small companies, demonstrating that they may play an important role in creating links between large companies. The majority of farms in both Scotland and North-East and Eastern England belonged to large companies, and this finding is discussed in relation to how this may help explain the lower Salmonella seroprevalence in these areas. The study provides a first description of the characteristics of the UK pig movement network and the analysis has indicated a number of findings that might have implications for disease transmission and targeting surveillance and control.

An economic evaluation of screening 60- to 70-year-old adults for hearing loss.

BACKGROUND: Hearing loss is common among older adults and has consequences for sufferers, families and society, but there is substantial unmet need for intervention. Screening could expedite intervention and improve outcomes. METHODS: We use Markov models to estimate the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of potential screening programmes compared with current provision (GP-referral), from a health service perspective. Alternative options are investigated through scenario analysis. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses are undertaken. RESULTS: All modelled screens are cost-effective and reduce unmet need for hearing aids. The most cost-effective option identified is a one-stage audiometric screen for bilateral hearing loss ≥30 dB hearing level (HL) at age 60, repeated at ages 65 and 70. This option has an ICER of £1461 compared to GP-referral and would mean an additional 15 437 adults benefiting from hearing intervention per 100 000 population aged 60. The cost-effectiveness acceptability curve shows that screening is more cost-effective than GP-referral provided a Quality Adjusted Life Year is valued at £2000 or more. CONCLUSIONS: Adult hearing screening would provide a cost-effective way to improve quality of life for older adults. We recommend piloting an audiometric screen offered to all adults age 60, 65 and 70 years to identify bilateral hearing loss of at least 30 dB HL.

Porcine circovirus type 2 infection before and during an outbreak of postweaning multisystemic wasting syndrome on a pig farm in the UK.

The presence of porcine circovirus type 2 (PCV-2) and other pathogens before and during an outbreak of postweaning multisystemic wasting syndrome (PWMS) in pigs is evaluated in this study. At the time of the outbreak on a large commercial pig farm in the UK, serum samples and data were collected in two independent on-going research projects, one in weaned pigs and the other in sows. Serum samples of growing pigs and sows were PCV-2-antibody and PCR positive before and during the PMWS outbreak. Upon sequencing, PCV-2 isolates collected before the outbreak were identified as PCV-2a, and isolates collected during the outbreak were identified as PCV-2b, suggesting a shift of PCV-2 genotypes present on the farm. Pigs in the weaner study were from sows originating from different breeders and an association of sow origin and PCV-2 serostatus in offspring was found. Further, pigs had higher odds to be PCV-2 antigen positive if the sow was PCV-2 antibody positive around farrowing, the sow was of higher parity, and were less likely to test antigen positive if the sow was sourced from a particular breeder. The findings of this study highlight the potential role of the immune status of the sow on the occurrence of PMWS.

Case-control study of cases of bovine spongiform encephalopathy born after July 31, 1996 (BARB cases) in Great Britain.

This paper reports the results of a case-control study of the bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) cases born in Great Britain after the statutory reinforcement of the ban (BARB) on the feeding of mammalian-derived meat and bone meal on 31 July 1996. A total of 499 suspect clinical cases of BSE, born after 31 July 1996, and reported negative by July 31, 1996 and were compared with the set of 164 confirmed Great BARB cases in Great Britain detected by both passive and active surveillance. Animal-level risk factors (age and type of feed offered) and herd-level risk factors (herd size and type, number of prereinforced feed ban BSE cases born on the holding, the presence of other domestic species and waste management) were obtained for the analysis. BARB cases were 2.56 times (95 per cent CI 1.29 to 5.07) more likely to be exposed to homemix or a combination of homemix and proprietary feeds were 0.59 times (95 per cent CI 0.50 to 0.69) as less likely to be exposed to the unit increases in the number of prereinforced feed ban BSE cases diagnosed on the natal holding. A supplementary spatial analysis of these cases revealed three areas of excess BARB density: Northwest and Southwest of Wales and Northeast of Scotland.

Evaluation of animal and public health surveillance systems: a systematic review.

Disease surveillance programmes ought to be evaluated regularly to ensure they provide valuable information in an efficient manner. Evaluation of human and animal health surveillance programmes around the world is currently not standardized and therefore inconsistent. The aim of this systematic review was to review surveillance system attributes and the methods used for their assessment, together with the strengths and weaknesses of existing frameworks for evaluating surveillance in animal health, public health and allied disciplines. Information from 99 articles describing the evaluation of 101 surveillance systems was examined. A wide range of approaches for assessing 23 different system attributes was identified although most evaluations addressed only one or two attributes and comprehensive evaluations were uncommon. Surveillance objectives were often not stated in the articles reviewed and so the reasons for choosing certain attributes for assessment were not always apparent. This has the potential to introduce misleading results in surveillance evaluation. Due to the wide range of system attributes that may be assessed, methods should be explored which collapse these down into a small number of grouped characteristics by focusing on the relationships between attributes and their links to the objectives of the surveillance system and the evaluation. A generic and comprehensive evaluation framework could then be developed consisting of a limited number of common attributes together with several sets of secondary attributes which could be selected depending on the disease or range of diseases under surveillance and the purpose of the surveillance. Economic evaluation should be an integral part of the surveillance evaluation process. This would provide a significant benefit to decision-makers who often need to make choices based on limited or diminishing resources.

Survey of Salmonella prevalence on commercial turkey breeding and fattening farms in the UK in 2006 to 2007.

