Post-diagnosis adiposity, physical activity, sedentary behaviour, dietary factors, supplement use and colorectal cancer prognosis: Global Cancer Update Programme (CUP Global) summary of evidence grading.

Based on the World Cancer Research Fund Global Cancer Update Programme, we performed systematic reviews and meta-analyses to investigate the association of post-diagnosis adiposity, physical activity, sedentary behaviour, and dietary factors with colorectal cancer prognosis. We searched PubMed and Embase until 28th February, 2022. An independent expert committee and expert panel graded the quality of evidence. A total of 167 unique publications were reviewed, and all but five were observational studies. The quality of the evidence was graded conservatively due to the high risk of several biases. There was evidence of non-linearity in the associations between body mass index and colorectal cancer prognosis. The associations appeared reverse J-shaped, and the quality of this evidence was graded as limited (likelihood of causality: limited-no conclusion). The evidence on recreational physical activity and lower risk of all-cause mortality (relative risk [RR] highest vs. lowest: 0.69, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.62-0.77) and recurrence/disease-free survival (RR: 0.80, 95% CI: 0.70-0.92) was graded as limited-suggestive. There was limited-suggestive evidence for the associations between healthy dietary and/or lifestyle patterns (including diets that comprised plant-based foods), intake of whole grains and coffee with lower risk of all-cause mortality, and between unhealthy dietary patterns and intake of sugary drinks with higher risk of all-cause mortality. The evidence for other exposures on colorectal cancer outcomes was sparse and graded as limited-no conclusion. Analyses were conducted excluding cancer patients with metastases without substantial changes in the findings. Well-designed intervention and cohort studies are needed to support the development of lifestyle recommendations for colorectal cancer patients.

Post-diagnosis physical activity and sedentary behaviour and colorectal cancer prognosis: A Global Cancer Update Programme (CUP Global) systematic literature review and meta-analysis.

Low physical activity and high sedentary behaviour have been clearly linked with colorectal cancer development, yet data on their potential role in colorectal cancer survival is limited. Better characterisation of these relationships is needed for the development of post-diagnosis physical activity and sedentary behaviour guidance for colorectal cancer survivors. We searched PubMed and Embase through 28 February 2022 for studies assessing post-diagnosis physical activity, and/or sedentary behaviour in relation to all-cause and cause-specific mortality and recurrence after colorectal cancer diagnosis. Total and recreational physical activity were assessed overall and by frequency, duration, intensity, and volume using categorical, linear, and non-linear dose-response random-effects meta-analyses. The Global Cancer Update Programme (CUP Global) independent Expert Committee on Cancer Survivorship and Expert Panel interpreted and graded the likelihood of causality. We identified 16 observational studies on 82,220 non-overlapping patients from six countries. Physical activity was consistently inversely associated with colorectal cancer morbidity and mortality outcomes, with 13%-60% estimated reductions in risk. Sedentary behaviour was positively associated with all-cause mortality. The evidence had methodological limitations including potential confounding, selection bias and reverse causation, coupled with a limited number of studies for most associations. The CUP Global Expert panel concluded limited-suggestive evidence for recreational physical activity with all-cause mortality and cancer recurrence. Total physical activity and its specific domains and dimensions, and sedentary behaviour were all graded as limited-no conclusion for all outcomes. Future research should focus on randomised trials, while observational studies should obtain objective and repeated physical activity measures and better adjustment for confounders.

Post-diagnosis dietary factors, supplement use and colorectal cancer prognosis: A Global Cancer Update Programme (CUP Global) systematic literature review and meta-analysis.

The role of diet in colorectal cancer prognosis is not well understood and specific lifestyle recommendations are lacking. We searched for randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and longitudinal observational studies on post-diagnosis dietary factors, supplement use and colorectal cancer survival outcomes in PubMed and Embase from inception until 28th February 2022. Random-effects dose-response meta-analyses were conducted when at least three studies had sufficient information. The evidence was interpreted and graded by the CUP Global independent Expert Committee on Cancer Survivorship and Expert Panel. Five RCTs and 35 observational studies were included (30,242 cases, over 8700 all-cause and 2100 colorectal cancer deaths, 3700 progression, recurrence, or disease-free events). Meta-analyses, including 3-10 observational studies each, were conducted for: whole grains, nuts/peanuts, red and processed meat, dairy products, sugary drinks, artificially sweetened beverages, coffee, alcohol, dietary glycaemic load/index, insulin load/index, marine omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids, supplemental calcium, circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25[OH]D) and all-cause mortality; for alcohol, supplemental calcium, circulating 25(OH)D and colorectal cancer-specific mortality; and for circulating 25(OH)D and recurrence/disease-free survival. The overall evidence was graded as 'limited'. The inverse associations between healthy dietary and/or lifestyle patterns (including diets that comprised plant-based foods), whole grains, total, caffeinated, or decaffeinated coffee and all-cause mortality and the positive associations between unhealthy dietary patterns, sugary drinks and all-cause mortality provided 'limited-suggestive' evidence. All other exposure-outcome associations provided 'limited-no conclusion' evidence. Additional, well-conducted cohort studies and carefully designed RCTs are needed to develop specific lifestyle recommendations for colorectal cancer survivors.

Post-diagnosis adiposity and colorectal cancer prognosis: A Global Cancer Update Programme (CUP Global) systematic literature review and meta-analysis.

The adiposity influence on colorectal cancer prognosis remains poorly characterised. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis on post-diagnosis adiposity measures (body mass index [BMI], waist circumference, waist-to-hip ratio, weight) or their changes and colorectal cancer outcomes. PubMed and Embase were searched through 28 February 2022. Random-effects meta-analyses were conducted when at least three studies had sufficient information. The quality of evidence was interpreted and graded by the Global Cancer Update Programme (CUP Global) independent Expert Committee on Cancer Survivorship and Expert Panel. We reviewed 124 observational studies (85 publications). Meta-analyses were possible for BMI and all-cause mortality, colorectal cancer-specific mortality, and cancer recurrence/disease-free survival. Non-linear meta-analysis indicated a reverse J-shaped association between BMI and colorectal cancer outcomes (nadir at BMI 28 kg/m2). The highest risk, relative to the nadir, was observed at both ends of the BMI distribution (18 and 38 kg/m2), namely 60% and 23% higher risk for all-cause mortality; 95% and 26% for colorectal cancer-specific mortality; and 37% and 24% for cancer recurrence/disease-free survival, respectively. The higher risk with low BMI was attenuated in secondary analyses of RCTs (compared to cohort studies), among studies with longer follow-up, and in women suggesting potential methodological limitations and/or altered physiological state. Descriptively synthesised studies on other adiposity-outcome associations of interest were limited in number and methodological quality. All the associations were graded as limited (likelihood of causality: no conclusion) due to potential methodological limitations (reverse causation, confounding, selection bias). Additional well-designed observational studies and interventional trials are needed to provide further clarification.

Assessment of body composition in breast cancer patients: concordance between transverse computed tomography analysis at the fourth thoracic and third lumbar vertebrae.

Introduction: Specific body composition markers derived from L3 axial computed tomography (CT) images predict clinical cancer outcomes, including chemotherapy toxicity and survival. However, this method is only applicable to those undergoing lumbar (L3) CT scanning, which is not universally conducted in early breast cancer cases. This study aimed to evaluate CT analysis at T4 as a feasible alternative marker of body composition in breast cancer. Method: All patients participated in the Investigating Outcomes from Breast Cancer: Correlating Genetic, Immunological, and Nutritional (BeGIN) Predictors observational cohort study (REC reference number: 14/EE/1297). Staging chest-abdomen-pelvic CT scan images from 24 women diagnosed with early breast cancer at University Hospital Southampton were analysed. Adipose tissue, skeletal muscle, and muscle attenuation were measured from the transverse CT slices' cross-sectional area (CSA) at T4 and L3. Adipose tissue and skeletal muscle area measurements were adjusted for height. Spearman's rank correlation coefficient analysis was used to determine concordance between body composition measurements using CT analysis at L3 and T4 regions. Results: Derived estimates for total adipose tissue, subcutaneous adipose tissue, and intramuscular adipose tissue mass following adjustment for height were highly concordant when determined from CSAs of CT slices at T4 and L3 (Rs = 0.821, p < 0.001; Rs = 0.816, p < 0.001; and Rs = 0.830, p < 0.001). In this cohort, visceral adipose tissue (VAT) and skeletal muscle estimates following height adjustment were less concordant when measured by CT at T4 and L3 (Rs = 0.477, p = 0.039 and Rs = 0.578, p = 0.003). The assessment of muscle attenuation was also highly concordant when measured by CT at T4 and L3 (Rs = 0.840, p < 0.001). Discussion: These results suggest that the CT analysis at T4 and L3 provides highly concordant markers for total adipose, subcutaneous adipose, and intramuscular adipose estimation, but not VAT, in this breast cancer population. High concordance between T4 and L3 was also found when assessing skeletal muscle attenuation. Lower concordance was observed for the estimates of skeletal muscle area, potentially explained by differences in the quantity and proportions of axial and appendicular muscle between the thorax and abdomen. Future studies will determine the value of T4 metrics as predictive tools for clinical outcomes in breast cancer.