A total of 29 breeding turkey holdings and 317 fattening turkey holdings were sampled between October 2006 and September 2007 in order to establish the baseline prevalence of Salmonella in turkeys in the UK. The weighted holding level Salmonella prevalence was found to be 20.1 per cent (95 per cent confidence interval [CI] 8.6 to 40.3 per cent) in breeding turkeys and 37.7 per cent (95 per cent CI 33.4 to 42.3 per cent) in fattening turkeys. For breeding turkeys, a weighted flock-level prevalence, as more than one flock per holding was sampled, was estimated at 7.1 per cent (95 per cent CI 3.2 to 14.8 per cent). A total of 13 different serovars were identified in the survey. The most frequent serovar in both turkey flock classes was Salmonella Kottbus, which was found on two breeding holdings and 63 of the fattening holdings giving weighted prevalences of 10.4 per cent (95 per cent CI 2.6 to 34.1 per cent) and 23.0 per cent (95 per cent CI 19.3 to 27.3 per cent), respectively. On breeding holdings, a single isolate of Salmonella Typhimurium, identified as DT12 (weighted prevalence 3.5 per cent [95 per cent CI 0.7 to 15.8 per cent] [holding], 0.7 per cent [95 per cent CI 0.1 to 3.7 per cent] [flock)], was found. On fattening holdings, there were 55 isolates of S Typhimurium from 16 holdings, giving a weighted prevalence of this serovar of 5.4 per cent (95 per cent CI 3.6 to 8.0 per cent). There were no isolates of Salmonella serovars Enteritidis, Hadar, Infantis or Virchow.

Salmonella serovars and antimicrobial resistance patterns on a sample of high seroprevalence pig farms in England and Wales (2003-2008).

Following the introduction of a national abattoir-based monitoring programme for Salmonella in pigs, advisory visits were made to pig farms in England and Wales with high Salmonella seroprevalence assessed by muscle tissue fluid (meat juice) ELISA. Samples (n = 15 790), including pooled pen floor faeces (n = 12 136), were collected for Salmonella culture from 296 farms, between October 2003 and February 2008. Salmonella was isolated from 4489 (28%) of all samples collected, including 3301 (27%) of pooled pen floor faecal samples, from 270 (91%) of farms visited. Salmonella Typhimurium and S. Derby were the most prevalent serovars, representing 64% and 16% of isolates serotyped, respectively. The main phage types of S. Typhimurium identified were U288 and DT193. Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) was seen in 92% of isolates tested, with the highest frequencies of resistance occurring to tetracyclines (T), sulphonamide compounds (SU), ampicillin (AM), sulphamethoxazole/trimethoprim (SXT), streptomycin (S) and chloramphenicol (C). Fifty-nine AMR patterns were observed, the most frequent of these being T, AM, SXT, C, S, SU, seen in 35% of isolates tested. Multi-drug resistance was commonly found, with 67% of isolates submitted for AMR testing showing resistance to between four and nine antimicrobials.

Application of variable number of tandem repeat analysis to track Salmonella enterica ssp. enterica serovar Typhimurium infection of pigs reared on three British farms through the production cycle to the abattoir.

AIMS: This study investigated the diversity and persistence of Salmonella strains through the pork finishing cycle, from the farm into the abattoir. METHODS AND RESULTS: Isolates from four batches of finishers, from farm to abattoir, were used. Salmonella Typhimurium isolates were subjected to molecular typing using pulsed-field gel electrophoresis and variable number of tandem repeat analysis. The results demonstrated that infection was transferred from the farm to the abattoir. Within the abattoir, infection from individual pigs contaminated the exterior of the carcass and pigs exposed to Salmonella in the lairage were infected. CONCLUSIONS: Salmonella can be introduced at various points in the pig production and slaughter process. Carcass contamination may arise from infection on farm and exposure in the lairage and abattoir environment. Pigs could be contaminated by previous batches of pigs while in lairage or during the dressing process. Salmonella infection on farms is dynamic with multiple serovars present from different sources. SIGNIFICANCE AND IMPACT OF THE STUDY: Molecular typing methods facilitated the tracing of Salm. Typhimurium through the production cycle and differentiated some farm-acquired from abattoir-acquired strains. The findings emphasize the importance of integrated control strategies along the pork food chain.

Does diet cost mediate the relation between socioeconomic position and diet quality?

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Socioeconomic disparities in diet quality are well established. This study tested the hypothesis that such disparities are mediated, in part, by diet cost. SUBJECTS/METHODS: The Seattle Obesity Study (S.O.S) was a cross-sectional study based on a representative sample of 1266 adults of King County, WA, conducted in 2008-09. Demographic and socioeconomic variables were obtained through telephone survey. Income and education were used as indicators of socioeconomic position. Dietary intake data were obtained using a food frequency questionnaire (FFQ). Diet cost was calculated based on retail prices for FFQ component foods. Energy density (KJ/g) and mean adequacy ratio (MAR) were used as two indices of overall diet quality. RESULTS: Higher income and education were each associated with lower energy density and higher MAR scores, adjusting for covariates. Higher income and education were also associated with higher energy adjusted diet cost. Higher quality diets were in turn associated with higher diet costs. All these associations were significant (P<0.0001). In formal mediation analyses, diet cost significantly mediated the pathway between income and diet quality measures, adjusting for covariates (P<0.05 each). Further, income-diet cost-diet quality pathway was found to be moderated by education level. CONCLUSIONS: The social gradient in diet quality may be explained by diet cost. Strategies to improve diet quality among lower socioeconomic strata may need to take food prices and diet cost along with nutrition education into account.