The PARTNER trial of neoadjuvant olaparib with chemotherapy in triple-negative breast cancer.

PARTNER is a prospective, phase II-III, randomized controlled clinical trial that recruited patients with triple-negative breast cancer1,2, who were germline BRCA1 and BRCA2 wild type3. Here we report the results of the trial. Patients (n = 559) were randomized on a 1:1 basis to receive neoadjuvant carboplatin-paclitaxel with or without 150 mg olaparib twice daily, on days 3 to 14, of each of four cycles (gap schedule olaparib, research arm) followed by three cycles of anthracycline-based chemotherapy before surgery. The primary end point was pathologic complete response (pCR)4, and secondary end points included event-free survival (EFS) and overall survival (OS)5. pCR was achieved in 51% of patients in the research arm and 52% in the control arm (P = 0.753). Estimated EFS at 36 months in the research and control arms was 80% and 79% (log-rank P > 0.9), respectively; OS was 90% and 87.2% (log-rank P = 0.8), respectively. In patients with pCR, estimated EFS at 36 months was 90%, and in those with non-pCR it was 70% (log-rank P < 0.001), and OS was 96% and 83% (log-rank P < 0.001), respectively. Neoadjuvant olaparib did not improve pCR rates, EFS or OS when added to carboplatin-paclitaxel and anthracycline-based chemotherapy in patients with triple-negative breast cancer who were germline BRCA1 and BRCA2 wild type. ClinicalTrials.gov ID: NCT03150576 .

The MARECA (national study of management of breast cancer locoregional recurrence and oncological outcomes) study: protocol for a prospective, multicentre cohort study.

Background: Despite a UK 5-year breast cancer survival rate of 86.6%, patients may develop breast cancer recurrence within the same breast after breast conserving surgery, as well as in the remaining skin or chest wall after mastectomy or in the ipsilateral lymph glands. These recurrences, collectively termed locoregional recurrence (LRR), occur in around 8% of patients within 10 years of their original diagnosis. Currently, there is a lack of robust information on the presentation and prevalence of LRR with no UK-specific clinical guidelines available for the optimal management of this patient group. Additionally, there is a need to identify patterns of LRR presentation and their progression, which will enable prognostic factors to be determined. This will subsequently enable the tailoring of treatment and improve patient outcome. Methods: The MARECA study is a prospective, multicentre cohort study recruiting patients diagnosed with breast cancer LRR +/- associated distant metastases. Over 50 UK breast units are participating in the study with the aim of recruiting at least 500 patients over a recruitment period of 24 months. The data collected will detail the tumour pathology, imaging results, surgical treatment, radiotherapy and systemic therapy of the primary and recurrent breast cancer. Study follow-up will be for up to 5 years following LRR diagnosis to determine subsequent oncological outcomes and evaluate potential prognostic factors. Discussion: This study will address the current knowledge gap and identify subgroups of patients who have less successful treatment outcomes. The results will determine the current management of LRR and the prognosis of patients diagnosed with breast cancer LRR +/- distant metastases in the UK, with the aim of establishing best practice and informing future national guidelines. The results will direct future research and inform the design of additional interventional trials and translational studies.

Olaparib and Ceralasertib (AZD6738) in Patients with Triple-Negative Advanced Breast Cancer: Results from Cohort E of the plasmaMATCH Trial (CRUK/15/010).

PURPOSE: Approximately 10% to 15% of triple-negative breast cancers (TNBC) have deleterious mutations in BRCA1 and BRCA2 and may benefit from PARP inhibitor treatment. PARP inhibitors may also increase exogenous replication stress and thereby increase sensitivity to inhibitors of ataxia telangiectasia and Rad3-related (ATR) protein. This phase II study examined the activity of the combination of PARP inhibitor, olaparib, and ATR inhibitor, ceralasertib (AZD6738), in patients with advanced TNBC. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Patients with TNBC on most recent biopsy who had received 1 or 2 lines of chemotherapy for advanced disease or had relapsed within 12 months of (neo)adjuvant chemotherapy were eligible. Treatment was olaparib 300 mg twice a day continuously and celarasertib 160 mg on days 1-7 on a 28-day cycle until disease progression. The primary endpoint was confirmed objective response rate (ORR). Tissue and plasma biomarker analyses were preplanned to identify predictors of response. RESULTS: 70 evaluable patients were enrolled. Germline BRCA1/2 mutations were present in 10 (14%) patients and 3 (4%) patients had somatic BRCA mutations. The confirmed ORR was 12/70; 17.1% (95% confidence interval, 10.4-25.5). Responses were observed in patients without germline or somatic BRCA1/2 mutations, including patients with mutations in other homologous recombination repair genes and tumors with functional homologous recombination deficiency by RAD51 foci. CONCLUSIONS: The response rate to olaparib and ceralasertib did not meet prespecified criteria for activity in the overall evaluable population, but responses were observed in patients who would not be expected to respond to olaparib monotherapy.

Global funding for cancer research between 2016 and 2020: a content analysis of public and philanthropic investments.

BACKGROUND: Cancer is a leading cause of disease burden globally, with more than 19·3 million cases and 10 million deaths recorded in 2020. Research is crucial to understanding the determinants of cancer and the effects of interventions, and to improving outcomes. We aimed to analyse global patterns of public and philanthropic investment in cancer research. METHODS: In this content analysis, we searched the UberResearch Dimensions database and Cancer Research UK data for human cancer research funding awards from public and philanthropic funders between Jan 1, 2016, and Dec 31, 2020. Included award types were project and programme grants, fellowships, pump priming, and pilot projects. Awards focused on operational delivery of cancer care were excluded. Awards were categorised by cancer type, cross-cutting research theme, and research phase. Funding amount was compared with global burden of specific cancers, measured by disability-adjusted life-years, years lived with disability, and mortality using data from the Global Burden of Disease study. FINDINGS: We identified 66 388 awards with total investment of about US$24·5 billion in 2016-20. Investment decreased year-on-year, with the largest drop observed between 2019 and 2020. Pre-clinical research received 73·5% of the funding across the 5 years ($18 billion), phase 1-4 clinical trials received 7·4% ($1·8 billion), public health research received 9·4% ($2·3 billion), and cross-disciplinary research received 5·0% ($1·2 billion). General cancer research received the largest investment ($7·1 billion, 29·2% of the total funding). The most highly funded cancer types were breast cancer ($2·7 billion [11·2%]), haematological cancer ($2·3 billion [9·4%]), and brain cancer ($1·3 billion [5·5%]). Analysis by cross-cutting theme revealed that 41·2% of investment ($9·6 billion) went to cancer biology research, 19·6% ($4·6 billion) to drug treatment research, and 12·1% ($2·8 billion) to immuno-oncology. 1·4% of the total funding ($0·3 billion) was spent on surgery research, 2·8% ($0·7 billion) was spent on radiotherapy research, and 0·5% ($0·1 billion) was spent on global health studies. INTERPRETATION: Cancer research funding must be aligned with the global burden of cancer with more equitable funding for cancer research in low-income and middle-income countries (which account for 80% of cancer burden), both to support research relevant to these settings, and build research capacity within these countries. There is an urgent need to prioritise investment in surgery and radiotherapy research given their primacy in the treatment of many solid tumours. FUNDING: None.

Risk-reducing surgery for individuals with cancer-predisposing germline pathogenic variants and no personal cancer history: a review of current UK guidelines.

Identifying healthy carriers of germline pathogenic variants in high penetrance cancer susceptibility genes offers the potential for risk-reducing surgery. The NHS England National Genomic Test Directory offers germline and somatic testing to patients with certain cancers or rare and inherited diseases, or, in some cases, to their relatives. This review summarises current UK guidelines for risk-reducing surgical interventions available for individuals with no personal history of cancer, who are determined to carry germline pathogenic variants. An electronic literature search of NICE guidelines and PubMed citable articles was performed. NICE guidelines are available for bilateral mastectomy and are currently in development for risk-reducing bilateral salpingo-oophorectomy. Guidelines developed with affiliation to, or through relevant British Surgical Societies or international consensus, are available for risk-reducing hysterectomy, polypectomy, gastrectomy, and thyroidectomy. There is a disparity in the development and distribution of national guidelines for interventions amongst tumour types. Whilst we are focusing on UK guidelines, we anticipate they will be relevant much more generally and so of interest to a wider audience including where there are no national guidelines to refer to. We suggest that, as genetic testing becomes rapidly more accessible, guideline development for interventions should be more closely aligned to those for testing.

Obesity Is Associated with Immunometabolic Changes in Adipose Tissue That May Drive Treatment Resistance in Breast Cancer: Immune-Metabolic Reprogramming and Novel Therapeutic Strategies.

White adipose tissue (WAT) represents an endocrinologically and immunologically active tissue whose primary role is energy storage and homeostasis. Breast WAT is involved in the secretion of hormones and proinflammatory molecules that are associated with breast cancer development and progression. The role of adiposity and systemic inflammation in immune responses and resistance to anti-cancer treatment in breast cancer (BC) patients is still not clear. Metformin has demonstrated antitumorigenic properties both in pre-clinical and clinical studies. Nevertheless, its immunomodulating properties in BC are largely unknown. This review aims to evaluate the emerging evidence on the crosstalk between adiposity and the immune-tumour microenvironment in BC, its progression and treatment resistance, and the immunometabolic role of metformin in BC. Adiposity, and by extension subclinical inflammation, are associated with metabolic dysfunction and changes in the immune-tumour microenvironment in BC. In oestrogen receptor positive (ER+) breast tumours, it is proposed that these changes are mediated via a paracrine interaction between macrophages and preadipocytes, leading to elevated aromatase expression and secretion of pro-inflammatory cytokines and adipokines in the breast tissue in patients who are obese or overweight. In HER2+ breast tumours, WAT inflammation has been shown to be associated with resistance to trastuzumab mediated via MAPK or PI3K pathways. Furthermore, adipose tissue in patients with obesity is associated with upregulation of immune checkpoints on T-cells that is partially mediated via immunomodulatory effects of leptin and has been paradoxically associated with improved responses to immunotherapy in several cancers. Metformin may play a role in the metabolic reprogramming of tumour-infiltrating immune cells that are dysregulated by systemic inflammation. In conclusion, evidence suggests that body composition and metabolic status are associated with patient outcomes. To optimise patient stratification and personalisation of treatment, prospective studies are required to evaluate the role of body composition and metabolic parameters in metabolic immune reprogramming with and without immunotherapy in patients with BC.

Bridging pre-surgical endocrine therapy for breast cancer during the COVID-19 pandemic: outcomes from the B-MaP-C study.

PURPOSE: The B-MaP-C study investigated changes to breast cancer care that were necessitated by the COVID-19 pandemic. Here we present a follow-up analysis of those patients commenced on bridging endocrine therapy (BrET), whilst they were awaiting surgery due to reprioritisation of resources. METHODS: This multicentre, multinational cohort study recruited 6045 patients from the UK, Spain and Portugal during the peak pandemic period (Feb-July 2020). Patients on BrET were followed up to investigate the duration of, and response to, BrET. This included changes in tumour size to reflect downstaging potential, and changes in cellular proliferation (Ki67), as a marker of prognosis. RESULTS: 1094 patients were prescribed BrET, over a median period of 53 days (IQR 32-81 days). The majority of patients (95.6%) had strong ER expression (Allred score 7-8/8). Very few patients required expedited surgery, due to lack of response (1.2%) or due to lack of tolerance/compliance (0.8%). There were small reductions in median tumour size after 3 months' treatment duration; median of 4 mm [IQR - 20, 4]. In a small subset of patients (n = 47), a drop in cellular proliferation (Ki67) occurred in 26 patients (55%), from high (Ki67 ≥ 10%) to low (< 10%), with at least one month's duration of BrET. DISCUSSION: This study describes real-world usage of pre-operative endocrine therapy as necessitated by the pandemic. BrET was found to be tolerable and safe. The data support short-term (≤ 3 months) usage of pre-operative endocrine therapy. Longer-term use should be investigated in future trials.

Mainstreaming of genomics in oncology: a nationwide survey of the genomics training needs of UK oncologists.

OBJECTIVE: Genomics is rapidly changing treatment paradigms for cancers, obligating oncologists to have good genomics knowledge. Through this survey, we aimed to assess the current understanding of cancer genomics among UK oncologists. METHODS: We conducted a web-based nation-wide self-assessment survey of the cancer genomics knowledge of UK clinical and medical oncology trainees and consultants. RESULTS: In total, 150 oncologists (81 consultants and 69 trainees) responded, representing 10% of UK oncologists.Formal training in genomics had not been received by 38.7% of oncologists and 92.7% identified a need for additional genomics training.In total, 71.3% self-reported to have good knowledge of defining somatic and germline mutations, falling to 35.3% for understanding principles of gene expression and regulation. Knowledge of cancer-predisposing syndromes was highest for Lynch syndrome (40.7% good knowledge) and lowest for multiple endocrine neoplasia (14.0% good knowledge).Overall, 49.0% of respondents had consented patients for germline testing, but 80.7% reported a lack of training in genetic counselling. CONCLUSION: Large knowledge gaps have been identified through this survey, highlighting the need for incorporation of improved formal training in cancer genomics for consultants and trainees, with an aim to equip oncologists for advances in clinical practice and to take up genetic mainstreaming confidently.

Impact of obesity, lifestyle factors and health interventions on breast cancer survivors.

The incidences of both breast cancer and obesity are rising in the UK. Obesity increases the risk of developing breast cancer in the postmenopausal population and leads to worse outcomes in those of all ages treated for early-stage breast cancer. In this review we explore the multifactorial reasons behind this association and the clinical trial evidence for the benefits of physical activity and dietary interventions in the early and metastatic patient groups. As more people with breast cancer are cured, and those with metastatic disease are living longer, cancer survivorship is becoming increasingly important. Therefore, ensuring the long-term implications of cancer and cancer treatment are addressed is vital. Although there remains a lack of definitive evidence that deliberate weight loss after a diagnosis of breast cancer reduces disease recurrence, a number of studies have reported benefits of weight loss and of physical activity. However, the limited data currently available mean that clinicians remain unclear on the optimal lifestyle advice to give their patients. Further high-quality research is needed to provide this evidence base, which will be required to optimise clinical care and for the commissioning of lifestyle interventions in the UK in breast cancer survivors.

An International Comparison of Presentation, Outcomes and CORONET Predictive Score Performance in Patients with Cancer Presenting with COVID-19 across Different Pandemic Waves.

Patients with cancer have been shown to have increased risk of COVID-19 severity. We previously built and validated the COVID-19 Risk in Oncology Evaluation Tool (CORONET) to predict the likely severity of COVID-19 in patients with active cancer who present to hospital. We assessed the differences in presentation and outcomes of patients with cancer and COVID-19, depending on the wave of the pandemic. We examined differences in features at presentation and outcomes in patients worldwide, depending on the waves of the pandemic: wave 1 D614G (n = 1430), wave 2 Alpha (n = 475), and wave 4 Omicron variant (n = 63, UK and Spain only). The performance of CORONET was evaluated on 258, 48, and 54 patients for each wave, respectively. We found that mortality rates were reduced in subsequent waves. The majority of patients were vaccinated in wave 4, and 94% were treated with steroids if they required oxygen. The stages of cancer and the median ages of patients significantly differed, but features associated with worse COVID-19 outcomes remained predictive and did not differ between waves. The CORONET tool performed well in all waves, with scores in an area under the curve (AUC) of >0.72. We concluded that patients with cancer who present to hospital with COVID-19 have similar features of severity, which remain discriminatory despite differences in variants and vaccination status. Survival improved following the first wave of the pandemic, which may be associated with vaccination and the increased steroid use in those patients requiring oxygen. The CORONET model demonstrated good performance, independent of the SARS-CoV-2 variants.

Establishment of CORONET, COVID-19 Risk in Oncology Evaluation Tool, to Identify Patients With Cancer at Low Versus High Risk of Severe Complications of COVID-19 Disease On Presentation to Hospital.

PURPOSE: Patients with cancer are at increased risk of severe COVID-19 disease, but have heterogeneous presentations and outcomes. Decision-making tools for hospital admission, severity prediction, and increased monitoring for early intervention are critical. We sought to identify features of COVID-19 disease in patients with cancer predicting severe disease and build a decision support online tool, COVID-19 Risk in Oncology Evaluation Tool (CORONET). METHODS: Patients with active cancer (stage I-IV) and laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 disease presenting to hospitals worldwide were included. Discharge (within 24 hours), admission (≥ 24 hours inpatient), oxygen (O2) requirement, and death were combined in a 0-3 point severity scale. Association of features with outcomes were investigated using Lasso regression and Random Forest combined with Shapley Additive Explanations. The CORONET model was then examined in the entire cohort to build an online CORONET decision support tool. Admission and severe disease thresholds were established through pragmatically defined cost functions. Finally, the CORONET model was validated on an external cohort. RESULTS: The model development data set comprised 920 patients, with median age 70 (range 5-99) years, 56% males, 44% females, and 81% solid versus 19% hematologic cancers. In derivation, Random Forest demonstrated superior performance over Lasso with lower mean squared error (0.801 v 0.807) and was selected for development. During validation (n = 282 patients), the performance of CORONET varied depending on the country cohort. CORONET cutoffs for admission and mortality of 1.0 and 2.3 were established. The CORONET decision support tool recommended admission for 95% of patients eventually requiring oxygen and 97% of those who died (94% and 98% in validation, respectively). The specificity for mortality prediction was 92% and 83% in derivation and validation, respectively. Shapley Additive Explanations revealed that National Early Warning Score 2, C-reactive protein, and albumin were the most important features contributing to COVID-19 severity prediction in patients with cancer at time of hospital presentation. CONCLUSION: CORONET, a decision support tool validated in health care systems worldwide, can aid admission decisions and predict COVID-19 severity in patients with cancer.

Prognostic significance of crown-like structures to trastuzumab response in patients with primary invasive HER2 + breast carcinoma.

Obesity can initiate, promote, and maintain systemic inflammation via metabolic reprogramming of macrophages that encircle adipocytes, termed crown-like structures (CLS). In breast cancer the presence of CLS has been correlated to high body mass index (BMI), larger mammary adipocyte size and postmenopausal status. However, the prognostic significance of CLS in HER2 + breast cancer is still unknown. We investigated the prognostic significance of CLS in a cohort of 69 trastuzumab-naïve and 117 adjuvant trastuzumab-treated patients with primary HER2 + breast cancer. Immunohistochemistry of tumour blocks was performed for CLS and correlated to clinical outcomes. CLS were more commonly found at the adipose-tumour border (B-CLS) (64.8% of patients). The presence of multiple B-CLS was associated with reduced time to metastatic disease (TMD) in trastuzumab treated patients with BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2 but not those with BMI < 25 kg/m2. Phenotypic analysis showed the presence of CD32B + B-CLS was strongly correlated to BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2 and reduced TMD in trastuzumab treated patients. Multivariable analysis suggested that CD32B + B-CLS positive tumours are associated with shorter TMD in trastuzumab-treated patients (HR 4.2 [95%CI, (1.01-17.4). This study indicates adipose-tumour border crown-like structures that are CD32B + potentially represent a biomarker for improved personalisation of treatment in HER2-overexpressed breast cancer patients.